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Would Texas Join The Big 10 Conference?

My plan to hold off discussing conference realignment until the end of hoops season has been undermined by the tidal wave of stories flooding newspapers and blogs over the past couple weeks. I'm still going to wait to write up a long-form set of thoughts on the topic, but I started getting warmed up Tuesday night, joining the outstanding Iowa bloggers at Black Heart Gold Pants for their weekly podcast. Joining me as a guest was Bill Connelly from Rock M Nation; together, we tackled the topic of whether Missouri and/or Texas would leave to join the Big 12, and if so, under what circumstances.

What's really interesting about conference realignment -- both right now and in most every instance -- is that it is live, high-stakes game theory in action. Which school(s) hold the trump cards? Which conference(s)? How much information does each party have? When is the optimal time to make a first move? To wait and see? Should you signal/countersignal? Remain silent?

The answers are different each time the 'game' of conference realignment is played, and varies from school to school, conference to conference within each iteration of the game. Last time around, the ACC's grabbing of Miami, BC, and Virginia Tech was the key move that set all the other decisions into action: the Big East raided Conference USA to replenish its ranks; Conference USA picked up teams from both the MAC and WAC; and so on.

So we're in the early stages of another round of the 'game,' and this version is setting up to be one of the most interesting yet, for a few reason:

  1. Neither the Pac 10 nor Big 10 especially need to make a move, and it's possible that the optimal outcome for both Conferences would be not to expand. However, if one Conference sits still but the other expands, the one to move second could be greatly disadvantaged, depending on the first move made and the chain reactions it sets off. Alternatively, while we would assume that the school to move first would be picking up a school it wants, the first move could set off a chain reaction that makes available one or more even more desirable schools, benefiting the Conference moving second.


  2. There is the possibility this game of realignment will set off a long-lasting, far-reaching chain reaction. If the perception that this realignment is likely to result in a massive, far-reaching shake up begins to grow more widely, there potentially arrives a perception point at which outside players who would be otherwise inclined to sit out begin considering joining the game. Or making a preemptive move, even.


  3. Certainly the way this game looks like it's setting up to be played, the far, far and away most important piece of information (and potential prize) is the University of Texas. UT could sit still/let the Big 12 get raided and rebuild around itself, go to the Big 10, go to the Pac 10, or (no joke) venture off onto the Independent trail. It's not difficult to see the impact Texas has on this particular game set up. The most valuable information in the game will be knowing what Texas wants to do; accordingly, if UT is smart it will realize that (A) schools typically situated in a strong position within this game are working to leverage from two options (Stay or Go), or perhaps three (Stay or Go1 or Go2), and (B) Texas can treat as viable four different options (Stay or GoP10 or GoB10 or GoInd).

    From such a position of strength, if Texas can relatively cleanly decide what it's preferred objective is (Wild Card: disgusting, self-defeating, cry-festival at the State Legislature), it should be able to move information in ways that make near-certain the moves unfold as Texas prefers. At this point, with ample time before any first domino might fall and multiple suitors coveting its membership, the best move for the University of Texas is no move. (With how much both the Pac 10 and Big 10 would benefit from adding Texas, UT should have the influence to intervene to stop either Conference from making a first move early in the game, should UT see such a move as unfriendly to achieving its preferred objective.)

I could fill 100 pages discussing the various players, scenarios, and strategies of this year's 'game', but I'll wrap this introduction for now and direct to you to the podcast for a full half hour of realignment talk, in which I discuss why Texas holds the power, the potential viability of Texas forging ahead on its own network, and finally, my belief that while the most likely outcome is preserving the status quo, if Texas does in fact leave for one of the two, it would be to join the Pac 10.

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Nice overview

I’ll definitely get to the podcast, but first…a question. After reading #1 above I was wondering, did you write the dialogue for the “game of wits/iocaine powder” scene in The Princess Bride? ;)

41-38 !!

by JoeT63 on Feb 18, 2010 5:37 PM CST reply actions  

And are you Sicilian?

"A lot of people look for the easy way to do anything, in swimming there is no easy way." - Eddie Reese

by SwimTexas on Feb 18, 2010 6:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Ha

Re-reading it, it’s a minor miracle the sentences aren’t completely unintelligible. It’s not easy on the eyes or ears, though, that’s for sure.

