NCAA Tournament Projections as of February 9th

by awiggo on Feb 9, 2009 1:00 PM CST in Basketball Comment 16 comments

As the Longhorns struggle, let’s take a minute to view college basketball through a national lens. There are a full four weeks left in the regular season and another week of conference tournaments before Selection Sunday on March 15th. That is a ton of time, but it’s fun to start projecting the top seeds. Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament.

I will start posting my top seeds on Mondays. These are if the season ended today and are listed by strength within each seed as well.

No. 1: Connecticut, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Duke
No. 2: Louisville, North Carolina, Michigan State, Memphis
No. 3: Marquette, Clemson, Xavier, Wake Forest
No. 4: Kansas, UCLA, Villanova, Purdue

Next Four: Gonzaga, Missouri, Washington, Butler

Big 12 Bids (4)
Lock: Oklahoma, Kansas
Likely: Missouri, Texas
Bubble: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas State

Thoughts?

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I think...

…that if you put Baylor on the bubble, you have to keep Texas A&M on the bubble, too. But both teams are headed in the wrong direction with only a month left in the regular season.

We'll carry the banner high!
Bring On The Cats

by TB on Feb 9, 2009 1:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I agree with that

Where do you think Texas projects?
7,8 or 9 If you ask me.

USA/ESPN rankings came out Texas is not ranked for the first time in a long time

Blazz

by blazzinken on Feb 9, 2009 1:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Technically we ranked

at #27

by goingforthecorner on Feb 9, 2009 1:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to know who voted OU #1

UConn should be anonymous #1. Best team in the best conference.

by goingforthecorner on Feb 9, 2009 1:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Today

I think Texas is still safely in and probably between a #7 – #9, at the lowest.

In most years Texas would be much closer to not getting in than they are this season. The mid-majors are not as strong (A-10, Conference USA, and Missour Valley) and the SEC and Pac-10 are really bad. The Big XII is not outstanding but I think we’ll get five in safely.

Texas does need to win at least four more games to feel relatively safe.

--AW--

by awiggo on Feb 9, 2009 1:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

But which four?

I am optimistic about OSU, Tech and Baylor, all at home. That’s three. The odds of a fourth win look daunting. OU may well be too tough. KU on the road, even Ags on the road, too scary. Colorado? Terrible record, and 1-4 over their last five. But they just played both OU and KU close on the road, and they get us at home. As for OSU, their only home losses this season have been against Missouri (by 2, in OT I think) and OU (by 8). It all looks gloomy from the depths of this 3-game slump. But I’m confident Rick & team have the talent and heart to finish strong, so I’ll put my money on a road win @CU and a home court upset of the dreaded Sooner.

by NYCHorn on Feb 9, 2009 11:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Mizzou is going to be a lock

Agreed on just getting 4 in this year (tied with the Mountain West according to the most recent Bracketology). OSU and Baylor are both on the “first 4 out”.

I am rooting for us to salvage a 5/6 seed. With the right matchup we could beat some of these 3/4 seeds in the 2nd round if we just so happen to escape with a W over the 11/12 seed. Any seed 7 or lower is a disaster.

by goingforthecorner on Feb 9, 2009 1:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

An 8/9 seed almost guarantees a second round loss

You don’t want to have to play a #1 seed on the third or fourth day of the tournament.

by GhostofBigRoy on Feb 9, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yea...

hopefully we can put in work to push us up to a 7 seed

by Frazier90 on Feb 9, 2009 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Anything but 5.

The 5-12 game is always upset ridden, and I don’t want to be that team.

by the1austin on Feb 9, 2009 6:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No so bad

You will need to beat that #1 seed anyway to reach the Final Four. Maybe it’s easier to catch them early in an upset. Then you would get the #4/5 winner and then the #2/#3 winner. If you have a #7 seed, you hit #2 in the second round, which is almost as bad. Then it would be #3 and #1, so you end up facing the top 3 teams. There are no easy roads.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Feb 10, 2009 10:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs