Tubili's "Screw the Polls" Omaha Power Rankings - UT Wins It All!
by Tubilidentata on Jun 10, 2009 8:45 AM CDT
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PrintDear All:
Even though three polls are still polling I have chosen, for the final analysis, to disregard the silly wankers. Instead we are going by the numbers in a smoothed out fashion. I have taken into account several stats from the NCAA stat site. Two have used before (RPI from NCAA site and ISR from Boyd's site). I am still using the NCAA seedings (because I can and they favor UT). Finally, I have added hitting (batting average), pitching (ERA) and fielding (F%) which I consider to be "don't lie" stats. I have not used the actual numbers for each team because there were huge gaps in some cases (though not in ERA where most of the 8 teams are right up there). For all catagories used for the final poll I have smoother the numbers so that they are numbered from 1 to 8 only. This makes Cinderella (So. Miss.) look more like they might actually belong and also moves UT from #4 with those silly polls to #2 without those ludicrous offerings.
This leads us to our vaunted "by the numbers" predictions for Omaha. By the numbers, Fullerton meets Texas in the final match-up and Fullerton prevails. However, I'm a homer and believe that with statistics I can manipulate almost anything and mostly I believe that good pitching and defense will prevail in Omaha. Accordingly, final prediction . . . UT beats Fullerton in the final!!!! UT wins! "But Tubili" you might ask "I thought you were basing this on hard numbers. How did you achieve an emotional homer result like 'UT Wins?'" The answer is simple and the second chart set forth below shows how I achieved the correct result. Pitching (3X) and Fielding (3X) are far more important that Hitting (1X). The correct answer (ie UT wins) is yielded by this correct (and I might add . . . brilliant) analysis!
Can't wait for Omaha! May the best team (UT) win.
Tubili
| Adj. Rank | Team | Avg. Rank | Poll Total | ERA | BA | F % | RPI | ISR | NCAA Seed |
| 1 | Cal St. Fullerton | 2.00 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 | Texas | 2.83 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | Arizona State | 3.00 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | LSU | 4.33 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Virginia | 4.33 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | North Carolina | 4.67 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 7 | Arkansas | 7.17 | 43 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Southern Miss | 7.67 | 46 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Adjusted Adjusted Finalk Rankings:
| Adj. Rank | Team | Avg. Rank | Poll Total | ERA | ERA | ERA | BA | F% | F% | F% | RPI | ISR | NCAA Seed |
| 1 | Texas | 2.30 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | Arizona State | 2.40 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Cal St. Fullerton | 2.60 | 26 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 4 | Virginia | 4.20 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | LSU | 4.60 | 46 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | North Carolina | 5.00 | 50 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 7 | Arkansas | 7.10 | 71 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Southern Miss | 7.80 | 78 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
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I work for Citi....
You should apply. We need that kind of “eye on the prize” mentality in our analysts. Too often they apply “standardly accepted principles” and other BS
Thanks for the nice comments . . . no idea what Citi is (other than a large bank?)
by Tubilidentata on Jun 10, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
its a vehicle
for obama to redistribute wealth…ya didnt need that college degree, obama runs things and can give everyone a GM car, a Citi loan, and AIG insurance. that was his first few months, hes starting on healthcare now.
yes we can
OMG
look up -- get up -- dont ever give up
sounds like politics...which is a no-no on this site..nt
by vy til i die on Jun 12, 2009 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions
yes please....
I’ve seen many a sports blog turn into a heated political debate……ugh!
I +1 this
I appreciate what you brought to this site and how you approached it. Thanks.
"From the waist down, Earl Campbell has the biggest legs I have ever seen on a running back." -John Madden
Haha, great penultimate poll
I think you’re right with all your predicitions! Great methodology too!
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