You ain't hurt...

by Peter Bean on Feb 18, 2010 6:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Thanks, PB. I keep thinking all this is just a lot of smoke generated by

(football) offseason idle hands. But you, and an especially insightful post last week by IUTex, have me thinking.

Would UT actually move? There are so many pros and cons to it . . . Some factors:

1. Dollars. Lots of dollars; 2. Big Ten would seem to be impossible, because that league would want just one school and I cannot envision state politics letting UT go and Texas A&M not go; 3. Pac-10 seems impossible because of the impact of scheduling, travel, time zone differential; 4. Refer to Point 1.

Most of all, though, a move to either conference probably means the Longhorns can’t as easily compete for a national title in football (under the current format), because both leagues would involve killer road trips and terribly difficult week-to-week schedules (almost no easy opponents) . . . On the other hand, if an actual playoff scenario is just around the corner, jumping makes tons of sense; the top couple of teams in a Big Ten or Pac-10 with UT would get into a playoff, so going 10-2 wouldn’t be the KO to title hopes it is now. . . .Interesting stuff.

by edsp on Feb 18, 2010 5:56 PM CST reply actions  

I don't see why there would be no easy opponents

I think there are patsies, middlings, and tough teams in both conferences. UT is likely to have at least two, possibly three or four easy opponents in either conference. In the Big 12, it’s Baylor and a couple of Big 12 North teams. In the Big Ten, depending on the alignment, it’s some combination of Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, and Northwestern.

I think the bigger difference in schedule difficulty would be replacing patsy OOC games with rivalry matchups against OU and atm, not to mention agreements with Cal, UCLA, Arkansas, etc.

I have beat wholesale ass for a whole lot less.

by burntorangehorn on Feb 18, 2010 6:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Politics

“Wild Card: disgusting, self-defeating, cry-festival at the State Legislature”

“I cannot envision state politics letting UT go and Texas A&M not go”

These are the big things. During the formation of the Big 12, the State Legislature forced Baylor and Texas Tech into the Big 12 as well.

by Reggieball on Feb 18, 2010 6:46 PM CST up reply actions  

If UT was really in play...

surely the SEC simply open its doors wide and allow UT and A&M admission. Solves the money issue and the geography issue on the UT side and not to mention that UT would be aligning itself with a conference that is enjoying rapid population and economic growth, which is not happening in the Big Ten. Granted, I am not a UT fan and I hate all of you, but honestly, would UT really be interested in any conference except for the SEC?

by meatybob on Feb 18, 2010 6:18 PM CST reply actions  

Texas has made it pretty clear in the past they have no interest in the SEC.

They don’t seem to view th SEC schools as having similar academic missions as Texas.

by Texas Wahoo on Feb 18, 2010 6:31 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Georgia's not too bad either

I don’t know what the issue is, but I’d be wary of joining the SEC for football. I’d rather shut them out from any entrance into the Texas recruiting territory as much as possible. The rest of the conference raids Florida a lot, and I’d expect them to do much of the same with Texas.

I have beat wholesale ass for a whole lot less.

by burntorangehorn on Feb 18, 2010 6:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Thanks for giving us credit, burntorangehorn

According to the 2010 U.S. News & World Report rankings, the University of Georgia is a tier one national university with more selective admissions, a score of 51, and an overall rank of 58th.

To put that into context, the same rankings deem the University of Texas as a tier one national university with more selective admissions, a score of 57, and an overall rank of 47th.

The world has turned more than a few times in the last two decades, and, as someone who was admitted to the University of Georgia in 1988 (one year after the Jan Kemp scandal caused Charles Knapp to be elevated to the presidency in Athens) and who continues to receive alumni publications, I can tell you the standards have increased steadily and dramatically since the SEC last expanded.

That said, I agree it makes little sense for Texas to consider such a move, and, while Texas would be an excellent choice if the SEC was considering expansion, the SEC would derive little benefit from expanding at the present time. Fourteen teams is unwieldy and dilutes the brand.

I’m not trying to revive the conference wars; I just wanted to say a word on behalf of my alma mater, which seldom is given its due as an academic institution. Thanks again, burntorangehorn.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Feb 19, 2010 10:48 AM CST up reply actions  

No problem, dawg--I have a friend who just landed an awesome tenure-track professorship there

He turned down a lot of schools in the northeast, many of them with names that are much more closely associated with academics (two in the Ivy League, in fact), because Georgia has a superior reputation for his particular field of literature. Too many throw the wheat (UF, UGA) out with the chaff.

