The numbers say UT could win the BCS title and OU won't

I don't need statistics to tell me that!!

OU = Epic Choke

4 months ago patienthornsfan 13 comments 0 recs |

Comments

Some of those criteria he set were a bit generous. For example, on the first one, instead of "1. Be a member of a “Big Six” conference or Notre Dame," he could’ve just put, “Be a member of a ‘Big Six’ conference.”

by burntorangehorn on Jul 7, 2009 4:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So Iowa is more likely to be in the MNC than is OU?

That alone suggests something is flawed in the methodology…

by pleaseplaykindle on Jul 7, 2009 4:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Just statistical relevance

Although if those trends have held up for this long, there is likely some validity to it. (i.e I’d really take a lot of value in some of the obvious things, like experienced QB play, 8 wins the previous year, high qty. of defenders coming back from a solid D, etc.) Oh, and the BCS conference thing is obvious. If Utah can go undefeated twice in the BCS era and not play in the title game, that says a lot.

by junglerules on Jul 7, 2009 10:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correlation / Causation issues all over the place.

(see here).

Also, its likely that most of those things that are used above as “trends” have way to small a sample size to be of any real statistical meaning. I will say that Utah going defeated twice and getting the shaft is probably a good indicator that the non Big 6 conferences have no seat at the BCS table. I would love to kick the Big 10 off of that table too if I could.

The statistics above may be less “statistics” per se and more of how we humans interpret quality. If we see that a team is returning a lot of defenders, we see familiar names on the field and consequently perceive a higher quality of defense. If a team won 8 games the previous year, they generated some attention and are therefore on the map for the upcoming year. Experience QB play, while important, may just mean that they have a QB who is a household name among CFB fans. Maybe its me being a cynic here, but its important to remember that in the BCS, unlike almost every other sport, its the opinion of a set of people that matter, not always play on the field (at least in general), when it comes to determining the teams that go to the (M)NC game. So those statistics above may be quantifying, more than anything else, the relative fame of a team, rather than a team’s actual football quality (whatever the hell that is…).

by pleaseplaykindle on Jul 8, 2009 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OU has one of the finest....

…..Front-7s in the entire country. Just because they finished the prior season #58 in scoring defense, while their offense scored a record 716 points, doesn’t seem like much of a reason to expect them to not be in the running.

Just because Terrelle Pryor is a sophomore with double digit starts, rather than a junior or senior, won’t keep them from contention. They finished 2008 ranked #6 in scoring defense.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Jul 9, 2009 7:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Terrelle Pryor won’t keep tOSU from contention, but a lot of other issues likely will. Did you see what they lost? Their top lineman, Boone, plus another starting lineman. Their best offensive player in Chris Wells, plus their most experienced backup in Mo Wells. Their top two receivers in what was already a putrid passing offense. The second-best defensive back in the country, Thorpe Award winner Malcolm Jenkins. Two starting linebackers, including Butkus winner Laurinaitis. The Buckeyes will be in solid shape on the defensive line and possibly on the offensive line, but it’s tough to reload. Last year was probably their shot, but Boeckman pooed the bed.

by burntorangehorn on Jul 9, 2009 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alex Boone went undrafted.

He may have been one of their most highly recruited OL, but he definitely wasn’t their most productive OL on the playing field. Cedric Dockery went undrafted and I don’t see us having a hard time replacing him.

Having to replace Malcolm Jenkins and Donald Washington will be their biggest hurdle. Yet, Ohio State under Tressel has consistently plugged in high calibre talent at DB and LB. I fully expect their defense to be capable of repeating their consecutive seasons of 166 points allowed.

Offensively, I see Tressel being their biggest roadblock. His conservative playcall is hard to watch. If he lets Terrelle Pryor have some leash, then they are going to be tough. Mo Wells ran for all of 129 yards all season. He is no loss.

Like us, they have 2 games all season – USC at home and @ Penn State. USC is the second game of their season. USC likely won’t have that piecemeal defense playing at championship calibre. I’m not saying they will be in the NC game, however, I feel they are one of seven teams with a very real chance of making the big game.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Jul 11, 2009 7:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Alex Boone went undrafted because of his self-destructive act, particularly the drug and alcohol problems. He was very effective as a tackle. Dockery went undrafted because of a combination of injuries and questions about his work ethic and effectiveness.

You think replacing Washington will be a bigger hurdle than replacing Chris Wells? No way. And none of this year’s Buckeye backs is all that intimidating. At least Maurice would’ve provided them with a smart leader who can also be productive. Saine and/or Herron could be mildly productive, but neither could be productive enough behind that line to compensate for the difference in leadership. Pryor’s not much of a leader at this point either. He’s simply a very athletically gifted player who has been put under center.

Don’t forget the tOSU, in addition to facing USC and PSU, also faces some serious trap games at home against Iowa and Illinois and then of course Michigan. Michigan went through the growing pains last year, but Forcier’s ten times better for Rod’s offense than anyone they had last year. UM has a good stock of linemen on both sides of the ball, and Minor and Forcier should be established enough by season’s end to make the rivalry game pretty tough.

by burntorangehorn on Jul 12, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think losing BOTH CBs....

in the same draft is a tough hurdle for any team. Especially when both of them go in the first 102 picks of the draft.

A 5-7 Illinois team is a trap game in Columbus? Gimme a break! Iowa lost @Pittsburgh, @East Lansing and @Champaign. They have a seriously experienced OLine, but that isn’t going to threaten Ohio State in Columbus. Michigan scored all of 243 points last season. I’m a RichRod fan, but in just his second season at Michigan, he doesn’t have the talent to threaten Ohio State.

BTW, when you are 6’7", 328 pounds, and playing for a marquee program like Ohio State and you don’t get drafted it is because you’re playing some shitty football. Just as any Buckeye fan.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Jul 12, 2009 10:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m not sure if you actually know any Buckeye fans. I know about two dozen from my office, because along with the Ivy League schools, tOSU and Penn State are the biggest sources of recruits for my workplace. And I’m guessing you didn’t bother watching Boone or pay any attention to his play the past few years, because the guy was talked about as a potential first-round draft pick. Did you seriously not hear anything about his substance abuse problems? The dude literally drinks a couple cases of beer a day, and gets in lots of trouble as a result.

by burntorangehorn on Jul 13, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wrong.....wrong.....

….and “talked about” doesn’t mean sh!t. Rod Wright and Okam were both “talked about” as first round picks in their junior years. Rod went in the 7th and Okam in the 5th round. Jonathan Scott and Tony Hills were “talked about” as first round picks in their junior seasons and they went in the 5th and 4th rounds, respectively.

Boone’s substance abuse problems were always discussed and made the papers. Not unusual for the trenches. He just wasn’t good enough to overcome them. He gave up lots of sacks, QB hurries and TFLs.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Jul 13, 2009 5:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Just because you say I’m wrong doesn’t mean you’re right. Boone’s play dropped off a little his senior year, but you’re either blind or dumb if you think the guy was so invisible that he shouldn’t have even been drafted. His main problem was the substance abuse, and how he was letting that affect his role on the team. If he was really that bad, do you really think Tressel would’ve kept starting him?

by burntorangehorn on Jul 15, 2009 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

From July 23rd's AA-S on Ohio State...

NOT SO OFFENSIVE?

Ohio State fans loathed their offensive line in 2008, blaming them for everything from Beanie Wells’ injury problems to the high price of gasoline. Well, they got their wish: Three of them are gone. Will the youngsters replacing them, including big-time recruits Mike Adams and J.B. Shugarts, be any better?

http://www.statesman.com/sports/content/sports/stories/longhorns/2009/07/25/0725top25.html

================

Looks like it is you who didn’t have an accurate measure of the Ohio State fans.

Just as advertised.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Jul 26, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs