Rivals new Team Rankings

by SwimTexas on Jul 27, 2009 6:28 PM CDT Comment 25 comments

http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=969044

With all but 5 of the top 20 in the country still deciding, and apparently no inclusion of JuCo or Prep kids, Texas and its depth of talent is currently raked #1 in the first Rivals Team Recruiting Rankings. I think the destination of the kids we always talk about here at BON, the likes of White, Seastrunk, Jeffcoat, Hicks, and a few others will greatly determine our fate on this list.

Personally, I think as the top of the list decides closer to the deadline, we eventually slip to the 4th-6th area, which is OK by me. It is hard to imagine us falling much further than that. I also think that both OU and A&M get passed over by some of these teams as the process goes on, unless that is, they add any of that top 20 mentioned above.

It will also be fun to watch, as their senior season progresses, the player rankings change and those chages flow through. Any pre-season thoughts on who climbs the ranks enough to affect these?

Anyway, It appears that I have become one of those geeks who cares about this stuff (even 6 months away from its conclusion) so if you are like me, please feel free to share your thoughts.

All comments, FanPosts, and FanShots are the views of the reader-authors who create them.

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And a 3.84 avg rating for the class. Excellent.

We are in good shape, regardless of where other teams land because some teams will take more players than us. I think we only have about 16 truly open spots for 2010, so we can’t take many more and will probably stick pretty close to this number subject to the top 5 star players still on our offer list.

We also may benefit from the updated rankings of players as they give out more stars because kids like Wilson and Bible and probably a few others should be 5 stars.

by jkovach on Jul 27, 2009 7:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

At this point, Horns have

14 seniors they can replace, and two open spots on the 85-man roster . . . They also have 19 commitments and enough offers out there that they’re gonna take at least 21 (I’m guessing more than that). Attrition — some natural, some forced — will cover any openings the coaching staff needs.

by edsp on Jul 28, 2009 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Methodology

I assume they base their rankings simply on the talent recruited and not weighted for the need of the program. For example, if a team, let’s call them “USC,” recruited 47 5-star running backs, that shows that they have an incredible class? Or do they take other factors into consideration, such as fit with the team’s offensive/defensive system, current holes, elephant walks, job openings at the local car dealership, etc.?

by Sleepy on Jul 27, 2009 8:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

all of those criterion are extremely subjective… it’s most likely some flat “100 pts per 3 star, 200 pts per 4 star, 300 pts per 5 star” or some such method and then you just add up all the point totals at the end.

by Displaced Longhorn on Jul 27, 2009 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was under the impression that it is a panel that looks at each class and votes them where they think they should be ranked.

by Frazier90 on Jul 27, 2009 9:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought it was based on a point system they assign to the ranking

A five star guy is 6.1 (not sure how many points that equals), but a four star guy can be a 5.8, 5.9 or 6.0 and then points are assigned. So really it is from a 6.1 on down. All four star guys are not equal and so high four star guys could go into 5 star later.

I think you could have all four star RB commits and it would be computed as a good score. I don’t think a school’s “need” or anything that subjective is in the equation. I also heard they base it on the top 25 recruits, since the SEC schools routinely get more than 25 commits. I also read that the SEC was going to start making teams limit their commits to like 27 or something more legit. They routinely get these guys that don’t have any grades to support admission. I guess they send them off to a JUCO and keep an eye on them for later.

by jkovach on Jul 27, 2009 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

rivals says

Teams are awarded points through a formula that rewards them for both the quantity of commitments and the quality of those players. Prospects with higher star ratings earn more points for the school to which they commit; prospects that are ranked among the top at their positions earn still more points; and prospects that are ranked on the Rivals 100 earn even more bonus points.

scout says

Scout.com team football recruiting rankings are based on the Talent, Need and Balance of players committed to that school. We consider only players who have made a Verbal or Soft Verbal commitment to that school. We include high school, prep school and junior college players in our analysis.

Talent – This category reflects the quality of players committed to that school. Teams must recruit difference-makers throughout their class to obtain a high ranking.
Need – This is analysis of whether the team needs are being met at each position. This value is capped per position type (i.e., a team does not receive extra credit for overloading at a position).
Balance – Teams must be represented at every position by players of each body type. Securing balance in every recruiting class is a necessity due to the injuries and attrition that are part of college football.

so it looks like scout’s formula takes into account the need for the position, and rivals doesn’t really. at any rate, who knows the real formula for calculating the team score.

by Displaced Longhorn on Jul 28, 2009 1:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's interesting and thanks for the updated information

One time I tried to figure out the points assigned by stars when teams had just a couple of players committed, but I could never get the point values to balance. I didn’t realize that they include a subjective talent, need, balance and bonus point criteria.

I think it is interesting that if Texas or OU offers a kid, their star ranking always seems to increase which is a pretty good indication that the folks at Rivals and Scout know the heavy hitting teams are better at evaluating talent than them (and probably get more access/opportunity to properly do the job).

by jkovach on Jul 28, 2009 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the folks at Rivals and Scout know the heavy hitting teams are better at evaluating talent than them

That’s probably true but I think the movement is more likely due to the heavy hitting teams having a large number of subscribers.

by gwh65 on Jul 28, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Confirmation bias.

by burntorangehorn on Jul 29, 2009 7:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Puzzling

Whether it’s based on point system assigned to ranking, which seems most logical, or by number of stars, it’s still subjective to opinion and homey media type bias. It’s fun to track and watch and I follow along hoping our guys get there due, but I’m more impressed with how Mack and his staff grades them. I’ll take Mack’s four stars over Rivals 5 stars ala USC 2005, Oklahoma 2008, and Ohio State Fiesta Bowl 2009.

We are the Lone Star State called Texas and it’s her flag we fly at DKR, let that be our 5th!

by orangetower on Jul 27, 2009 10:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

USC

always finishes strong. USC will probably get 10 more recruits and they will all be 4 or 5 star players. USC will be in the top 5 more than likely.

I don’t think ou will get jumped considering they might land D. White and a few others. a&m will fade off, but they will probably land J. Matthews.

by Longhorns84 on Jul 28, 2009 5:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Texas

should stay in the top 5. I’m sure atleast 1 of the players will get bumped up a star. I think D. Terrell could get a fourth star.

by Longhorns84 on Jul 28, 2009 5:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

USC, Miami, or FSU could pass OU...

USC will almost certainly push OU and maybe us down a slot. Depending on how the remaining Florida talent falls out, FSU or Miami could move up quite a bit or even Georgia or Alabama if they bring in enough Sunshine State talent. Ohio State will also rise and so could Michigan if they have a good season to attract some more top players.

I found it odd the comment that Saban now recruits into Texas for big talent. They have 5 Texas recruits in the past 4 recruiting seasons and none of them is even 4-star talent. Chad Lindsey might get to 4 stars, but none of these guys are even getting UT offers much less one from OU.

by Rickyspub on Jul 28, 2009 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

50 of the Rivals100 are not yet committed.

With half the Rivals100 yet to make their school selection, virtually any team in the Top-25 could put themselves in the Top-5. Especially when 9 of the Top-10 are still uncommitted! Those with plenty of scholarships yet to give, may well be at an advantage. Auburn, Ohio State, Florida State, Notre Dame and USC are well positioned for a big jump.

Pete Carroll has been relatively quiet, however, when he puts the hotbox on Jake Matthews I fully expect Jake to be a Trojan.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Jul 28, 2009 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A&M - Not bad

For losing to Baylor, having a dud as head coach and being predicted to finish last in the Big XII South, their ranking is impressive. I’d put the over/under on decommits at +/- 7. A&M would be fortunate to win 6 games. 5 might even sooth the aggie (un)faithful, provided there are plenty of moral victories. But losing 8 games again and 4-5 at home, and the natives will get even more restless. I don’t think they can fire Sherm, but it will certainly make things even less appealing for recruits. Right now, the only thing the aggies have going for them for recruits is a friendly depth chart.

by Eskimohorn on Jul 28, 2009 9:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Plus the oppurtunity to live in college station

by pleaseplaykindle on Jul 28, 2009 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't see the Aggies doing any better than 5th in the South (Beating Baylor)

And that’s the reason why their program is in serious trouble. Not only have they fallen to new lows, but the emergence of Texas Tech as a consistent 8-9 win program, OSU’s ability to recruit NFL caliber offensive talent, and the continued strength of OU and UT make it next to impossible for A&M to get out of the cellar for the foreseeable future.

That said, I think Baylor will beat them too and they will finish in last place in the South.

by the1austin on Jul 28, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sherm might be impossible to fire...

While I think Aggie hubris knows no bounds, it seems Sherm can’t be fired because the Aggies have no money to get rid of him. But another bad season might force him to turnover staff and that could lead to some decommits. I think if everyone remains on board they can tell recruits, ‘Hey, this is why we need you’ and ‘You will be on the field early and often here’. If Sherman has to clean house it will not only run off the guys that are in the most communication with recruits it will also signal that the Aggies can’t afford to fire Sherman so they will make him fire his staff. That can’t sound any better than big Sherm getting the axe himself.

by Rickyspub on Jul 28, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A&M has a solid class....

If you throw out OU and Texas, Aggie has the best Big-XII classes for two consecutive seasons and are well on their way to a third. That is with Scout and Rivals. Sherman has fixed the O-Line recruitment and that will go a long way toward fixing their problems on the field. You can’t coach speed and they’ve been recruiting the sh!t out of it! Next season they’ll be faster at every position. Sherman’s coaching staff has a collective 47 NFL seasons and for some players that is extremely meaningful. They’re player development won’t be a problem and that staff isn’t going to get canned. That is just silly.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Jul 28, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aggies just got a verbal commit from Matthews

A very fine class for the Aggies. Let’s hope that they can beat OU and help us out. We will be wearing our throw back uniforms against them this year to honor DKR…should be very cool and we are sure to beat them.

by jkovach on Jul 28, 2009 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The non con for the Aggies:
New Mexico
Utah State
UAB
Arkanasa (in Dallas)

Yes, they lost to Ark St last year and had a tough time at New Mexico, but Sherman has been doing a good job of bringing in talent, and I fully expect the Aggies to have 3 home wins before conference play starts.

I hate Arkansas. HATE. I also think they are a bad team with a joke for a coach. I still think they are favored to win, but not by a lot. I’d say the Aggies have a 40% chance of winning this game and coming into conference play undefeated. That’s not saying much considering the level of competition, but it’s already only 1 less win than they had the year before.

I do expect them to lose to baylor this year. I think they probably lose every game in the south. However, they do get what is probably the best possible draw of north teams: @ KSU, Iowa St, @ Colorado. The only way that could be better is if they had 2 of those at home instead of 1. I think all 3 of those are winnable (Colorado probably being the toughest). So with just a little lucky, they can get 6 wins and make a bowl game.

by UT_BKC on Jul 29, 2009 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Meant to come to a conclusion there…

With all of that said, I think Sherman buys himself a little time and probably doesn’t lose too many, if any, recruits because he can say, “Look, we’re improving. We will be competing for the South title in 2 years.” Of course that will be a lie, but it will keep this years recruits.

by UT_BKC on Jul 29, 2009 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

BKC: You're about the first I've seen

to dispense with the bias and the Sherman’s-a-goof stuff and look at HOW FAVORABLE the Aggies schedule is. I’ve seen predictions like 2-10, and Sherman being fired out before the Texas game.

I’m guessing the Aggies win 7 (three non-conf, either K-State or Colorado — that’s four — Iowa State, Baylor, and one of two from Arkansas/Oklahoma State). Biggest thing the Aggies have to overcome is the negativity that has filtered into the program since Coach Fran proved he wasn’t going to get the program back to the R.C. Slocum level.

by edsp on Jul 30, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The million dollar (buyout) question...

This is a team that lost to Ark St. It is hard to look at their schedule and gift them with any wins with that in mind. HC seems convinced that Sherm and co. can develop HS players into good college players because of their experience in the NFL. I think this is the big question. Pete Carroll is not the norm, so I am not going to just assume Sherm knows how to turn HS players into college players. The OOC games will be telling just how much he has learned to coach and develop players at this level. If they repeat the Ark St. debacle then all bets are off and the season could spiral out of control. If Sherm is at least able to get them to beat lesser talent then the relatively weak schedule might get him to a bowl game and buy him another year or two.

by Rickyspub on Jul 30, 2009 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs