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Blog Poll Draft Ballot: Preseason

After the jump, my first stab at a preseason rankings, provided without commentary. (For some excellent preseason ranking commentary, go here.)  At this point, I'm soliciting comments, generally, and persuasive arguments, particularly. To be perfectly honest, I'm an open book right now and will remain so through mid-October.

Star-divide

RankTeam
1 Florida
2 Texas
3 Southern Cal
4 Alabama
5 Oklahoma
6 Ohio State
7 California
8 Mississippi
9 Oklahoma State
10 LSU
11 Georgia
12 Penn State
13 Virginia Tech
14 Georgia Tech
15 Miami (Florida)
16 Notre Dame
17 North Carolina
18 Iowa
19 Florida State
20 Brigham Young
21 North Carolina State
22 Oregon
23 Arkansas
24 TCU
25 Kansas

0 recs  |  Comment 39 comments

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Southern Cal

Why is everyone ranking them so high? Don’t they have to replace almost all of their defense besides Taylor Mays? Not to mention their starting Quarterback? And then on top of that, they have to play at Ohio State, at Cal, at Oregon and at Notre Lame?

It seems to me that Southern Cal is getting a top 5 ranking on name alone, which is why preseason polls are such folly.

by prince8846 on Aug 24, 2009 10:19 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You're right SOS has nothing to do with the polls right now

The polls should be based on performance, talent/potential, and track record. Seeing as there is no performance to evaluate yet, it’s all on talent and track record. This is why USC is where they are.

by jtlonghorn on Aug 24, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good Point...

But that was not the major reason I question their high ranking. If they get through that unscathed, they probably still wont be able to slide into the MNC game over unbeaten Texas/OU/OSU or unbeaten Florida

by prince8846 on Aug 24, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I also wonder about USC's ranking

They lost a LOT of good players and losing a QB is never easy to get through. But at the same time I cannot think of who would take their spot. I see UF, UT, OU, USC and then a lot of teams that I just cannot get a read on.

To the Trojans’ credit the past three years I have sold them short thinking “this is the year the wheels fall off”. They have proven me wrong every single time. While they are the most vulnerable I have ever seen them this decade, I am giving them the benefit of the doubt for now, if for no other reason than their unbelievable consistency.

by owenh on Aug 24, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As pointed out in PB's roundtable...

I’m not so sure an unbeaten Texas gets the nod over an unbeaten USC, given the strength of schedule. But to argue this anymore would be getting WAY ahead of ourselves.

by TXinDC on Aug 24, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think so...

Due to the national perception that Texas got shafted last year, if they run the table I think they are in. I can’t remember where I read it, but a writer also said that Florida and Texas are the only two teams that control their destiny. Win all your games and you are in.

I do see your point however, if USC blows out OSU in the shoe, and mauls the Pac 10, without their trademark slip up, it will be very interesting. Maybe being a homer I like to believe that Texas is win and your in.

by prince8846 on Aug 24, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

At Notre Dame will not be a tough game.

The only reason they are even ranked is because of their cream puff schedule and the fact they went to Hawaii last year and put up some points. Let us not forget how horrible they looked the rest of the year. If I recall correctly even Michigan outgained them in total yards last year by a lot and would have won minus their 6 turnovers, and this was a 3 win Michigan team.

I just don’t see the potential in Clausen or Notre Dame, and Weis should be on his way out after this season.

by 2Cor12:9 on Aug 24, 2009 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hoping they get to 8 or 9 wins

Just enough to keep Weis around but disappointing enough to hurt their recruiting some. I want Weis to leave the cupboard bare of talent by the time he is through.

by Rickyspub on Aug 24, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's the thing though,

according to rivals the past couple of recruiting classes have been top notch, and that would mean that there would be talent there when he leaves if he continues to recruit well. In that case, we might see another Urban Meyer thing, meaning he won with Ron Zooks’s recruits. There’s no question Zook can recruit, he just can’t coach and I could see something like that happening at Notre Dame with a coach like Skip Holtz.

by 2Cor12:9 on Aug 24, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess I am thinking longer term...

