FanPost

Stats Geeks: Need Your Input

Sometime during the middle of the season, amidst all of the "Boise! No, wait - TCU! No, scratch that - Cincinnati!" hoopla, I decided to work up my own FBS ranking system. This is just for grins, mind you - I'm not planning on trying to get it added as a component of the BCS or anything.

Briefly, my "rank reasoning" is as follows:

  • Winning is what counts. Therefore, a win over an FBS school is good for one point. Non-FBS schools don't count.
  • Winning on the road is harder than winning at home. Therefore, winning a road game is worth 1.5 points.
  • Winning by one is not the same as winning by twenty-one. Therefore, winning by more than one possession (>8 points) is worth 1.25 points, and winning by more than two possessions (>16 points) is worth 1.5 points.
  • The quality of the opposition matters. Therefore, some portion of a team's opponents' point totals must be added to that team's point total.

Now, this last point is tricky. The first time through, I simply added each team's opponents' point totals to the team's total, but this produced some weird results - like, for instance, Baylor being ranked ahead of Florida. Oops.

So, I tweaked the formula, and in its current incarnation, the top ten (after the bowl games) looks like this:

  1. Texas
  2. Alabama
  3. Florida
  4. TCU
  5. Boise State
  6. Nebraska
  7. Ohio State
  8. Oregon
  9. VaTech
  10. Penn St.

As you can see, there are still a few "oops" rankings in there - Texas/Alabama, TCU/Boise St., but eight of these ten teams match the final AP top-ten (not necessarily the numerical rank, but the choice of team).

I have not, as far as I know, included any bias toward the 'Horns; there are literally a thousand numerical score results, variables, and formulas on my big honkin' spreadsheet, and I don't think I've tilted any of them toward Austin. Why is Texas, then, ranked ahead of Alabama?

  • Both get 13 points for wins (Bama played one non-FBS school).
  • Both get 7.5 points for road wins.
  • Bama gets 5 points for 1-possession wins; UT gets 2.5
  • UT gets 13.5 points for 2-possession wins; Bama gets 10.5
  • Bama gets 23.35 points for their opponents; UT gets 23.9
  • Total: Bama 59.35 to UT 60.4

SEC trolls will balk at the two-possession wins and opponents' point totals, citing the "strength of the SEC" as a factor. Unfortunately, the point totals for the SEC teams don't substantiate the claim that it's a particularly tough conference to play in.

What I'm looking for from you, fellow BON'ers, is some input on my ranking logic, including your own suggestions for improvement or "what-if" type factors.

All comments, FanPosts, and FanShots are the views of the reader-authors who create them.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Burnt Orange Nation

You must be a member of Burnt Orange Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Burnt Orange Nation. You should read them.

Join Burnt Orange Nation

You must be a member of Burnt Orange Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Burnt Orange Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker