Florida-Tennessee Result helping us?

by LonghornForLife on Sep 24, 2009 2:03 PM CDT Comment 30 comments

Hey guys,

Maybe I'm off base here, but does anyone else get the feeling that Florida's unimpressive win over Tennessee couldn't have come at a better time for us?

With all the hype and build up to that game (read: Lane Kiffin being a jackass), everyone was expecting Meyer to bitch slap the hell outta the Vols. Instead they stumbled to a 10 point home against what was a very ordinary Tennessee team (and Mr. God's Gift to Mankind turned the ball over twice himself).

With all the attention bestowed on Florida this year, it looks to me, atleast in the national media, that not too many folks are creating a stink about our 10 point win over TTech. It seems to have flown under the radar. Couple that with the fact that TTech has a national reputation as a high scoring, prolific offense and the Texas media machine spinning Colt's Flu story for all its worth (Thanks to Tim Griffin for that as well!), it looks to me like we're getting a pass on this one.

I understand the paranoia that we as Texas fans feel if EVERY game we win is not a blowout (esp. given the events of last year) and the apparent need for "Style Points". However, we just have to keep things in perspective and always keep believing. Honestly, I see our No. 2 ranking as a blessing this year. Let Florida take the heat all season and have their every move analyzed. I am just fine having an "Under The Radar" No. 2 team.

Thoughts anyone?

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Agreed. And also

with so much focus on Columbus the week before and a network (Versus) not terribly visible on the CFB radar screen, Texas’ sometimes-struggles and less than blowout results against Wyoming and Tech aren’t so visible.

I’m in the minority in thinking style points won’t matter much. With our pitiful SoS, we either need to go 13-0 — or we need to go 12-1 and have all but one other team from the Big Ten, SEC and Pac-10 lose twice. I think the latter is more likely.

In other words, root for upsets: On this week’s schedule, Arkansas to beat Alabama . . . Oregon to trip Cal . . . Iowa to surprise Penn State . . . Fresno State to ambush Cincinnati . . . Clemson to beat TCU. Dunno which way to root on Miami-Virginia Tech.

by edsp on Sep 24, 2009 2:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The latter?

You think it’s more likely that Texas goes 12-1 and all but of the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-10 lose at least twice each? That’s more likely than Texas going 13-0?

by burntorangehorn on Sep 24, 2009 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I interpret that as saying . . .

. . . that it’s more likely that we’ll find ourselves in a situation where we’ve lost a game and will be in a position of having to root for a a bunch of two-loss teams. In other words, we’re more likely to lose a game than to run the table, which I think is a fair guess. At least that’s how I’d bet today if in Vegas.

Formerly kjm017

by Hopkins Horn on Sep 24, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

One think we've generally overlooked: 14-0 is very hard to do

As far as I can tell, exactly one team has gone 14-0 in D1-A history and won a championship. A second team, the 1996 BYU team, went 14-0 as well but did not win a championship.

Running the table is extraordinarily hard in the era of 12-game regular seasons and conference championship games. It’s best to start rooting for a bunch of two-loss teams now.

Formerly kjm017

by Hopkins Horn on Sep 24, 2009 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just one?

I can think of another.

by burntorangehorn on Sep 24, 2009 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except I guess they didn’t play a fourth patsy game, so it was only 13-0.

Still, do you really think a fourth non-con game against a team like UTEP would’ve posed any kind of significant additional problem?

by burntorangehorn on Sep 24, 2009 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps

Not from the likelihood that we’d lose to UTEP. But an extra game takes away an off-week, which decreases recovery time, increases the physical toll taken on individual players, etc. I’m not sure if it is a “significant” additional problem, but I think it does increase the odds of losing at least one subsequent game by at least a small percentage.

Formerly kjm017

by Hopkins Horn on Sep 24, 2009 6:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess another thing to consider in your survey of 14-win programs is how old the twelve-game regular season is. It was not the standard length until after Texas won the championship (I believe starting with the 2006 season), so we have a sample size of exactly three seasons from which to draw. Of those three, we have one fairly illegitimate BCS championship game participant that won the game (LSU) and two Florida wins.

by burntorangehorn on Sep 24, 2009 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very true

I thought of the sample size issue after that last post. There were a couple of other oddball 12-game seasons before 2006 — 2002 being one of them, with OSU also playing one of those preseason games (whatever the hell they were called) to get to 13 games without playing a conference championship game. But there haven’t been more than five or six.

Formerly kjm017

by Hopkins Horn on Sep 24, 2009 11:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure how 'illegitimate' LSU was...

I think its relatively unfair to call LSU illegitimate. They played more ranked teams (7) than any other BCS era champion, and it isn’t really that close with last year’s Florida being second with 5 ranked opponents. I know this isn’t a great metric, but LSU did run through a juggernaut of a schedule and they won the BCS championship game, so they are as legitimate as any other champ in so far as one thinks the BCS is even legit in the first place.

I also think the odds are much greater in favor of us winning out than us losing a game along with only one other top team and everyone else having two losses. Even with the extra game, I would have to imagine that going undefeated is more likely than the season finishing up with only two one-loss teams from major conferences. I haven’t gone back to look and see if this is the case, so I am willing to concede, but my recollection makes me think 2007 was the outlier. I am also not sure if this could be the year that Boise State gets the undeserving nod if they are the only undefeated team. Utah has generally earned their stripes while BSU generally hasn’t, but BSU could get the benefit of Utah’s run last year. If this starts to look like a possibility I look forward to billyzane’s take on the how the media constructs the narrative to somehow make BSU the heir to Utah’s 2008 season.

by Rickyspub on Sep 25, 2009 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They had two losses, and didn’t deserve to go over Georgia and several other teams. They definitely didn’t deserve to jump as many spots as they did. It was a very weak title game to be sure.

by burntorangehorn on Sep 25, 2009 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am sure this was argued ad nauseum on more than one occasion..

Georgia didn’t even win the conference much less their division and their losses certainly didn’t warrant them being the test case for taking a team that didn’t win their division (our team last year was probably the optimal case for it and we were still passed over). Georgia lost at home to a South Carolina team that went 6-6 and they were blown out by Tennessee on the road. Both of LSU’s losses were close games. They had already beaten VaTech handily earlier in the year so they’re out. USC lost to Stanford at home and that loss was unforgivable. Kansas didn’t play anyone in compiling their 12-1 record (the only other BCS conf team to have 1 loss) and they probably had a better case than Georgia for getting a chance at the title.

Ultimately, OU is the only team that had a legitimate case and I will be damned if I ever suggest they deserved that chance over LSU. Imagine how an tOSU v. OU title game would have changed our perceptions of the winner. Instead of both teams earning their choke labels, one team would have won a second trophy and had immunity.

by Rickyspub on Sep 25, 2009 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And LSU lost to two teams that combined to go 7-9 in conference (both at home)

It’s not like they blew out the other decent teams on their schedule either (except the early VaTech game).

by Texas Wahoo on Sep 25, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually the Kentucky game was on the road...

LSU didn’t really blow out too many of their opponents but they lost their two games by a combined 8 points whil

by Rickyspub on Sep 25, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry...I can't see all the reply window...

LSU lost their 2 by a combined 8 points. Georgia lost to Tennessee by 21! I think the blowout loss was what sealed their doom along with the fact that Tennessee proved on the field that they deserved to go to the SEC chmapionship game over Georgia.

2007 was a weird year and every team had their issues. I think LSU’s resume was as good as any other team’s, but you could make an argument for other teams to go in most years the only difference was that they were in a crowd of 2-loss teams rather than 1-loss teams.

by Rickyspub on Sep 25, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

odds

This is still too early to talk about, but the scenario for the horns to lose a game and still go to the MNC doesn’t necessarily require all but two teams to lose at least two games. There could be other one loss teams with weak SOS’s like Penn State, Cinci, etc., or even a team like Cal with an ugly loss, over whom one-loss Texas could still get the nod. In other words, there are scenarios in which UT could still go to the MNC over other one loss teams. I agree chances are slim of this happening, but not quite as slim as this season ending with only two BCS conference teams having fewer than two losses.

by Texastough on Sep 25, 2009 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point...

