Colt's Heisman Chance?
by austinite on Dec 8, 2009 4:22 PM CST
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I am quite puzzled by two very credible sources publishing that Colt is going to win the Heisman Trophy. First, it was the Heismanpundit.com, which stated on Sunday that Colt is still going to win despite his performance in the Big 12 Championship game. Heismanpundit is yet to contradict his claim (even though he voted Colt #2). Second, the ESPN Heisman Predictor claimed today that Colt will edge Ingram for the Heisman Trophy. I am not an insider, so I don't have the full extent of the story with me; nevertheless, it says "McCoy wins." Heisman Predictor got the winner correct for the past six years.
On the other side, stiffarmtrophy.com lists Colt in the fourth slot. Stiffarmtrophy.com also has correctly picked the Heisman winner for the last seven years. And basically ALL media releases seem to say that Colt has absolutely no chance of winning the Heisman.
As much as I want Colt to win Heisman, I must agree that he probably lost the Trophy with his third interception (not his fault) on the drive that looked so good, which began on the 1-yard line. What should we make out of these contradicting publications? Any thoughts?
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Lag Time
ESPN I know has a pretty solid delay in their “Heisman Tracker,” I imagine that other services do as well. As big of a beauty contest and as much as the “what have you done for me lately” aspect plays into the Heisman, I can’t see Colt winning.
If he does, great- I think that he’s a phenomenal player that is often limited by playcalling and OL play, and James Kirkendoll, some of the time.
It would also be a shame that he was a clear frontrunner after 12 games, and would be punished for playing a 13th when Gerhart and others got to benefit by resting.
Like most things CFL related, fairness is not part of the reality.
I am not sure
what you mean by “lag time.” ESPN published its FINAL projection TODAY. So I don’t know if we can say there is a lag.
Alrighty
If it says, final, it’s probably final. I was just talking about how during the regular season, they’d have results pop in piecemeal- so in the same page, they’d have updated some players and not others. If Colt wins, I would be amazed, given the media coverage all year and nature of the award and its voters. He’d be as deserving or more deserving than any of the other four.
Now that I think about it- he could win from regional divisions, as well as divisions in the positions allegiance- there are some that will go Suh to be contrarian (and because he’s outstanding), and there will prob be some kind of divide between the RBs. I can’t see Tebow getting much love at this point…. His star has fallen. So if a voter thinks a QB should always win, then they’d vote Colt. He is apparently quite popular with the former winners.
The Heisman Predictor was updated sunday when I saw McCoy on top
The odd thing though is that all last week they had McCoy in 4th with Tebow in first followed by Ingram and Gerhart, although I dont remember the order of those two. I have no idea why McCoy could have moved up so much with his poor performance and for that reason coupled with them having Tebow 1st last week, I dont trust Heisman Predictor.
To all Houston sports fans, Houston is the 4th biggest city in America, there will be traffic on the way to your respective sports game. Come Early, Be Loud, Stay Late.
HeismanPundit
Sez Colt wins. HP breaks it down and provides some excellent logic. He also strongly reserves the right to be completely incorrect, and cites the wide open nature of the race.
It seems unlikely
but I’ve heard a lot of people who vote say “I voted (random player) number one, and Suh number two”. Is it possible that Suh can “backdoor”, so to speak, into a Heisman? If everybody wants to vote him high, and McCoy, Ingram, and Gerhart split a lot of 1st place votes, could Suh actually pull it out despite not being first on very many ballots?
If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!
I don;t understnad the Colt predictions...
But the sites have more info than I do.
I feel that had Kirkendoll caught the pass at the 50, Colt runs away with this. Not only does the whole last couple of seconds never happen, Colt gets a nice highlight and Texas wins a lot more comfortably.
My how the media forgot Ingram's 30 yard performance against Auburn...
OK, so the news is he was injured a bit. What a quick recovery that was. At any rate, Colt is going to receive “body of work” votes for his career. Fair? No. But, neither is lambasting him for a bad game against a stellar defense.
Personally, I think Suh has been the “most outstanding player for 2009.”
Give it to the D Lineman. Excellent work sir.
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." - Will Muschamp
"Somebody will always break your records. It is how you live that counts." - Earl Campbell
Ingram's "injury"
Probably similar to Colt’s “flu” during the Oklahoma game. The damage to Ingram’s Heisman campaign during that game, IMO, should have been twofold…not only did he stink up the joint but we “discovered” that Trent Richardson could put up some numbers behind that O-line as well. Perhaps, in fact, better than Ingram.
Another Teaser
ESPN Insider Headline: “Heisman: It’s going to be McCoy”
I don’t subscribe to this or know their methology. Could be garbage.
ESPN's predictor is bogus
They have a ridiculous formula that awards points to each candidate based on stats, team wins, winning streaks, conference affiliation, etc.
These other sites try to predict based on reports of actual ballots. A lot of media voters will reveal who they voted for and in what order before the award is presented, and the former winners tend to reveal their votes to anyone who will ask. So the sites take that information and project a winner.
Stiffarmtrophy.com says they have been right every year since 2002, but I’m not sure if they’ve tried to predict a race that will be as close as this one appears to be. They have SOME of the votes from about a fifth of the ballots issued, and who knows how many of them are actually right. Even if you assume they all are, they’re projecting that the ones they don’t have will look pretty much exactly like the ones they do have, which is fine when you’re only dealing with two candidates who have a legit shot at winning (as is the case most years). When there are 4 guys (Tebow has no shot) who could win, you’re gonna need more than 20 to 25% of the ballots to accurately predict a winner.
Last year, while they were right about Bradford winning the trophy (not a shock; most people expected Bradford to win), they were way off on their prediction of how many votes Colt would get. They predicted him to finish 3rd behind Tebow, and he didn’t. But the race for 2nd in the voting was much closer than the race for 1st last year, so it is not a surprise that their projections for 2nd and 3rd place were incorrect, given the small percentage of ballots they claimed to have knowledge of.
Stiffarm has it looking like this as of today (and these are real votes or verified votes already submitted, as I understand it)
first second third ballots points
M Ingram 40 59 33 132 271
T Gerhart 46 46 32 124 262
N Suh 67 24 32 123 281
C McCoy 29 38 37 104 200
T Tebow 11 8 19 38 68
Forgive the sloppy formatting.
Disregard the above...
This is better…
Suh – 281 Total points
Ingram – 271 Total points
Gerhart – 262 Total points
McCoy – 200 Total points
Tebow – 68 Total points
because its Tebow
To all Houston sports fans, Houston is the 4th biggest city in America, there will be traffic on the way to your respective sports game. Come Early, Be Loud, Stay Late.
Heisman
For Heisman Voters to only look at the players last game before the vote is pretty bad and shows their stupidity. I don’t look at the heisman as the most prestigous award anymore. Looks like all the Heisman voters are biased and don’t look at the players full body of work. The whole season and records accumilated should all count.
if only the writers saw it the same way
but I dont think they do either. Its become a last month of the season award with an emphasis on MVP even though thats not what the award is for.
To all Houston sports fans, Houston is the 4th biggest city in America, there will be traffic on the way to your respective sports game. Come Early, Be Loud, Stay Late.
Von Miller
If you reward Suh for his dominance on the way to a 4-loss season, what about aggy and their 6-loss season. They almost beat Texas as well.
Those 4 losses
Were because of a non-existent offense. The Blackshirts gave up less than 12 ppg and Suh was a major reason why.
Hadoken!!
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