Bursting Bubbles and Final NCAA Tournament Projections

by awiggo on Mar 15, 2009 10:37 AM CDT in Basketball Comment 24 comments

One final day of basketball before the bracket is announced at 5 pm (central) Sunday on CBS and on ESPN, just a few seconds later. Does anyone want a #1 seed? North Carolina, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Michigan State, and Oklahoma all lost in their conference tournaments. I can’t imagine all four #1s making it to the Final Four in Detroit, like they did last year. In fact, I’d be surprised if even three top seeds make it to the final two rounds.

Congratulations to Missouri, USC, Louisville and Memphis for winning conference championships in the Big 12, Pac 10, Big East, and Conference USA respectively. The ACC, SEC, and Big 10 titles will be decided this afternoon.

Here is my list of busted bubble teams. Say hello to the NIT. Another team will join this list if Mississippi State defeats Tennessee in the SEC tournament final. UPDATE: Add St. Mary's to the bubble bursting list, courtesy of Mississippi State's SEC tournament championship.

Big East: Providence, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Georgetown
ACC: Miami, Virginia Tech
Big Ten: Penn State, Northwestern
SEC: South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, Auburn
Pac 10: Arizona
Atlantic 10: Rhode Island, St. Joe’s
Mtn West: UNLV, New Mexico
C-USA: Tulsa, UAB
Missouri Valley: Creighton
West Coast: St Mary's

I agree with Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s Bracketologist, on 64 of 65 teams. I’ve got San Diego State in and Creighton out. He has the opposite.

Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament. I am assuming that Duke defeats ~~Maryland~~ Florida State.

No 1: Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Connecticut
No 2: Memphis, Duke, Michigan State, Oklahoma
No 3: Kansas, Missouri, Villanova, Wake Forest
No 4: Washington, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Florida State

Next Four: Xavier, Illinois, Arizona State, Purdue

Big 12 Bids (6)
Lock: Oklahoma (2 seed), Kansas (3), Missouri (3), Texas (7)
Likely: Oklahoma State (9), Texas A&M (9)
Bubble Burst: Kansas State, Baylor

Thoughts?

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Comments

Good stuff

I’d flop Memphis and UConn (but they are the clear 4 and 5 teams on the S-curve). I also think Purdue will slip into the top 16 should they win today (over Arizona State or Gonzaga).

Personally think Mizzou might deserve the Big XII 2-seed, but know that won’t happen.

Just for clarification, Duke will play Florida State today for the ACC title (not Maryland)

by DoubleB on Mar 15, 2009 10:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Corrected

Thanks.

Memphis and UConn is the debate for the last #1 seed. It is just hard for me to put Memphis on the top line. UConn has a higher RPI (6 vs. 8), a better Strength of Schedule (25 vs. 54) and played in, by far, the tougher league. You are also right that it won’t matter as both are probably headed west as the 1 and 2 in one order or the other.

Purdue: Other than Michigan State, I tend to overlook the Big 10 in almost every circumstance. Just my bias.

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 15, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't flip them

After looking at the likely bracketing, it’s probably better for my team if Memphis gets the #1 (it practically forces the committee to match up UConn and UNC, unless they really want to ship the top #2 out west for balance reasons), but I absolutely hate the idea of rewarding a team with four RPI top 50 wins and three losses with a #1 seed.

by SpartanDan on Mar 15, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did the loss to UT seal K-State's fate?

Do you think they would have gotten the nod over A&M (coupled with A&M’s first round exit) or at least been closer than the Aggies to making the Dance if they’d just beaten Texas in the Big XII tourney? If so, that was a costly loss and proof that one game can make a huge difference.

Be nobody but yourself in a world that desperately wants you to be like everybody else.

by 54b on Mar 15, 2009 11:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

No

Kansas State needed a win over Texas and probably a run to the tournament final, at least, to warrant a bid. The bubble is just too tight. The Wildcats have an RPI of 82 and an embarassing non-conference schedule. They lost to Iowa, Oregon, and Kentucky in the non-conference. Not good. Also, six of their nine conference wins came over Big 12 North opponents.

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 15, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

#7 Seed

BTW, if Texas does luck into a 7 seed and wins in the first round, who would we want to see as a 2 seed?

If my seeds are right, Oklahoma is not an option because we’re both in the same conference and the committee usually tries to avoid rematches, so Michigan State is probably not an option either. That leaves Memphis or Duke.

