NCAA Tournament Projections as of March 8th

by awiggo on Mar 9, 2009 8:00 AM CDT in Basketball Comment 38 comments

Conference season has ended for everyone and a few teams have already punched their tickets to the Dance. Congrats to Cornell (Ivy), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), Radford (Big South), and Morehead State (Ohio Valley). The remainder of the conference tournaments will all end this week with the bracket announcement at 5 pm on Sunday being the cherry on top of fantastic week of basketball.

The big conference tournaments are as follows:
Big East: Tuesday – Saturday (New York City)
Big XII: Wednesday – Saturday (Oklahoma City)
Pac 10: Wednesday – Saturday (Los Angeles)
SEC: Thursday – Sunday (Tampa)
Big 10: Thursday – Sunday (Indianapolis)
ACC: Thursday – Sunday (Atlanta)

Here is my list of bubble teams by conference. With the strong finishes by Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, the Big XII is in great shape to land six teams in the dance. A few losses by the teams listed below wouldn’t hurt either.

Big East: Providence, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Georgetown
ACC: Boston College, Maryland, Miami, Virginia Tech
Big Ten: Minnesota, Penn State, Michigan, Northwestern
SEC: Florida, Kentucky
Pac 10: Arizona, USC
Atlantic 10: Dayton, Rhode Island, Temple
Mtn West: UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State

Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament.

These are if the season ended today. They are listed by strength within each seed as well.

No. 1: Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Connecticut, Oklahoma
No 2: Michigan State, Louisville, Memphis, Duke
No 3: Wake Forest, Kansas, Washington, Villanova
No 4: UCLA, Xavier, Clemson, Missouri

Next Four: Syracuse, Gonzaga, Illinois, Marquette

Big 12 Bids (6)
Lock: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas
Likely: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Bubble: Kansas State

Thoughts?

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Comments

Texas A&M

After watching Texas A&M fans rush the floor after beating 3rd place conference team Missouri (not ranked in the top ten…with no great basketball tradition) I started to wonder if one could have a contest for stupidest Aggie behavior. Below is my all time favorite. Would they all jump off a cliff if they were told to do that?

http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=22texas+A26M%22+kansas+basketball&hl=en&emb=0&aq=f#

I noticed they rush the court for their woman’s team also.

The majority of the crowd of 7,035 dashed to the court and jumped around wildly to celebrate with the Aggies as the Sooners slowly walked off hanging their heads.

by IUTex on Mar 9, 2009 8:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Better Link

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxggBQ7bXMk&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=22texas+A26M%22+kansas+basketball&hl=en&emb=0&aq=f

by IUTex on Mar 9, 2009 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but

I wouldn’t mind seeing that kind of enthusiasm a little more from the crowd in Austin. Watching the KU game on Saturday, and listening to that crowd, I was envious of the noise.

by NYCHorn on Mar 9, 2009 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stupidest Aggie behavior?

That would be the bonfire of 1999.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Mar 9, 2009 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

really?

by carsondude on Mar 9, 2009 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

i would think the ’99 bonfire falls more under the category of most tragic rather than stupidest…

by hooked on texas on Mar 9, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and the winner of the "dumbest comment of 2009" goes toooooooo.....

Caradoc

I Am The 12th Man.com

by Beergut on Mar 11, 2009 5:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

really?

This team was left for dead 3 weeks ago. D-E-A-D. 3-7 in conference. Losers of 6 of their last 8. Beating Mizzou at home bookended an improbable 6 game win streak and probably put them in the tournament. The crowd reacted to the emotion of that moment. No big deal and I would hardly call it “stupid.”

by DoubleB on Mar 9, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The bonfire comment was just weak....

And I don’t care if they storm the court against Mizzou, it was an upset for a program and A&M doesn’t have a lot of basketball tradition. It was a big win for them..
But, storming the court for the KU game……… WOW. No words can describe how sad that was.

by the1austin on Mar 9, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe if you had ever won in Lawrence

you’d understand.

I Am The 12th Man.com

by Beergut on Mar 11, 2009 5:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

At least pretend you have been there..

I would love to see the Erwin Center to be like Allen Field, full of loud and KNOWLEDGEABLE fans, I think that last item is missing in College Station. .

by IUTex on Mar 9, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, let's see

A&M pulled off an improbable 6-game winning streak, completing it with a win over #15 ranked Missouri in a game that makes us a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Nope, no reason to get excited and celebrate the win there.

Also, if you think Missouri has no basketball tradition, you really know nothing about college basketball.

I Am The 12th Man.com

by Beergut on Mar 11, 2009 5:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would guess OU would have to win the tournament in order to get a #1 seed

I guess it helps being the best team, farthest west.

-rBr-

by run Bevo run on Mar 9, 2009 8:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

SEC

I think Kentucky is in auto-bid or bust category now. I think Auburn is now actually on the bubble (a trip to the finals can get them in). I think South Carolina is not a lock, but is actually on the bubble as well (need to win at least one).

That conference blows this year. Only two locks (LSU and Tennessee) and three real bubble teams (UF, S. Carolina, and Auburn).

by DoubleB on Mar 9, 2009 10:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree

The SEC is horrible top to bottom. South Carolina is probably in but a win in the SEC tournament would really help.

Kentucky is dead.

Auburn has a lot left to prove: RPI 62, Strength of Schdule 72, best wins at home to Tennessee and at home to LSU. Doesn’t really do it for me. They need a trip to the SEC tournament final at least.

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 9, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kentucky blows

Only way they get in is winning the SEC tourney.

by jc25 on Mar 9, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Florida is dead too....

Both KU and UF have terrible, terrible resumes. With the MWC poised to get 3 (or 4 bids), the A10 getting 2(or 3), and the Big 12 getting 5(or 6), I don’t see UK or UF getting a spot.

by the1austin on Mar 9, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How many times does OU have to lose before . . .

it loses its No. 1 seed?

by chilimilkjones on Mar 9, 2009 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Benefit of the Concussion

If Griffin didn’t get a concussion and OU lost to Texas and Kansas, then OU probably wouldn’t still be on the #1 line. The second part is that no one on the #2 line has stepped up to grab that last #1. If Michigan State rolls through the Big Ten, I won’t be at all surprised if they earn a #1. Memphis has too weak a schedule both outside of and within their conference. They played G’town and Syracuse and lost to both. Their best wins are at Tennesssee and at Gonzaga.

Louisville could get their too but as they rise UConn probably falls off.

With Duke’s second loss to UNC, it would take an ACC tourney title and a win over Carolina to get to a #1 seed.

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 9, 2009 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

An unusual season?

Wow! Has there ever been a season when so many traditional basketball powerhouses, like Fla, KY, Mich, USC, Ariz., Georgetown, ND, UNLV, and the like were on the bubble?

"Only angry people win football games." --DKR

by OBdoc on Mar 9, 2009 12:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Bracketology

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

A&M is pretty much at our level. We’re an 8 seed, they’re a 9 seed. If we lose to Colorado or KSU, and they win a few rounds, they might end up with a better seed than us. Never thought that was going to happen this season.

Needless to say, we’re in deep shit if we can’t win at least the 1st two games of the Big 12 tournament.

by goingforthecorner on Mar 9, 2009 1:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, only shot at a 6 or even 7 seed

would have to involve Texas making a run in the big 12 tourney.
Still…….this has to be the weakest group of possible 1 seeds that I’ve seen in some time. I can easily see 2 of the 4 #1 seeds going out early in the tourney. And having said that, if Texas plays its A game…..that would spell trouble for a 1 seed in the 2nd round. Problem is…….will Texas get out of the first round?

by silky51 on Mar 9, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you been watching the same Texas team as us?

You think we can match up with UNC, Pitt, or UConn? I think it would be surprising if we beat K-State in the second round of the Big 12 tourney.

by the1austin on Mar 9, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My point..

was that this will be considered a weak field of #1’s compared to past tournaments, and a team like Texas, which has been mediocre at best for much of the season, still has the talent that if they play their A game can put a huge scare into a 1 seed in a second round matchup.

When the brackets come out, and if we’re an 8 or 9 seed, and ESPN starts analyzing the opening pods…..this point will get brought up…..we’ll be labeled a “dangerous” 8 or 9 seed.

But to be honest, I expect this team to be one and done. You just never know in this tourney though.

by silky51 on Mar 9, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree with your assessment

How are UConn, Pitt, and UNC weak in comparison to past tournaments? I actually think it’s a top-heavy tournament with about 5 or 6 teams really capable of winning it. I think there’s a pretty large drop from UConn to Duke—a much larger gap than, say, between Duke and Marquette.

I feel Texas is better as a 10-seed than an 8/9. The slightly higher chance of going out in the first round is more than mitigated by the much better chance of defeating a team like Duke (or Michigan State or whoever else might appear on that line).

I think as a whole the tournament will see a fair amount of 2nd round upsets (a couple of 6 and 7’s, maybe 2 or 3 double digit seeds seeds getting to the Sweet 16) before bowing to better talent in the 2nd weekend (3 #1’s in the Final Four).

by DoubleB on Mar 9, 2009 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you there...

that I’d much rather have Texas on an easier path as a 10 seed…..we’d have to lose to colorado to obtain that though.

I just firmly believe college basketball is flawed this year because of too many early defections to the nba…..down cycle year. It’s just my opinion the top tier teams are more vulnerable than past years. But at least we get to see how it plays out with a tournament……thank goodness for that!

by silky51 on Mar 9, 2009 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

#7 Seed

We could easily go the other way to get into the 7/10 game. If we beat CU and Kansas State and are competitive with Kansas, we could move up to a #7 seed.

Let’s root for that scenario to avoid Pitt, UNC, UConn.

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 9, 2009 7:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Plus if we make it to the semi’s, we’d get a 6pm UT game on a friday evening. That gives me an excuse to give to the wifey that I MUST go to happy hour!!

by silky51 on Mar 10, 2009 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I will be PISSED if we are an 8 or 9 seed

We did that last season.

First of all, you get the most competitive first round game in the Dance, by definition, b/c those are the closest seeded teams. Then, if you make it past that game, you are rewarded with a game against the #1 seed in that bracket.

I’d much rather be a #10 seed than 8-9.

A&M probably needs to knock off Tech and Missouri for a second time for us to move to a #7 seed.

I Am The 12th Man.com

by Beergut on Mar 11, 2009 5:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that updated bracketology also says we're 22-8

we’re 23-7 right now

I Am The 12th Man.com

by Beergut on Mar 11, 2009 5:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rankings

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings

In the AP Poll, A&M has 63 votes (ranked #27), while we just have 2 votes (ranked #43). Even Oklahoma St. has more votes than us.

In the USA Poll, we are ranked #33 with 3 votes, and A&M is right behind us at 2 votes (#34).

by goingforthecorner on Mar 9, 2009 1:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Unless there are some big upsets - we're both getting 8/9 seeds

So it doesn’t really matter who is higher

by Texas Wahoo on Mar 9, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How likely is it UL pitt and uconn all get #1 seeds

by MJY6087 on Mar 9, 2009 3:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

No way, the ACC champ will get a 1 seed. OU should get one (will if they win the Big 12 tourney).

I think the committee will consider Memphis before they give out 3 from one conference.

by the1austin on Mar 9, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And if KU wins the Big XII, convincingly?

Jayhawks anywhere near a 1-seed? I know they aren’t even top 10, and that Tech loss was inexcusable, but they are the ’Hawks, and this is the Big XII.

by NYCHorn on Mar 9, 2009 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't see KU getting a 1 seed even if they beat OU in the Big 12 tourney..

But, I’m no expert. The way I see it, KU’s peak is a 2 right now and they are behing Louisville, Memphis, and maybe even Duke in the pecking order. I can’t see them getting a 1 just a week and a half after a blowout against Tech on national tv.

by the1austin on Mar 9, 2009 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unlikely

If KU wins the Big XII, they would be a strong 2 seed. It is doubtful that they’d reach a #1. In my opinion, UNC, Pitt, and either Louisville/UConn will grab three of the 1 seeds. The fourth will come down to Michigan State, Oklahoma, or possibly Memphis. After Sunday’s loss in Chapel Hill, it would take a lot for Duke to get back on the number one line.

--AW--

by awiggo on Mar 10, 2009 6:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs