Stat of the Day: Alabama Sacking the Quarterback
by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Dec 31, 2009 10:10 AM CST
in Texas Longhorns Football
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Print"Nearly two centuries after Mark Twain warned of "lies, damned lies, and statistics," our beloved Will Muschamp has been known to growl that "stats are for losers." Their points are well taken, but I suspect if you pressed both geniuses on the issue, you could and would squeeze out an admission about statistics' utility... properly applied. Numbers can tell lots of stories, some more complete than others."
-- Peter Bean, from a previous Stat of the Day
There's no question that Alabama has an extremely effective defense. Likewise, there's no question that Saban's bunch is so effective as to rank among the top several defenses in college football. Texas belongs in the discussion. So does Nebraska. TCU probably has an argument, as did Florida, before a certain high-profile collapse. It's an elite bunch.
There's no question about Alabama's place among the elite because a quick glance at the numbers tells the tale. Some of those will be saved for later posts, but suffice it to say that they are eye opening and representative of the unit's considerable overall strength. As coverage of Alabama ramps up in the next several days as I finish and post a series of thoughts about Alabama based on the Tennessee, Auburn, and LSU games -- Snap Shots, an Anatomy or two, as well as some more stats, several things will become clear about the vaunted Tide defense. Most glarlingly, basic statistical research indicates that it's hard to find much on tape even in close games that shows any major or well, glaring, flaws with the unit. Small things here and there, but few and far between.
Without getting into too deep of a discussion about the macrocosm here (Alabama's overall defensive success), this post is really about a microcosm (how often Alabama brought down the quarterback for a sack), a specific statistic that's telling about how the Alabama defense has played this season. A statistic that does provide insight, does provide value -- heck, it might not even be for losers...
2009 Alabama Defense: Sacks
How were those sacks distributed? Is there any trend from the sack numbers? From the opponents that they came against? From how they were distributed among individual players? Do the sacks indicate that there are "three Suhs" along the Alabama defensive line as Mack Brown commented in his press conference. By the way, taking that statement to the logical conclusion, Colt McCoy will be sacked about half the time when he drops back to pass in the national championship game, leading to somewhere around18 sacks? As it turns out, not likely.
Date Opponent Surf. Result Sacks/Sack Yards
| 09/05/09 | + 12 Virginia Tech | Turf | W 34-24 | 5.0 | 38 |
| 09/12/09 | Florida Int'l | Grass | W 40-14 | 5.0 | 38 |
| 09/19/09 | North Texas | Grass | W 53-7 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 09/26/09 | Arkansas | Grass | W 35-7 | 3.0 | 28 |
| 10/03/09 | @ Kentucky | Grass | W 38-20 | 2.0 | 10 |
| 10/10/09 | @ Mississippi | Turf | W 22-3 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 10/17/09 | South Carolina | Grass | W 20-6 | 5.0 | 26 |
| 10/24/09 | Tennessee | Grass | W 12-10 | 2.0 | 19 |
| 11/07/09 | 13 LSU | Grass | W 24-15 | 3.0 | 27 |
| 11/14/09 | @ Mississippi St. | Grass | W 31-3 | 2.0 | 18 |
| 11/21/09 | Chattanooga | Grass | W 45-0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 11/27/09 | @ Auburn | Grass | W 26-21 | 3.0 | 32 |
| 12/05/09 | + 5 Florida | Turf | W 32-13 | 0.0 | 0 |
Notes
- The 30 sacks put Alabama at 27th in the country, but 37th in sacks per game at 2.31. The disturbing trend for Alabama, besides the fact that one third of the sacks on the season came against Virgina Tech and Florida International in the first two games, is that the number of sacks per game decreased every month of the season, culminating with no sacks against Florida and dropping to 2.00 sacks per game in November after peaking in September with 3.25.
- In the last four games, Alabama only had five sacks, good for barely more than one sack per game.
- In a game against an FCS school that they blew out and shut out -- something the Longhorn defense has failed to do this season -- but failed to register a sack. Likewise against North Texas, a team that finished with two wins. Of course, North Texas didn't give up many sacks on the year -- only 12 sacks all season, a remarkably low number for a team with so few wins.
- On the other hand, Florida was a poor team in keeping opponents from sacking Tebow, giving up two a game, but Alabama did not manage to register a sack. However, against teams that consistently gave up sack this season, like South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Florida International, Alabama was able to pick up a higher number of sacks than expected.
- The sack distribution reveals a lot about the Alabama defense -- Marcel Dareus leads the team with six, a defensive tackle who came up with a big sack against LSU that's a likely candidate for a Snap Shot in the near future here. Even though Dareus leads the team, he hasn't made a sack in the last four games -- he's the most likely candidate to sack McCoy in the game because he will be matched up against a Texas guard all day playing as a three technique. Nickel back Javier Arenas checks in second with 5.0 -- he's a frequent blitzer in the Alabama scheme. Then Rolando McClain and Eryk Anders, both listed at linebacker, both with four.
- That means two things -- Alabama most often puts pressure on the quarterback blitzing with McClain or Arenas or others and the defensive ends don't make a lot of plays. Part of the reason for that is that Alabama often plays with three down linemen, meaning they often play a technique inside the tackles -- they aren't rushing from the edge much, that's the job of a "linebacker" like Anders, who plays a similar position to Sergio Kindle and, though, I didn't see it much on film, McClain as well. A notable absence on the list is Terrence Cody, who has not recorded a sack this season.
Conclusion: A relatively isolated statistic like sacks does not represent a defense as a whole, but it does provide some perspective into what the Alabama defense is about -- playing fundamentally sound football that uses a variety of blitzes to put pressure on the quarterback, but doesn't get a lot of pressure from the three down linemen in the scheme. What the sacks by Alabama don't indicate is why exactly those three players in the middle of Alabama's line sack the quarterback, or why Alabama has relatively pedestrian sack numbers compared to other teams in the country. The first part of the that last query -- Why so little pressure from the middle? -- will hopefully become more apparent as coverage continues and the game approaches.
Against Texas the stats say that Alabama will probably sack McCoy between two and three times, with the potential to reach an extremely damaging number like five if the interior of the line completely falls apart like it did against Nebraska -- looking at you Michael Huey and David Snow -- with Arenas and Dareus the most likely candidates, and not because they lead the team. In the case of Dareus, it's because he will get one-on-one match ups against Huey and/or Snow in passing situations and the odds are that at least once in the game he will absolutely destroy them with a pass rush and get to McCoy. In the case of Arenas, it's because there's a good chance he comes on several blitzes during the game and is a likely candidate to be in McCoy's lap if the Longhorns go jet tempo and try to bootleg McCoy to his right with it. However, if the Longhorns do manage a similar type of performance as Florida, or, say, FCS school Chattanooga, then they have a good chance of moving the ball offensively and sustaining some drives.
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Reasoning why Bama didn't sack Tebow
They might have been focusing on contain rather than sacking Tebow in passing situations (ie once Florida abandoned the run).
by Longhorn@Berkeley on Dec 31, 2009 10:41 AM CST reply actions
Texas has given up 2.39 sacks per game which is more than
Alabama’s recent average. However, with 31 sacks by the opposition all year, Texas had an outlier of 9 opposing sacks in the Nebraska game. Take those away, and Texas was averaging 1.69 opposing sacks per game which, statistically speaking, favors our ability to thwart Colt getting sacked.
I like our chances so long as we practice, practice, practice underneath routes to keep the Tide LB’s honest. This has been stated on this site but will be critical to our TOS strategy. Look for Dan Buckner to have a good game. He limped to the finish with a gimpy knee but I bet you he has rested and will be fresh. We must keep Ingram off the field and give our D as much rest as possible for the 4th quarter push.
"We don't freestyle Texas Fight, big boy." - Coach Brown
Good points.
Bama’s version of 3-4 isn’t a sack-producing machine, you’re right. Cody’s a run defender and a personnel matchup problem, primarily.
Against FL, as someone wrote, keeping containment on Tebow was more important. The goal was to make Tebow think and make the right decision then execute it, rather than let him just react and run like a fullback(-who-occasionally-passes).
Who said, “football’s a game of inches, and the 6 between the QB’s ears are the most important”…?
I suspect a similar contain/cover approach will be taken with McCoy and Texas. I know the Longhorn offense is a lot more than McCoy to Shipley. That and the opportunistic TX defense, plus your kick return game, worry me the most.
Full disclosure: I’m an Alabama graduate, class of ’85, lifelong Bama fan; grew up in El Paso and San Antonio (and other states, being a military brat).
I believe this will be a game for the ages. Let’s kick it off already!
by Jeff (no, the other one) on Dec 31, 2009 11:05 AM CST reply actions
Thanks for your thoughts.
Definitely agree about the need to contain Tebow and McCoy.
by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Jan 1, 2010 12:21 AM CST up reply actions
Duality of a Bama defense in two games
I’d like to get PB’s and a Bama fan’s take on the difference between the play of the Bama defense in the Auburn game and the Florida game.
From my review Auburn managed an inordinate amount of big plays in the Iron Bowl — a reverse early on, a double move on a corner blitz, and scored another TD easily on play-action out of a jumbo package — on ‘misdirection’ plays. To a certain extent, rewatching the Iron Bowl reminded me of Texas/K-State because of the sorts of plays Auburn ran to fool the over-committed Bama defense.
However, Florida was unable to execute multiple big plays vs Bama. Bama played sound, gap-responsiblity football against the run, and Longhorn@Berkeley is correct about the approach against Tebow. Much more focused on contain rather than the sack. The ends were disciplined in their pass rush. They rushed Tebow without pressing too far into the backfield which would have allowed him to step up into the pocket and through the gaps. The pocket collapsed and forced Tebow into incomplete passes (20/35), or very short gains (more in this in a different comment) Florida tried to play straight-up, smash-mouth football and was overmatched at seemingly every position.