I just worry that the narrative would work against us unless the other one loss teams are the likes of Cincinnati or Stanford or Iowa. I think we might get passed by a one-loss Penn State even if their SOS happens to come in just under ours.

by Rickyspub on Sep 25, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure

Its just too early to tell anything meaningful. At this point just keep rooting for the horns and attrition with the other undefeated and 1 loss teams, and we’ll have this conversation again at the end of October.

by Texastough on Sep 25, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

By beating Tennesse, LSU jumped 3 teams that hadn't lost that week.

Va Tech, KU and UGA. VT is deserved since LSU slaughtered them in the second week, but the other two only got jumped because they didn’t play in, and therefore could not win their respective conference championships.

LSU was not a legitimate NC but rather the most mythical of MNCs because 1 BCS team with a better record, KU, and eight (8!) BCS teams with an equal record, but arguably poorer schedules got left out. And if there’s anything we learned about LSU in ‘07 it’s that they were very capable of losing to bad teams.

Btw only 4 teams (VT, UF, AU, UTenn) on LSU’s schedule before they played tOSU were ranked when LSU was selected for the MNC. Not 7. Which is probably arrived at by looking at what their oppenents were ranked when they played them, which doesn’t make much sense to me. If preseason a team is ranked and then misses a bowl game, why should they count as a ranked team?

by ajax77777 on Sep 25, 2009 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that was a pretty bad year

that was a year with truly no great team to speak of in college football. So LSU worked the system and presto a second BCS championship was there’s.

by TexasGarcia37 on Sep 25, 2009 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

theirs

by TexasGarcia37 on Sep 25, 2009 7:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You can only beat them when you play them...

I find the rankings as dubious as the next guy, but I certainly don’t take anything away from our whipping Missouri and OSU last year even though neither finished anywhere close to where they were when we beat them. Our beating them could have played an important part in their ultimate downfalls. I would say early season rankings matter less than later season rankings, but I wouldn’t discount them altogether especially as motivation.

I just don’t see anyone else in 2007 that was obviously going to be any better on a particular Saturday than LSU. And rightly or wrongly playing an extra game should matter. If your conference is going to risk your ranking and your players by making you play in a championship game then you should get some bonus for having taken that risk. LSU beat a team that spanked UGA at mid-season and KU literally didn’t play anyone, either in early December or in the preceding 3 months.

I will agree that LSU is illegitimate but that is only because I don’t think big-time college football has ever provided a legitimate champion. I’ll take the titles we have been awarded, but until there is a playoff I consider all NC’s as mythical.

by Rickyspub on Sep 28, 2009 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

another thing to remember...

In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn’t matter if Alabama, OleMiss or LSU ever jumps Texas…only one can go to the title game (if any of them). I’m not counting on Florida dropping more than one game if any.

I’m currently rooting hardest against Cal, Penn State and Miami. I’m not afraid of Cinci, Boise or TCU, even if undefeated.

All Texas really needs to be concerned about is beating Oklahoma in mid-October. All the games until then are just warmups for the big game, and with a win in Dallas, I am thinking that the rest will take care of itself.

by brownf on Sep 24, 2009 3:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

lose one we're done...

Texas has to win out to get to the dance, its that simple. One Texas loss later in the season will give an undefeated Cal, Miami, or Penn State the ability to jump us. USC would jump us too if they run the table (which means they beat Cal). And don’t forget that if Texas were to drop any game, and OU runs the table with a healthy Bradford voters could easily be swayed in OU’s favor – especially with a win over Miami.

There is no possible way that more than 1 team will be undefeated in the SEC, and voters will not put a team that didn’t win its conference in the MNC (see Texas 2008). So basically, the national championship will pit the winner of the SEC vs Texas, Cal, Miami, Ohio State, Penn State, OU, or USC.

by BMG on Sep 24, 2009 3:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs