Morning Coffee: Sunshine Pumping Edition
As mentioned in Sunday's Celebration and Reflection post, there is plenty of time for worrying about what went wrong against Nebraska and what could possibly go wrong against Alabama. In that spirit, here's a sunshine pumping edition of Morning Coffee focusing on the positives.
Eyes on the prize. For the Texas football team, there were three goals for the season -- winning the Big 12 South, winning the Big 12 championship game, and then making it to Pasadena to play for the national championship. With the weak schedule, each goal became absolutely necessary to reach the next. A loss in conference play might not have kept Texas out of the championship game for the Big 12, but it would have kept them from having a chance at Pasadena.
My oponent preview for The Eyes of Texas magazine this summer was entitled "Expect Perfection" -- that's been the narrative the entire season. In fact, that was the narrative even stretching back to last season, the reason why all that success seemed like such a bonus. Texas fans are famous for outsized expectations, but how could there be more pressure than for a fanbase to expect a berth in the national championship game for two full seasons? For anything less than perfection to be a monumental disappointment?
Even though this post will focus on the positives of the Nebraska game and future posts will analyze the numerous breakdowns, ultimately the eyes of Texas rest on the ultimate prize -- that crystal football. The parallels to the last Texas appearance in the Rose Bowl are significant and could grow even more pronounced if Colt McCoy loses the Heisman to Mark Ingram this weekend. Like USC, Alabama is highly favored in the game, with pundits across the country writing off the chances of the Longhorns, just as they did in 2005. Like the 2005 team, these Longhorns are led by an experienced quarterback, one of the greatest in the history of the program, and backed by defenses filled with future NFL players. The visit to Pasadena will seemingly complete the cycle, as McCoy will fulfill the trust that Vince Young put in him when Young told McCoy he would be the next quarterback at Texas before trotting onto the field to win the national championship. The symmetry is perfect, just like this season.
The bottom line is this -- in the only two close games this season, Texas found ways to win, the ultimate mark of a champion. There was no room for imperfection, the disappointment of a loss too great to even fathom. So they did not lose and now have a chance to win it all.
The clutch kicker. Throughout most of the season, the reliability of Hunter Lawrence seemed like a bonus, a luxury even -- just a way to keep putting points on the board even if the offense stalled on a long drive, the guy who would maintain momentum with his solid kicking. Against Oklahoma, he hit all three of his field goals, including twice from 42 yards, each kick crucial to the eventual win. For Texas fans, it was heartening -- proof that the kicker would be reliable in a big game in the distant future. Most believed that if Lawrence was going to kick a game-winning field goal, it would be on the biggest of stages in the Rose Bowl.
Except fate wrote a different script -- the struggling Texas offense, stymied all evening by Ndamukong Suh and a swarming horde of defensive backs, used two big Nebraska penalties to move into field goal range down by a single point, then nearly ran all the time off the clock because the four-year starter at quarterback didn't know that the clock doesn't stop on a ball thrown out of bounds until it hits something. Hardly a chip shot, the subsequent kick was the most pressure-packed of Lawrence's life. To top it all, the senior kicker would attempt the first game-winning kick of his collegiate career.
A miss would mean a lifetime of ignominy, known as the sorry kicker who cost the Longhorns a chance at a crystal football. A make would mean a place in Longhorn lore among the all-time greats, a lifetime of congratulations from strangers and free drinks at the bar. Only this wasn't a chip-shot field goal, it was a 46 yarder, a distance from which even the best kickers in the NFL are not automatic. Hell, the Redskins lost to the Saints this weekend because their kicker, now unemployed, shanked a 23 yarder, the type of kick random fans make at halftime promotions every weekend across the country.
Not only that, but the big Nebraska line stood in the way, responsible for five blocked kicks on the season, with Suh repsonsible for three himself. Perhaps cognizant of their position on the right side of the Texas line and despite kicking from the left hash, Lawrence angled the kick left, wide of the beefy hands raised to deflect it, to destroy the Texas title hopes. Left just far enough, but not too far, with just enough draw to bring it back right to sneak through the left upright with only inches to spare.
In the ensuing celebration, Lawrence found himself at the bottom of a exultant dogpile, then lofted on the shoulders of his teammates as the Longhorn nation let loose with a hearty exhale. Though the game may have ultimately been unsatisfying, there could be no doubt that Lawrence had proved his mettle in the most clutch of situations, making sure that if there is a next time for such a kick, it will be on the biggest of stages. And the anxiety for Texas fans will be much less pronounced -- after all, Hunter Lawrence has done this before.
Malcolm Williams and a double move. The big sophomore receiver didn't have a particularly high number of catches against Nebraska, but each of his three was important in the context of when they occurred -- the first catch, for 16 yards, picked up a first down to move Texas deep into Nebraska territory on the drive that resulted in the only touchdown of the game, the second catch came as McCoy was under pressure on the long drive that ended with Dejon Gomes taking the ball from Dan Buckner, and the final catch came on 3rd and 16 on the same drive with McCoy under pressure again. All three catches came with a defender in his face and all three were difficult. In pressure moments, Williams made the catches.
In a game when the Longhorn receivers had trouble getting separation, it was Williams who most consistently was able to beat press man coverage by getting inside releases on two of his catches. On the third, he paused in his stride and gave just enough of a shake to get the defender to bite on the hitch and, had McCoy had time to set his feet and deliver the ball downfield, beat the defender enough to pick up a huge gain on the play. The concern on the part of the Nebraska cornerbacks to match his physicality with physical play of their own also led to a pass interefence penalty, as the Husker corner had his hands on Williams trying to push him towards the sideline after McCoy had released the ball.
And it could have been an even bigger day -- Williams got behind a Nebraska defender on another third-down play, but McCoy threw the ball out of bounds, failing to give his open receiver a chance to make a play on the ball. Unlike the smaller Texas receivers, Williams is better suited to beating press coverage, using his strength to get off the line of scrimmage and when he does get an inside release, he can screen defenders with his size. When McCoy is under pressure, the ability to throw the football up for Williams to go get it makes him a security blanket for the senior quarterback almost on par with Jordan Shipley.
Shovel passes, quarterback draws, and a zone read. It was an astounding sight. On the second play from scrimmage, following a terrible chop block penalty on Chris Hall (one of two such terrible calls on the night), Greg Davis dialed up a shovel pass to Tre' Newton and it worked, picking up 25 yards, perhaps the first time in years that Davis not only called it at the right time, but that the Longhorns executed it correctly, with Hall getting downfield and delivering a block. Twice more Davis called the play and twice more it worked. Against a defense with aggresive defensive tackles trying to get upfield, using the shovel pass was some of Davis' best work in the game.
Likewise, with the Nebraska defensive tackles getting upfield and the linebackers either bailing out into coverage or not on the field at all, the quarterback draw was also an effective play for Texas, as McCoy scored the only touchdown of the game on the play and picked up positive yardage every other time the Longhorns called it with the exception of the final drive when the Texas was already in field goal range. Besides the shovel pass, one of the few other positive plays early in the game was a zone read McCoy kept for a 14-yard gain, but only called one other time. In fact, besides an eight-yard run by Newton, all the other runs of eight yards or more came from McCoy.
Looking back, Davis probably should have called the quarterback draw and used the zone read more often because the zone play and counter were not particularly effective in the game and power was only slightly better. One of the benefits of running the zone read is that the inside zone play becomes more effective because it puts doubt into the mind of the defenders, particularly the backside defensive end and linebacker and giving the offensive line better numbers and an extra combo block. Since Nebraska contained McCoy in the pocket on passing plays, the called runs were the only way use McCoy's legs and his legs were the most effective weapon for the Texas running game.
Playmaking defense. It's been a theme all season, so it's no surprise that the Texas defenders were able to make plays in big moments, particularly the secondary. The Nebraska offensive plan revolved around setting up play-action passes downfield with their running game and mixing in some screens, but the Longhorns never sold out to stop the run, instead controlling the line of scrimmage with the front four and strong play from Keenan Robinson, Roddrick Muckelroy, and Emmanuel Acho, while keeping the secondary back to take away deep passes.
On the first attempt downfield, Blake Gideon intercepted a Zac Lee pass thrown too far inside and with too much air under it. Then, after Nebraska blocked Justin Tucker's punt at the start of the second quarter, the Huskers took a shot at the end zone, but unfortunately decided to pick on Aaron Williams, who intercepted another pass with too much air under it, perhaps keeping points off the board -- Nebraska needed only a handful of yards on that drive to reach field goal range. In the third quarter, Muckelroy's interception, only the second of his career, helped the Longhorns win the field position battle over the next several possessions that eventually led to a field goal, as Texas needed no more production than a 12-yard run from McCoy and a pass interference penalty to get into range.
Those were the big plays, that ones that show up in the box score as turnovers. However, there were other plays equally as important, ones that don't show up in the box score. At the start of the fourth quarter, Nebraska had the ball at the Texas 38 yardline, right at the edge of Alex Henery's field goal range -- he hit one early in the game from 52 yards that looked like it had enough distance to have been good from nearly 60. On second down, the Huskers went downfield to their best deep threat, Niles Paul, who had worked behind Curtis Brown just enough to be open. Lee finally delivered an accurate pass and Paul went up over Brown to make the catch. But just as he secured the football, Earl Thomas launched his body into the Nebraska receiver and jarred the pass loose, a play that might have saved the game for Texas. The type of play that only the best defensive backs in the country make. Still, Henery would have had a good chance at making the 55-yard field goal, but the Longhorns defense made another play on third down -- Keenan Robinson read the screen pass from the start of the play and beat a blocker to take down Rex Burkhead and knock the Huskers five yards back and out of field goal range, forcing a punt.
Then, the Nebraska offense got the ball at the Texas 10 yardline following the long punt return by Niles Paul, the defense stopped Burkhead twice and on third down Chykie Brown's defense was just good enough to force Brandon Kinne to catch the ball out of bounds. Nebraska kicked a field goal when a touchdown probably would have won the game.
With the offense providing the defense with almost no margin for error, the defense made no errors and came up with big plays with the game on the line. Without having to load the box, the front six and seven of the Texas defense stopped the downhill rushing game of Nebraska, holding the line and disengaging from blockers to make plays. Ben Alexander played more snaps than he ever has and effectively plugged the middle, while Sam Acho led the team in tackles. Nolan Brewster rebounded from a poor game against A&M to blow up two plays by submarining Suh -- excellent work by a safety taking on a big defensive tackle. And all that makes the struggles against A&M seem like a thing of the past.
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Defensive Front Four
GoBR did you notice on some Nebraska possessions that our front four consisted of 3 DT’s? I do not remember the exact quarter, but I remember seeing B Alexander, K. Randall, and L. Houston all on the field at the same time. That line up was a great idea by Muschamp…
Thanks for this
I needed this perspectve to feel better about the Nebraska game and psych up for Alabama. Well done, and much appreciated!
Interesting observation about the three tackles on the field
Fit into the diabolical plan by Muschamp … to stuff the run … with minimal personnel. Nebraska did the same thing to us, except their focus was on stopping the pass.
Bothers me that media types have downplayed how magnificent our defense was. Of the Nebs 100 yards, nearly half were on that final drive. They averaged a little over a first down a quarter.
"I've always been an admirer of Texas' clock management. Now, I am completely sold." -- Les Miles
by Distributor of the Football on Dec 9, 2009 2:20 PM CST reply actions
And McElroy isn't much better than Lee
The key will be in stopping the Alabama offensive line and Ingram. Obviously both are good at what they do, but their line isn’t so terrific that the UT defensive line is going to be overmatched. It should be an epic matchup.
What won’t be an epic matchup, unless there’s a lot of improvement, is the battle between the Alabama front seven and the UT OL. That’s going to require some major work by the line and effective blitz pickups by the backs.
by burntorangehorn on Dec 9, 2009 2:42 PM CST up reply actions
McElroy is better than Lee
And Julio Jones, though not productive this year, is a better talent then any of the NU receivers.
They aren’t world beaters, but give then credit, their passing game is better than NU’s.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 9, 2009 2:56 PM CST up reply actions
I agree
I don’t think that Alabama should be able to get a free pass after almost getting beat by Tennessee and Auburn, but I do think that McElroy is MUCH better than Lee.
This is going to be a fight.
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Dec 9, 2009 4:04 PM CST up reply actions
You mean it won't be a rout ...
like Nebraska?
I know, I jest. I think we were not prepared for the defensive heat that Nebraska would bring. Their dime scheme with rushing four bamboozled us, and our receivers were not getting open. And then we kept shooting ourselves in the foot (INTS, chop block calls, albeit bogus, false starts, dropping TD passes that would have sealed the game) so they kept their momentum and belief.
We were out of rhythm all night.
"I've always been an admirer of Texas' clock management. Now, I am completely sold." -- Les Miles
by Distributor of the Football on Dec 9, 2009 4:58 PM CST up reply actions
Very true.
I know that Alabama as a whole is better at defense, but there isn’t a player on their team that is better than Suh.
Suh might be the most defensive tackle I can remember watching college football.
Someone that big and strong shouldn’t be that fast. He sold his soul to the devil or something.
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Dec 10, 2009 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
Please.
I love Hampton, but I think Suh is faster. He reminds me more of the NT for the Dallas Cowboys Jay Ratliff, but much stronger.
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Dec 10, 2009 2:40 PM CST up reply actions
Of course Suh is faster
he’s also about 40 lbs lighter.
Get off your knees Greg, you're blowin' the game.
I made the Hampton comparison on another site
I think they’re very similar in how disruptive they were on the pocket at the college level, but what I stated at the time was that I hadn’t seen the same motor from Suh on a regular basis that Hampton almost always brought. I also said that he was more physically gifted than Hampton. I will admit that Suh’s performance in the Big 12 championship game was as good a showing of “motor skills” as I’ve seen in a while, and if he plays like that every game, he’ll erase what I perceive as his only noticeable weakness non-strength.
by burntorangehorn on Dec 10, 2009 4:04 PM CST up reply actions
Sort of.
McElroy is incredibly inconsistent. At his worst, he’s just as bad as Zac Lee. At his best, he’s…I don’t know….Stephen Garcia? the 2009 version of Jevan Snead but with a weaker arm? 2006-era Colt McCoy?
Julio Jones, on the other hand, is much better than anyone NU has. That being said, if bad McElroy shows up, it doesn’t much matter how good Julio Jones is.
But McElroy has never lost a game!
I dont even think he knows how to lose!
Remember how much Zac Lee has been reigned in as well. In his first 7 games he had over 30 pass attempts 4 times, averaging over 28 attempts per game. In his last 5 games, since the Iowa State debacle and benching, he threw more than 20 balls once (21 attempts against KU) and has averaged 16 attempts per game (or 18.3 attempts if you want to throw out OU).
McElroy certainly hasn’t cost his team like Lee has, throwing a pick every 78 attempts as opposed to Lee’s every 28 attempts.
Again Im not saying McElroy is a world beater, but Lee is really bad, and if John Parker Wilson can assassinate a President and be the best QB in school history, McElroy can do pretty good things in that system.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Dec 10, 2009 9:52 AM CST up reply actions
It's going to require some cleverness on offense
I think it’s obvious at this point that we could be considered a ‘finesse’ offense due to difficulties with the line. The OL is not going to run over the ‘Bama line in anyone’s wildest dreams so the coaches will need to game plan some things to make them more effective. Rolling pockets, bootlegs, screens, draws, reverses, shuttle passes, these types of things. Just confuse the hell out of them a la Muschamp.
And on defense just Muschamp. Stop the run, apply pressure and blanket Jones.
Pretty easy, huh?
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Dec 10, 2009 11:26 AM CST up reply actions
So who blankets Jones?
’Bama has some other decent targets, but no one super dangerous, so I think double-coverage on Jones is a given in man, for the most part. AW and Earl?
by burntorangehorn on Dec 10, 2009 12:20 PM CST up reply actions
Talk about thinking outside the box
It was a masterful performance by both defensive coaches and players, one of the best I’ve seen at any level. Of course the NU offense was painfully predictable but the performance itself was worthy of consideration for top 10 best UT defensive performances.
Let the media types feed the dragon and let us ponder and prepare to slay it.
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Dec 10, 2009 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
Thanks, ghost...
As painful as the offense and kick coverage teams were to watch, they overshadowed a dominant performance by the defense. Nice summation of the highlights.
I saw the same plays working on offense: QB draw, double moves and fades to Malcolm in single coverage and, particularly, zone read. Part of what was so maddening about Davis’ play-calling in this game was how seldom we saw these plays. He kept going back to things that were clearly doomed (e.g. dropping Colt straight back where he usually took a sack or hurried a throw).
I thought we should have run a lot more zone read. Now that Colt has license to run, it is a true dual threat option that forces the defense to stay home. Tre was running hard, not fumbling, and making the most of what little room he got. Even if they stuff it, you have still made them think. When you are physically overmatched, the first thing you want to do is make the talented player hesitate long enough to think.
how about moving the pocket and rolling out?
I mean, at a time other than when we are trying to run the clock down to a nano-second above 0:00.
"I've always been an admirer of Texas' clock management. Now, I am completely sold." -- Les Miles
by Distributor of the Football on Dec 9, 2009 5:01 PM CST up reply actions
I think they'll have to do this
to avoid the kind of embarassment that was Saturday.
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Dec 10, 2009 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
Pump It Up
Thanks for the positive vibe. There was a lot of good to draw from. Surely you have also noted the insatiable negativity appetite on other boards. As fans, we can criticize but a lot of the spewing is down right uncalled for. I am calling it out when I see it.
Two plays stand out as real difference makers. The blow up that Earl made was critical as you outlined. The other play that kept Nebraska’s hopes alive was Kirk’s big drop. I watched that replay frame by frame and he did not watch the ball into his hands due to the fact he LOST SIGHT OF IT IN THAT RIDUCULOUS MONSTROSITY OF A TV SCREEN. I really felt sorry for him. That thing should be outlawed. What a distraction. The body language of Colt and James after that drop did portend the flow of the rest of the game.
"We don't freestyle Texas Fight, big boy." - Coach Brown
by TXStampede on Dec 9, 2009 5:28 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Great point, TXStampede, re: Kirkendoll's drop....
Had no idea the jumbo screen played a part.
It really is a game of inches. Our fans (me included) moan about how close we came to blowing the game-winning FG. However, if Kirkendoll hangs onto that pass, it is 17-6, game over, and a lot of this is moot.
A TD there doesn’t wipe away an awful game from GD and the OL but making a big play there to put it away sure would have felt better to everyone.
All of the post-mortem hand-wringing reminds me....
of the line from Dan Jenkins’ “Semi-Tough”
“What could’ve happened DID. Scoreboard done said so.”
Ding ding ding....ringer
Timeless and well played. Longhorn nation needs to move forward in unison. WE’RE TEXAS! Said and done.
"We don't freestyle Texas Fight, big boy." - Coach Brown
by TXStampede on Dec 9, 2009 6:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed about the post-mortem
hand-wringing. It was a bad matchup with the UT O-line and give Nebraska credit for making the plays to keep it close. This will be a completely different game with different matchups (some favoring Texas, some not). It should be close and Alabama’s probably right to be 3-5 point favorite. Let’s stop acting like we’re Rice and are a HUGE underdog.
Let’s not confuse Alabama’s offense with Nebraska’s. It’s light-years better. They are much, much, much more physical on offense. McElroy is clearly better than Lee (the worst BCS QB in my opinion), Jones is better than Paul, and Bama’s RBs are better than NU’s.
My biggest concern would be that Alabama’s schedule is just a lot better than Texas. Alabama has arguably played a team as good as Texas. Texas hasn’t remotely played a team as good as Alabama. I just don’t know how that’s going to play out.
Great Job All Year GoBR
These have been the best reads I’ve found anywhere. Thanks for all your time and work put into the posts.
I have sensed an affinity with you all year regarding Malcolm Williams. Watching him all year and finally seeing some of his highschool tapes, I think I see the rift. The kid has some “chrome”. I mean that as a term used in the horse industry. When a horse jumps out, has unique markings, and has a flashy look then he is said to have the “chrome”.
Williams has a spirited edge that I personally like. He isn’t over the top, but plays large and with attitude and does not have the look of an atypical Mack Brown football player ala McCoy, Shipley, or Earl Thomas which is all fine by me. Let the kid be himself within the realm of good sportsmanship, but by all means, let him shine.
I look for Williams to be Gilbert’s #1 go to guy next year.
more sunshine pumping
I’ve refined my formula for predicting the final score of the championship game. I have averaged each teams offensive and defensive scoring production, and corrected for strength of schedule bias by multiplying on a game by game basis by the opposing teams season win percentage. The downward correction to the final averaged score that was introduced by bias correction was 55%, so I multiplied the averaged score by 1/0.55 and came up with a final score of:
Texas 24
Bama 22
Thank you for that
Stamp it and mail it.
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Dec 10, 2009 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
You are off by a point
My calculation has Texas 23-21, with Lawrence doing it again … this time with the clock at 0:00 because Alabama was offsides when they blocked his first attempt from 54 yards to win it. Then, Hunter’s 49-yarder kissed off the right upright (adjustment from Nebraska) to win it.
Note: Texas recovered a disputed fumble near midfield as Alabama was trying to run out the clock (reversal on replay), followed by a very questionable defensive holding penalty.
Question: Does TCU — the winner of the Poinsettia Bowl II — now get its rightful national championship, since Texas was so unconvincing in this victory?
"I've always been an admirer of Texas' clock management. Now, I am completely sold." -- Les Miles
by Distributor of the Football on Dec 10, 2009 1:46 PM CST up reply actions
The bottom line is this — in the only two close games this season, Texas found ways to win
Funny… Alabama did the same exact thing. Hmm
by tidefanstuckatlsu on Dec 10, 2009 2:16 PM CST reply actions
How is Bama a big favorite? Last I saw, Bama was favored by 5.
You are going to have to score more than 20 to beat Bama. Your past performances against OU and NU are not encouraging.
by miketag on Dec 10, 2009 8:39 PM CST via mobile reply actions

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