In the totalility of the Bama season, Auburn’s production seems to be the outlier. So some point to the rivalry game/all-bets-are-off aspect of the Iron Bowl. However, Florida seems to lack the sort of play-makers that Auburn used in misdirection and rewatching both games it becomes clear that what Auburn lacked in a merely human QB and skill players, they made up for in speed out of the backfield and in scheme.
Bama D vs. AU contrasted with FL?
I don’t think Alabama overlooked Auburn — Auburn’s offense under Malzahn can strike like lightning. Once we got over the heart-attack symptoms, the post-game assessment in my circle of friends was that AU hurt us the same way they hurt their other opponents. It’s about finding or creating a mismatch and exploiting it. I predicted that onside kick all week before the Iron Bowl. Auburn did their fighting tradition proud.
AU never mounted much of a sustained drive against Bama, but they almost didn’t need to. That’s both a strength and a weakness of the Malzahn offense.
Bama didn’t lose its composure against Auburn. That was the mental edge they used to pull out a win.
The Bama D against FL, on the other hand, seemed to be on a mission long-awaited since Dec. 2008. Saban’s and Smart’s plan, and the disappointment left over from the end of 2008’s 2 losses, were vitally important. Saban harped on poor tackling in the secondary, in particular.
Also, against FL, our offense dominated time of possesion, making the D’s job much easier.
FL’s offense this year has been one, or maybe 1.5, dimensional — Tebow and his supporting cast. We knew they’d be much like last year, move-the-sticks-run-the-clock methodical ball control.
Wasn’t it Alexander the Great who believed in attacking where an enemy was physically strongest, because that’s where they were mentally weakest…? Force Tebow to think, then execute things he’s not as comfortable doing — and it worked.
McCoy and Texas’ offense, while somewhat similar, have a whole lot more diversity to worry about. They have the best defense Bama’s faced, plus the most high-powered offense. I don’t see either team blowing out the other, which means the kicking game can be the deciding factor.
What Saban said in early November about their “best game is still out there” rang true. Here’s hoping there’s one more where that came from!
7 days away — no suspensions, no agent contacts, no injuries — let’s tee it up!
It’s similar to a baseball pitcher, cruising along, then suddenly giving up a solo shot HR. It still counts, it still hurts, but the question is can he get back in the groove now…?
by Jeff (no, the other one) on Dec 31, 2009 10:44 PM CST up reply actions
Doh!
Forgot to preview, got my paragraphs outta order… how embarrassing.
by Jeff (no, the other one) on Dec 31, 2009 11:05 PM CST up reply actions
Bama's "sacks" versus Florida
If you look only at the “sack” stats in the SEC championship game you don’t get the complete picture. Take a look at Tebow’s “rushing” attempts:
First Quarter
2-10 (4:07) – +3 yards
2-10 (2:50) – +8 yards
1-10 (1:58) – (-1) yard
Bama – 9, Florida – 3. 10 yards rushing for Tebow
Second Quarter
2-1 (5:52) – +23 yards
1-10 (5:00) – +15 yards
1-10 (2:51) – +2 yards
Bama – 19, Florida – 13. 40 yards rushing for Tebow
Third Quarter
1-10 (14:48) – +4 yards
2-1 (9:07) – +5 yards
1-10 (8:35) – (-2) yards
Bama – 26, Florida – 13. 7 yards rushing for Tebow
Forth Quarter
3-2 (12:50) – +7 yards
Bama – 32, Florida – 13. 7 yards rushing for Tebow
Tebow had 2 rushes for negative yards, and 2 rushes for 3 yards or less.
Florida scored 10 of its 13 points in the 2nd quarter, and its no mystery that they coincided with Tebow’s most productive quarter of the game (40 out of his 63 yards rushing).
I bring up this information for several reasons.
1. If you replace Tebow with 99%of other QBs, those 2 negative yard “rushes” would be sacks.
2. Point #1 withstanding, Bama acheived its goal of containing Tebow by playing disciplined defensive football vs Tebow in quarters 1 and 3. By the 4th quarter, the lead was insurmountable on Tebow’s feet alone and Florida was forced to pass. Bama did manage to tackle Tebow for loss, and we shouldn’t overlook that simply by tallying up what some statistician deems “sacks”.
All that said, I fully believe that Colt McCoy is a more dynamic QB (not runner, mind you) than Tebow. Althought he doesn’t mow guys over, one skill that McCoy possess over Tebow is his ability to throw on the run. In addition, Colt has receivers that are used to breaking off routes and creating havoc as they run through zones.
I often say that winning football games comes down making your opponent think vs react - and if Texas can counter Bama’s defensive approach (I’m not quite sure what Bama will try to take away yet) and thus get Bama’s defenders into a “thinking” mode, rather than purely “reacting” then we can gain a step or two. One way to do this is to get Colt moving in the backfield, and picking the right opportunities to take a shot or two downfield or with is feet. Assuming Texas’ o-line is ready to play, the crux of our game comes down to what happens in the 6 inches between Colts ears.
Maybe A Bias
Colt, with decent protection, is much more of a threat than Tebow. Bama was able to say – “let Tebow try to beat us with the pass” and they would be ok with that. The combined running and passing of Colt should be much harder for Bama to defend.
Very Promising Stat for Horns
I expect that we will have more success in the match up against Bama than the NU and OU disasters. What has really hampered the Horns is when McCoy and Suh got quick penetration to Colt. A space eater like Cody, while still an excellent player, will not impact the Horns like Suh. Colt is one of the rare QBs that has the accuracy to pick you apart when given time. Bama has played basically 2 QBs this year in Snead and Mallet. Both have big arms – but not nearly the accuracy to consistently dissect a zone. No disrespect to Tebow – just think he is more of a running QB at this stage of his development.
Interesting about the 2 QBs
The two most clear passing threats were Mallett and Snead, yes. Alabama held them to 73 points and 87 points respectively below their passer rating.
Of Alabama’s 9 conference opponents and lone major out-of-conference opponent (VT), all 10 teams had a pass efficiency performance below that of their season average. The cumulative rating was 91.70 compared to a cumulative season rating of 135.49.
Alabama has the top ranked pass efficiency defense in the country and also statistically has the greatest negative efficiency impact on its opponents of any D in the country. The sack statistic does not take into account pressures, incompletions and interceptions caused by the pass rush. It is simply one part of the picture which can be manipulated to look like an encouraging stat for Texas.
manipulating...
I think what the post is intended to illuminate is that compared to the other top 3 or 4 defenses in the country, Bama’s defense is less productive in terms of sacks which could be purposefully caused by scheme, or it could be caused by that just not being the strong suit of this great defense, or a combination of things. Colt doesn’t get rattled by much, so as long as he’s not on his back 1/2 a second after the snap, Longhorns feel good about our chances. He’s dealt with good defenses his entire career at Texas.
Rattled
Colt has played only four defenses ranked in the top 50 in passing efficiency this season. In those four games, he is 32 points below his average in efficiency. And against the two top 10 efficiency Ds, the results were glaring. Neb and OU aren’t just top 10 pass Ds because of sacks.
I’m interested to see his production against statistically efficient pass Ds in past seasons as well.
We've seen him do it all, against anyone
down 21 at the half…..check.
down 21 to start the forth…check.
down 3 with less than 2 minutes left…check.
down by 4 in a bowl game with 2 minutes left…check.
Down, up, tied, you name it, he has seen it. Not always pretty, sometimes makes mistakes, sometimes tries to do too much, but you take it because he’s a tough winner and leader. He will occasionally get rattled by something new, but he won’t stay rattled for long and his playmaking is infectious. We love our QB GR722, perhaps even more than we loved VY (because Colt’s physical gifts are quite a bit less than VY’s).
Colt is better QB, and has more experience than Mallet and obviously you know about Snead — Colt beat him out for the starting job which precipitated his transfer to Miss.
by BMG on Jan 1, 2010 8:49 AM CST up reply actions
Stats went away suddenly
He’s definitely a winner and a great player. No one is arguing that. When he struggles, he still wins. But that’s not the topic. To be encouraged by the Alabama sack statistic is misplaced to me. Passing efficiency on each side measures a QBs and Ds productivity in the passing game better than any other.
And McCoy has only played 5 top 25 pass efficiency Ds in this entire career. Neb 09, OU 09, Ohio St 08, Az St 07, TCU 07. All were performances that were below his efficiency averages, some quite considerably. And Alabama 09 is statistically a better pass efficiency D than any of those 5 opponents.
does that really surprise you?
I don’t get it, do you expect me to believe that Colt’s numbers don’t come down against a top 5 pass efficiency defense? Of course they are going to come down. Its not ALL about stats, the point is he still finds ways to win. All those games you listed were Texas wins by the way. So if you were to make a list of starting college QBs today that would be capable of beating Bama’s vaunted D Colt would probably be at or near the top.
by BMG on Jan 1, 2010 2:51 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not talking about whether he is going to win or not
Why divert from the initial statistical discussion? He will be the best passing QB Alabama has faced under Saban. It’s quite a clash.
The point is that the initial post found encouragement from Alabama’s defensive statistics, implying that the reason that McCoy struggled against NU and OU was just sacks, which Alabama doesn’t do much.
I instead offered that NU and OU were also top 10 passing efficiency Ds, the only two top 10 passing efficiency Ds McCoy has faced in his entire career. And he’s about to face the top ranked unit.
Nobody is saying that the guy isn’t great or that he won’t win. I’m sticking to the stat discussion. The sack stat is the most overrated and misused of all defensive statistics. Ask Muschamp. Efficiency is the best measure, and McCoy’s statistics and lack of experience against top shelp efficiency Ds in his career are notable.
by GR722 on Jan 1, 2010 3:29 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
props for making such a well reasoned argument
i would have just resorted to name calling and slander by now.
i’d be yelling something to the effect of
“cant you see this will be like the nebraska game but worse? sure you may escape with only 5 or 6 sacks instead of 9, but you’ll throw more INT’s and lose by 27 points or more…”
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
I take the view that Alabama is something of a 'contain' defense,
a bend but don’t break unit. The Tide will blitz but won’t send 6 or 7 guys on any play, thus keeping spies available for screens, scrambles and safety-valve passes. Just guessing, but that may be due to a lack of rush speed from the ends.
Regardless, it’s a strong unit — just not one that relies on sacks and frequent harassment of the QB.
stats don't always tell the tale
If you have ever listened to nick saban, he does not get excited about the number of sacks the defense has. His focus is to disrupt the qb not necessarily sack him. The numbers used in the article only focus on sacks not the number of times the defense has had a negative impact on the qb.
'Bama fan here
That is exactly how we think. Here is an article from the Ole Miss game. I was at that game and that was really the beginning of McElroy’s mid-season slump (and the beginning of my personal wish to test the IQ of whoever was calling the plays for Alabama in the red zone at the time for the sure fact it would be a record low). Jeavon Snead was completly rattled and could do next to nothing in that game.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=maisel_ivan&id=4549653
by REG233710 on Dec 31, 2009 9:00 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Amen and preach it!
On the red zone play-calling — were you at the LSU game, too? 2nd and 2 on the LSU 4, and we waste 2 fade passes to Julio…? I really began to worry about winning that game, or many of the rest, for a minute there.
by Jeff (no, the other one) on Dec 31, 2009 11:10 PM CST up reply actions
Um, in case you missed it
Snead is not the current all-time winningest QB in CFB history. Nor does he hold the all-time best completion percentage. And I don’t recall Snead being invited to ANY award presentations the last 2 years. All of those distinctions belong to Colt McCoy who won the starting QB job over Snead his redshirt freshmen year. Snead is no Colt McCoy. You can bank on that, brother.
With that said, I respect Snead’s game. He is a great CFB QB in his own right. And he has helped to reignite Rebel Nation. I wish him much success at the next level.
So keep looking under the hood. You guys have not yet found the secret formula.
"We don't freestyle Texas Fight, big boy." - Coach Brown
sorry
but Bama is going to come to play with just a little more piss and vinegar than y’all may have seen from the likes of wyoming, nebraska, and 7-6 oklahoma.
all time winningest QB from a weak ass no D conference. McElroy is the best QB in Texas.
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
riiiiiiiiiight...
..McElroy, the QB that sat behind Chase Daniel, and John Freakin’ Parker Wilson. Please..Colt had to sit behind Vince Young, and beat out Snead. I don’t want to get into a pissing match on who is better, but there are many stats to show you that Colt > Greg. I’ll just give that comparison.
by vy til i die on Jan 4, 2010 11:24 PM CST up reply actions
Even if this isn't 1992 again, I'll be happy with this season.
Okay, I’m lying. I would be totally devastated and mad as a busted nest of hornets. Still, I’m looking forward to the game, and I think Alabama’s D will give Texas fits.
Just because I'm an occasional to frequent troll, doesn't mean I lack a heart or don't have a point. Rocky Top Talk blog ban: I did it for teh lulz.
Great read
I appreciate all the work y’all put in here and encourage anyone who hasn’t checked out Roll Bama Roll to do so.
As far as the sack stats go, Saban has stated his preference for relentless pressure on the QB as opposed to sacks. The press that cover the Tide wrote extensively about this very issue during the middle of the season.
It all boils down to Saban’s defensive philosophy. He loves versatile athletes, which translates to a lot of zone & corner blitzes. I won’t lie; to the casual fan, his schemes seem insane. When I’m thinking LOAD THE BOX!!!, he drops 7 and succeeds.
Don’t doubt the genius.
Lee Corso: How would you describe tailgating at Alabama?
Kirk Herbstreit: Barbecue and Ralph Lauren
Muschamp is the same way
and we don’t doubt coach Boom’s schemes either. Getting a sack is not the ultimate goal of every down — getting a stop on 3rd down outside of field goal range is. Saban and Muschamp both try to get stops a number of different ways, and a key ingredient to that is how they maximize pressure while committing the fewest resources possible to the QB. After all, loading the box against a passing QB puts your DBs on an island and makes you susceptible to getting beat over the top. If Bama can get pressure with 4 or 5 guys consistently then Colt and the offense will have trouble — thankfully for us we happen to also have a shut-down defense that can keep us in a game if that unfolds. However, if 5 guys can’t get consistent pressure for Bama, and Saban starts to over-commit to the blitz then Colt will spread it out and burn the blitz with his accuracy.
The most effective defensive schemes against Texas that Colt faced this year (OU & Nebraska) and last year (TTech) were ones that got pressure while still managing to keep 7 guys back in coverage on many downs. Whenever teams have blitzed relentlessly Colt has beat them handily. The key for a defense is not just to mix up the blitz looks, they’ve also got to win 1 or 2 matchups consistently against our O-line (which does have its weaknesses). Not to mention, the opposing offense has to be able to take advantage and score against our defense — forcing the Texas offense to become 1 dimensional. That’s the recipe from a Texas fan’s point of view.
by BMG on Jan 1, 2010 9:09 AM CST up reply actions
Quick thought from a Husker fan
I skimmed the comments and didn’t see this, but I apologize if I’m rehashing something. The stats show that Bama isn’t a sack machine by any stretch, HOWEVER I would point out that Oklahoma and Nebraska have given Saban and company about 2 miles of game film showing that the way to shut down UT’s offense is to get to McCoy. He’s a great qb in almost all aspects, but when he gets pressured, he doesn’t even look all-conference.
It seems clear to me that a big part of Alabama’s game plan will be to get after McCoy early and often. I’ll be interested to see how Texas schemes for this. If Alabama somehow duplicates what the Blackshirts did, this one will be over long before the 4th quarter. Texas MUST have something of a running game, and they MUST keep McCoy’s uniform clean. Do that and I think you’ll win. Fail, and I don’t think Texas even sniffs 20 points.
Good luck guys, this is a big game for the conference. I’ll be following with great interest.
"My hardest job is to convince the people of Nebraska that 10-1 is not a losing season." - Tom Osborne
thanks for that, husker fan
and thanks for that beat down of Arizona the other day. Nebraska ended the year playing like a top 10 team.
by BMG on Jan 1, 2010 9:27 AM CST up reply actions
Win one for the conference?
I appreciate your vote of conference solidarity. Awesome effort yesterday as I see a budding Nebraska team ala the “old days.”
Unfortunately conference solidarity may belong to the fans – certainly not to the coaches: “…Oklahoma and Nebraska have given Saban and company about 2 miles of game film showing that the way to shut down UT’s offense …”
by HalfmileHorn on Jan 1, 2010 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
I'm sure Texas is aware of that...
and I don’t blame them for doing it. Coaching ties run deep.
by BMG on Jan 1, 2010 2:27 PM CST up reply actions
Agree
The major concern for me is the fact that the Texas offensive line doesn’t adjust well to blitzes — teams can often show overload blitzes, get the line to change their call, then have some of the blitzers drop into coverage while the line completely misses one of the several guys coming. Given that Alabama has about 80 different blitzes, I would think they will show a few early to try to get to McCoy.
by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Jan 2, 2010 12:52 AM CST up reply actions
the only thing that could hurt texas more than NOT HAVING A RUNNING GAME
would be making a foolish and futile attempt to establish one. oh man, what a joke that would be. can you imagine texas trying to run a power or a dive between the tackles, against Bama? get ready for second and 11 or 12.
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
you forgot other qbs
Txstampede, I’ll give you Snead but you forgot to mention Mallet, Tebow and Taylor (Vtech) who all have better passer ratings than Colt this year. don’t get me wrong, I think Colt is a very good qb and deserving of all the praise but bama has faced some top flight qbs this season and seemed to do ok against them. I for one will trust saban and his strategy.
Taylor? Seriously? Top flight?
I know his pass efficiency is higher than Colt’s, but c’mon that’s a stretch to call Taylor top flight. Mallet is a good, young QB. Tebow is a unique guy who had a much, much better supporting cast around him last year. McCoy’s combination of skills, his experience, the supporting cast at the skill positions, and his opportunistic defense which creates more chances for him make Texas’ offense the scariest one Bama will face this year. It’s going to be chess match for 4 quarters.
by BMG on Jan 1, 2010 9:25 AM CST up reply actions
McCoy is legit
He will be the most complete QB faced by our defense this season.
Colt doesn’t sling the ball like Mallet, but he can scramble when pressured.
Colt doesn’t run like Tebow, but he does realize that throwing the ball away is better than a sack.
The play I fear the most is the quick slant. Our corners have been beaten by this one play all season long, and the Texas receivers can run after the catch with the best of ’em. It neutralizes blitzing linebackers and safeties, and the repetitive gains of positive yardage can fill in for a running game if (when?? please) that part of the Texas offense stalls.
I can’t wait for this game. ROLL TIDE
Lee Corso: How would you describe tailgating at Alabama?
Kirk Herbstreit: Barbecue and Ralph Lauren
by animalcracker on Jan 1, 2010 10:55 PM CST up reply actions
scariest?
unless the horns develop a running game between the big 12 championship game and January 7 they will be one dimensional and no matter how good colt is it will be an up hill climb. also, don’t plan on that defense creating a lot of opportunities since bama is one of the best in the nation when it comes to holding onto the ball.
interesting...
so Texas’s top 20 passing offense is going to slowed by the top ranked passing efficiency defense, but Bama’s 84th ranked passing offense (in yards) and 12th ranked rushing offense (yards) will not be impacted by a top 10 defense is scoring, rushing, & passing efficiency? Nevermind the fact that Texas is 2nd in the country in takeaways? I typically reserved the term “delusional” for aggies, but your making a case for me to do otherwise…
Why is it that horns fans on this blog can fairly objectively make comments, both pro and con, about our team but the ‘bama fans can’t seem to do the same? Yes, the SEC championship was impressive, but next Wednesday is a different game, against a different team. Horns fans know we have the biggest challenge of the year on our hands and we welcome it.
by BMG on Jan 1, 2010 2:45 PM CST up reply actions
you guys have played 1 top 20 team all season long, and you blew the game, had the refs gift you an extra second so you could be here now
i’m glad you recognize that Bama present the biggest challenge texas will have faced all year, but i still think you underestimate the degree to which you are unprepared. texas represents at best the 3rd biggest challenge Bama faced all year, behind Florida and Virginia Tech.
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
Alabama's big advantage on defense is ...
.. not being on the field much. teams have 2-3 less possessions per game because the time Alabama’s Offense is on the field.
Good point to make about the sacks. Sacks aren’t made by the defensive line but by the linebackers and secondary. The line is not the primary tool of the pass rush, blitzes are.
That plays into one of Colt McCoy’s strengths reading the defense and finding the receiver that is open in that situation.
One other factor about the Alabama defense is it is stalwart and sturdy and to some degree relies on the offense making mistakes. Alabama takes away the easy yardage and the offense then ends up having to make multiple 3rd and long plays to keep drives alive. Most college teams are not competent enough to convert 3-4 3rd and longs per drive. Once a team is forced to punt the ball is gone for 7-8 minutes of playing time. It makes it hard to get any offensive rhythm this way.
One thing will be interesting to watch is will Texas pick up the pace. Alabama relies on some decision making on the sidelines on defense on whether to blitz or not. If Texas can go fast it may interrupt that process so that it does not proceed smoothly. The coverages and the blitzes are so intertwined Texas may be able to disrupt them by playing fast.
Texas has a good defense but I can see Alabama being able to move the ball but the real determination of who wins the game will be when the Texas defense is their own red zone with a shorter field to defend can they limit Alabama to field goals. Texas can win scoring on half as many drives as Alabama if they score TD’s and Alabama scores FGs. Alabama may score on 4-5 drives but maybe only 1 td given Alabama’s problems scoring against worst defenses. Somewhere in the 16-19 point range Texas may only have to score 3 times to win.
CBS College sports is a satellite station we get and they have been playing some of the Alabama games they covered Just saw Alabama vs Tenneessee again last week.
did i read that right?
The line is not the primary tool of the pass rush, blitzes are. That plays into one of Colt McCoy’s strengths reading the defense and finding the receiver that is open in that situation.
okay, i’ll play ball. lets go ahead and agree that colt mccoy is better at figuring out a blitz package than nick saban is. but is mccoy going to be better at executing against that blitz package than say, rolando mcclain or javier arenas will be at dragging his ass down to the mud?
i love that mind set though. colt mccoy vs saban, a battle of two established football geniuses, which one will prevail…
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
Jazz Hands
Ghost OBR, if we’re going to have 5 fat Pxxxies blocking up front with the Jazz Hands/Drill Team finesse techniques it is going to be a long day.
Here’s hoping for a metamorphisis up front. Hook ’em!
Bama QB??
As we talk about all the things Texas has to do to beat Bama, lets not forget the right QB has to show up for Bama. Make no mistake Texas D will be relentless. Muschamps boys will be ready.
Bama QB?
key difference is McElroy doesn’t have to play great for bama to win. The same can’t be said for texas. Their entire offense is only as good as colt.
It's ok?
not against a defense like you will see next week you haven’t.
Ummm....
Are they playing both sides of the ball? We lead the nation in non-offensive scoring. We can kneel the ball every play and punt on 4th down on every possession and beat Bama by 10.
bye bye
I can tell by that last comment you are an idiot and not worth wasting my time talking to. bye bye now little boy
totally bro
that is such a sound gameplan, have you considered emailing your insights to the coaching staff? they could probably use a brilliant mind like yours
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
Don't be dumb, kingwoodfan
If you didn’t see how Nebraska’s D played against Texas, you should watch more TV.
If you think Bama’s D will be able to duplicate Nebraska’s success for 4 quarters, you should start bottling that confidence and selling it on Bryant Drive.
RTR
Lee Corso: How would you describe tailgating at Alabama?
Kirk Herbstreit: Barbecue and Ralph Lauren
by animalcracker on Jan 1, 2010 10:59 PM CST up reply actions
nothing dumb about it
Good for you, you think NU has a better defense than bama’s. If that makes you feel better going into this game more power to you. Guess we will see, won’t we.
what the hell is going on? am i missing out on soem sarcasm?
Bama’s D is clearly better than nebraska’s. there is no question.
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
Not if Texas is able to stop the run
I do think though that this is going to be a Defensive game more than anything else
This is the key to a Texas win
Stopping the run and even more so, stopping big breakout running plays.
If Texas can do that, it’s anybody’s game, even if our offense isn’t producing. I expect our O to have trouble with Bama’s D, we just need to do the same to Bama.
If our run D can live up to the hype, we’re going to give Bama a run for their money.
texas' only shot at winning is predicated on Bama trying to run first, and texas knowing that and being able to effectively mitigate it
however, even if texas is successful in that respect, all Bama will need to do is adjust and start passing on first down and Bama rolls.
i think that because the Bama coaches know just how easy this game should be, they will come out with a conservative gameplan and start with running to set up the pass. there’s a chance texas can shut that down. if bama is shut down for the first 2 quarters, they open up the playbook in the second half and run away with it anyways.
either way bama wins big.
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
statistics help me sleep at night
hell Javier arenas was our leading TFL guy there for awhile
did someone already mention that? too lazy to read
nice article
Terrence Cody drinks your milkshake!
This touches on something I'll be interested to see
In the 2 toughest games this year for Colt & the offense (OU & NU), the consistency of pressure on McCoy greatly impacted the game. The common point I see in those two defenses is great individual players on the D-line who consistently won their matchups and pressured Colt. I’ll admit I’m not that well versed w/ Alabama’s D-line, but it seems the most dominant player is Cody, who would seem to be more of a landmark than a pass rusher. I’m interested to see if the line fares better when the defense is trying to beat them schematically (blitz recognition & proper line calls) without consistently beating them individually (Suh, Gerald McCoy).
Dareus is dangerous as a pass rusher
But in watching the games against Tennessee and LSU, I didn’t see much playmaking from the defensive ends.
by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Jan 2, 2010 5:28 AM CST up reply actions
bama's two pass rushing soul reapers are named marcel darious and eryk anders
cody only plays on running downs. will probably only get 20-30 snaps on D vs y’all. maybe a handful more as our FB in our goal line set.
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
We ('Bama) as a D...
Aren’t really a sack producing defense, by scheme. Sacks are a nice bonus if they happened, but our D would be no less formidable if they hadn’t registered a sack all year.
Our D line is all about containment. The 2 ends contain the outside, and Mount Cody stuffs the middle, creating blocking matchup issues and generally cutting off a portion of the field. Despite playing a 3-4 defense, you will often see a Linebacker down almost like a D lineman. That’s usually what we use to create pressure, but even still we are designed to hurry and harass QBs, as opposed to sacking them outright.
The basic plan is to take away the run, use a very complicated coverage scheme that is difficult for the opposing QB to read, then hurry said QB into making mistakes- poor throws, interceptions, etc.
I’m an old boxer, so I like to use a boxing analogy for our D- and really, this applies to our team as a whole when I think about it-
‘Bama is not a knockout puncher. We don’t come out swinging wildly trying to put someone away early. ‘Bama is a marvel of near-perfect technique, mental acuity, and conditioning. We don’t knock people out, we wear them down. We keep our guard up so it’s hard to land anything on us, and when we go on the offensive, we grind away with stiff jabs rather than going straight for the right cross.
Coach Saban has a favorite saying: “Make his ass quit”. That’s really what it is. Grind them down, exhaust them, make sure that by the 4th quarter they just don’t want to be here anymore. That’s ’Bama’s M.O. as a team.
It’s an interesting contrast against Texas, which is definitely a team capable of the proverbial “knockout punch” at any given time, especially with a cannon-armed signal caller.
Interestingly, (and I know at this point I’m delving into offense and thus getting off-topic here) Bama and Texas are only about 20 yards apart in their yards per game average this season, though I would suspect that Texas tends to pick theirs up in bigger chunks than ’Bama.
Anyway, I’ve totally lost focus at this point. Bottom line is I am looking forward to one outstanding game between two great teams.
"You have to create six seconds of hell, every time the ball is snapped..."
-Nick Saban
was i drinkin moonshine on new years eve? or did i just read this?
if the Longhorns do manage a similar type of performance as Florida, or, say, FCS school Chattanooga, then they have a good chance of moving the ball offensively and sustaining some drives
um, you are aware that A; Bama was not trying to get sacks in either game, Bama was trying to force tebow to stay in the pocket and pass it deep down the field. (how did that work out for him? also, while there were not technically any “sacks” int he game, tebow was flushed out of the pocket and dragged down for a loss of yards on multiple occasions.) and against chattanooga the entire game was run like a scrimmage. Bama never rushed more than 4 at UTC and i dont think they had more than 20 total pass attempts anyways.
and B; the combined final score of those two games was 87 to 13?
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
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