FanPost

Tubili's "Screw the Polls" Omaha Power Rankings - UT Wins It All!

Dear All: 

Even though three polls are still polling I have chosen, for the final analysis, to disregard the silly wankers.  Instead we are going by the numbers in a smoothed out fashion.  I have taken into account several stats from the NCAA stat site.  Two have used before (RPI from NCAA site and ISR from Boyd's site).  I am still using the NCAA seedings (because I can and they favor UT).  Finally, I have added hitting (batting average), pitching (ERA) and fielding (F%) which I consider to be "don't lie" stats.  I have not used the actual numbers for each team because there were huge gaps in some cases (though not in ERA where most of the 8 teams are right up there).  For all catagories used for the final poll I have smoother the numbers so that they are numbered from 1 to 8 only.  This makes Cinderella (So. Miss.) look more like they might actually belong and also moves UT from #4 with those silly polls to #2 without those ludicrous offerings. 

This leads us to our vaunted "by the numbers" predictions for Omaha.  By the numbers, Fullerton meets Texas in the final match-up and Fullerton prevails.  However, I'm a homer and believe that with statistics I can manipulate almost anything and mostly I believe  that good pitching and defense will prevail in Omaha.  Accordingly, final prediction . . . UT beats Fullerton in the final!!!!  UT wins!  "But Tubili" you might ask "I thought you were basing this on hard numbers.  How did you achieve an emotional homer result like 'UT Wins?'"  The answer is simple and the second chart set forth below shows how I achieved the correct result.  Pitching (3X) and Fielding (3X) are far more important that Hitting (1X).  The correct answer (ie UT wins) is yielded by this correct (and I might add . . . brilliant) analysis!

Can't wait for Omaha!  May the best team (UT) win.

Tubili

Adj. Rank Team Avg. Rank Poll Total ERA BA F % RPI ISR NCAA Seed
1 Cal St. Fullerton 2.00 12 4 1 3 1 1 2
2 Texas 2.83 17 2 7 1 3 3 1
3 Arizona State 3.00 18 1 4 2 4 2 5
4 LSU 4.33 26 6 3 4 6 4 3
5 Virginia 4.33 26 3 2 5 5 5 6
6 North Carolina 4.67 28 5 5 6 2 6 4
7 Arkansas 7.17 43 7 8 7 7 7 7
8 Southern Miss 7.67 46 8 6 8 8 8 8

 

Adjusted Adjusted Finalk Rankings:

 

Adj. Rank Team Avg. Rank Poll Total ERA ERA ERA BA F% F% F% RPI ISR NCAA Seed
1 Texas 2.30 23 2 2 2 7 1 1 1 3 3 1
2 Arizona State 2.40 24 1 1 1 4 2 2 2 4 2 5
3 Cal St. Fullerton 2.60 26 4 4 4 1 3 3 3 1 1 2
4 Virginia 4.20 42 3 3 3 2 5 5 5 5 5 6
5 LSU 4.60 46 6 6 6 3 4 4 4 6 4 3
6 North Carolina 5.00 50 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 2 6 4
7 Arkansas 7.10 71 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7
8 Southern Miss 7.80 78 8 8 8 6 8 8 8 8 8 8

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