Colt McCoy’s stellar collegiate career has him high on the NFL Draft radar, regarded by some as a potential first-round pick. The dual-threat quarterback has four years of starting experience and results against good competition, and possesses the intangibles that will give him a chance to succeed. Faced with the daunting task of replacing Vince Young and defending a national championship as a freshman, the perennial Heisman candidate and 2009 Maxwell Award winner had a career completion percentage of 70.33, just shy of the all-time mark held by Hawaii’s Colt Brennan (70.39 percent). This study, however, analyzed each throws from four games this season (at Oklahoma State, vs. Kansas, at Texas A&M and vs. Nebraska) in an argument against McCoy’s draft status and future in the NFL, exposing his accuracy by an offense heavily aided by short passes. The Texas offense uses safe passes as a substitute for running plays and is notorious for short routes such as quick screens, slants, shovel passes and working underneath against defensive backs. Colt may have the ultimate gunslinger name, but with the following analysis it is easy to see that he will not live up to his name at the next level.

Each of McCoy’s throws in the four games were tracked on the basis of excluding yards after catch and recording completion percentage on throws behind the line of scrimmage versus 1-9, 10-19, 20-29, 30-39 and 40+ yards downfield. In this study, McCoy completed 66.67 percent of passes, slightly below the 70.6 percent on the 2009 season. During these games he threw for nine touchdowns and three interceptions, a ratio higher than the 2.25 TD/INT for the season and the 2.48 for his career.