Why Texas Will Beat Alabama
by Peter Bean on Jan 6, 2010 12:55 AM CST
in Texas Longhorns Football
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PrintPreviously, my analysis of Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Below, a few scattered thoughts on my optimistic mood 36 hours before kickoff...
Expecting the unexpected. If there has been a theme to the 2009 season, it is that nothing is what it seems -- by now, we should expect the unexpected. Florida returning Tim Tebow and its entire two-deep on defense? Not the greatest team ever; not even the best team in its conference. Undefeated, second- and third-ranked Texas and Oklahoma squaring off in one of the regular season games of the decade? Squashed in week one at Jerryworld. It was a strange year in college football, and though we wound up with a helmet game for the national title, the season script never unfolded as it was supposed to. Hopefully that trend holds.
Alabama = TCU? Admittedly, that first point is just personal wishcasting, rather than an actual data point in why Texas can/should/will win. So let's consider this more concretely: I'm hopeful that last night's Fiesta Bowl bodes well for the Longhorns. Consider some of the parallels between the Fiesta Bowl and BCS Title Game. TCU was an overwhelming favorite against a team that practically everyone outside Boise ridiculed and doubted. Many fans of the Horned Frogs seemed more interested in aftermath proclamations than in the game itself, distracting themselves with "best team in Texas" talk before their team took care of business on the field.
Sounding familiar yet? Look, Alabama fans have every right to love their team, and even to feel strongly about their team's chances. And I've said more than a few times that Texas didn't play well enough that we can dismiss other teams' claims to be in the title game. We've not been dominant, and we didn't play a great schedule. Heading into the game, we're a lot like Boise State -- we played within the system's rules and fairly earned our spot in our BCS game, but no one's suggesting our resume is something to behold. And Alabama's a lot like TCU -- they've got the better resume, and have the big late-season win that makes them the justifiable heavy favorite.
Still, Alabama has to beat us on the field, just as TCU had to beat Boise on the field. Even after last night, I'm pretty sure TCU's the "better" team, but only in the abstract. Boise State is the champion, and rightfully so. They were looser and they played to win more so than did TCU. Take out all the side stuff and maybe TCU plays better and with a different attitude, but given the circumstances, Boise State was better suited to win the game. And did.
I really, really like that Texas is entering this game with a similar "nothing to lose, everything to prove" mindset, and I love that all the pressure is on Alabama to show that they are what they're supposed to be. Hey, maybe they will, and if they do, I'll be the first to tip my cap and congratulate them on being the best team in the land. But I really like the angle our team is taking into this game. This is when we're at our best. And I'm hopeful that Alabama, like TCU, finds that it's a lot harder to be as perfect as they and their coach believe they can and should be. We know we're flawed. We're just gonna come out and fight and play to win.
I expect that to be an advantage.
A reason to be our best. Only the most foolish still fail to appreciate Mack Brown's greatness as a head football coach at Texas, but equally foolish are those among his supporters who refuse to acknowledge where he is and isn't at his best. And there's nothing ungrateful about pointing out that Mack Brown is at his best when he's rebounding from struggles. It is in that sense that the Great Escape at the Big XII Championship game was, in some ways, the best thing that could have happened to this team.
There is no Vince Young this year. There are no single points of dominance that we can rely upon to win games, whether or not we're at our best. After our offensive struggles against Oklahoma and Nebraska, there's simply no way to believe that Mack Brown and Greg Davis haven't spent the last month thinking about what they need to do differently. And in that sense, no matter what you feel about those two in cutting things so close in the regular season, it has to be considered a good thing that we're backing into this title game with a clear mandate to do different, do more, on the offensive side of the ball.
Maybe what they decide to do proves ineffective or a poor solution to the problems, but one thing is certain: they have been given the reasons to try. We know the same old, same old wasn't going to cut it; so at the very least, the coaches won't be trying that. This is a good thing.
Our defense is comically underrated. Chalk it up to the reputation of the respective conferences of the two teams, but Texas's defense is ridiculously underrated compared to Alabama's. This is not to suggest anything ill towards Alabama's defense, either. It's terrific, and I've said so. But in my opinion the Crimson Tide's advantage in this game is not that their defense is better than Texas's, but that their offense is better designed and executed to grind through a tight defensive battle and put up points. If you put a gun to my head, I'd take the Texas defense over Alabama's. My worry is not that Alabama's defense is better, but that our offense is less likely to succeed against an elite defense. Still, among the two elite defenses, I prefer the Longhorns. And if we can get a good shot on McElroy, or an early turnover, I fully expect the rest of the nation to understand why.
Nick Saban is a stubborn freak. He's a great football coach -- in the conversation for the game's best, without question -- but his personality works against him at times. I was going to say he's a megalomaniac, but that's not quite right. It's not that he's delusional about anything; it's that he's a True Believer in what he preaches, to such a degree that in the face of failure, he believes it isn't the system (i.e. what he's teaching) that failed, but the execution. In many ways this serves him well, but in some ways it does not. Can not.
This has potentially game-defining ramifications for the BCS Title Game. No, seriously.
Here's the thing: Saban is on record, over and over, extolling his defensive philosophy. Mostly zone principles on first and second down, with a heavy -- heavy -- commitment to stopping the run. Honestly, I have no objections to that on its face. The issue, though, is that this is precisely the wrong strategy for defending this Texas offense. It might work anyway, depending on the kind of night McCoy is having, but given what we know about McCoy and this Texas offense, if you were starting from scratch you wouldn't design your defense against Texas this way.
So there's the question: Is Nick Saban going to stick with His Way on defense or will he and Kirby Smart craft a defensive game plan that is tailored to Texas? If the latter, the burden shifts to Greg Davis and Texas, and it's likely a Texas win means the Texas defense and special teams turned in college football's game of the year. But if the former... well, I'm not so sure that's not a defensive game plan Colt McCoy and Texas can't succeed against.
Jordan Shipley works zones like Tiger Woods does C-list celebrities. Colt McCoy is at his best when he's got time to let things develop (read: break down) and can make a play on the fly, either on his own or with a late-breaking receiver. You don't dominate this Texas offense by zoning it; you beat it by pressing it up tight and counting on your ability to get to McCoy quickly with extra rushers.
Will Nick Saban change his ways?
Malcolm Williams and Tre' Newton. File this in the "hunches" category, but I love the way these two compete. Texas will need every inch of extra yardage Newton gives us with his terrific feel in traffic and every bit of offensive advantage that Malcolm Williams gives us as the most athletically gifted receiver on the field. Sorry, Julio. You're a badass. Properly used, Malcolm's better. If we do... If he is... We'll be tough. We'll win.
Nebraska. Along with Boise State's defeat over TCU, the single most meaningful bowl result as pertains to the national title game was Nebraska's 33-0 curb-stomping of Arizona. Sure, Florida's dismantling of Cincinnati made Alabama look good, but that's like getting a piece of chocolate cake after finishing a ten course meal. What more did Alabama need?
Texas, on the other hand, needed a shot of confidence after their tight contest with Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers' dominant performance in San Diego was ideal in that regard. Rather than doubt themselves for their struggles against the Nebraska D, the Texas offense gets a psychological lift that it survived one of the nation's top defensive units and have one more opportunity to make it right.
I like that... For all these reasons, I like Texas's chances.
As I get back to work on other things, I doubt I'll get to post on the game again until the Open Game Thread.
So here's my prediction: Texas 26 Alabama 24.
Hook 'em
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Good post PB
You’ve got me feelin’ good about our chances after being beat down by all the national pundits. Last read before bedtime….can’t freakin’ wait for Thursday! Hook’em!
Im just hoping for a Longhorn victory
Hook’em
by Javi on Jan 6, 2010 1:22 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Agreed.
I don’t care if it’s 3-2, so long as it’s Texas with 3. \m/
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
Though if I am pressed to present a prediction of my own...
I’ll say 16-13, Horns.
"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin
I see no mistakes in that analysis.
The “underrated Texas D” and “Nebraska as a primer team” points seem particularly compelling. Additionally, I’m unconvinced that McElroy can have a second ‘career day’ this Thursday.
I guess Texas wins by 10 points.
I kinda wish the game was already over.
Don’t get me wrong I’ll enjoy the hell out of it, hopefully anyway, but I’m so tired of the pundits. I can’t watch any sporting event without hearing about how Texas has zero chance of winning. Every single aspect of the game has been given to Alabama and they’ve already been given the confetti shower by the media. Every good thing about Texas has been completely dismissed. Actually I’m kinda surprised that they haven’t trashed the Texas pom yet. Maybe they’re saving that segment for later today. “Don’t get me wrong the women are attractive and the chaps are more unique than most schools but have you seen Alabama’s squad? WOW!!!!!”
pundits
Im with you, the pundits need to take a vacation,this should be a game for the ages and may the best team win,rtr,im as nervous about playing texas as any bama fan will tell you we dont seem to play as well when were favorites but i expect a really great game and i am just hoping we can finally put a win in the win column for bama after all since weve never beaten you how come were the favorites? ya’ll had a great season and are a class program and i feel it will be a nailbiter good luck to ya’ll but im hoping for a Bama win over a class program. These 2 schools will always be the top 2 schools when it comes to CLASS,no one else even comes in a close third. RTR!!!!!
Great read.
That was like opening a gift on Christmas eve, lol. I hope and pray Thursday is Christmas for the ’Horns and their fans.
ps. I don’t know that you really wanna hook a crimson tide, so let’s just stampede their ass!
When I start to doubt, I just remember
Colt McCoy vs. Greg McElroy
If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!
When I start to doubt I just think...
Mark Ingram
by RammerJammer23 on Jan 6, 2010 8:22 AM CST up reply actions
When I see that stat,
I think “Stats are for losers.”
Lee Corso: How would you describe tailgating at Alabama?
Kirk Herbstreit: Barbecue and Ralph Lauren
by animalcracker on Jan 6, 2010 7:00 PM CST up reply actions
Defensive slugfests are too stressful
give me a 38-28 victory! But I agree it is likely to be much lower scoring.
your score preditions
honestly, your wishful thinking has clouded your brains. Bama wins by 14 points. And if Texas shows up like they did against Nebraska, make that Bama by 30 points.
A little mathematical proof for you...
Not really a “proof”, just my train of thought pertaining to what I believe:
UT offense > Bama offense
- (Bama defense = UT defense)
_______________________
UT offense – Bama defense > Bama offense – UT defense ===> UT points > Bama points
by ElMariachiLoco on Jan 6, 2010 10:59 AM CST up reply actions
Or...
the mass opposing projections of Bama crushing UT has clouded many of your minds, Texas won’t show up with much even resembling that game, and the same score may be flipped if the Auburn game repeats.
by Infield Elephant on Jan 6, 2010 11:07 AM CST up reply actions
Nice post...
and I agree with your point that the Texas D is underrated. I think, looked at side-by-side, the Bama D does have a slight edge…but for some reason people are acting like Texas is a glass cannon (all offense but no D), which isn’t even remotely true. As a ‘Bama fan, this concerns me- except that I don’t think our players will buy into it. I think coach Saban has them all aware that they’ll be facing a Texas team that is great in every aspect of the game. I know coach Brown will have the ’Horns similarly prepared.
Looking forward to a great war tomorrow! Roll Tide, I’m glad the wait is nearly over!
"You have to create six seconds of hell, every time the ball is snapped..."
-Nick Saban
well, is see where your going...
and I understand you have to show the good angles for Texas, but this is reeeeeealy stretching it…
“Texas, on the other hand, needed a shot of confidence after their tight contest with Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers’ dominant performance in San Diego was ideal in that regard. Rather than doubt themselves for their struggles against the Nebraska D, the Texas offense gets a psychological lift that it survived one of the nation’s top defensive units and have one more opportunity to make it right.”
So your telling me, and banking on a reason for a win, that NU beat the crap out of team X, so therefor they are pretty good, and since you barely beat them and had a hard time with their defense, that your players sat around and watched that and said “Oh, they are good. We aren’t so bad then. We really are good.” and they will play better? Against an even better defense?
okaaaaay.
okay, sure
Well, stats for one. Bama ranks ahead of Nebraska in total defense, rushing, passing, etc. Also eye sight. I watched Nebraska a few times this year, including the Big 12 Champ game. They are great. But after reading allt he facts, and watching Bama’s defense this year, and their dismantling of the Mighty Gators and Supermna’s offense, I think it shows how great Saban’s schemes and this defense is. 20 Ints, Butkus award winner, tackles for losses, a dominant NT (not as good a Suh, we all know that) and a healthy rotation of lineman, linebackers, and secondary makes them better in the 4th quarter than many others. All those combined, plus the grind of playing spread teams and power teams in the SEC, makes Bama a better defense than Nebraska.
(I can’t believe I had to proce Bama’s Defense is better than Nebraska’s on Texas board before the NCG)
Mighty Gators?
Everyone across the country questioned UF’s offense and how it would put up against a great defense like Bama’s. Florida had trouble against much lesser defenses, but they kept their stats up by blasting vastly inferior teams in the non-conference. It doesn’t take much to know that Cincy’s defense was also so where in the realm of Boise St or TCU let alone Texas or Bama. The fact is that the UF offense was completely one dimensional, one player focused. It lacked any semblance of a running game outside of Tebow against quality opponents and while Tebow is lots of great things he certainly isn’t a quick, accurate passer.
Tebow’s production was lower and he didn’t have the playmakers he had last year. It was a great win for Bama, but it was not the same as beating the 2008 Florida Gators.
by BMG on Jan 6, 2010 9:20 AM CST up reply actions
p.s.
just debating, having fun. Looking forward to a great game. Would love to say Bama beat Texas in one of the all time classics.
Florida lost that game themselves. Keep dreaming Bammers. Horns win!
by Dawnpatrol on Jan 6, 2010 8:56 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
it's always hard for me to believe statements like that when
the team in question loses 32-13. Usually when a team loses a game because of themselves, they at least had a shot at winning.
Its about execution as much as confidence...
I can see the Texas line going into the game worried about getting Suh’ed and then quickly realizing that the Bama D doesn’t have a Suh and that by just executing they are capable of maintaining their assignments. If Saban does indeed stick with his defensive philosophy then the line might prove to be much more capable than they looked against Nebraska. Give McCoy a bit of time and he can wreak havoc on a D. Nebraska has now shown they have a uniquely dominant D-line that wasn’t just feeding off a supposed Big 12 weakness. Bama has a great DL but it isn’t like Nebraska’s and the philosophy of the Bama D is different. Those differences might just play into our favor to a greater degree than the pundits seem to think.
Good analysis. Hope you're wrong!
Bama grad here, and I must say, this is a very well written, well reasoned column. Of course, I hope Bama wins, but if they lose, I have a feeling it’ll happen because of the reasons you’ve outlined here. I’m glad, for instance, that Bama wiped out Florida. (Somebody needed to. The Gators were arrogant and deserved it.) But I also worry that it could work against the Tide in this game. After Bama’s close win at Auburn, and Florida’s rout over Florida State, Gator fans were all over the place, claiming Bama didn’t belong on the same field with them. We know how that turned out.
I know Texas will come to play, and that the Longhorns offense will be much improved over the performance against Nebraska. The key factor in the Nebraska game, just like the key factor in Bama’s win over Auburn, is the Tide and Longhorns found a way to win at the end. They have an inner strength that just refuses to lose.
I do disagree with a few points in this column: You can’t compare Bama to TCU. Bama has been here before. They were tested against the No. 1 team in the country (Florida) in a game in which Bama had everything to lose. So in that respect, the Florida win certainly helps.
Also, Saban and Smart will adjust the defense if the “stop the run, then worry about the pass” scheme isn’t working. It’s one reason Bama is such a good fourth quarter team.
But hey, again, this is an excellent column and totally reasonable. I just hope your’re wrong!
Cheers.
One more reason
Colt McCoy gets it done at crunch time. If we need a miracle, Colt’s the guy.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
I say Texas comes out hot
As underdogs often are, I believe the ‘Horns will be on fire early. And Alabama will be sooo tight. Combine Saban’s overripe intensity, the stage, the fact that Bama is favored and has been gushed over for a month…you won’t be able to pound a b-b in their butts with a ball-peen hammer. Texas scores fairly quickly with just a little imagination (come on Greg…you can do it) on some mis-direction and solid play-action. Then our D steps up and gets a turnover (and maybe even a pick-six) and it’s 14-0. After being shat upon for that same month, the defense will be ready to rock.
Now…what do both teams do next? Therein defines the winner. It could become a landslide if ’Bama remembers the Utah game and panics, and McElroy reverts back to mid-season form. (I agree that two career-games in a row is fairly unlikely for him.) Or, Bama claws back in and wears us down with defensive stops and pounding the ground game.
The most intriguing part of this will be in the mid-half and halftime adjustments. Both staffs are capable of making smart moves and both teams have the horses to execute on them. Whatever happens, it’s gonna be fun to watch…
…and I might throw up.
41-38 !!
JoeT63 said: “the fact that Bama is favored and has been gushed over for a month…you won’t be able to pound a b-b in their butts with a ball-peen hammer.”
Yes, that would be tight. But I disagree with you, Bama will be confident but relaxed. I guess I could give you a similar analogy, but will save the board from reading such. :)
I think we all know here at BON that the fans of Bama...
are beaming with confidence but can you speak for the players. The big question is will the players be confident and relaxed. They looked pretty uptight in all the press conferences I watched.
ATX
I don't think that the way they looked is anything out of the ordinary.
The interviews I’ve seen, they look the same as they have all season.
24-14, Alabama.
Just as in last year’s bowl season, goofy 5-wide ball fails again in the face of real defenses.
by Texas_Dawg on Jan 6, 2010 8:59 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Ummmm
Didn’t Utah beat Alabama?
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Jan 6, 2010 10:09 AM CST up reply actions
what?
"Dont yall think that crystal beautiful yall?" -Vince Young
by Texastriplecrown on Jan 6, 2010 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
Check the box scores from last year's bowl games...
Those amazing 50-point/game B12 offenses completely failed in the face of real defenses. Texas was the only one that managed to escape without a loss thanks to a last minute TD to break 20 against the SEC’s favorite B10 punching bag.
Nebraska finally produced a defense for the Big 12 this year. And goofy 5-wide ball managed 13 points against it last game. It will be just as big a failure in this game as well. Watch.
by Texas_Dawg on Jan 6, 2010 1:33 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Please leave and go do something productive..
like getting banned from Lonestarball multiple times.
by Hookem4life84 on Jan 6, 2010 1:43 PM CST up reply actions
are you talking about
the same goofy 5-wide team we beat last year too? or are you talking about that spread team that won the Sugar bowl?
I’m confused.
This comment is fail.
Sounds like this fellow may be even more of a dinosaur than Jim Tressel.
by TheElusiveShadow on Jan 6, 2010 11:41 AM CST up reply actions
Good Job, PB...let me take you back in time though
First. We do not primarily run zone. We run man-press. We RAN zone (and a lot of it) against UF because Tebow couldn’t beat a dominant team by virtue of pass alone, so why not throw 6-7-8 back there and dare him to try?
But, even in those instances where we run zone, it’s been pretty effective: the benefit of having the best all around-defense, I guess. I seem to recall a certain group of skills players at Miami in 1992 who said much the same thing that you’re saying: It’s the wrong style of play. We know how that one turned out ;)
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Jan 6, 2010 9:08 AM CST reply actions
In Saban's own words...
From one of his defensive playbooks:
"[Our] philosophy on first and second down is to stop the run and play good zone pass defense. We will occasionally play man-to-man and blitz in this situation. On third down, we will primarily play man-to-man and mix-in some zone and blitzes. We will rush four or more players versus the pass about ninety-percent of the time.
"In all situations, we will defend the inside or middle of the field first – defend inside to outside. Against the run, we will not allow the ball to be run inside. We want to force the ball outside. Against the pass, we will not allow the ball to be thrown deep down the middle or inside. We want to force the ball to be thrown short and/or outside.
"… Finally, our job is to take the ball away from the opponents’ offense and score or set up good field position for our offense. We must knock the ball loose, force mistakes, and cause turnovers. Turnovers and making big plays win games. We will be alert and aggressive and take advantage of every opportunity to come up with the ball . . . . The trademark of our defense will be effort, toughness, and no mental mistakes regarding score or situation in any game."
You ain't hurt.
i read that same thing from Saban but
im sure you’d agree that its an extreme over simplification. Our DB’s are actually taught “route reading” something only a few college defenses do. So though they are playing “zone”, they are in fact still playing man. Its one reason why opposing QB’s struggle passing against us.
"The goal is to be a champion," Saban said. "I didn’t say to win a championship. I just said be a champion. That’s our goal here. That’s what we want to do."- Nick Saban
by bammer on Jan 6, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I love how Alabama brings up Nebraska...
You guys beat VT by 10 points only to beat Tennessee by 2 points but then VT beats Tennessee by 23 points? Uhhh….can someone from Bama use this mathematical equation of comparisons to help explain why they didn’t beat the other UT by like a gazillion? NEXT
Colt, Cody, Kicking game, & Kindle…. our four keys to success!
Fearless prediction – 23-17 Texas in a defensive affair….
"I've never gone into a game trying to win the Heisman Trophy; I go into a game trying to win." - Colt McCoy
Math:
I’m usually good at it, but this is quantum physics crap. Like last year when UT>OU>TTU>UT>OU>TTU>UT>OU>TTU……
It just makes your head explode. And your calculator overload.
by ElMariachiLoco on Jan 6, 2010 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
Easy math
Bama beat Tennessee + VT beat Tennesse = Tennessee sucked this year
If Alabama had lost to Tennessee, you might have a reason to post.
Robertpz, I’ve caught a few of your math errors on BON, but you continue to fumble with arithmetic. Weird.
Lee Corso: How would you describe tailgating at Alabama?
Kirk Herbstreit: Barbecue and Ralph Lauren
by animalcracker on Jan 6, 2010 7:09 PM CST up reply actions
We don't call 23-17
a defensive affair in the SEC…that’s a big difference right there.
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Jan 7, 2010 1:58 PM CST up reply actions
5 wide
My hope is Texas lines up in 4 or 5 WRs and tests Alabama to run with them for the whole game. I wonder how many times Bama has been forced to cover 4 WRS for 50 pass plays. With that point my question would be who is the nickel and dime DB for Bama? And can they cover Buckner and Goodwin for 40-50 plays?
I hope for no 5-wide
And sparse 4 wide.
by BoddickerIsClutch on Jan 6, 2010 9:31 AM CST up reply actions
Nickel/Dime
The first extra DB off the Bama bench will be senior Marquis Johnson. MJ singlehandedly cost us the Florida game last year. He tried his best, but simply was not good enough to cover UF’s third or fourth best reciever. This year teams attempted to burn MJ with absolutely no success. Spurrier threw the exact same fade route against MJ in three consecutive goal line plays and MJ stopped all three cold. This year he is a real asset. MJ broke his finger after the SEC championship and will have a cast which may affect ability to intercept balls.
Other DBs in nickel/dime situations are senior Ali Sharrief (good system guy but not overly talented) and sophmore Robbie Green (likely starter next year). Two 5 star DBs BJ Scott & Dre Kirkpatrick play only on special teams or unless someone is hurt.
ask arkansas
if they have the depth at receiver that Texas has, the continuity of playing in the same system for their entire college career, and an experience 2 time Heisman finalist at QB.
The comparisons to Arkansas and Auburn are amusing.
I'm sure B12 defenses would have made Mallett a Heisman finalist as well...
If they could put Graham Harrell in the top 10 in voting, they could certainly do so for Mallett.
receivers had nothing to do with that game
mallet running for his life and Bama running all over arky’s D were the deciding factors. (plus i think we had a 80 yd td pass, another 50 yard pass, and trent busted a 50 plus yard rush TD…. Bama will score on big plays too if you cant tackle. tejas doesn’t tackle, i’m not sure if they can or not, never seen em try.)
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
i wonder if mccoy will be able to get the ball off 40 times
he’s not going to have much time you know…
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
Several times, actually
FIU, NT, Ark, UK, Ole Miss, Auburn, So. Car….
Should I continue? The only teams that have played us physically close all year have powered it at us and dared us to wear down (e.g., LSU and UT).
Not starting trash, just telling you it’s happened.
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Jan 7, 2010 2:01 PM CST up reply actions
He is the only one who's never lost though...
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Jan 7, 2010 2:01 PM CST up reply actions
Texas 20 - Bama 17
I expect Bama to lead throughout most of the first 3 quarters. Texas just needs to stay within 7 points. We will get our looks at big plays on offense, and we’ll either cause a fumble or get a good look at an int. If we can convert the opportunities we will inevitably get, then it will be close.
If the season comes down to one drive, we know McCoy, Shipley, and company can deliver.
4th quarter?
I surprised you look at it this way. As a Bama fan, I would feel very comfortable going into the 4th quarter with a lead given the teams conditioning and track record this year. However, Bama is not built to come from behind…
Yep, because we've only done it three times
this year alone…
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Jan 7, 2010 2:02 PM CST up reply actions
Four reasons the Horns will win
Earl, the Achos, Williams will make McElroy’s life a nightmare. And god forbid it comes down to a FG in the final seconds, the video also features Mr. Clutch himself – Hunter Lawrence.
Still a Blaine Irby fan
McClain is the X factor
As a Bama fan, I would much prefer to be the underdog. All the factors outside of the teams control favors UT.
I have my doubts that UA can match its performance against UF. We had been preparing for UF for a year and I was confident of a blow-out.
Our MVP is Ro McClain if he truly has the flu and is not able to perform at a high level UT wins this game. Ro cannot be replaced.
This game may come down to who has the ball last. Skould be a classic. RTR!
The question is...
Will UT match FU’s performance? Nope. We’ll coming out firing with the desire of 1,000 Bevos.
by ElMariachiLoco on Jan 6, 2010 11:06 AM CST up reply actions
Furman?
Lee Corso: How would you describe tailgating at Alabama?
Kirk Herbstreit: Barbecue and Ralph Lauren
by animalcracker on Jan 6, 2010 7:11 PM CST up reply actions
I'm glad I read this one
AFTER reading Big Roy’s post. Back to an even keel.
Disciplina Praesidium Civitatis.
PB in law school?
Hey Peter – GREAT writing; style and content.
Question: Are you in law school? I am (at bloomington) and your writing just screams to me that you’re in law school. I found your pondering and clarification about Saban’s megalomaniac / stubborn personality pretty amusing because it’s this kind of rhetorical precision that I find so consistent with students of the law.
Keep up the great work and hook’em horns!
P.S. – Is anybody going to be at Pluckers on 183@Burnet for the game? If so, see ya there!
by LonghornHoosier on Jan 6, 2010 10:23 AM CST reply actions
Ha
Thanks, and yes. Finishing my third year right now. In many ways, it’s made me a worse writer. I’ve put together some nuanced sentences that readers rightly called out for being the garbage that they were.
Hook ’em and happy new year!
You ain't hurt.
Law school and being a lawyer have made me a much worse writer.
I qualify every single thing I say with about 10 layers of nuance to the point where the meaning inevitably gets lost unless you take the time to parse it out. Terrible.
What he said...
five years out, and my sentences become abidingly more “See Spot Run”, only with a ton of qualifiers.
/hates his life…
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Jan 7, 2010 2:05 PM CST up reply actions
Law school kills your ability to write...
with any sense of creativity, in any event. It also destroys your humanity and makes you emotionally callous and cynical to every degree imaginable.
/why didn’t I stay in grad school?
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Jan 7, 2010 2:04 PM CST up reply actions
Colt will be the difference.
He will make enough plays that are decisive and so “just when we needed something good to happen.” I’m going with the good guys 20 – 19.
I'll never forget ol' what's-his-name.
Great post
Thank you for the shot of confidence this morning, especially after reading GoBR’s good, but rather downer of a post on Justice. I think we could go even further with some key points about our passing game being superior to what Bama has seen, stopping Ingram and TR, etc, but you hit on some different ideas well and now I’m all worked up and giddy again.
Hook ’em!
by Infield Elephant on Jan 6, 2010 10:47 AM CST reply actions
Great write up
Confidence is back up after reading Big Roy’s brutal analysis.
To me, Bama doesn’t seem oriented to win a shoot out. Texas is highly capable of doing so. Advantage = Texas
In a defensive struggle, Texas has shown that it can also pull out the win (as has Bama). Advantage = Push
This game has been broken down so many times in so many different ways that it’s kind of pointless to add anything else. This one will come down to execution. Both teams are so evenly matched that nothing else will matter.
Earl Thomas
I’m looking for a pick 6 from Earl. I bet he has had a good month off.
by jimmer on Jan 6, 2010 11:26 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Good Article
But Alabama plays to their competition and if it takes a shoot out dont think they cant oblige. Doing so will be detrimental to the Texas team and their national title hopes. If you think for a minute that Alabama doesnt have the speed or the power to keep up with Texas in a high scoring game then you need to really look at this Alabama team and their skill players. Julio Jones hasnt even had a good game yet this year but you can bet theres one in there waiting to happen. If you are the least little bit worried about Mark Ingram….well you better be more worried about Trent Richardson because he will bust you in the mouth and out run you too. If you stop Julio Jones Marquis Maze will burn your butt not to mention Colin Peek running free while you are double covering Ingram and Maze. Thats just the offense, the defense speaks for itself. Not that I think Alabama will blow Texas out , just that I think they can play your game and beat you at it. Alabama 21 Texas 14.
UT will benefit
from having a month of hearing the media say Alabama is better. They had one narrow win and suddenly everyone wrote them off. With his talk of the media trying to make one team a David and the other Goliath, Saban is not happy that Alabama is the favorite. Because of this, he has tried to isolate the team from this thinking and I hope that the brutal nature of Alabama’s practices (spring style scrimmages, spring style hitting periods, extra weightlifting, etc.), an aberration for bowl practices, is a pretty good indication that the Tide will be focused.
But you never know with bowl games and Texas has certainly performed better—in bigger bowls—than Alabama has in recent years. Alabama is still re-learning how to win big games, while Texas knows how to win big games.
The key for Texas is to play their game with poise, which they easily could do. A pinpoint passing attack is hard to stop regardless of who’s on defense. They know how to win and they have the horses to beat Alabama. The key for Alabama is to play with the offensive physicality that they displayed against Virginia Tech, LSU, and Florida. We need to bang on Texas the way we banged on VT, LSU, and Florida. That takes a lot out of the team, but hey, this is the last game. Alabama has to force Texas into a physical slugfest if they are to have any chance of winning because we don’t match-up well in any other style of game.
To sum it up, Texas has the best offense Alabama has faced this year and Alabama is the most physical offensive/defensive team Texas has faced. Both teams have great coaches and great players. It’s a toss-up IMO. I’m not going to point to scores and the transitive property or whatever to try to determine who will win because I’ve played and coached enough football to know how irrelevant that stuff really is. Good luck to both.
Roll Tide
MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--
BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.
you know we're gonna win dude. stop being so diplomatic lol!
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
Good write up, and certainly slanted with the UT tilt (which is to be expected)
But I think one thing u fail to realize is Saban’s ability to adjust at half time. This year he has done so and in most games – VT, LSU, KY, UM, AU, UF come to mind – we have dominated the fourth quarter thanks to adjustment by Saban and his staff, whether it be offense or defense. Your assessment that he is stubborn and won’t adapt his gameplan is way, way off.
I know you guys have a solid D, but I don’t think you will be able to run the ball on us nor stop our run. I think we will be able to play a comfortable 3-4, and as SITP pointed out we can run zone when needed but we sit primarily in that man-to-man. Our D is the best you have faced this year, and our weakness last year – pass coverage – has turned into one of the best this year; ranked 8th nationally (163.77 YPG vs Texas, at #25, with 188.92 YPG). And yes, I know the Big 12 has more passing yards than us (250.93 ypg vs 202.86 ypg), but you average less per completion (11.62 ypc vs 12.53 ypc). This doesn’t mean your pass defense is better than ours, we just run the ball alot more in the SEC.
And I think the running game, offense and defense, is where we will take control. Texas is the #1 ranked rushing defense, holding opponents to 62.15 ypg; bama is #2 holding opponents to 77.92 ypg. However, Texas hasn’t played any teams that rank in the top 20 in rushing offense (only 2 in the top 35) while Bama has played 4 teams in the top 20 and 6 in the top 35 nationally. We will be able to establish the run, and we will grind you down by running the ball. The game will be close, but we will take over in the 4th and put it away.
You play fast, you play strong, you go out there and dominate the guy you play against, and make his ass quit! That's our trademark, that's our MO as a team, aight, that's what people know us as! - Nick Saban, 2008
some insights from Bama fans Ive noticed
A couple of things I have seen a lot from Bama fans:
1: Back handed compliments – “I know yall have a good defense BUT Bama sees GREAT defenses every week in the SEC” etc. etc. {}
2: Over Confidence – I havent seen many, if any, Bama fans think they have a chance in hell of losing this game because they are SOOO good. Pride cometh before the fall…eth….
Overall I have no beef with Bama Fan, they are intelligent and knowledgable and love their pedigree and history. But they dont seem to know much about this Texas team, which is to be expected, they dont cheer for Texas and probably dont see many Texas games. Which is exactly why some of the comments ive read about how they are going to run all over us, and how thier defense will smother us doesnt bother me much.
Has Texas been as impressive as Bama? I dont know… honestly I dont care. We both had our games that we escaped with victory, they have been pointed out all month so no reason to go there.
We both have our stars and fan favorites, We both have excellent coaching staffs.
That adds up to me as a coin flip, either of these teams could win and I hope its Texas
HOOKEM!
"Texas Till I Die"
Um… how much do you think you know about this Alabama team? What theyve been through? The mindset of these young men? Probably not much…which is to be expected…
"The goal is to be a champion," Saban said. "I didn’t say to win a championship. I just said be a champion. That’s our goal here. That’s what we want to do."- Nick Saban
by bammer on Jan 6, 2010 1:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
your point bro..
was pointless…
Plenty of Bama fans feel we can lose this game. I haven’t seen a guy on this page yet say that Texas will lose other than Bama fans…which again is to be expected…
But they dont seem to know much about this Texas team, which is to be expected, they dont cheer for Texas and probably dont see many Texas games. Which is exactly why some of the comments ive read about how they are going to run all over us, and how thier defense will smother us doesnt bother me much.
Um..home skillet…the same exact thing could be said for Texas fans…hence my comment above.
"The goal is to be a champion," Saban said. "I didn’t say to win a championship. I just said be a champion. That’s our goal here. That’s what we want to do."- Nick Saban
by bammer on Jan 6, 2010 2:06 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Broseph...
your still here? ok… Ill break it down for you: BAMA FAN is telling everyone why they will beat Texas like they know Texas SOOO well, and that Texas is pretty much garbage. (dont dispute it, your arrogance is apearant)
TEXAS FANS are saying here is what we do well, lets hope it works against what we understand to be a great team.
What im saying to you is this: Dont come around here dropping Home-skillet’s and talking about how you know your going to beat Texas, when really YOU DONT KNOW CRAP ABOUT US.
Word to mother, sucker.