If he makes it to 8 or 9 next year he probably gets a two or three year reprieve. If his recruiting classes keep getting weaker and weaker as the 8 or 9 win threshold seems like the max he is able to squeeze out of his players and the schedule, by the time his contract is up the program could be holding a very mediocre hand for his successor.

by Rickyspub on Aug 25, 2009 7:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You are right on

They have a purely untested QB – and turned over virutally the entire defense.

by realmccoy on Aug 25, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where I'm confused

I’m flummoxed by California being so high. Yes, they’ve got some people talking about their RB, but I don’t recall them making much noise last season. True as well that they’re in the running with Oregon to dethrone USC at the top of the PAC10, but I’m not convinced. Perhaps they’re anticipated to peak this year and I’ve just missed hearing anything about them. Losses to a schizo Maryland team, a mediocre Arizona, a firm loss to OregonState and a near shutout to USC tells me their ranking is fishy. Dark horse top 10 if ever there was one.
I’d move Miss. and VT up above Cal, with OSU rounding out the Top 10. Cal can argue with the other doubtables of GT, Miami, Notre Dame, UNC, Iowa, NCSU, and Arkansas.

Other teams I’d move up: TCU, BYU, Oregon.

I’m still not sold on Georgia or LSU – I think they’re up there on name alone. I keep hearing LSU’s only weak spot last season was QB which started to solidify at the end of the season, but I’m still not convinced.

by TXinDC on Aug 24, 2009 10:34 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Cal

I really don’t follow them much but the general conversation is that they can play some good D, especially in the secondary. Couple that with a serviceable QB Riley and a game changer in Jahvid Best and they have some potential.

by owenh on Aug 24, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jeff Tedford's Cal team....

….finished 9-4 last season. They scored less than 21 points only once – to USC 3-17. If 10 wins is such a monumental achievement, then how is 9 wins so easily overlooked?

Jahvid Best ran for 1,580 yards last season and Tedford has had a 1,000-yard rusher for 7 consecutive seasons. Tedford’s balance is exceptional and if his passing game picks up a bit, then they could seriously threaten USC’s reign on top of the Pac-10. With 14 returning starters, 8 on defense, I like their chances. Oregon is depleted this season and the remainder of their away games are extremely winable. I’ll pick them to go 11-1 or 10-2.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Aug 24, 2009 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's way, way too early to know anything for sure

I like the grouping of OSU, Cal and Ole Miss. The narrative for all is very similar, though I think I like OSU’s offense a little better than the others based on Okung. Ole Miss probably has a more dangerous defense. Cal splits the difference nicely.

My only caveats at this date: I think Oregon is underrated – everyone this low has glaring flaws, Oregon seems to have more ascertained quality than some others – and NC state may not belong on the poll at all.

proud to swim home

by learned hand on Aug 24, 2009 10:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ole Miss is intriguing

It will be very interesting to see how Nutt adapts to having a stockpile of talent and being a front-runner. His best teams always seem to have that under-the-radar flavor (like last season). I don’t think much of him as an in-game tactician, but I think he’s one of the best motivators in college football. Will their defense be as good as ’Bama’s? Will it need to be?

I feel the same way about North Carolina as you do about Oregon. They are my dark horse Top 10 breakthrough team this year.

Friends may come and go, but enemies accumulate.
- Thomas Jones

by beast in bama on Aug 24, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My thoughts on PSU

SELL SELL SELL

Penn St as likeable a team as it is just screams dissappointment to me. Lost all their WR’s, and a few key defensive players. I’m worried that they lose the versatility of last years offense and get bogged down. They wont be terrible but I smell 3-4 losses.

12-15 sounds about right for the ranking though so this rant may have been for nothing :)

by owenh on Aug 24, 2009 10:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

We are all tied

No games have been played yet. Preseason polls are for those of us with nothing to do until the games start. It is likely looking at Bracketology before the season starts. Enjoy it as a conversation starter of what others (who have not seen a game this season) think but don’t let these preseason poll numbers ruin your day.

counting down the days…….

by Ohio Horn on Aug 24, 2009 10:56 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Alabama

My concern with Alabama is at the QB position. Greg McElroy started only his Senior year at Southlake Carroll, and has not played many snaps since being at Alabama. I’m sure their attack will be centered on the run game, utilizing deep threat Julio Jones on Play Action, but if they get in a situation where the run game is faltering and need to lean on McElroy’s arm things could get dicey.

