Fascinating Stat of the Day

by Peter Bean on Nov 10, 2010 1:58 PM CST in Texas Longhorns Basketball

If only to get Giant Kiffins off the top of the damn page, I present to you this fascinating factoid I came across from the fabulous college hoops writer/statistician Ken Pomeroy, in a post titled "The Pre-Season AP Poll Is Great":

As things stand, the in-season polls are not very useful in this regard. During the season, the AP poll isn’t a ranking of the best teams at that moment. If you doubt me, here’s an example.

Tournament performance of AP #1 ranked team since 1990
                       Win  CH  F4  E8  S16  R2  R1
Preseason #1            6   10  12  14   16   20  21
Final #1                3   6   10  13   17   21  21
Six times the preseason #1 has won the national title compared to three for the top-ranked team at the end of the regular season. The preseason #1 has made it to the title game a total of 10 times compared to just six for the final #1. It’s stunning to me that armed with 25-30 games of additional information, the writers’ ability to identify the nation’s best team* gets worse!

It'd be interesting to look back at this on a season-by-season basis, in particular to look for commonalities among the teams ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll at the conclusion of the regular season. What, if anything, about the way they finished the year might have had an effect on their tournament performance?

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Great stat

That Kiffin was kind of big too.

I am trying to think back, but last years #1 Kansas went out in the second round, I am pretty sure the did not finish ranked #1 either. I am not sure if Duke was ever ranked #1 last season.

The year before that UNC started at #1, ended the season probably at #2 or 3.

Maybe writers are thinking about the best team in a tournement on day 1, but when the season comes to an end they just look at the best team over a season.

Kind of Tells you what is wrong with college football.

I may be just rambling, so I have no idea if my post made any sense.

Hook 'em

by blazzinken on Nov 10, 2010 2:04 PM CST reply actions

Thanks for bumping Kiffin down

The only pic I could think of that would be worse would have been Barry Switzer.

"You've got to think lucky. If you fall into a mudhole, check your back pocket - you might have caught a fish" -- Darrell Royal

by SpiritOfTheFedora on Nov 10, 2010 2:08 PM CST reply actions

But what does Kiffikins think?

post a pic with a thought bubble plz.

by the other Andrew on Nov 10, 2010 2:33 PM CST reply actions

Reporters are extremely reactionary.

For the preseason poll, the AP voters have weeks to examine benches, players, coaches, incoming recruits, and last season results to make an educated guess at the best team in the nation.

But once the season starts, they throw everything out the window and the votes swing wildly based on wins and losses and when those losses occur.

by CMDR on Nov 10, 2010 2:33 PM CST reply actions

I think the answer is in part of your post, PB

“the writers’ ability to identify the nation’s best team* gets worse!”

by edsp on Nov 10, 2010 4:02 PM CST up reply actions

Interesting

The final poll is a ranking based on resume, where the preseason poll is a ranking of overall team talent/perceived ability.
In a last man standing tournament ( particularly with just 1 day off before every other game), talent should prevail more than who had the better regular season, especially when considering regular season schedules aren’t balanced.

I wonder how many of those 3 from the final poll were also the preseason #1. Maybe UNC ’05, unless Illinois finished ranked higher.

by hayzer13 on Nov 10, 2010 2:37 PM CST reply actions