UT vs. Alabama: By the Numbers

(Shhh, Bammer, let them build themselves up!)

You absolutely can’t base Alabama’s performance off of Florida’s meltdown! All Bama vs. Florida stats should be removed from the above comparisons at once!

…but you need to keep up with your own team:

“From the day we walked off the field [a year ago], everything we did was to come back and beat Florida.” – Mark Ingram

“We had a team meeting right before we started the offseason program back in February that we showed a picture to the players of [last year’s] SEC Championship. We said we would have some difficult times, but that we had to work to beat the best team in our league. And right now, the best team in our league is [Florida].” – Nick Saban

the defensive edge (slightly) to Bama (not that I’m biased or anything).
But I’d give special teams to Texas. We’ve had some problems with kick return coverage this year.

Bama is definitely a good team. But everyone seems to have forgotten that for the vast majority of the season they were not looked on as the main team to beat – in large part due to the unconvincing wins you cited.

Now Bama has the mystique and the unfaltering love of the media. And that’s cool – both teams will have their hands full. But let’s not get too carried away.

Tennessee, Auburn and LSU are the three teams that consider us their main rival. Sounds a lot like the OU and Texas A&M games to me.

and not relevant. Go troll somewhere else instead of spewing completely uninsightful commentary on boards other than your own.

The diffrence is the team you are playing is 7-5. We are playing a team 13-0 (in plain english 13 wins and zero losses is better than 7 wins 5 losses).

Conclusion: Even if we lose we are still better than the Aggies, and 95% of the country

is that both a&m and Georgia are Class A Underachievers. Georgia generally rides high expectations to newfound depths; nobody ever expects much of the ags, so failure never comes as much of a surprise. Key difference is that, just when you think Georgia has gone to the dogs (pun intended), they come back and smack somebody (just ask GT). The ags are much more given to choking. I forecast a Georgia win in this one, but hope you enjoy your time in lovely Shreveport.

TFL Allowed:

Bama – #28
Texas – #106

Sacks Allowed:

Bama – #21
Texas – #96

and vice versa. I think the key will be how each team handles that pressure. We might have to roll the pocket more and use misdirection, screens and draws to take the heat off.

And in this type of game the team with the most rushing yards usually wins the game. We’ll need to stop the run and take care of the ball and all is well.

I’ll have to re-jigger my whole spreadsheet, re-load my iPod, refill my decanter, and just generally get worked up about it again. It was depressing after the first go-round, I’m not sure I can go through it again. Plus which, since I basically wasted an entire day Monday goofing with it, I’m now behind schedule for the week, and I have to go out of town on business tomorrow night.

I’m not going to post all the exact numbers, because this page would be eighty-eleven feet long. Instead, I’ll post my summaries…

Sorted over all four offensive categories (scoring/rushing/passing/total), on the whole, Bama’s opponents are equal to or better than ours at scoring (which is bad for us, since even with better-at-scoring opponents, their scoring defense is #2 vs. our #7), quite a bit better at rushing (which is probably bad for us, since they rank right behind us at #2 vs. our #1 , and they do it against signficantly better competition), way worse at passing (which explains nothing; our opponents are way better, so our pass defense is worse at #23 vs. their #7), and a fair bit better overall than our opponents’ offenses (which, again, may be bad, since their #2 vs. our #3 is against better competition). Feeling depressed yet?

Sorted over all four defensive categories (scoring/rushing/passing/total), on the whole, Bama’s opponents are equal to or better than ours at scoring defense (which probably explains why they are #26 in SO vs. our #3), way worse at rushing defense (which is good for us, since they rank #12 vs. our #55, but they do it against signficantly worse competition), way better at passing defense (which explains why our passing offense is #14 vs. theirs at #84), and a fair bit better overall than our opponents’ offenses (which, again, may be bad, since their #35 vs. our #20 is against better competition).

Do you feel better now? I know I sure as hell don’t. As they say, stats are for losers…but you can’t just stick your head in the sand and pretend there’s no historical record. Those who don’t remember the past are doomed to repeat it, or something.

…forgot to say, these numbers were run disregarding the bottom five opponents in each sorted list. I.e., I sorted the list based on “Scoring Offense,” and then cut off the bottom five results. So, the eight teams represented in each category are not necessarily the same eight teams from category to category; they’re just the eight highest-ranked teams in that category.

If anybody wants a copy of this big honkin’ Excel spreadsheet, email me at adt7771 AT gmail DOT com and I’ll send it to you. Maybe you can somehow make it look less depressing.

Fortunately, we don’t have to beat Florida. We only have to be Alabama. Honestly, I like the matchup better.

nonbcs schools prove, without a doubt, that TCU is superior. like most horn fans i respect TCU and i would love to see them play florida to see how good they are. utah had a nice win last year over bama. but beating a bunch of nonbcs schools and a couple of average bcs teams doesnt prove shit.

Using more than just the Nebraska game as evidence please.

then why did every poll in the land rank Texas above TCU? I don’t think you’re listening to the right people.

But yeah we’ll play that little game. We don’t stand a chance.

You won’t mind if we show up anyway :)

Cincy is ranked higher than TCU, and deservedly so since they have actually beaten real teams.

TCU would loose pretty bad to Texas, Alabama and Florida. Yeah, they’ve looked good against weaker opponents in their own division. There should be a division 1a and a division 1b. Non BCS conference teams belong to 1b and Big 12, SEC, and the other BCS conferences should be in 1a. Give any good BCS school 1 month to prepare for TCU inatead of 1 week and the more talented teams will show why TCU and Boise State don’t belong in the picture.

But they might have just caught Texas Tech’s “Cotton Bowl” syndrome of not showing up because they were disappointed at the bowl assignment. A classic collegiate move. We almost did the same thing against Ohio State that year.

Positives: Both teams held the highest scoring offense they faced to a single touchdown. UT held a much better rushing team (OSU #24 vs. Tenn #43) to fewer yards. UT held OSU, whose passing game is similar to Bama’s, to less than 200 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions. UT held the best total offense team it faced to 7 points, on the road, while Bama let Auburn score 21 points. UT held OU, whose scoring offense is similar to Bama’s, to 13 points. UT held Mizzou, whose total offense is similar to Bama’s, to 7 points in their stadium.

…does our offense show up with a coherent game plan, or not? Clearly, our defense can take care of ’Bama’s offense. While we haven’t faced quite as good a rushing attack as what they’re going to bring to Pasadena, all but 3 of our opponents had a better passing game than ’Bama’s, and fully half of our opponents had better overall offenses. In case you forgot, we won all of those games.

When we’re on offense, though, thing’s are a bit different. While we’re all over the map on defense – #1 in rushing, #3 in total, #7 in scoring, and #23 in passing – Bama is #2 in all but passing, where they plummet all the way to…#7. If Greg Davis rolls out the same old tired game plan he used for OU and NU, we’re screwed. Bama may very well intercept the wide receiver screen we inevitably throw on the first play from scrimmage and run it back for a touchdown, then play field position all day and beat us 7-0. (Unless GD calls that same play several more times just to prove we can almost run it as well as Texas Tech, and Bama intercepts it a few more times to prove that no matter how well we almost run it, the play still sucks the dead ass of a roadkill armadillo.)

at the time they played.. Just as we played Oklahoma when they were ranked.

i also watched Texas play a very bad Oklahoma team and that was a 16-13 barn burner..i also like to pull out ONE game and point to that as a barometer for judging a team..WELL DONE!

And i know you guys point to Nebraska as a big time match up…but Nebraska had a good D but an absolute TERRIBLE offense..i bet Vandy could hold them under 20..

Yup. You can use stats to prove whatever you want, and it should be a great game.

Gotta do something for the next month, though.

Actually most of the Gator fans on SBN are OK. Most of the douches are found on Youtube. FWIW, I have found that there is a lot lower percentage of douches per fanbase on SBN than any other site I have frequented.

Ole Miss seemed okay to me but maybe that was because they had just won the Cotton Bowl. I was unpleasantly surprised with Nebraska fans at the Big 12 Championship. The best opposing fans I’ve encountered are Missouri fans most likely.

I recall LSU fans during Saban’s tenure there, were an obnoxious bunch. Now, they are much easier to get along with. They had been the laughing stock of the SEC for quite a few years, Saban arrived and the bandwagon fans crawled out of the woodwork. Same goes for some of the Ole Miss fans this year, at least early in the year. We have gained some of those bandwagon fans and they annoy me. I have a co-worker who has been an Auburn fan for the past decade I have worked with him. Over the off season, he converted to BAMA, claiming he didn’t like the way they treated Tubberville. He has been ultra annoying as a BAMA fan, wish Chizik would come take him back.

That I have encountered. Never met a real one in real life.

Well, the scenery might be worth the trip. Honestly, this should be a good game. If you beat us, it will not be because ESPN filled our guys heads full of fluff. Saban will have our guys ready and if you win, it will be because you had the better team that day. I say “that day” because you can never really say one way or the other which team is the better overall when it is a one time event, especially when the ball is oblong and takes funny bounces.

win a heisman, and then wait a few years, and they’ll give you a call.

Let me guess. Did whomever he was speaking to not challenge him? Did they nod along and then talk about something else?