NCAA Tournament Projections as of March 2nd

The end of conference season is just a week away. The top team, Kansas, has all but locked up an outright title, but there is lots of drama still left. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri have sewn up the top three spots, in some order, and first round byes in the Big XII tourney as well. However, the race for the fourth spot is still a good one.

What is likely is a tie for fourth place. It could be a two-way, three-way, or even four-way tie for fourth place. The conference’s tiebreaking procedures can be found here. They are pretty complicated and probably not worth exploring until after the midweek games, at the earliest. The tiebreakers are very dependent on whether teams are from the same division or from different division. Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M are all still alive for fourth place.

While fourth place in the conference is a legitimate goal, the real goal for these mid-level teams is a berth in the NCAA tournament. The Big XII is well positioned for five bids and could land a sixth depending on how other bubble teams close.

Below is my listing of bubble teams by conference. Losses by these teams could help the Big XII land a sixth team in the NCAA tournament.

Big East: Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Providence
ACC: Boston College, Miami, Maryland
Big Ten: Penn State, Michigan
SEC: Florida, Kentucky
Pac 10: Arizona, USC
Atlantic 10: Dayton, St. Joe’s, Rhode Island
Mtn West: UNLV, New Mexico

Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament.

These are if the season ended today. They are listed by strength within each seed as well.

No. 1: Connecticut, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma
No. 2: Memphis, Michigan State, Duke, Louisville
No. 3: Kansas, Wake Forest, Washington, Villanova
No. 4: Xavier, UCLA, Clemson, Missouri

Next Four: Purdue, Arizona State, Marquette, LSU

Big 12 Bids (5)
Lock: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Likely: Texas
Bubble: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Kansas State

Thoughts?

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Burnt Orange Nation

You must be a member of Burnt Orange Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Burnt Orange Nation. You should read them.

Join Burnt Orange Nation

You must be a member of Burnt Orange Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Burnt Orange Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker