Community projections: QB

by TheElusiveShadow on Jul 10, 2009 3:29 PM CDT

I got this idea from Music City Miracles, and since I am bored and I really want football to start, I'd like to listen to what you guys think here.

Colt McCoy has risen to be the unquestioned leader of this team as well as one of the top players in college football. He was a surprise performer as a freshman, breaking the record for most TD passes in a season and nearly guiding us to a national title berth before he got knocked out of the KSU game. He then had a bit of a sophomore slump, throwing 18 interceptions, leading many to question his abilities and to call for Chiles to replace him. After a spectacular junior season in which he shattered the expectations of even big fans of his like me, it seems like the expectation is that he has to lead us to a national title this season or it is almost a failure.

What do you guys project his final numbers will be? Here are his stats his first three seasons from ESPN:

Stats Overview	Passing
YEAR	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
2006	217	318	2570	68.2	8.08	72	29	7	14	161.82
2007	276	424	3303	65.1	7.79	62	22	18	24	139.16
2008	332	433	3859	76.7	8.91	91	34	8	24	173.75

And rushing:

Rushing Stats
YEAR	TEAM	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	FD	FUM	LOST
2006	TEX	68	170	2.5	33	2	0	0	0
2007	TEX	114	510	4.5	44	4	0	0	0
2008	TEX	136	561	4.1	35	11	0	0	0

And if you're curious, he has punted five times the last two years for 29.8 yards per punt. However, I'm skeptical the above fumbling information is correct, seeing as how Colt fumbled the ball four times in the bowl game in 2007. Oh well.

Here's my take. With the hopes that our downfield passing game matures with Malcolm Williams and our running game strengthens to the point that we take more chances with longer throws and he has to do less with his legs, I'll predict this:

Passing: 3700 yards, 70% completion, 9.1 ypa, 36 TD, 11 Int
Rushing: 75 attempts, 340 yards, 6 TD

I'm actually going to predict his stats to go down in most areas, but that doesn't mean he'll be any less effective at what he does. Thoughts?

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Comments

I think you are about on.

Though I wouldn’t expect his INTs to go up. As a senior and with his O-Line, I hoping for 8 or less, seeing how at least two that I can remember distinctly were the fault of his receivers last year, who either should be better, or not thrown to (Buckner getting jammed on his fade, and Smith lofting up a set).

We cant really run it much less effectively then we already did, and if he continues to mature and improve, even a little, im hoping for no more than 8.

Its a fair guess to have his completion and yards drop. Quan’s amazing hands and great football IQ will be missed there. Ill guess around 3500 yards and right at 71%.

Ill agree with you on the running. numbers as well. Our RBs should improve overall even with the loss of OBGYN with a more seasoned O-line, and Whaley.

by BoddickerIsClutch on Jul 10, 2009 3:51 PM CDT reply actions

It’d be almost impossible to replicate last year’s completion percentage, but I’ll be plenty happy if Colt’s even close. Missing Quan’s going to hurt, but everyone except Quan and Shipley was very, very raw last year, so a year’s worth of development on every single other receiving target could make up for that loss. Regardless, the running game shouldn’t be any worse than it was last year, which should only help the passing game, even if the numbers drop a little.

by burntorangehorn on Jul 10, 2009 3:59 PM CDT reply actions

hmm

I’m gonna wager:

passing:
3700 yds passing
40 TD (yes!)
10 int
ypc goes up a bit with better speed across the board at WR

rushing:
250 yds
6 TD
4.5 ypc

by owenh on Jul 10, 2009 4:01 PM CDT reply actions

completion %

68%

by owenh on Jul 10, 2009 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions

I'll leave the numbers crunching to others . . .

I’d guess a lower completion percentage, fewer attempts, a higher average-per-completion. And definitely few QB runs and fewer passes. All this based on balancing the offense, opponents being better at defending the possession stuff, an improved (if forced) running game, and more early blowouts.

Good topic, Shadow. On a couple of your other points:

Horns weren’t going to the MNC title game in Colt’s freshman season, even by beating K-State and Aggie and winning the Big 12 title game (a tough Nebraska team) because Ohio State was unbeaten and Florida was going to be No. 2 by finishing with one defeat. In fact, an Ohio State-Michigan rematch was more likely than an Ohio State-Texas rematch.

And Colt’s high interception total as a sophmore was more a team failing than a QB failing. Line couldn’t block (youth, injuries) and the rushing game was sporadic, so a lot of forced passes leading to high INTs.

by edsp on Jul 10, 2009 4:13 PM CDT reply actions

Why would a tOSU-UM rematch have been more likely? A rematch from the early part of the season would be far more bearable than a rematch of the last game of the season, and has been so since the advent of the BCS. The last time it really happened was UF-FSU, IIRC.

by burntorangehorn on Jul 10, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions

I disagree

The Horns were ranked #3 at that point and had the inside track to make it the title game. If I’m not mistaken, the computers favored Texas.

by TheElusiveShadow on Jul 10, 2009 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Why is everyone predicting such a big drop in CMP%?

Colt said himself that he thinks he can improve it. While I don’t think that will happen (no sticky hands Quan), I can’t see him dropping below 70%. I would guess 74%. He’s just that good.

by Horn Brain on Jul 10, 2009 4:20 PM CDT reply actions

I'd be more than happy if Colt is right

But 77% is just absolutely unreal. That’ll be hard to top if we do take more shots downfield.

by TheElusiveShadow on Jul 10, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm in the 68-71% camp for a few reasons

1. There is a deep threat, and those passes are often more difficult to complete.

2. Several new WR’s (theoretically) will be worked into the mix. Chiles may light up the world after the catch, but if he plays significantly he’ll likely drop a few gimmes through inexperience.

3. This year’s offense is more of a known quantity, to the fans and everyone else. By no means do I think Texas “snuck up on” teams last year, but I think many teams were unware that Colt McCoy really is that good. I won’t be surprised at all to see teams go for broke to stop the pass. Whether they’ll be truly successful or not is a different issue, but a few teams may be successful enough to be worth few more incomplete passes per game. (If a legit running game emerges from anywhere other than the QB position, ignore this)

proud to swim home

by learned hand on Jul 10, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions

I think #2 is going to be a wash...

Yes, losing Quan and his flypaper hands will hurt, but Shipley, Collins and Kirkendoll are known quantities. I would add Mal, but he had less opportunities for receptions than the others. However, you would think that last season would give him enough film to watch to improve other area like his hands and route running (for Colt’s timing purposes). Additionally, I’m under the impression that the coaches like Chiles’ shiftiness. Knowing this (and his inexperience and our offensive system), you would assume GD would use him mainly for high percentage passes like screens and not attempt to have him run many routes out in the middle where he would attempt to catch in traffic.

Every time I feel down and depressed, I think of seven simple words by a true wise man, Matt Leinart: "I still think we're the better team" and I usually end up hurting myself by laughing so hard.

by SurferHorn257 on Jul 12, 2009 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions

CMP%

Should be about level. O-line should be better and he has one stellar receiver and four or five very good receivers, instead of two stellars and a bunch of toss-ups.

GD and co. will probably force more running during meaningful time this year, so we’ll probably see fewer passing TDs and more Gilbert in extended relief duties.

In some ways it would be nice to see Mack and GD “play the system by the system’s rules” and have Colt rack up 7 or 8 passing TDs per game for the first four to pad polls and Heisman stats, but that just isn’t going to happen. They’ll always go with the “nice” approach, instead of Stoops-ing it up.

by Tackchevy on Jul 10, 2009 4:44 PM CDT reply actions