NCAA Tournament Projections as of March 2nd
by awiggo on Mar 2, 2009 1:00 PM CST
in Basketball
11 comments
The end of conference season is just a week away. The top team, Kansas, has all but locked up an outright title, but there is lots of drama still left. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri have sewn up the top three spots, in some order, and first round byes in the Big XII tourney as well. However, the race for the fourth spot is still a good one.
What is likely is a tie for fourth place. It could be a two-way, three-way, or even four-way tie for fourth place. The conference’s tiebreaking procedures can be found here. They are pretty complicated and probably not worth exploring until after the midweek games, at the earliest. The tiebreakers are very dependent on whether teams are from the same division or from different division. Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M are all still alive for fourth place.
While fourth place in the conference is a legitimate goal, the real goal for these mid-level teams is a berth in the NCAA tournament. The Big XII is well positioned for five bids and could land a sixth depending on how other bubble teams close.
Below is my listing of bubble teams by conference. Losses by these teams could help the Big XII land a sixth team in the NCAA tournament.
Big East: Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Providence
ACC: Boston College, Miami, Maryland
Big Ten: Penn State, Michigan
SEC: Florida, Kentucky
Pac 10: Arizona, USC
Atlantic 10: Dayton, St. Joe’s, Rhode Island
Mtn West: UNLV, New Mexico
Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament.
These are if the season ended today. They are listed by strength within each seed as well.
No. 1: Connecticut, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma
No. 2: Memphis, Michigan State, Duke, Louisville
No. 3: Kansas, Wake Forest, Washington, Villanova
No. 4: Xavier, UCLA, Clemson, Missouri
Next Four: Purdue, Arizona State, Marquette, LSU
Big 12 Bids (5)
Lock: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Likely: Texas
Bubble: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Kansas State
Thoughts?
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Once again out of top 25.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings?seasonYear=2009&weekNumber=17&seasonType=2
Ranked #28 in Coaches Poll. #33 in AP poll.
by goingforthecorner on Mar 2, 2009 2:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Likely?
We’ll be lucky if we make the NIT. Rick Barnes sucks. The Erwin Center sucks. Our conference schedule sucks. Who gave us that schedule? Oklahoma twice??? Colorado and Iowa State? Talk about bringing down our strength of schedule.
And while I’m on the subject of scheduling, Mack Brown couldn’t schedule his way out of a hat. The non-conference games are a joke. Boooooooo.
by Jason Mayer on Mar 2, 2009 3:15 PM CST reply actions 3 recs
Are you serious?
If so, please read PB’s Morning Coffee.
--AW--
by awiggo on Mar 2, 2009 5:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL cmon AW this one was obvious
looks like it’s time to fix your sarcasm meter.
by goingforthecorner on Mar 2, 2009 6:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think a win tonight solidifies a birth in the tourney
9-7 in conference (assuming a win tonight and lose at KU), and a pretty tough schedule out of conference puts us in a good spot.
It does not look like those top 4 are changing, the other night on college basketball final they mentioned OU being in the west region in Phoenix and playing at the University of Phoenix stadium. They brought up the last few times the OU football team played in the fiesta bowl and the games against WVU and Boise. Kind of comical.
Blazz
by blazzinken on Mar 2, 2009 3:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Don't lose out
If Texas wins one of its last 3 (Baylor, Kansas, Big XII tourney opener), I think they are in relatively comfortably (seed at 10 or better). If they lose out, I think it gets pretty dicey, but the bubble is a real shitshow this year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Texas get in after losing 4 in a row to end the year. The non-conference wins over UCLA and Villanova still carry weight.
Some teams are going to get in this year because they HAVE to take 65 teams. A Texas team that loses it’s last 4 would be in that group.
by DoubleB on Mar 2, 2009 4:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
We are getting the benefit of the doubt over OSU, TAMU, and K-State
because of the wins over Villanova, Wisconsin, etc. I think a win tonight seals the deal. UT with 20 wins gets in.
by the1austin on Mar 2, 2009 5:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OU and KU
I would imagine that OU’s 1 seed depends on winning out, including the Big 12 tourney. KU might also get a 2 if they win.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
by Caradoc on Mar 2, 2009 6:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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