Split National Championship?
by BigJohnson on Dec 6, 2009 11:59 AM CST
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PrintI suppose it's a bit early to start speculating on possible outcomes since the BCS bowls aren't even set in stone yet, but I'm going to anyway. It looks like a split national championship is more likely this year than any in the BCS era.
Going by most analyst's (and most importantly, awiggo's) predictions, here are the bowls involving undefeated teams:
BCS Title: Alabama vs. Texas
Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Scenario 1: Either Texas or Alabama win the BCS Title game by a significant margin.
In this case, regardless of the outcome of the other bowls, the winner finishes #1 in the BCS and AP.
Scenario 2: Texas wins the BCS Title game in a squeaker.
Either a Cincinnati win over Florida or a TCU win over Boise could push enough AP voters over the edge to split the championship. Even with Boise's weak SOS, I think a good win over TCU would make Texas/Boise State a close vote in the AP.
Scenario 3: Alabama wins the BCS Title game in a squeaker.
With Bama's nice win over Florida, it would likely take a significantly better margin of victory by Cincinnati to split it. I don't think any TCU or BS win would do it, but it's possible if TCU wins in a blowout.
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If it didn’t happen last year, it won’t happen this year.
I think a split championship almost requires the AP #1 before the bowls to be screwed out of the championship game.
A Texas win would be over the #1 team in the country, and the SEC champ to boot.
So it’s not an issue.
(And if it did happen? Who cares. We’re still champs.)
Different circumstances
Last year the only other undefeated team was a mid-major with little media support until they stomped on Bama. TCU has had the media support for at least the last half of this season, and Cincy is a BCS team that would finish undefeated with a win over last year’s National Champion.
Dude, there has been a split title in the BCS era (USC-LSU).
No way does that happen this year. Not even a remote possibility.
I never said it hadn't happened before
I am aware that it’s happened before which just means it’s possible for it to happen again. With the media storm we are going to get about TCU/Cincy “not getting a chance,” a weak or controversial Texas win combined with a strong TCU or Cincy win could cause the media to jump Texas in the AP Poll.
Not even a chance.
A year or two ago they made sure this would never happen by making that extra “National Championship” bowl game. BCS #1 vs. BCS #2 – Of course there should be a playoff, but for the current system that is in place this works and prevents any possible split National Title.
by redraidercominatya on Dec 6, 2009 3:32 PM CST reply actions
How did the extra game make any difference?
If the situation that happened to USC happened again (#1 in AP but not in the BCS national championship) then I could see a split happening again.
What I meant by Split National Championship
The AP voting TCU or Cincinnati #1 while the BCS keeps Texas/Alabama winner at #1.
I know what you are saying
Wells I get your point, but it would take some crazy things for a team to be #1 in the AP and not #1 or #2 in the BCS, don’t you think? I can’t see any possibility of a season where that happens, but I guess hypothetically it’s possible.
by redraidercominatya on Dec 6, 2009 6:53 PM CST up reply actions
I dont see it as any less possible than it was when it happened before
but I agree that it is very unlikely.
Exactly
I believe the only national championships that are recognized by the NCAA are the AP and BCS. The AP doesn’t really have any importance in my mind, but it’s at least recognized, I believe.
by burntorangehorn on Dec 6, 2009 4:48 PM CST up reply actions
the only reason there was a split with USC / LSU
is because the AP felt the wrong teams were matched up in the BCS championship game. OU got their ace kicked by K-State in the big 12 championship, but somehow still made it to the BCS championship. It really should have been LSU vs. USC to begin with.
We don’t have a case this year where obviously the wrong team got to the BCS championship game. So there will be no split this year.
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