"Texas Till I Die"
here is what we do well
run the ball with power, zone, play action, and the wildcat. pass to whoever we want, but usually dont go more than 3 wide, rarely 4. we have the best D in the country. the only way to beat our D is to over power them and run down our throats.
i understand you guys like to spread em wide and sling the ball around, that your QB is your leading rusher.
good luck tomorrow.
for the next five days there is nothing in my heart but hate. pure, untempered, ice-cold hate. fond memories are for saturday. - Kleph
lol freak show
Isn’t this a post on why Texas will beat Alabama? Check out my post at the bottom, which was posted before my reply above!
and i quote
Ill be the first to say i have no clue what will happen. Picking the score of this game is like trying to pick the day and time of Jesus’ return…its impossible. If we win, then awesome..if we lose then i will not hold my head down…Losing to Texas is no where as embarrassing as losing to Utah..I do think we win but i have no clue how it will transpire. There are so many variables that can and will only be solved on the field…
and my home skillet reference was to your “homie” response..home slice :)
If there is anyone on this thread whos comments are enriched with arrogance…its not mine…
"The goal is to be a champion," Saban said. "I didn’t say to win a championship. I just said be a champion. That’s our goal here. That’s what we want to do."- Nick Saban
Duderino...
My original comment wasnt a personal attack on you bro, it was about some things ive noticed about Bama Fan. Im sorry if I upset you and made your vag all itchy and sandy.
Why are you here stirring it up, I reach out with a very diplomatic “homie” and you throw it in my face. “Your being very un-dude”
The freak show is guys getting on the other teams boards and spouting verbal diahrea.
"Texas Till I Die"
im honestly not stiring the pot...at least it wasn't my point..
i was just trying to point out that your logic about one fan base not knowing about the opposing team is a “vice versa” sitCHEation…
g-dog..
"The goal is to be a champion," Saban said. "I didn’t say to win a championship. I just said be a champion. That’s our goal here. That’s what we want to do."- Nick Saban
Thanks,
Now you’ve got Bean reprimanding me. I would make a remark but don’t know if its “clean enough”
G-Dog? LOL – you did it man, you outclassed me on that one.
"Texas Till I Die"
Ohh well
I couldn’t help myself, Im going to try to re-explain it to you again:
It has been my observation that Bama Fan (not YOU or anyone SPECIFIC on this board) has done a lot of talking about how they know they will beat Texas because (INSERT WHATEVER REASON….)
I havent seen Texas Fan boasting how well we know Bama and exactly how we will beat them.
PB’s post aside because he has done a lot of great analysis and much more familiar with Bama than most of Texas Fan.
"Texas Till I Die"
"Your being very un-dude"
(Listening to the “Sounds of the Whale” cassette tape): Ah, ah, far out, man, far F’ing out!"
Nihilists enter and smash answering machine with fraternity paddle.
MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--
BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.
LOL
I love the poster of Richard Nixon bowling over his mantle…
“do i look married? The toilet seat is up man!”
"Texas Till I Die"
Jackie Treehorn
treats objects like women, man.
Jackie Treehorn draws a lot of water in this town.
MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--
BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.
BTW
It sounds to me like you feel Nebraska’s win over Arizona makes you look better than you really are…..beginning to sound like an Auburn team with their moral victory. Alabam had a demoralizing defeat to Utah in last years Sugar Bowl, dont fool yourself in thinking that it will happen again this year.
Keep the Auburn comparisons to yourself.
We don’t come to your house calling you Aggies. Or another crimson team.
Defensive Approaches vs. Offensive Approaches
I really appreciate that you pointed out the primary approach taken by Alabama’s defense and how it fits (or doesn’t fit) with the approach of Texas’ offense because I think this is one of the most overlooked matchups of the game.
After seeing one of the numerous segments on TV about how Texas struggling with Nebraska’s D means they have no chance against Bama’s D which is “better” than Nebraska I routinely scream at my TV that they are comparing apples and oranges. Don’t get me wrong, Bama has a great D and that can’t be denied but I believe it is oversimplifying things to say Texas will automatically have enormous struggles against Bama because they struggled against Nebraska.
Nebraska has a great pass rush – Bama doesn’t. Bama has huge run stoppers up front and a really good linebacker that is very effective playing in space. Nebraska was very effective against Texas because they rush the QB and wreak havoc on the passing game, which happens to be Texas’ forte. Bama dominated Florida (and the SEC more or less) because most of those teams play the run first, grind it out style that their defense specializes in stopping. Nebraska was/is highly effective at getting in the backfield and stopping the pass because that is what is most necessary for a defense in the Big 12. Texas has made attempts to establish a running game to keep defenses honest but they have by no means relied on the running game to win. When I hear someone say that Texas won’t be able to run the ball “effectively” against Alabama I almost want to say, “Who cares?” We have had several games this year where by most definitions we did not run the ball “effectively” and correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like it has worked out well for us. Texas has a much different threshold for effectiveness in the running game than most teams do.
I understand Saban is a defensive genius and will make adjustments but it drives me crazy when people simply state that Bama is better than Nebraska on D and Texas therefore has no chance. Bama might be better but they are also quite different and I for one am very interested to see how things play out if Bama doesn’t get pressure on McCoy and plays a zone most of the night.
by MajorToFollowMuschamp on Jan 6, 2010 11:57 AM CST reply actions
I have to disagree
We have had several games this year where by most definitions we did not run the ball "effectively" and correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like it has worked out well for us
Yes, because you played inferior defenses. When you only rushed for 18 yards against Nebraska, you came ridiculously close to getting beat. Don’t mistake that rushing yards are extremely important against top defenses; if you guys come out and are forced to be one dimensional, it will be a long day for UT.
And Bama’s pass rush isn’t ranked #2 like Nebraska’s, but we are averaging 2.38 spg (#32). If you think Colt won’t get pressured, you are sorely, sorely mistaken. We dominated Florida because we made Tebow one dimensional AND GOT PRESSURE ON HIM. McElroy also had a phenomenal game against a top 3 defense; Colt didn’t. I’m not saying he can’t, but I really think he will have to put the Horns on his shoulders to win, and I’m not sure he can.
You play fast, you play strong, you go out there and dominate the guy you play against, and make his ass quit! That's our trademark, that's our MO as a team, aight, that's what people know us as! - Nick Saban, 2008
by BamaReturns07 on Jan 6, 2010 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
Clarification
I may have failed to communicate this point in my original post but generally speaking this is what I meant:
Yes Alabama is a good defense and sure I expect them to get pressure on Colt, make adjustments etc BUT I don’t think there is any automatic correlation between a struggle against Nebraska and no chance against Alabama because the strengths of those Ds are different.
If Bama wins the game (I will even concede they are the favorite for good reason) I suspect it will be because they were the better team and were able to execute on both sides of the ball and I will not offer any excuses. I don’t think any rational person can automatically say Texas has no chance – but I seem to be hearing that a lot so there are either a lot of irrational people with opinions or there are people that are just wrong.
by MajorToFollowMuschamp on Jan 6, 2010 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
well
how about after the game I’ll come right back to this post, and if yall win I will say congrats, but if we win I’ll come back here and ask what happened to these predictions, and I expect a lot of excuses
Just because a bunch of sports analyst/writers say Bama is a better team doesn't mean it's true.
We have all read the ridiculous comments from the so called experts. Who hasn’t had a difference of opinion from what they say. After all these same people brought us the Urban Meyer to Notre Dame and Bob Stoops to South Bend stories. Point is they were wrong there and are wrong once again here.
-
This is the BCS Title game. Both teams are 13-0 and you just don’t get this far if you suck. As much as I would love to see a blowout….beer drinking, dancing in my living room, comfy win, it’s just not going to happen.
-
You can believe anything you wan’t to as a headline. Rest assured though these teams are the best of the 2009 college footnball season. If you project this Bama team to come in thinking all they have to do is suit up and take the field for the win you would be a bi-product of the medias knee jerk forcast.
-
I assure you Bama knows this is the BCS Championship Game. The players understand their opponent is worthy and deserving to be there. So,,,Texas fans, I’m sorry to inform you of this, but The Tide isn’t looking ahead. This is the end road. There’s not another game to be played this season. Our team will be prepared. Utah has given us an assurance of that.
-
P.S. This aint TCU your facing.
Your temper brings dishonor to my happy mooshu palace.
Texas 24 Bama 13
3/19/2009 - Dogus Balbay Made a Three-Pointer. Never Forget.
Everything you said above
is exactly why Saban has been so adamant about dialing down the whole “Bamas teh bestest evah” talk…
This is a team that was embarrassed by Utah last year….we returned a hell of a lot of players from the 08 squad. They know what it feels like to be told you’re the best and then get beat…nah..dominated..Dont expect anyone..including the water boys to over look one aspect of this Texas team. The media might be talking about how much better alabama is but i guarranDAMNtee not a single player on this team or the coaching staff is….
Ill be the first to say i have no clue what will happen. Picking the score of this game is like trying to pick the day and time of Jesus’ return…its impossible. If we win, then awesome..if we lose then i will not hold my head down…Losing to Texas is no where as embarrassing as losing to Utah..I do think we win but i have no clue how it will transpire. There are so many variables that can and will only be solved on the field…
Good luck to you horny texas fans ( see what i did there) YOu guys have been great the past month..ROLL TIDE!
"The goal is to be a champion," Saban said. "I didn’t say to win a championship. I just said be a champion. That’s our goal here. That’s what we want to do."- Nick Saban
Bama Vs Texas
Texas and Alabama both have great teams. I expect a good game tomorrow. But you idiots that seem to think they know exactly how the game will go down because of this stat or that are retarded. Or who is faster, bigger, or stronger or older or has more wins or Heisman blah blah blah etc. Did anyone in their right mind think Alabama would do what they did to Florida? I didn’t and I’m a Bama fan. Or wait what about the Texas Tech upset of UT last year? Did anyone see that coming? or that it took a last second field goal to beat Nebraska after McCoy (a mere kid in the grand scheme of things mind you) brain farted and almost lost it? Or USC beat by a team that didn’t win a game last year? Do I need to go on and on? Fact is you have no idea what is going to happen and if it does just so happen to turn out the way you said you’ll also be one of the retards saying “I told you so”. I don’t blame anyone for writing a post about what they think should happen but what it really boils down to is what you hope happens based upon some past performance. Roll Tide! I hope Alabama controls Texas the whole game grinds them down and then rushes for about 125 in the 4th and wins 10-0. That’d be fine by me. As to what is going to happen I haven’t a clue.
Agree completely
This game has been dissected down to the subatomic level and it’s been fun, I’ve learned a lot I didn’t know about Bama. But in the end it all boils down to execution and who wants it more.
I am ready for some football.
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Jan 6, 2010 6:58 PM CST up reply actions
Prediction
Bama – 29
Texas – 20
Lots of field goals
Lee Corso: How would you describe tailgating at Alabama?
Kirk Herbstreit: Barbecue and Ralph Lauren
My attempt at objectivity...
The defenses are a wash. Texas is great at passing and Bama is great at rushing. Bama has Javier Arenas and UT has DJ Monroe/Shipley. These are two great teamsand I believe that this will be a close game. The deciding factor in this game will be the QB position. I think its without argument that I can say that UT has the edge in the QB battle. Experience and skill level. Therefore I give the edge to UT.
Hook Em!
Vince Young >Tim Tebow.
Hey Peter
Do you know if Eddie Lacey qualified?
You play fast, you play strong, you go out there and dominate the guy you play against, and make his ass quit! That's our trademark, that's our MO as a team, aight, that's what people know us as! - Nick Saban, 2008
An inside joke that never gets old (on BON)
MATRIX: Bennett, I thought you were--
BENNETT: Dead? You thought wrong. Ever since you had me thrown out of the unit, I've been waiting to pay you back. Do you know what today is, Matrix? Payday.
28-17 Bama!
What you're seeing is team spirit. It's like the Holy Spirit, but more powerful.
-Hank Hill
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