As a Duke fan and watcher of at least 20 Duke games this season, this is a no brainer. Texas can beat Duke. The Dukies have no inside presence and would struggle to handle Dexter, especially in a half court game. Duke also relies too heavily on the three pointer for points. An off shooting game, think last year first round vs Belmont, and the Dukies could easily go home during the first weekend.

Memphis on the other hand is sick defensively, physical, and long. This is the exact type of team against which Texas struggles—think USC two years ago, Kansas State this year, and Michigan State just about every time we play them.

So, root hard for a #7 seed and Duke as the #2. As sad as it is, I will be very scared to see Memphis or any of the other 1 seeds in the second round.

Don’t even mention that I’m getting way ahead of myself. I know I am. Texas could easily be an 8 or 9 and could certainly lose in the first round to Butler, BYU, Ohio State, Boston College, etc.

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 15, 2009 11:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I believe they try to make sure teams from the same conference don’t matchup until at least the Elite 8.

I agree 100% with Duke. We could get blown out of the building if they are on, but they are definitely beatable. I’m not as worried about Michigan State as you are, but Duke is the team to draw.

by DoubleB on Mar 15, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

10 days ago I said this about #1 seeds...

UConn, Pitt, N.Car, Coin Flip for Louisville and Memphis

-rBr-

by run Bevo run on Mar 5, 2009 4:21 PM CST

i think now Memphis only makes sense as a #1 to geographically send West.

-rBr-

by run Bevo run on Mar 15, 2009 12:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Texas in the same opening pod as Duke....

I’m thinking that happens today.

by silky51 on Mar 15, 2009 1:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

How is Baylor's bubble burst?

Or more specifically, how are they even being considered a bubble team? I was under the impression that going 5-11 in conference removed you from at-large discussion.

If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!

by circa1015 on Mar 15, 2009 1:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Not really a bubble team

You’re right, Baylor is not really a bubble team. I’m just pointing out that the Bears were 40 minutes away from the tournament because of the automatic bid.

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 15, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

SEC

There was no better microcosm of the SEC this season than the last minute of that championship game. Someone’s bubble just burst though.

by DoubleB on Mar 15, 2009 2:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Well said

I’m guessing St. Mary’s just lost their berth.

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 15, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bracketology

If this happens, it would be horrible.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology?id=3232345

We’re in 8 seed in Greensborough, stuck in the UNC bracket.

He has Memphis as a 1 seed btw, but not in the South region, which is in Memphis for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.

by goingforthecorner on Mar 15, 2009 2:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Memphis

isn’t going to get to stay in the region which feeds to Memphis. That is not fair and may even be against the rules. I don’t think you can play tournament games on your home court. I could be wrong though.

Memphis or UConn will be the fourth best #1 seed and the best #2 seed. Because of the S curve seeding, they will both be in the same bracket. The will also both be in the West based on the geography of the other #1 seeds.

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 15, 2009 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right, but

if I’m not mistaken they could play in the same CITY as long as their home games weren’t in that arena. In this case, Memphis plays in FedEx so it’s not possible for them to host the South (even if they were undefeated).

As examples of where this comes into play is that I believe Indiana could play in Canseco Fieldhouse and Rice could play in the Toyota Center. I haven’t looked at these rules in years so they may have changed.

by DoubleB on Mar 15, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where is the Memphis regional exactly?

Is the at the NBA’s Memphis Grizzlies arena or at University of Memphis’ basketball arena?

by goingforthecorner on Mar 15, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I presume FedEx

FedEx hosts both the pro and college Memphis teams.

by DoubleB on Mar 15, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Host: Memphis

Again, I’m not totally sure but I don’t think they can be in the Memphis Region.

The host is listed at University of Memphis — http://www.bracketography.com/ncaa-tournament-sites/

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 15, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correct

The host is Memphis, the venue is FedExForum. There is no way that Memphis can play in the South Regional (regardless of record).

by DoubleB on Mar 15, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Memphis is the host team

They can’t be put in the South.

Also, the committee doesn’t follow a strict S-curve at the top – they try to balance the regions, but they do allow some flexibility for geographic reasons. (They’re even less strict about it further down, but the rules are that they have to keep the “true seed” total of the 1-2-3-4 teams within a five-point range for all four regions – see here.) I think it’s more likely that Kansas gets shipped out as a #2 and they send some high-level 3 and 4 seeds out west rather than the highest #2. Then again, if the debate for the last #1 is extremely close the committee may just throw up their hands and say “let them fight it out in the Elite Eight”.

by SpartanDan on Mar 15, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs