Identifying the Root Problem: What Muschamp Critics are Missing
When a team collapses as bad as the Texas Longhorns have this season, it is pretty easy to find things to criticize on all sides of the ball. This level of fail is simply not possible without a collective effort. That said, that is not the same as believing that all sides are equally responsible or that one side cannot be identified as the root problem. For the Horns, I think the root cause is pretty easy to see, and that is our woeful and pathetic offense. Nonetheless, I am continually surprised by how many Muschamp-haters and Greg Davis-defenders I run into. They say stuff like, "Muschamp can't complain because his defense sucks," "We are now seeing that Muschamp is overrated," "You guys drank too much of Muschamp's Kool-Aid," and the sarcastic, "All hail Will Muschamp!" when the defense gives up a score when the other team starts at our 40. I'm sorry, but I do not see the logic behind this. I am watching the same games as everyone else, from start to finish, and it is clear as day to me what the root cause for this season's destruction. I will argue this: Muschamp has every right to complain about the offense, because Muschamp has actually done a reasonably good, though not perfect, job this season given the circumstances.
Let me preface what I say with this: I really believed I made my peace with Greg Davis a few years ago: I knew the things he was good at, and I knew the things he wasn't good at, and that was enough since I knew Mack was unlikely to ever fire him. He still frustrated me often, but I was more inclined to give him some credit for the successes of Vince Young and Colt McCoy, against those who scoffed saying that a monkey could have been our OC in 2005 and Vince Young still would have done his thing. I am not, or at least was not, a Greg Davis hater. However, this season shook those beliefs to the core as the level of our offense's worthlessness has reached terrifying heights (lows?). I think now those heavy Greg Davis critics might have been right all along; Greg Davis doesn't need special playmakers to simply make a good offense. He needs those guys to make any offense.
I'm going to primarily use statistics in this post, although I'm not a big fan of relying too much on stats. However, stats can be very helpful in clarifying things we see on the field, correcting some misconceptions based on an often emotional viewing, and highlighting things we might have overlooked. To me, the stats have confirmed the general observation of Texas fans: Our defense isn't perfect, but as a friend of mine astutely texted to me, it is merely the fever stemming from the infection that is our awful offense.
Scoring Defense and Total Defense
Scipio Tex at Barking Carnival noted the wild statistical discrepancy between the Horns' total defense and scoring defense. I recommend you read the post, but if you don't want to take the time to I will simply summarize the basic point: Virtually all teams in the Top 10 of total defense, and the Texas Longhorns are one of them, are similarly highly ranked in scoring defense. Of the teams from the major conferences, Florida has the largest discrepancy besides the Longhorns, ranking #7 in total defense and #25 in scoring defense. That is nothing compared to Texas: The Horns rank #5 in total defense but are now ranked #52 in scoring defense, a whopping difference.
This kind of statistical outlier begs for an explanation, and I think Scipio Text does a great job explaining it in his post. Essentially, scoring defense isn't just a product of your defense (just as scoring offense isn't just the product of the offense). It is a total team metric, and the legendary failures of our offense and special teams this season have contributed to the Longhorns' low ranking. In contrast, while the Missouri Tigers have given up a lot of yards, they haven't shot themselves in the foot in other phases of the game and thus haven't given up a ton of points this season.
Out of curiosity, I went back and figured out the average starting yard line for every opponent scoring drive. This is not a perfect method, because this discounts drives where the defense gave up a lot of yards but didn't concede a score and also discounts drives where the other team started with good field position but still didn't score, but I think it gives us a fair idea of what the defense has been up against this season. For further clarification: I discounted "drives" that featured kneeling a half away, and when the defense got a stop and special teams extended the drive with either a penalty or a muffed punt, I counted the resulting starting yard line as a new drive. If the defense, however, extended a drive due to their own penalty on third down (think OU game), I still counted that as one drive, because that is still the defense's fault. At any rate, here's what I found (rounded).
Average starting yard line for opponent TD drive: Opponent 49
Average starting yard line for opponent FG drive: Opponent 41
This is not to say the defense hasn't given up any long drives, because they have, but that is a pretty depressing statistic. Opponents have only needed to travel half the length of the field to get a touchdown, on average, and they have needed less than that to get themselves into field goal range. This does not totally absolve our defense, as we, of course, would hope that they would give up far less touchdowns and force more field goals in such circumstances. Still, it is difficult to keep the opponent off the scoreboard when they get such advantageous field position.
I also charted our offense's scoring drives:
Average starting yard line for Texas TD drive: Texas 39
Average starting yard line for Texas FG drive: Texas 47
The starting yard line for our average touchdown drive isn't too telling, although that is still good field position, akin to the opponent kicking the ball out of bounds on a kickoff. The more telling stat here is our average starting position on our FG drives, and we've kicked A LOT of field goals (ranked #2 in the country; all hail Justin Tucker!). We aren't traveling very far at all, and sometimes we've started in field goal range and gone absolutely nowhere. Basically, we often settle for three when we should get six, and sometimes we even get zero, which this particular exercise does not cover.
The thrashing the Wildcats gave us on Saturday highlighted this problem. Every KSU touchdown drive traveled 38 yards, 54 yards, 10 yards, 14 yards, and 28 yards respectively, and their field goal drive traveled a grand total of -1 yards. They only gained 270 total yards, all of their output coming mostly from two players, and still put up 39 points, as our offense was shut out the entire game until a couple of pity touchdowns at the end. Even if our defense held on every one of those drives and forced field goals, does anyone really think our offense would have put up the points necessary to win this game?
Opponent Quality
But wait, it gets worse. The bad part about simply looking at raw totals for your team is that it fails to take into account the quality of opposition. When we look at that, it makes our offense look even more depressing.
Not all of the offenses we've faced are good ones, but we have seen some quality units. In terms of total offense, we've faced Baylor (#9), Oklahoma (#15), Nebraska (#20), and Texas Tech (#21). Counting rushing offense, which most of the teams tend to be good at, we've faced Nebraska (#6), Kansas State (#22), UCLA (#26), and Baylor (#29). And we still have to face Okie State. (from cfbstats.com)
Our offense? They've faced one good defense all year, and that was Nebraska's, ranked #23 in total defense. Next best one? Oklahoma, coming in at #68. The rest of our schedule is ranked in the 100s or close to the 100s. Good heavens. Despite this, we are ranked #65 in the nation in total offense.
That's not all, as it still gets worse. Football Outsiders keeps track of opponent-adjusted success rates and points-per-play, measurements of efficiency and explosiveness, respectively. Again, these are adjusted for the quality of the opponent. The Texas defense ranks #7 in the nation in S&P. The Texas offense? Ranked #102, behind such "little brother" Texas teams like UTEP and North Texas. In other words, the Longhorn offense has done far worse than what would be expected against some of the weakest defenses in college football.
Again, the K-State game was a prime example of this. This Kansas State team has one of the worst run defenses in all of college football, a defense that yielded open pastures for Nebraska to run through. Despite some promising runs from Whittaker and Gilbert, Greg Davis abandoned the run game early, contributing to the absurdity of throwing 60 times against a horrible run defense. The result? Zero points through three quarters, which would have also been true of the UCLA game had our offense not been given field goal position in the first half.
Conclusion
Our defense is flawed, and we knew some of the flaws going in. We knew we lacked a reliable 2nd defensive tackle and that we would miss Earl Thomas at safety. However, given these weaknesses, the defense has been by far our best unit on the field. The problem is that opposing offenses can attack these weaknesses with impunity because they don't have to fear a single thing from our offense. If you're gameplanning for Texas, you should be okay with run-run-run-punting, because eventually, you should be assured that a special teams or offensive error will give you the field position you want to score and that our defense will eventually cede a big play or two. Yes, the defense has looked like it's starting to quit, but I have a hard time blaming them when they are held to a widely different standard than the rest of our team.
As far as our offense is concerned, it may very well be the worst one in all of college football. I'm not exaggerating one bit. If it's not the worst, it's certainly the worst one with the least excuses. None of those teams ranked below us in either total offense or in the S&P ratings have the talent we do or the inherent program advantages of geography or location. If Fozzy Whittaker was playing for Nebraska or Baylor, he'd look like a world-beater. Here, he suffers from schematic failures and even when he runs well he is largely ignored. If D.J. Monroe was playing for Chip Kelly or Urban Meyer, he'd get the ball in places where he could showcase his speed and not be sidelined with ridiculous excuses of how he can't pass block. If Malcolm Williams was playing for Chris Peterson, he'd have NFL scouts drooling over him. I could go on and on. As bad as Gilbert has played, I don't heap too much blame on him because he has been largely set up to fail in this nonsensical system Greg Davis has put together. If we coupled our defense with, say, Missouri's offense, that Longhorn-Tiger team is undefeated. If we coupled our offense with the Pittsburgh Steelers' defense, we would still drag them down to the depths of suckiness.
I am not saying Muschamp is perfect and doesn't deserve criticism. I know some people accuse others at BON of putting Muschamp on a pedestal, but that is not the case at all. I am simply at a loss how someone could even hint that there is anywhere close to equal blame to go around here. The main culprit for our season's struggles is our offense, and our offensive coaches have turned in one of the worst coaching jobs I've ever seen. You can debate how much blame should be split between Greg Davis and Mack Brown, but it is clear that GD has turned a promising team in an overall weak year in college football into one of the bottom teams of the Big 12. Our offense didn't need to be that good for us to compete for a conference title this year; it just had to be average. It's not average or even bad, it's actively harmful to the entire team, and it has no shown signs of improvement. So yes, Will Muschamp has every right to be angry and frustrated. I don't think anything I've written is enlightening to the majority of Texas fans, but if you think otherwise, the forum is yours. I try to be an open-minded guy, so if I've misinterpreted these numbers or missed something, please explain how and why. The way I see it, while I am not in favor of Mack leaving, I think most of our offensive coaches need to lose their jobs and we need to pray that Muschamp doesn't leave this sinking ship for Georgia.
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Great stuff, TES - REC'd
The Scipio post was stellar stuff as well. While not statistically-driven, there are defensive concerns:
1. Muschamp’s continual stubborn use of both Gideon and Scott as the starting safeties. It’s not like he doesn’t have options; he could try out Adrian Phillips at one spot, or move Vaccaro off the nickel. Now that Chykie is done and Williams is banged-up, I’m guessing the latter isn’t an option. But there’s no reason why Phillips shouldn’t be given more of a chance. This one is particularly concerning, as both Scott and Gideon return next year.
2. The defense has pretty much thrown up their hands and quit at this point. I think there is some accountability (i.e., Eddie Jones getting benched for Dr. Johnson), but for the most part, I guess there’s just that added expectation that Muschamp’s D would pick up Davis’ O.
On the Davis vs. Muschamp debate, the boys over at Recruitocosm have some great posts.
I don't always watch football, but when I do, I prefer Dos Achos. Stay thirsty, my friends.
My only real problem with Muschamp has been this
1. Muschamp’s continual stubborn use of both Gideon and Scott as the starting safeties.
Between the two of them I can recall at least 5 or 6 “explosive” td plays that are squarely on one or both completely blowing a play.
This has to contribute (to some extent) to the overall unit’s apparent decline in effort as the season has gone on. Gideon’s playing time seems to be inversely correlated to on field performance and Scott hasn’t been much better.
If Muschamp is sitting E. Jones on grounds of accountability, what is the justification for the safeties playing virtually every snap of every game? More often than not, Gideon/Scott are the culprits on the rare occasions that the offense and special teams do not conspire against the defense.
I have far less insider access than many around here, but my fear is that the malaise of this season, and things like Gideon/Scott, will make Muschamp seem more like “one of the coaches” than “Coach Boom” to the players.
"It's not that the Irish are cynical. It's rather that they have a wonderful lack of respect for everything and everybody."
-- Brendan Behan --
by Zeno of Citium on Nov 9, 2010 11:19 AM CST up reply actions
It's hard to believe that Gideon is our only best option at safety.
I really do have a hard time believe it. The Boom apologist in me wants to think that Mack is making him play Gideon as part of his ‘we play good senior kids’ strategy, or as a recruiting outreach to high school coaches. But I think that’s likely not true.
Maddening.
Coach Boom will be the next head coach at Texas
Texas will not let him leave, or at least they will pull every string in order to keep him here. Ultimately Boom has the last say, but Texas is one of the top 3 or 4 universities to coach at, Boom knows this, and that is why he is going to stay.
Shadow, great work, you put into words what many of us truly believe. For this defense to still be ranked in the top ten highlights the work and ability of Coach Boom, we should be grateful to have him.
This Defense.........
has been forced to play from behind which is not thier forte.
Turnovers have given the opposition a short field to work with.
GDGD sucks and Mack can’t cover it up as in the past.
If Mack is so vain as to keep this dummy on I have made my last trip to DKR untill he is gone.I know there will be some other orange fanatic to take my place.I have been in a half empty memorial stadium watching dumb Aggies dancing on the Longhorn emblem on the 50 having to restrain myself from going after them.We may be back there in a few weeks if Mack can’t somehow get this team back.
I heard he got out his $20 bill again for Gilbert to throw on the floor.this time it was intercepted.
A lot of season ticket holders share your sentiment, myself included
and probably a majority of those who donated $40M or whatever it was last year. If they don’t make a change it will severely affect that fat money roll DeLoss Dodds is carrying around right now.
Count on the change being made.
"You've got to think lucky. If you fall into a mudhole, check your back pocket - you might have caught a fish" -- Darrell Royal
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Nov 9, 2010 11:31 AM CST up reply actions
tremendous post
great job. amazing that the longhorns could field what is literally one of the worst offenses in the country, just stunning proof that greg davis has magical powers. great points made all around and i would agree with jc25 above that gideon should not be on the field anymore (and i would add chykie too, although that is now a non issue) and that is on muschamp.
Before the season started,
"Only angry people win football games." --DKR
To be contrarian
Could one of the reasons the defense has given up so few yards and yard per play be because they are defending a short field every time?
Other Receiving Votes: Oklahoma
by pleaseplaykindle on Nov 9, 2010 9:53 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
That's a fair point
However, I really don’t think I’ve seen anyone really pile on against Muschamp. Many, including me, have said that he shouldn’t be put on a pedestal and considered beyond reproach, and I continue to believe that. I don’t think anyone has really earned a place on a pedestal, in fact. I do hold Muschamp in high regard, but characterizing the man with hyperbolic imperatives is only appropriate when doing so in jest. He’s darn good, and looks like a good HCIW, but I don’t think it makes sense to write him off because of perceived struggles this season. Similarly, I’m somewhat surprised to see so many people roll over on Mack Brown this season. I guess sometimes it’s just the direction the breeze is blowing.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 9, 2010 9:59 AM CST up reply actions
That's a fair observation, but I don't think so
I had also went through and averaged out the starting position of every single relevant drive the defense has faced this season, and it comes out to the 32 yard line, just a yard over the average of the 31 yard line (at least, according to Football Outsiders). Also, while the defense has given up a few 70+ yard drives, the vast majority of touchdown drives start with pretty good field position against them. Taken together, it seems to support the conclusion that when the other team scores, they by and large do so with good field position rather than via sustained success drive after drive.
by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 9, 2010 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
This is exactly right
This echoes my earlier comments, but nobody seemed to catch it at the time…
And on top of it, they should be holding teams to field goals. There’s just too much talent over there to be getting scored on like this. Very surprising. I haven’t seen the stats, but I’d like to know what the opponents % of touchdowns when they get inside our 30 yard line.
I think it all comes down to nobody on the team having any confidence in the offense.
How many of our losses did the opponent score first?
You're gonna strongly agree with some of what I say, and you'll strongly disagree with some of what I say. Either way, I don't give a d@#n. I'm just here to talk sports.
Let's try that again, Before the season started,
didn’t Mack announce that this may be the best defense ever at UT? With that build up, maybe that is why Muschamp has come in for criticism when we again and again see the defense give up big plays and long drives and fail to produce turn-overs. How many dumb penalties have we had on defense? How many interceptions or fumbles recovered,? Yes, we have a miserable offense, but I think it is unfair to blame all the defensive woes on GD and the offense.
"Only angry people win football games." --DKR
It's definitely unfair to blame it all on GD, or even on the offense in general
I think there’s enough blame on all three sides of the ball (if ST can be considered a side) that criticism is justified. However, most seem to heap it all on one person, and that’s pretty unfair. The second-largest group seems to heap it on that one person as well as his boss. Others heap it on Gilbert. Almost no one blames Muschamp, and that’s unfair, because he’s made some mistakes as well, and his players have been quite unprepared at times.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 9, 2010 10:03 AM CST up reply actions
Honest question
Have you seen any of our losses that you would put on the Defense more than the Offense? I absolutely hate GD, but I’ll give him more credit for the Nebraska victory, because holy shit he came out with a game plan. In our losses however, I see more blame falling on both the Offense and special teams. We should be scoring so many more points against these half assed defenses and we should be giving our offense some field position to work with.
Not really
I generally blame the offense more than the defense for the losses, although Iowa State might be the exception. But I will say that although coordinators and the head coach do ultimately bear responsibility for the performance of the team and their respective units, I do not blame just the OC for offensive failures, or just the DC for defensive failures. There are positional and individual player failures that have torpedoed this season as well.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 9, 2010 10:36 AM CST up reply actions
I point to one main mantra every time
When you outrush your opponent you win the game over 95% of the time. When you don’t, it’s 50-50. Mack and GD both know this. Most of the people here don’t really pay much attention when I say this but it is tried and true over a long time span. I attribute 75% of our issues to lack of an OL and RB’s, basically poor talent evaluation at those positions. I won’t name names because it’s not fair to the players but MacWhorter and GD both bear primary responsibility for this failure in the most basic aspect of the game, running the football.
Then on top of it you get a WR who gets flagged for blocking on a pass play. Enough is enough.
"You've got to think lucky. If you fall into a mudhole, check your back pocket - you might have caught a fish" -- Darrell Royal
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Nov 9, 2010 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
... run blocking on a pass play, that is...n/t
"You've got to think lucky. If you fall into a mudhole, check your back pocket - you might have caught a fish" -- Darrell Royal
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Nov 9, 2010 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
You think it's been poor talent evaluation?
I really don’t think it’s been talent evaluation so much as it’s been player development, in the case of both OL and RBs. I really think Fozzy Whitaker, Vondrell McGee, etc. were much more talented running backs in high school than, say, Kendall Hunter, but Hunter has developed into a much better running back at the collegiate level. To me, that points to really poor positional coaching.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 9, 2010 11:44 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
+1
Days late, but I apprecieate the lack of player development comment. Not only what a supposedly sub-Texas staff has converted Hunter into (not to mention the 25 Woods brothers that seemed to be there), but the apparently terrible job that has been done with Whaley. If the kid has gotten fat/lazy/slow then fix it. You’re the one that gave him the scholarship! I know nobody on here is in favor of personal player call outs, but they’re all about my age so I think I can throw it at em. This is more of a criticism of the staff than the player, if that means anything.
do you put that on Major?
"I'm not playing favorites. All my favorites have graduated." - A. Lemons
by Paleface Horn on Nov 12, 2010 8:07 AM CST up reply actions
Holding Nebraska to 6 points in Lincoln
until garbage time is, by a wide margin, the best performance either of our units has had all year. The offense did almost nothing after the first quarter. That one’s not even close.
I'm about to defend GD, God help me
Giving him the benefit of the doubt, we “managed” the rest of the game. It felt like vinegar typing that, fwiw. F-me, I hate myself at the moment.
Managing the game is fine
although I dislike that Davis felt he had to resort to his conservative mindset once we’d established a lead; to my thinking it merely reinforces his habits, which, as we have seen, can lead to disaster.
Regardless, the point I was making was that even in Davis’ best moment this season, he was outcoached by Muschamp. The defense didn’t merely manage the game, they dominated it.
On a thread that implies the two coaches are judged by different standards, I contend that they are judged by different standards, which is to say that Davis is judged too lightly, and Muschamp too harshly.
by BrooklynHorn on Nov 11, 2010 6:51 PM CST up reply actions
Glad to be wrong
GD is undefendable, if thats a word. I can sleep in peace at night.
aren't stats for losers?
Maybe our offense sucks because our defense never creates turnovers and gives them a short field (so they can then go kick FGs). obviously rhetorical. our offense sucks no matter the situation.
All three phases of the game suck and to try to paint one turd prettier than the others is a fruitless endeavor.
by the other Andrew on Nov 9, 2010 10:02 AM CST reply actions
Our offense sucks because we can't run the football
or won’t try as was the case last week when we had a chance against the #102 rushing defense in the country.
"You've got to think lucky. If you fall into a mudhole, check your back pocket - you might have caught a fish" -- Darrell Royal
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Nov 9, 2010 11:18 AM CST up reply actions
We haven't been able to run the ball for years
Think about the last 3 legitimate running threats that have played at the University of Texas. Colt McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and Vince Young. All three specialized it making something out of nothing. Colt and Vince became successful once they realized it was completely on them to turn the plays that GD was telling them to run into actual production, and Jamaal never benefited from great blocking; most of his big runs and yards came from being so fast that he could simply get around the blocking and turn the corner without being caught. Those of us who can recognize good offensive scheme and execution have known for years that GD wasn’t doing anything to help move the ball, and now that he doesn’t have the players to bail his ass out, we are left with, as stated above, maybe the worst offense in college football. If GD doesn’t leave, then Mack has to.
If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!
The Texas offense, with the exception of the O-line, is Lance Armstrong,
and Greg Davis is the infected boil on his ass.
Greg Davis isn’t getting too much blame. He can’t scheme, he can’t attack the weakness of the defense, he can’t adjust, and he needs to go.
The sad thing is that the guy seems to be so intensely knowledgeable about football. The coaching and playcalling has been so consistently counterintuitive that an objective observer would almost have to conclude that he was somehow a spy, an OU plant, paid off to drive a season into the dirt and a fanbase into baldness.
That is obviously an extreme example and certainly not the case, but the fact remains that GDGD spent the entire offseason developing the run, then once down two scores or so with more than a half to go against one of the poorest run defenses in the country, completely abandoned that part of offensive football, and then continued to pass even as the opponent sold out on pass protection every play. This, to varying extents, has happened the last eleven times that Texas has taken the field.
Just saying. If you went to a high school statistics class and presented the hypothesis “GDGD wants to score points and win football games for UT” and told them to gather up the data from this year, the variance from your expected results, really no matter if you set it up play by play or game by game, would lead you to conclude that the hypothesis was false. He has been THAT BAD. One of the epic failures in coaching that has ever transprited- much worse even than Wade Phillips, turned out on the street yesterday unceremoniously after himself managing to perform so far below expectations as to defy logical explanation.
by Tackchevy on Nov 9, 2010 10:33 AM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Agreed
As I was writing can’t all those times my inner dialogue went like this…
“Shouldn’t that be won’t?”
“That’s crazy to insinuate he can do something and just won’t when he’s getting paid a huge salary to do it.
“Crazier than thinking he can’t even though he’s known for being a scholar of the game?”
“Aw, hell, I’m giving up trying to apply logic to this.”
I really, really want to remember this season. I’m afraid that it will fade away quickly, like any other bad experience that gets subconsciously blocked after just a little while.
Last year, I remember joking that a nice win hardly felt like anything anymore, because it was just so standard and expected. And it did; beating OU in 2008 was the last time that I really felt exultant about our team.
Hopefully this year, hell- hopefully this coming Saturday- will be a turning point for the team, and we’ll all be in for another couple of years or a decade of solid ball. Whenever it does happen, damn am I going to enjoy it all again.
Such seasons don't die easily, Tackchevy.
I seen many and even the remnant memories come back to haunt you. When things are going great, ever so often there will be a play or series of plays and suddenly a cool chill from the past will mist your vision because you’ve seen it – and felt it – before and hope that it is just a reminder, not a new epoch upon you.
From the back-eddy mid-’60s there was a TCU game at home where Texas had only two plays, both long runs by Chris Gilbert, one for 96-yards (still the record) but those were only two plays of the whole day and the Horns lost, 24-17, one of many in those three years. Great D, bad O.
Remember in the mid-70s when OU had the wishbone revved up to levels Texas never reached, and I found myself gazing in wonder at the speed and efficiency, only to realize we were getting slaughtered and would continue to do so until we matched their team speed and skills.
In the mid and late ’80s watching teams like Baylor whip us like ragdolls and the early 90s with the aggies making what offense we had look totally pathetic. It seemed like we could only put half a team on the field, one unit stronger, one much more flawed and doomed to failure.
Now I see this season. One side valiantly trying to staunch the bleeding despite shortcomings of their own at DL and safety, while the other quite possibly the most pathetic offense in modern Texas history…and that’s saying one hell of a lot. The psychology of the whole team goes into the dumpster after a while with the all-consuming emotional tsunami.
At least the defense gets to take it out on somebody, to vent their anger, they get to hit and hit and hit…but the offense just becomes a scabbed-over wound reopened every game.
Well, until I read that ...
… I didn’t think I could feel any worse about Longhorn football. Thanks so much.
You made a lot of investment and that's ok; most of us have.
What you eventually discover is who on this team really wants to play football. It is an endurance sport. in the playing and sustaining with each level, and no one ever said that didn’t extend to the fans who pay serious attention to a team.
If there is any secret, it is that the highs generally exceed the lows and can be extremely powerful if not intoxicating. On this one, however, we just fell off the cliff. And we may still be falling.
Cheers.
Wise words, sir. My history as a longhorn only goes back 15 years and of those only the last ten have been full blown serious. I never got to experience some of the mayhem you’re talking about there, sadly. Every game this year just has a special feel to it though, especially bad, I mean. You could just tell we were in for a treat when we got stoned on the goalline by Rice our first possession of the season. Thanks again for your perspective.
by Tackchevy on Nov 9, 2010 6:31 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
You're welcome, Tackchevy .
We know some day they’ll show up. We just keep wanting it to be this Saturday.
After the Rice game,
I told one of my friend that we were going to lose 5 games this year. He disagreed with me. It looks like we were both wrong.
"I'm not playing favorites. All my favorites have graduated." - A. Lemons
by Paleface Horn on Nov 10, 2010 5:24 AM CST up reply actions
Great post
It’s easy to dismiss the defense when the other team gets a really big offensive play, but taking another look and seeing how special teams, etc., affect it is really eye-opening. I think part of the problem is expectations – based on Mack’s comments we were expecting a defense comparable to last year’s, and that hasn’t played out.
Never ask a man if he's from Texas. If he is, he'll tell you soon enough. If he's not, don't embarrass him.
Great post
I’d only add that Football Outsider’s FEI numbers back up your point as well. FEI is an evaluation of efficiency by possession and takes into account starting field position. Note: these numbers do not include this past weekend of football… I would expect all of them to go down.
Overall DFEI Rank = 18
First Down Rate: a first down is allowed in 49.5% of opponent drives (Rank = 1)
Available Yardage: 30.6% of Available Yardage is allowed (Rank = 4)
Explosive Drives: 9.3% of opponent possessions average 10 yd/play (Rank = 34)
Methodical Drives: 12.4% of opponent possessions result in 10 plays or more (Rank = 50)
Overall OFEI Rank = 90
A first down is gained in 66.7% of drives (Rank = 61)
44.4% of Available Yardage is gained (Rank = 55)
7.3% of possessions average 10 yd/play (Rank = 100)
12.4% of possessions result in 10 plays or more (Rank = 85)
by gwh65 on Nov 9, 2010 10:55 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
Thanks
I thought about including them but I felt the post would get too long, and overall it didn’t really change the point. The offense stinks to high heaven.
by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 9, 2010 11:06 AM CST up reply actions
More Bad Numbers...
We’re all aware that our already gruesome stats are padded by garbage time scores against prevent defenses. In particular the 4th quarter TDs against UCLA, KSU, and to a lesser extent ISU had no effect on the outcome. On the season we’ve scored 201 points and 20 touchdowns, meaning these account for:
-34 points (17% of our season total)
-5 TDs (25% of our season total)
That’s right, a full quarter of our touchdowns this year have been scored because the other team let us/
by the chairman211 on Nov 9, 2010 11:09 AM CST reply actions
We’ve scored 1/4 of our TD’s in the 4th quarter; from a purely statistical perspective just what one would expect. Not sure how this supports your garbage time theory (and the 4th quarter points % even less so). Are you sure these numbers are correct? I seem to recall four 4th quarter TD’s against ISU and KSU alone…
We scored 4th quarter TDs against UCLA (down 21), ISU (down 22 and down 14), and KSU (down 39 and down 32). All of these were against defenses that were running out the clock as they had no chance of losing (though ISU let it get close). Those 5 TDs, which were essentially worthless, account for 25% of the TDs we’ve scored this season.
by the chairman211 on Nov 9, 2010 4:09 PM CST up reply actions
Yet more stats to back up the thesis
I’ve done a little analysis on all opponents scores. Season-to-date, the contributing factors in opponent scores break down like this:
Total Number of Opponent Scores: 34
% scores off offensive turnovers: 20.59%
% scores off punt return turnovers: 5.88%
% scores off short field: 32.35%
% scores off drive-extending penalties: 14.71%
I define “short field” as an opponent starting a drive at the Texas 40 yard line or closer, which means they’re already close to field goal range and a score of some kind of almost guaranteed. I define a “drive-extending penalty” as a penalty on the Texas defense that resulted in a new 1st down for the opponent, extending a drive which ultimately resulted in a score. The numbers don’t add up to 100% because there are other contributing factors that can lead to an opponent score, and because some of the categories overlap (for instance, an offensive turnover can also result in short field for the opponent).
Here’s the real kicker stat though:
% scores “not on the defense”: 38.24%
I define “not on the defense” as an opponent score that occurred either when the defense was not on the field (e.g. a pick-6) or when the opponent started with short field as I defined it above.
38%!
by dumeril7 on Nov 9, 2010 11:44 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
oh, one other definition...
When I say a score “off an offensive turnover” I mean that the Texas offense turned over the ball, leading to an opponent drive which ultimately resulted in an opponent score. Ditto with scores “off punt return turnovers”…
But you forgot one important thing
J’Covan to Hamilton in the 2nd half last night was a thing of beauty. I’m moving on. You guys figure this out and let me know once resolved. NC2A basketball season has started and I for one am so thankful for the diversion.
by TXStampede on Nov 9, 2010 11:55 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Great stuff
I like your take that Muschamp and the D at least deserve some blame. I love Scipio and a lot of BC’s writers, but I’m tired of hearing about how Muschamp is perfect and every one of his flaws is the offense’s fault. That’s just…irresponsible.
Amen, brother
Every coach on this team deserves criticism. No one is above reproach. Even Muschamp. Iowa St., UCLA, and now Kansas St. were all one-dimensional run teams that ate up our defense. So take Muschamp off the pedestal and get in back down here so he can start to fix this defense.
It's fun to do bad things. -Latarian Milton
by TexasGarcia37 on Nov 9, 2010 1:01 PM CST up reply actions
I have a different perspective
I think they have criticized the defensive side of the ball to the extent TES has. The tone at Barking Carnival is not as moderate as BON per se, but we are all saying/hearing the same things. Their rants are no different than anywhere else (except maybe Orangebloods, who mostly are in the tank for all things Belmont). BON has a tendency to play along acoustically when others are prone to the amplified methods. It’s just a style issue, not substance.
Greg Davis fan-discontent is now at 11
BON has a tendency to play along acoustically when others are prone to the amplified methods.
on a scale of 1 to 10
If we coupled our defense with, say, Missouri’s offense, that Longhorn-Tiger team is undefeated. If we coupled our offense with the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense, we would still drag them down to the depths of suckiness.
This is my diagnosis exactly. I won’t even preface my comments with the obligatory “the defense certainly isn’t perfect” because the defense doesn’t need to be perfect. If our defense were paired with any number of offenses out there, certainly Auburn or Oregon’s, but even Michigan’s, TCU’s, or as you say, Missouri’s, then this defense would not at all serve as such a weakness as to prevent us from playing National-Title-caliber football. In fact, with a decent offense, I expect that this year’s defense may be putting up such numbers that they might rank in the top 3 or 4 of Mack’s tenure.
As far as our offense is concerned, it may very well be the worst one in all of college football. I’m not exaggerating one bit. If it’s not the worst, it’s certainly the worst one with the least excuses.
Sweet Zombie Jesus, thank you for saying this. I am ever so tired of this notion that we exaggerate Greg Davis’ ineptitude, as if he is simply "not elite’ or “just average,” when the reality is that he is one of the worst OC’s in college football.
by BrooklynHorn on Nov 9, 2010 2:22 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Would you mind answering my question in the other thread?
You called him an idiot in there, and you’re calling him one of the worst OC’s in college football here. This flies in the face of what has transpired offensively at Texas the past decade.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 9, 2010 2:57 PM CST up reply actions
As a follow up, I'd like to emphasize:
I appreciate having the civil conversation about it. It’s not that I think Davis hasn’t failed this year (granted, I think Gilbert and Mac are as deserving of blame), because he obviously has. But I think it’s really hyperbolic to say that he’s an idiot or one of the worst in CFB.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Nov 9, 2010 3:03 PM CST up reply actions
Angry people tend toward hyperbole.
Did you miss my metaphor comparing Greg Davis to an infected boil on the team’s ass? I was holding back. I’m angry because Davis knows the game, he had to get the job, and he is capable of doing what we need him to do. The fact of the matter is that he’s just not doing it. I employ smart and capable people who tend to fall short of their potential because they are just too damn self-satisfied to motivate themselves to work hard to reach their potential and it’s infuriating as all hell. That’s what’s so infuriating about Davis.
I see no inconsistency
in calling Davis completely inept and Texas’ offensive output this decade.
We often hear the somewhat oversimplified mantra, “our talent bails hims out,” which, at face value seems implausible. But a nuanced look at the matter gives the argument something of a credibility, which, in combination with other minor factors completes the picture satisfactorily for my investigations.
Bear with me:
First, some personal observations. There have been only two seasons in which Davis’ sense of offensive staccato hasn’t handcuffed the team and wreaked havoc with our offensive identity: 1998 and 2005. THese are the two seasons I remember in which our identity developed early and remained consistent. Both seasons saw an alarming amount of delegation to one star, Heisman-caliber player, with the expectation that the offense would be carried by his spectacular play-making (or in RW’s case, his inhuman consistency). Those are the only two seasons in which I can remember watching Texas football and not constantly sensing that the offense looked flustered, confused, out of rhythm and with no killer instinct. Nonrhythmic staleness has permeated every offense Texas has run otherwise, even in seasons in which we’ve compiled a ton of statistics.
My argument (as per statistics):
Davis seems to believe statistics are the only thing that matters, and he fosters gameplans that are designed to meet quantitative standards assuming that statistical correlations with victory are the same as direct correlations. He’s wrong. This season is proving he’s wrong. Our offense actually still puts up decent numbers, even when we lose by several touchdowns.
The problem has been that this flaw in his philosophy hasn’t been exposed because of (you guessed it), our ability to recruit playmakers and our talent-gap regarding our opponents. But stay with me anyway…
To illustrate this, look at Davis’ inability to fix the running game. This has been on the offseason agenda longer than people remember. I hear nostalgia for the Jamaal Charles running scheme, but that scheme was broken too. If I recall correctly, Jamaal was stuffed on the vast majority of his carries for little or no gain, but would break one or two big ones per game, inflating his statistics and BARELY allowing the offense to function in 07. Still, Charles got his numbers in the end (or close to them), and Davis assumed his approach, and his numeric correlations were sound.
2010 sees perhaps the first Mack Brown team without a serious playmaker, and this is exposing the flaws in Davis’ gameplanning. As the OP notes, creative offensive coordinators around the country, at smaller schools, have to work with (at best) this kind of talent all the time, and they seem to be able to establish more consistency, and against better defenses. So I ask you, what would Davis’ record look like if he’d been OC at Kansas or East Carolina this past decade? Would anyone have noticed him? You yourself have noted that there is a talent disappointment this season, but surely you must admit that even this squad is more talented than Tulsa, Tech, Baylor, or any number of teams putting up better performances. Our talent lull is relative to our standards, not the standards of the typical NCAA football team.
I find it difficult to believe there is no correlation between the [relatively small] dip in talent, and the exposing of Davis’ flaws. Many of us have seen this coming for a decade (trying not to sound condescending), but maddeningly, people keep pointing to the numbers to defend the guy, which is really his problem in the first place. He gets his numbers, but his offenses are not good. There is a difference between scheming to achieve certain statistics, and scheming to win. Davis believes one leads necessarily to the other, and he appropriately acquires the numbers, which, in many cases is [incidentally, and unfortunately] enough to allow him to perpetuate his system because we have just enough talent and playmakers that if he achieves those numbers, the correlation with victory remains intact most of the time.
But note that Davis’ defenders point almost exclusively at numbers. This debate is always the same. The fanbase looks at the field, sees the offense struggling the majority of the time, sees no sense of creativity, sees no well-timed playcalling, no offensive identity, no fire at all from that side of the ball, and then the Davis apologists points at statistics. Well, again, even this season, we’re out-gaining our opponents. So what do those statistics mean? I never hear anyone defend Davis by invoking some stunning call or gameplan we can all remember. Just numbers. Its maddening.
It is completely reasonable to assert that, were Davis stuck with this talent level (2010 Texas) on a consistent basis, that he may have failed entirely as an offensive coach.
by BrooklynHorn on Nov 9, 2010 5:01 PM CST up reply actions 8 recs
The most infuriating aspect is...
that there have been bright spots where he shows he actually does dissect what the other team’s defense does and attack it strategically. Cases in point: OU 2008 and to a lesser extent, but still noteworthy, Nebraska this season. It almost makes me mad to see him call a good game because I can’t comprehend why he calls such diametrically opposed games most of the time.
We didn't have a well-oiled machine in either win, actually
We beat OU partly because Bradford got injured in the 1st quarter (first or second drive, was it). One of our TDs came from a Shipley kickoff return. It was a close game until the end, actually.
Nebraska’s WRs dropped 9 passes, at least a couple of which could’ve been TDs.
I’d call our gameplan smart if the running had been done by a RB, instead of GG scrambling awkwardly, with the risk of getting hurt… and remember that it was often to the outside, unfortunately, rather than through any nice lanes opened via schematic blocking by an o-line.
How does our OC watch tape of Iowa State getting blown out by OU 52-0 and then come up with a gameplan which scores only 6 points through 3 quarters?!?
Actually,
it was the OU game last year (as in ’09) that Bradford got hurt. In ’08 their star middle linebacker Ryan Reynolds got hurt, after which GD started attacking the middle of their defense and we started scoring at will.
As for my inclusion of the Nebraska game this year, their were designed runs for GG and the fact that we limited the passing game and used some creativity to get some rushing yards was a good plan for the Nebraska defense. It was possibly the only game that displayed any offensive gameplanning this whole season.
Sometimes I defend GD, sometimes I don't.
That’s because I don’t agree with everything he does. He has his good and his bad. Just like everybody. I don’t think there’s a single person out there that can come in and call games where we agree with everything they do.
So what do I look at and point to when I decide to defend GD? NOT NUMBERS.
I look at WINS.
How about this. Tell me who can come in here and win more games. Tell me why he can do it and how he’s gonna do it. Tell me who is going to be able to match the talent we have on the team and currently committed to be able to win immediately. Tell me who can get high school stars to line up at the door to play for Texas. Tell me who can get GG to stop throwing interceptions. Who can turn Gilbert into a leader? People have so many questions, but what are the answers? Do you? Does anyone in here? If so, speak up. You know better than anyone right? Make me a believer.
You're gonna strongly agree with some of what I say, and you'll strongly disagree with some of what I say. Either way, I don't give a d@#n. I'm just here to talk sports.
Are you talking about HC or OC?
If you’re talking OC, I literally think (at least) 95% of the offensive coordinators in the country, and some of the defensive ones. Not trying to sound pretentious at all; that’s just how bad I think Davis is and how many people could do the job equally as well. I think we could both agree that literally nobody in college football could have done a worse job this season. I don’t really know HOW he could have done a worse job, which is, in itself, a mind boggling statement.
by GoHornsGo90 on Nov 10, 2010 11:35 AM CST up reply actions
I'm talking about OC
Nobody on this board is gonna convince me that Mack needs to go. So that’s like trying to hit on Elizabeth Banks, (yes, that’s a link) it’s just not gonna happen.
You’re not telling me how any of these “95%” of OC’s can actually come in and win more games. You’re kinda just spitting out stuff with nothing to back it up. Just saying 95% of OC’s can do better isn’t gonna make me a believer because frankly I think that’s ridiculous. Especially since, you know, nobody else HAS, except GD
You're gonna strongly agree with some of what I say, and you'll strongly disagree with some of what I say. Either way, I don't give a d@#n. I'm just here to talk sports.
if GD is so good..
…why does he not get a HC job? He wins so much (as you put it) that any college would want to replicate that at their school if he was the reason behind it. If you look around the country, nearly all the successful coordinators get opportunities at a better paying job. I can understand him turning down a lowly school, but he doesn’t even get considered for these opportunities.
by vy til i die on Nov 11, 2010 1:33 AM CST up reply actions
Worse, to me, than UT's offense ...
… has been UT’s punt returning. I’ve never in all my life seen so many punts dropped or caught-then-fumbled. I knew going into the season that the loss of Jordan Shipley as punt returner would be the #3 problem for UT (behind the loss of either #12) but I had no idea that those returner(s) would be so bad at catching the ball. It’s cost them atleast one win, probably more.
With All Due Respect
You don´t need statistics to see that this defense is not up to Will´s standards. He is still a bright, charasmatic coach – but these guys are not playing up to their potential either. First of all, a big part of their problem is stupid defensive penalties that will directly skew those statistics. Secondly, we are so far behind in the second half that we get some benefit from the offense calling off the dogs. Third, their tackling has not been up to the usual standard and they are giving up big plays in the run game. Does Will suck – obviously not. Is his defense playing well this year – no. Is it worse than the offense? Yes – but isn´t that like being the world´s tallest midget?
Note to Bill Byrne "Because you aren´t Texas and you´ll never be Texas"
Those are all legit criticisms
The point of the post, again, was not to deflect blame from Muschamp’s unit, but to show what the root cause of our team’s implosion. Put it this way: If we replaced our defense with any of the other top defenses in college football, how much different do you think this Horns’ team is? Now let’s replace our offense with just an average offense. How much different is it? I would disagree strongly that the defense is the “tallest midget.” Maybe it’s not a pure giant like we wanted, but the difference between it and the offense is vast.
by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 9, 2010 8:59 PM CST up reply actions
Not buying
Nice article and I understand your points. But blaming it on the offense is lame if you ask me. Plain and simple, we are giving up too many big plays.
Muschamp needs to be held accountable especially since this was supposed to be the best defense of the Mack era.
IMHO we need a different QB and a new D coordinator.
Start McCoy, promote Akina to acting D coordinator, see if the result is different.
Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. At this point, Mack is quite insane.
This is a tangent, but the 2007 defense was worse
But many won’t remember that because the offense was able to (barely) outscore Central Florida.
In any case, I still don’t see an argument for replacing a defensive coordinator with two successful seasons and one troubling one with a defensive coordinator who only produced a single, troubling season.
Muschamp doesn’t walk on water, no one (rational) is suggesting that, but it seems you want him gone because you want somebody fired – regardless of root causes.
proud to swim home
In fairness,
it was Mack the Prophet that said the defense would be the best ever, not Muschamp. I don’t Muschamp would ever say such entitlement, arrogance engendering things as that.
Number 7 in total defense is not any good?
by HookTech on Nov 9, 2010 8:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Not when
Every scoring drive is only 35 yards. They started the season well against a bunch of terrible teams, but let’s not forget that while the scoring defense numbers are inflated due to a short field, the total defense numbers are deflated due to the exact same reason. You have to consider both sides.
by GoHornsGo90 on Nov 10, 2010 11:37 AM CST up reply actions
It's good to see more and more people see this little detail
Wish people would have acknowledged it a couple weeks ago when I first pointed it out… Better late than never
You're gonna strongly agree with some of what I say, and you'll strongly disagree with some of what I say. Either way, I don't give a d@#n. I'm just here to talk sports.
I'm not sure that's correct.
If the other team consistently, or at least frequently has a shorter field, doesn’t that increase the likelihood that they will also have more possessions in which to gain yards? I don’t have stats, just talkin’ logic.
"I'm not playing favorites. All my favorites have graduated." - A. Lemons
by Paleface Horn on Nov 10, 2010 5:50 PM CST up reply actions
And doesn't the fact that the opponent is turning the ball over
also add time of possession for racking up more yards?
"I'm not playing favorites. All my favorites have graduated." - A. Lemons
by Paleface Horn on Nov 10, 2010 5:51 PM CST up reply actions
I won't argue that their isn't validity to your point,
but I will say that even taking that into consideration, it’s going to far to say our defense isn’t any good. They’ve had their ups and downs, and I’m not going to blame any of the downs on the offense although I think their is at least a little bit of rationality to that argument. I wouldn’t have any problem with someone saying our defense isn’t great. They’re not great, but they’re pretty good. They can be great after some graduation and maturation.
Haha
I think about this all the time. It’s funny because I swear 95% of people genuinely believe that is the true definition. If you look up the actual definition, as expected, they have nothing in common.
by GoHornsGo90 on Nov 10, 2010 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
This is the problem I have with a lot of Muschamp critics
Muschamp needs to be held accountable especially since this was supposed to be the best defense of the Mack era.
As stated by another poster, this was said by Mack Brown and not Muschamp, and it has obviously created false expectations of this defense. Furthermore, Mack Brown said it had the “potential” to be his best defense, not that it was already his best defense. Because of a lot of fans’ latching onto this, every one of the defense’s mistakes are magnified, while the offense gets a high five for getting a few first downs.
I am shocked you want a new DC, and even more so that you listed Akina as the candidate. Akina is a very good DB’s coach, but in 2007 he and MacDuff fielded the worst defense in Mack Brown’s era. That, I’m sorry to say, would be insane. How on earth can you call for Muschamp’s head and not say a word about Greg Davis?
Again, as the post asked for, instead of making general statements that “blaming it on the offense is lame,” please address the points above and show how they are misleading. No one said that the defense doesn’t deserve some criticism. What is being said is that the root problem is the offense, and it is infecting everything else.
by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 9, 2010 9:08 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Kept trying to write a response to his fire muschamp comments
and you did it for me, ty
by PoolsideHorns on Nov 9, 2010 9:14 PM CST up reply actions
Statistics Are Misleading & Why Muschamp Taking Hits
First off, the statistics cited are very misleading. Aside from the fact that the only time fans start digging deep in stats like these is when they’re grasping for something to ease the pain of losing, many of the offenses we’ve faced have dropped into conservative play when they’ve grabbed big leads, and when they absolutely needed to move the ball to score when we’ve rallied our opponents have consistently executed dominant scoring drives to seal the deal. When an opposing offense pulls back the horses for half the game it’s easy to end up with deceptive stats.
I’m not discounting the impact of turnovers made by the offense and special teams, they’re responsible for putting the D into terrible spots all season long, they’re exactly why opponents have been able to pull back after getting big leads. But when Muschamp’s defense has been asked to make the shut down drive to help the offense close a rally they’ve epically failed all season long; opponent have scored at will when they’ve needed to, exception being Tech and mostly NU (though that almost blew up, too).
I agree with one of the main points made by ES, that Davis and the offense is a much weaker link on the team than the defense. That is without question the case. But the difference is we all knew that our offense would be the weak link going into the season. There was a reasonable expectation by fans and coaches alike that the defense would be so strong they’d keep us in games, maybe even win a few by themselves when the offense faltered. Excepting NU that hasn’t happened this season.
The example I and many others had in mind for Coach Boom’s defense was Alabama last season, so stout that it could sustain a dreadful offense. It didn’t happen, not even close. The D doesn’t even have a faint whiff of what that level of play is this year.
All of us fans are struggling to understand the collapse, sounds like the coaches and players are too. Not once have I said or intimated that WM is a bad DC; he’s not. But he certainly doesn’t deserve pedestal worship or unquestioning faith like many BON contributors seem to have invested in him. Not after this season. I still wonder if his toning down of his sideline enthusiasm hasn’t diminished his effectiveness; it was a welcome contrast to MB’s placid clapping sideline demeanor that I think the team responded to. I wish he had it back and was able to display like he did at Auburn and in his first two years here. I’ve led teams of 100+ men on the front line before in my professional career. What I learned about leadership at the time was that while you can try to nuance and massage your style to become more effective attempting to wholesale change your operational m.o. to address an area of improvement can result in losing the very element of leadership that made you effective in the first place.
I would submit that part of WM’s troubles this year is that he strayed too far from who he is as a leader while trying to fit into a mold his bosses thought he needed to adapt to for him to be successful at the next level. He needs to realize this and tell DD, MB, et al that he is who he is, and if they want the level of success they were accustomed to from him before they’ve got to give him some leeway in how his enthusiasm on the sidelines is necessary for him to be successful, he’s not MB and ought not try to act like him.
And that, my friends, is why I am so critical of WM this year, because he has so much more potential than GD does, has that many more athletes on his side of the ball than GD does, but that he’s gotten away from why we fell so hard for him and elevated him to the lofty heights we did in prior seasons. We want Coach Boom back, believing that if he returns the team can close on a winning note and maybe, just maybe get to a bowl (holy crap, can’t believe that’s THE goal of the season now :(
Are you really comparing our defense this year to Alabama's offense last year?
While Alabama didn’t have much for QB, they did have arguably two of the best RBs in the nation. No comparison.
Not At All
Where’d you pull that comparison from “The example I and many others had in mind for Coach Boom’s defense was Alabama last season, so stout that it could sustain a dreadful offense.”
Last year Alabama’s offense was pathetic but their defense was amazing, the hope was for our defense this year to do the same, carry a weak offense.
Are you stoned to misread my comment that poorly?
I think you haven't understood the statistics
First off, the statistics cited are very misleading. Aside from the fact that the only time fans start digging deep in stats like these is when they’re grasping for something to ease the pain of losing, many of the offenses we’ve faced have dropped into conservative play when they’ve grabbed big leads, and when they absolutely needed to move the ball to score when we’ve rallied our opponents have consistently executed dominant scoring drives to seal the deal. When an opposing offense pulls back the horses for half the game it’s easy to end up with deceptive stats.
Two points here: As far as raw totals, I would argue this applies to the offense way more than the defense. The offense has been the beneficiary of several garbage points, while the approach of many teams in “clock-killing” mode is roughly the same: Namely, they’re running the ball. More importantly, the S&P ratings from FO only count those stats within what they believe is a “close” game, which they define as a game within 24 points in the first quarter, 21 points in the second quarter, and 16 points in the second half. Those alleged clock-killing drives that inflate the defense’s numbers when we’re down a lot are simply discounted.
That is without question the case. But the difference is we all knew that our offense would be the weak link going into the season. There was a reasonable expectation by fans and coaches alike that the defense would be so strong they’d keep us in games, maybe even win a few by themselves when the offense faltered. Excepting NU that hasn’t happened this season.
We knew the offense would be the weaker of the units, but nobody expected it to be this bad, and that is utterly inexcusable. Are you really saying that you thought the offense would be this self-destructive? We expected an offense that would struggle a bit early in the season and steadily improve, not this complete mess 9 games into the season.
The example I and many others had in mind for Coach Boom’s defense was Alabama last season, so stout that it could sustain a dreadful offense. It didn’t happen, not even close. The D doesn’t even have a faint whiff of what that level of play is this year.
I think you need to look at film of Alabama last year. They didn’t have a great offense because McElroy is a mediocre QB, but they had two stud RB’s and never even came close to being as bad as this Texas offense. I guarantee you this Texas defense looks better if we had Alabama’s offense from last year, but we do not by a long shot.
by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 9, 2010 9:17 PM CST up reply actions
Um, Selective Overlooking of the Entire Comment
ES, did you not read the following:
“I’m not discounting the impact of turnovers made by the offense and special teams, they’re responsible for putting the D into terrible spots all season long, they’re exactly why opponents have been able to pull back after getting big leads. But when Muschamp’s defense has been asked to make the shut down drive to help the offense close a rally they’ve epically failed all season long”
or:
“And that, my friends, is why I am so critical of WM this year, because he has so much more potential than GD does, has that many more athletes on his side of the ball than GD does, but that he’s gotten away from why we fell so hard for him and elevated him to the lofty heights we did in prior seasons. We want Coach Boom back”
I simply can’t oblige the sentiment you express in this entry, which is a complete lack of criticism of WM, he has been a big disappointment this year, rather than merely responsible for an occasional bad call or victim of bad luck. I’m not saying fire the guy, he’s a decent DC, but this year he showed his flaws a multitude of times, his defenses haven’t just failed when they’ve been on the field too long, been backed up to their end zone by turnovers, etc. The D has blown it too many times to remember when there’s no ready excuse, which sadly is what I feel is missing from you analysis and defense of WM. He’s earned criticism, perhaps disproportionate to the criticism leveled at GD. But it’s human nature to be harder on those who have great potential unrealized because they’re not getting it done than on those who have limited potential and are doing about what you expect of them.
I selected these portions
Because that is what I had a strong disagreement with. As for the other parts of your post, I personally think they’re a little too speculative but certainly possible, and I am in basic agreement that Muschamp is not above criticism. That said, I don’t agree with this:
I simply can’t oblige the sentiment you express in this entry, which is a complete lack of criticism of WM, he has been a big disappointment this year, rather than merely responsible for an occasional bad call or victim of bad luck.
I’ve said time and again I’m not trying to Muschamp off the hook but to show what the root problems are on this team, and I wouldn’t call him a “big” disappointment as I would say that his defense hasn’t met our very high expectations. If I may extend my fever-infection analogy from my post, I wouldn’t deny that we should try to treat the fever (the defense) with ice packs and meds. Doing so would certainly help, and that is Muschamp’s job. However, the real problem is the infection (the offense). Without fixing that, you can’t expect long-term health.
by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 10, 2010 7:23 AM CST up reply actions
Logic? What logic?
From The Elusive Shadow’s apology: "They say stuff like . . . the sarcastic, “All hail Will Muschamp!” when the defense gives up a score when the other team starts at our 40. I’m sorry, but I do not see the logic behind this."
-——————————————————————-
I don’t see the logic of you and other Muschamp apologists conceding a TD to the opposition just because they get the ball at our 40. There is no reason whatsoever that a great defense or even a very good defense could not stop a one-dimensional offense cold at that point on the field.
How about holding them to only 20 yards or so and perhaps a field goal? Is even that too much to ask?
Apparently so.
Did you actually watch the game? Did you see the play that gave KState its first score? The KState RB would have taken that baby to the house whether the play was run from our 40 or from their 20! The ONLY reason Muschamp’s defense didn’t give up an 80-yard scoring drive the first time KState got the ball is because KState didn’t have to go that far.
The fact that opposing offenses have often had short fields to work with has actually been a blessing in disguise for our defense’s misleading total yards allowed stat.
UCLA, Iowa State, and KState all could have easily run up over 400 yards of offense on our “all-time best” defense had they been required to do so.
I don’t buy the “our sensitive little defense’s psyche has been perturbed by the offense and special teams poor play” crap for one second. It’s Muschamp’s job to motivate the defense to play lights out WHATEVER else is going on in the world. It’s Muschamp’s job and it’s a job Muschamp is not doing very well at the moment whether or not you and the other Muschamp ass kissers out there realize it.
Yes our offense is god-awful. Everyone (with the exception of the strawmen that you create to deflect any criticism of Muschamp) sees that. Yes our offensive players seem to have quit on Davis. Everyone sees that, as well.
But some of us also see that the defense, which coming in was billed as the best in the Mack Brown era, is, right now, well, pretty bad. What’s worse, we also see that the defensive players appear to have quit on Muschamp.
So you tell me which is a worse sign for the future of the Texas program: players quitting on a guy who will be watching football games in his own living room in five years (or sooner) or players quitting on a guy who will be leading the Texas program at some point in the near future?
I had a feeling a response like this was coming
Despite what I said about this not being about whether or not Muschamp is perfect (he isn’t).
I don’t see the logic of you and other Muschamp apologists conceding a TD to the opposition just because they get the ball at our 40. There is no reason whatsoever that a great defense or even a very good defense could not stop a one-dimensional offense cold at that point on the field.
How about holding them to only 20 yards or so and perhaps a field goal? Is even that too much to ask?
Apparently so.
I have a feeling you didn’t read my post in full. I say this very clearly:
This does not totally absolve our defense, as we, of course, would hope that they would give up far less touchdowns and force more field goals in such circumstances. Still, it is difficult to keep the opponent off the scoreboard when they get such advantageous field position.
It’s a legit criticism, one that I myself made, but that doesn’t address the root problem (which was what this whole post was about). WHY is the defense continually put in such positions? It is pretty telling, statistically, that the vast majority of the scores given up come off of very short fields. I ask you what I asked in my post: If our defense holds to field goals in most of those drives, are our fortunes that much different? Does our offense magically start scoring points to win these games?
Did you actually watch the game? Did you see the play that gave KState its first score? The KState RB would have taken that baby to the house whether the play was run from our 40 or from their 20! The ONLY reason Muschamp’s defense didn’t give up an 80-yard scoring drive the first time KState got the ball is because KState didn’t have to go that far.
The fact that opposing offenses have often had short fields to work with has actually been a blessing in disguise for our defense’s misleading total yards allowed stat.
UCLA, Iowa State, and KState all could have easily run up over 400 yards of offense on our "all-time best" defense had they been required to do so.
I did, and I think you are incorrect in your observations. For sure, our defense has given up big plays, most notably against Baylor, but that is often the product of starting with a short field. From what I’m seeing, they’re often trying too hard to make the big play because they want to stem the tide, which includes unsound tackling in an effort to dislodge the football. Also, while Gideon isn’t known to be a track star by any means, if Daniel Thomas was required to go farther Gideon would have caught him because he was forced to shorten his angle to accommodate for the goalline.
Also, those teams you listed above had every opportunity to put up 400 yards of offense. They didn’t, because their successes were sporadic. They’ve hit big plays, which are unfortunate, but by and large their other drives were quick ones that didn’t travel far. So I think you’re contention that they’d just run up and down the field is simply wrong.
I don’t buy the "our sensitive little defense’s psyche has been perturbed by the offense and special teams poor play" crap for one second.
Then you should watch some more football and keep in mind that these are college kids, because these units don’t exist in a vacuum, isolated from each other.
It’s Muschamp’s job to motivate the defense to play lights out WHATEVER else is going on in the world. It’s Muschamp’s job and it’s a job Muschamp is not doing very well at the moment whether or not you and the other Muschamp ass kissers out there realize it.
It’s not only Muschamp’s job. It falls on Mack too, and with such widely different standards it is easy to see how 18-22 year old kids could get frustrated. Muschamp could be doing some things as better, as I and other posters have noted, but again, this post is about identifying ROOT problems. Muschamp is far from the root cause of our issues.
Yes our offense is god-awful. Everyone (with the exception of the strawmen that you create to deflect any criticism of Muschamp) sees that. Yes our offensive players seem to have quit on Davis. Everyone sees that, as well.
When exactly did I say I wanted to deflect criticism? In fact, I specifically said that was not the point of the post. The point, again, was to show what the root cause of our team’s failure is. You don’t seem to understand that. Also, I did not create any strawmen, because nowhere did I insinuate that those who made such comments (and the comments are real, you can skim our open threads for a few of them) were unaware of our offense’s failures. I am saying that they seem unaware that the defense’s struggles are largely caused by a historic ineptitude on offense. I find it ironic that you accuse me of creating straw-men, when if fact you’re throwing the accusation that those making such points are just “Muschamp ass kissers” when my post and others, such as GhostofBigRoy’s post on Gideon, have been very clear that Muschamp has made mistakes. Who’s creating the straw-men here?
But some of us also see that the defense, which coming in was billed as the best in the Mack Brown era, is, right now, well, pretty bad. What’s worse, we also see that the defensive players appear to have quit on Muschamp.
Billed by Mack, not Muschamp, as you said. And you believed him when we were losing Houston and Thomas? Besides, as I responded to another poster, Mack was only talking about “potential,” which I also doubted. Do I think the defense could have performed better in our games? Definitely; I noted on my post on Oklahoma that Muschamp had no excuse for being unprepared for the no huddle, and many others have criticized Muschamp for putting Gideon in positions to fail. This is again a problem with a vast difference in expectation, expectations that I feel were largely unreasonable. If we were fielding our 2008 offense, I’d say we’d have a couple more wins but we would still not be where we want to be, which is competing for the Big 12. The main problem? Again, the offense. This defense with a better offense would give us a chance to compete this year. This offense would torpedo any team without the ’85 Bears.
So you tell me which is a worse sign for the future of the Texas program: players quitting on a guy who will be watching football games in his own living room in five years (or sooner) or players quitting on a guy who will be leading the Texas program at some point in the near future?
It’s bad sign when the head coach seems to have lost the players because of his persistent blind spot towards the offense. The players play for Muschamp, but ultimately they all play for Mack.
Let me repeat what I asked for in the post: Please explain these statistics without resorting to the untrue accusation of me being a Muschamp apologist, when I specifically say that’s not what I’m doing. Tell us why the great divide in S&P numbers are wrong (the FEI numbers from another poster too). Tell us how a different top defense this year would change our fortunes significantly, if our defense is so horrible. And most importantly, tell us how my argument that the offense is the ROOT problem is wrong. Again, the ROOT problem, not the only problem, which in no way do I argue for.
by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 9, 2010 11:26 PM CST up reply actions
Part of this seems reasonable (I'm ignoring the parts that do not, TES has them covered)
Texas is 92nd in opponent red zone touchdown conversion percentage. For those seeking context, better than Georgia and Auburn, worse than everyone in the Big 12 except Kansas. Of note, UT is 98th against BCS AQ schools.
For Muschamp consistent context, UT was 40th last year in the same metric, and 12th in 2008. Will Muschamp had Georgia at 16th in 2007. So, you’re right, something is inescapably wrong with this unit – and it’s not just number of times they’ve been put in a red zone situation. I don’t agree that it’s as simple as “the players have quit on Muschamp”, but it is very possible (even likely) that they know something we don’t that is affecting performance.
proud to swim home
by learned hand on Nov 9, 2010 11:28 PM CST up reply actions
To my simple mind,
if all else is equal, a team 40 yards from the opponents’ goal line is more likely to score than a team 85 yards from the opponents’ goal line.
"I'm not playing favorites. All my favorites have graduated." - A. Lemons
by Paleface Horn on Nov 10, 2010 5:30 AM CST up reply actions
Isn't a turnover leading to a short field what they call sudden change?
And aren’t sudden change situtations supposed to be a rare occurrence?
How can our defense keep up? They fight their hearts out to force a three and out and then our offense give’s the ball right back with a sack/fumble, INT, or muffed point. Who could blame them for getting worn out physically and/or emotionally. Maybe you should try playing in their cleats. Oh wait…
Excellent coments from many sources
I’ve never doubted GD’s intelligence – just his work ethic. He’s good for one or two original game plans a season but rarely much more. The rest of the time, he usually trots out the same inane (that means silly not psychotic) series of plays and waits to see how the opposing defense will respond. He’s a classic counter-puncher. He only rarely seems to enter a game with a clear idea of how to attack the opposing defense.
Instead, he has our kids run the same old stuff for a quarter or more and then tries to adjust based on what the opposing defense is doing. In short, I think he’s intellectually lazy. He doesn’t seem to want to prepare a new game plan each week, just rely on the same old stuff until he’s forced into something different.
It seems to me Muschamp’s problem this season is that he did a great job building a unit that could handle the spread offenses we saw in 2008 and 2009 but wasn’t ready to face the ball control rushing attacks we’ve face this season. Of course, having said that with two weeks to prepare. Muschamp did pull off a minor miracle in Lincoln shutting down a Taylor Martinez for Heisman campaign, as well as the rest of the NU rushing attack. Even the great Iowa State defense that throttled us for three quarters wasn’t able to accomplish that!
The sad truth is that UCLA (in the second half), Baylor, Iowa State, and K State all did a really good job blocking our defensive front and our secondary did a really good job running themselves out of the way of opposing runners. That’s a lethal combination. I can fault Muschamp for some of that but not all of it. Our D was on the field an awful lot in each of those games because of our inept offense. I also question whether Muschamp is really at fault for the continued poor play of our secondary or if our secondary coach should carry the mother lode of the blame for our continued missteps in that area.
The bottom line is that we’re not a fundamentally sound football team. We don’t block particularly well and we’re hardly what I would call sure tacklers. With only a few exceptions, our players seem to lack any sense of urgency on either side of the ball. Finally, there is a general lack of attention to detail, especially in our special teams play. Until those facts are addressed, the schemes we run will remain of secondary importance.
Let's say for the sake of argument, and it general I would say it is a fair assessment
that Texas has the same level of “talent” on both sides of the ball. Some gifted upperclassmen who have shown talent, but haven’t been able to rally such young squads, and also largely haven’t been able to be the leg that the team might need to lean on in crunch time, and a dearth of underclassmen that have a lot of talent, but are prone to mistakes due to inexperience.
What has Muschamp been able to turn his squad into? A unit that is still largely productive, and able to get stops and give the ball back to its offense on most drives, but a unit that also has a tendency to give up big plays, due to a combination of both the mental errors of the players on the field, and as a natural byproduct of the system that Muschamp has had to run in leu of the offense (which we’ll get to in a minute). In all of our losses, the offenses have been able to exploit a now very obvious weakness: a lack of big, run blocking tackles in the middle of the line. UCLA, ISU, OU, and KSU all went straight at a D-line that, through the collection of players that we’ve ended up with this year (and injuries as the season progressed) has basically been one legit tackle and a bunch of pass rushers. This group largely shut Baylor down but, as Muschamp was forced to put his secondary players on islands, was exploited for a few big plays, which was all they needed.
Now, Greg Davis was given basically the same situation. A young crew, some players more reliable than others, but for the first time in six years he doesn’t have a player he can lean back and watch move the ball down the field. He has turned that crew into the worst offense in college football, and to again repeat the clarifications above, without any exaggeration. If you look around the other 119 D-1 programs, you will be hard pressed to find an offense that has such a blatant absence of identity, originality, and balance. I can’t stress the lack of genuine “scheme” enough. We have 3 formations: 11 personnel out of either shotgun or single back, and the 5 wide, without about 3 or 4 plays in each. It is truly, indisputably, infuriatingly one of the most puzzling enigmas in college football. You will not find a coordinator who will not make any attempt to attack an easily identifiable weakness in an opposing defense, or one who can not identify what a defense is doing to stop it and adjust to counter his own tendencies.
Seeing how this season has played out, I no longer have any reservations about giving every ounce of credit for past offensive production to Vince and Colt, with a little dash of JC sprinkled in between. An offensive coordinator who is actually good at his job would be able to get a level of production out of this group similar to what Muschamp (a very good, if not great, coordinator) is getting: some drives that go nowhere, an occasional headbanger of a turnover, but also quite a few drives that are completely representative of the level of talent that comes to Texas. Sustained production, explosive plays, exploited weaknesses; these things should never be COMPLETELY MISSING from a University of Texas offense. During years like this they should be generally balanced with plays and drives that also display the inexperience of the team, but what GD is showing us is that he has decided to run an offense that is built to get the absolute least out of what he’s given. And in the past Texas has given him a hell of a lot, and in the last two years Muschamp got the most out of what he was given, and it got us to two BCS games. This year, when graduation, NFL deferment, and injuries have given them as little as we may see in quite some time, Muschamp has gotten as much as we could possibly expect out of his guys, and GD has gotten an offense that makes us happy when a decent punt follows a three and out.
We were there in ‘04-’05 when GD said “everybody go deep, run Vince run!”. We were there in ‘06-’07 when GD said “oh my god, JC can speed around everybody!”. We were there in ‘08-’09 when GD said “Whoa, Colt never misses Shipley, DO IT MORE!!!”. And now we’re here in 2010, when GD is saying “I don’t know what the hell I’m doing.”
end rambling.
If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!
Our defense gets no practice against the run
In addition to short fields for opponents, too much time on field for defense, and too many turnovers by our offense, the problem is that our defense has to practice against an offense with no rush or tight-end gamebook.
So our defensive gameplanning and players are not getting enough exposure and practice in defending the run!!
How does our OC watch tape of Iowa State getting blown out by OU 52-0 and then come up with a gameplan which scores only 6 points through 3 quarters?!?
This is another thing that I don't think people realize
The D really doesn’t get any practice against a legitimate run offense, or any kind of downfield attack. We have no idea how much having Colt contributed to the improvement of the D in the last two years, but I bet it was a lot.
If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!
Very good read
As someone who is a “default” GD defender for performances in years past, I though the OP and most of the arguments/debate were very well articulated throughout this thread. Obviously the offense is performing worse than the defense this year, but there’s obviously room for improvement in all facets of the game for us, and I’m glad to see that most of those on the extremes on either side of the arguments seem to be making their way to some vague common ground.
Don't let the bastards get you down. Even the burnt orange ones.
by Hopkins Horn on Nov 10, 2010 1:12 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
+1
I enjoyed reading this thread as well. Lots of good stuff in here from both sides, and people are seeming to come together about things. Now all we need to do is pull together again
You're gonna strongly agree with some of what I say, and you'll strongly disagree with some of what I say. Either way, I don't give a d@#n. I'm just here to talk sports.
I don't hate
Greg Davis or Larry MacWhorter. But the offense is predictable, inefficient and easily stopped by the most mediocre defenses. The O-Line block like a bunch of pussies.
My view is this has nothing to do with talent, just well-paid coaches not willing or not able to do their jobs. I just saw a film on Youtube of our D hitting Marcus Dupree back in the day. And if you saw our O-Line in those days, they blocked like men. They would absolutely hit your ass. And our D would take you to the mat as well. You needed ice & heat therapy after playing Texas back then.
I am convinced that everyone of our current players can play the same. They just need some encouragement. Our D and O-line comes out hitting Saturday, O State will quit by halftime.
DELETE THIS ARTICLE
This defense is horrific! Cannot stop a team on 3rd down to save its life. Doesn’t create turnovers. Gives up big plays all game long.
It’s a good thing OSU put it on cruise control in the 2nd half or Weeden would have thrown for 600 yards.
Read more carefully
This defense is flawed, and OSU was well built to exploit those better than anyone we’ve faced these years. Nowhere does this article deny that.
The article is about the ROOT, or MAIN, problem with this team. As much as the defense struggled against the Pokes, the offense was still worse.
by TheElusiveShadow on Nov 16, 2010 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
Sorry...
you’re right – the offense is the main problem. Just frustrated with the defense not stepping up, especially against the run. This goes back to the Alabama game, and was driven home against aTm.

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