I guess we will find out pretty early if he is able to handle the pressure. First game- In Atlanta, against Virginia Tech.

by Hookem4life84 on Aug 24, 2009 11:06 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

Alabama is too high. OU has questions along the O-line, yes, but Alabama has bigger questions at the QB position. I see them losing 3-4 games this year. And I’d take OU straight up against Bama, unless it was a bowl game, of course.

by ctex80 on Aug 24, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

I’ve never understood the preseason love for Bama thus far. Losing JPW, Coffee, Andre Smith, and Antoine Caldwell will hurt badly. I don’t know where else to put them, but they are not worthy of a top 5 slot.

by BigTexBD on Aug 24, 2009 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

SOS handicap

Following billyzane’s reasoning for why resume ranking is the best way to go, has anyone ever seen a formula for handicapping strength of schedule? I guess this is what the BCS computers do, but I’ve never seen an explanation that a human can understand for those. Basketball has the RPI which sort of gets to this point. I’d like to see something “scientific” for football. I think it matters because it would help decide between 1 loss teams or an unbeaten non-BCS school (i.e. Utah) versus a 1 loss BCS school.

For example, if you go undefeated but didn’t play anyone in the top 50, everyone could probably agree that another team has a loss to a top-ten team but beat several other teams in the top 50 should get the nod. In reality its usually not that clear-cut though, and I think most pollsters end up deciding between two such teams based on either signature wins or key losses – i.e. too much emphasis on just a few games. Regular season is 12 games though, and they all matter, at least somewhat. Handicap ideas?

by Texastough on Aug 24, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Win and We're In

If Texas wins out they will be in. Very unlikely we will have 3 unbeaten teams this year. Florida has yet to have an unbeaten year ever.

by stllonghorn on Aug 24, 2009 11:22 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

There just has to be 1 unbeaten team, Texas. If we lose a game we may be out of the NC picture.

Leave no doubt.

by notsofst on Aug 24, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Beamer's VaTech team........

…….is deserving of a Top-10 ranking. Two years ago, VaTech saw a very close, heavy rain loss to Boston College cost them their opportunity at the BCS Nat’l Championship game. Despite many’s claims to the contrary, an early season OOC loss (in this case to LSU) would not have kept them from the BCS NC game. In fact, that early season heavy competition might well have propelled them toward the NC game. While last season’s O-Line was not their strongest, they will be better developed. With 100 starts under their collective belts, they’ll be one of the country’s most experienced O-Lines. Games are won in the trenches.

If 10-win seasons is such a fabulous achievement, then VaTech is certainly accomplished. In the past 14 seasons, Beamer has had ten 10 (or more)-win seasons.

Their season opener, at neutral site Atlanta, against Alabama and the game at GaTech are their season deciders. The rest are quite winable

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Aug 24, 2009 10:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Even w/o Jamaal Charles?

Ryan Williams and David Wilson have plenty of talent to mount an effective running attack.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Aug 25, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gosh......you're right....

….I also forgot to mention they won last year’s BCS Orange Bowl. You know…right after they won their 2nd consecutive ACC Conference Championship.

--- All roads to the Big-XII Championship lead through OU/RRS. It's not just another game! We're all about championships here. ---

by HornChamps on Aug 26, 2009 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Florida over Texas

Peter, let me remind you that as our representative in the blog poll, your responsibility goes beyond offering an objective ranking of the contenders. When some games have been played, whether Florida is truly the better team may become open to question. Other voters trying to decide whether to rank them or us #1 may notice that you have not ranked us #1 and decide that if you haven’t picked your own team, why should they.

Now I understand that you want to establish credibility by conforming to the ‘consensus’ rankings. However, the expectation is that you will show a Texas bias, and when you don’t the reaction will not be to regard you as a fair and just judge but to wonder whether you might know something that makes you lower your opinion of UT. If you don’t vote the way anyone else would, then there must be something the matter with your team.

Sure, someone will point to your ranking of UT at #1 and say what a homer you are. Your answer should be, “damned right I am” and “you’ll see I’m right when its all over.” Now if UT takes a loss (or the Blessed Virgin descends to anoint Tebow as the new savior) then your ranking can change. But till then you have moral obligation to vote for Texas.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Aug 25, 2009 9:23 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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