I have beat wholesale ass for a whole lot less.

by burntorangehorn on Feb 19, 2010 11:38 AM CST up reply actions  

15 years ago Texas wanted no part of the SEC.

The Big 8 was picked as a better match academically. And in some respects, even the Big 8 was a bit of a reach. Recall that Texas was trying to raise academic requirements right out of the gate.

The Big 10 is a much better match for Texas (and A&M), as it is primarily populated by large, state research universities of similar stature. But the geography is a bit of a problem.

by Reggieball on Feb 18, 2010 6:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Geography, climate, culture, etc.

I admit that I haven’t been to all the Big Ten towns, but I’ve been to a few, and I’ve been through a lot of Pac 10 towns and of course the Big 12. I’d be sad to see Texas in the perm-and-mullet culture of the SEC, or the rust-belt Big Ten. I think the schools fits best of all with the Pac 10 in every way except geography, and even that makes a little more sense than the Big Ten.

Now, I know money trumps the culture, climate, academics, and even geography to some extent, so there is a rea$on to think that Texas could end up in the Big Ten instead, but I think it’d be a little disheartening. My first choice is for UT to be in a Texas-centric conference, as it is now, but my second choice is for UT to be in a laid-back, western conference like the Pac 10. UT + Utah/BYU + Pac 10 = awesome.

I have beat wholesale ass for a whole lot less.

by burntorangehorn on Feb 19, 2010 9:04 AM CST up reply actions  

SEC would gladly take Texas

But the gallery is correct: the interest isn’t mutual. The list of reasons is numerous and extends well past academics, although that’s a convenient one to throw out there to indicate the whole thing’s a non-starter.

In a move of Texas to the SEC, all the benefits flow one way. And it’s not ours.

You ain't hurt...

by Peter Bean on Feb 18, 2010 6:58 PM CST up reply actions  

I would not discount Aggie moving to the SEC though

That could be a possible (but unlikely) move if we leave to another conference and the legislature “recommends” Aggie have a home before we bolt.

Your tongue can't repel flavor of that magnitude!!

by UT2001 on Feb 18, 2010 8:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Aggie would be a better fit

Really, what could be more SEC than this?

I have beat wholesale ass for a whole lot less.

by burntorangehorn on Feb 19, 2010 9:34 AM CST up reply actions  

The Big 10 or Pac 10 would offer way more in terms of research affiliations than the SEC

as several people have recently pointed out. This is where the real funding for public universities lies and with states cutting budgets this is where bottom lines could be improved if it were deemed necessary.

As PB mentions independence is a possible course of action if Nebraska or Mizzou were poached; it would be interesting to know how the Texas legislature would react in the case of the little brother, A&M. Also this might or might not provide much in the way of increasing Texas’ ability to garner research funds. The independence route hasn’t worked out particularly well in athletics recently for Notre Dame but the bottom line is not driven by athletics money in their case either. PB might know more about the inner workings, it certainly didn’t stop him from pursuing academics there.

IMHO Texas will not make any move out of the Big 12 until the status quo changes substantially meaning the Big 12 is weakened substantially in some metric other than TV revenue.

"If worms carried pistols, birds wouldn't eat 'em"- Darrell Royal

by SpiritOfTheFedora on Feb 18, 2010 7:47 PM CST up reply actions  

OK, a couple of points.

First, I think you guys, honestly, have the recruiting situation backwards. If your state is being overrun by outside teams taking recruits, you don’t shun them, you either join them or join a league that puts your school in an as high or higher profile position. If you remember the early to mid 1990s b4 the Big XII, Texas was hemorrhaging recruits to the likes of NU, OU (for the early part of the 1990s) and most damaging, the Big Ten. If you look at the rosters of those Michigan and OSU teams in the 1980s and the 1990s, they were relatively loaded with Texas players. When the Big XII was formed, the 4 Texas schools were placed in a situation with much more visibility with CU, KSU, and esp Neb all at their apex. And what happened, TX recruits were staying at UT to play in this new, higher profile conference. So if the concern is that SEC schools may poach TX recruits, tis better that you place yourself in a position to either join and level the playing field. For instance, someone mentioned that Florida’s recruits are being taken by the other SEC universities. Florida just had the nation’s best recruiting class! What more could they want?

Regarding research. Yes, I do agree that the larger Big Ten schools are very large research universities. My 2nd point is that can anyone name a tangible research/academic barrier that somehow is broken by a university joining another athletic conference? To be frank, and I am quite agnostic toward all of this, but I highly doubt that grant money and research affiliations hinge on athletic conference alignments. And yes, I know about the CIC, and how the CIC is the pool of research $ for the Big Ten universities (including Chicago), but that is it, its pooling of their research dollars. Anyone else who joins would pool their research money as well. Maybe there is something that I am missing, but I have a feeling that if there is a large benefit to be had research-wise by inclusion in the Big Ten (or Pac Ten for that matter), that ND would have taken up the Big Ten offer years ago.

by meatybob on Feb 18, 2010 9:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Despite their (generally deserved) academic reputation

Notre Dame is not a significant research institution (142nd in the country (77 million in total research) or about half the size of #110 Tulane (137 mil) – Texas is 32 overall (approx 450 mil) source ). Notre Dame doesn’t have the infrastructure to benefit from the CIC in the same manner that Texas does, and considering the age and stature of the institution that is likely a conscious choice on the university’s part.

Also, the CIC goes beyond a pooling of research funding. It also shares faculty, courses (i.e. one could take a streaming video class from U of M while at UT) unifies study abroad programs, offers shared graduate programs, and pools the libraries of each institution (and soon will do so with scanned copies of all volumes).

proud to swim home

by learned hand on Feb 19, 2010 11:01 AM CST up reply actions  

The NBC deal was brand new at the time of the first offer.

The deal is dated, especially with the Big Ten Network and the SEC/ESPN deal. In fact, it’s significantly less than what members of the SEC and Big Ten are making these days.

But at the time the Big 10 made overtures to ND, the NBC television deal was the largest television contract in the nation, which is why they didn’t accept. I have a feeling they would accept now, if not for opposition from the alumni, who know they would not have their automatic BCS bid anymore… they’d actually have to earn it.

by PuppyTN on Feb 19, 2010 11:02 AM CST up reply actions  

Except those two member schools

have been in that conference since 1932, long before most of these concepts we’re bandying about came into play. That sort of history will trump most anything (which is why people who think the Big Ten would “swap” out a school like Iowa or MSU for another school are misguided). Plus, there are fewer of the academic “powerhouses” in the South for Vandy to compete with. I think they enjoy their clear-cut position as the academic big dog (yes, Florida and Georgia a fine institutions) in the SEC.

Also, those SEC schools swim in far less cash than Big 10 member schools. The Big Ten Network, with its equal revenue distribution, makes even the “worst” member more than the SEC members with the biggest take. This is to say nothing of a) the conservative estimate that the addition of UT would net each member an additional 6 to 8 million yearly and b) the cash bonanza that is the CIC. Academics, while not as visible as football, are still the financial life-blood of major universities.

I’m not nearly as eloquent as Illini blogger, Frank the Tank, but any discussion of this subject should be paused until his last entry on the subject has been read. It’s long, but if there is any interest in this subject at all I highly doubt one could possibly be bored whilst reading it.

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Feb 20, 2010 11:59 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't want this. I don't think anyone on here REALLY wants this.

But, what kind of TV package could UT put together if it were independent?

by edsp on Feb 18, 2010 7:00 PM CST reply actions  

Think its own channel

By Independent, I mean Texas decides that it’s not getting back from those around it to justify sharing its benefits with them. So you go Independent, negotiate your own TV contract or you take a stab at creating your own channel. As I said on the podcast, I think the technological feasibility component might be a factor we’re looking at. Where will streaming video online be? How fast will our broadband cables be as bandwidth usage increases? What technologies are emerging that make more financially and managerially viable your own production system.

And, importantly, what’s your distribution model?

You ain't hurt...

by Peter Bean on Feb 18, 2010 7:36 PM CST up reply actions  

God point about A&M and politics on the podcast. Do you think anyone in the Capitol would let Texas negotiate a contract without figuring in little brother? Doubtful. I don’t see a way to ever be independent of the sheep farmers, especially if Gov. Good Hair wins again.

by dimecoverage on Feb 18, 2010 7:39 PM CST up reply actions  

What if Ms. Good Hair wins?

The senator from Dallas. Then A&M loses a lot of negotiating chips. Either way it’s an ex-cheerleader from an alma mater figuring in a large way. Texas politics at its best.

"If worms carried pistols, birds wouldn't eat 'em"- Darrell Royal

by SpiritOfTheFedora on Feb 18, 2010 7:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Either way, Aggie probably goes where we go.

Not going into politics here, but ex-cheerleaders should not run for office. Ever. Either party.

by dimecoverage on Feb 18, 2010 8:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Just occured to me

does anyone have a pic of Kay in her cheerleader days? Would ya?

Your tongue can't repel flavor of that magnitude!!

by UT2001 on Feb 18, 2010 8:38 PM CST up reply actions  

I’ve seen a few. She was attractive.

by dimecoverage on Feb 18, 2010 8:39 PM CST up reply actions  

opps. Guees I'm asking the wrong person there...

Your tongue can't repel flavor of that magnitude!!

by UT2001 on Feb 18, 2010 8:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh. My. God.

"Texas played without its best player for nearly 56 minutes. There's an asterisk." -- Ivan Maisel, ESPN.com

by Hopkins Horn on Feb 18, 2010 10:34 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Um...wow...

where to begin…shouldn’t history in an “outfit” like this be automatic DQ from holding any public office?

"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." ~ Will Muschamp
""I always felt like, and I paid a price for it, that it didn't seem right for one guy to bring me down." ~ The Tyler Rose

by Mulliganville on Feb 18, 2010 11:37 PM CST up reply actions  

I have these ugly visions

of Perry donning that outfit in the Governor’s office late nights when nobody is around.

Not going into politics either but I’m with you on the ex-cheerleaders running for office. I’m trying to recall one of the classic comedies with Dan Akroyd or John Belushi or somebody with one of characters looking a lot like the guy in that pic.

"If worms carried pistols, birds wouldn't eat 'em"- Darrell Royal

by SpiritOfTheFedora on Feb 19, 2010 4:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Douglas Niedermey from Animal House

"If worms carried pistols, birds wouldn't eat 'em"- Darrell Royal

by SpiritOfTheFedora on Feb 19, 2010 4:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Like I said...

…in league with Dean Wormer.

Sherman’s on double-secret probation.

I have beat wholesale ass for a whole lot less.

by burntorangehorn on Feb 19, 2010 7:26 PM CST up reply actions  

great name for the gov. +1

Your tongue can't repel flavor of that magnitude!!

by UT2001 on Feb 18, 2010 8:37 PM CST up reply actions  

I guess that would be Sen. Good Hair. :-)

by dimecoverage on Feb 18, 2010 8:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Sen. Good Hair and her Burnt Orange Jacket commercials

Anyone else notice the commercials—that jacket color choice is no accident. I always thought he was Gov. Good Hair.

Back to football, the Aggies and other schools have enough counter-pull to challenge Texas moving. But, I really have started to like the idea of a Big Ten move with Texas being in the west conference which we would dominate (Minn., Wisc, Northwestern, Illinois and Iowa). The Big Ten east would be killer (Mich, Mich State, Ind. Purdue, tOSU and Penn State). The academic affiliation would be much better.

I would hate to go to the SEC. Perhaps OU could look at them instead of Vandy. I don’t know what would happen to a&m, Baylor and Tech, but maybe they join up with UH/Rice/TCU like the old SWC.

by Wrangler86 on Feb 18, 2010 9:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Going independent is a non starter.

It may sound great right now considering our run of success but this is clearly something that even ND can’t pull off anymore. The current landscape of TV contracts dictate that university presidents will gravitate toward so called super conferences will be the ultimate money makers TV set wise.

Your tongue can't repel flavor of that magnitude!!

by UT2001 on Feb 18, 2010 8:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Oversimplification

I’m not going to touch the details of this until we get into the hoops offseason, but I’ve got two comments:

1) Okay, three. First, I agree with much of what you’re saying. The comment is appreciated.

2) The recent run of success doesn’t have a whole lot to do with the viability of the plan. The sustainable model being contemplated will look at many factors — Texas not sucking being one of them, but it’s at or near the bottom of the list. For one thing, ND isn’t proving that you can’t be Independent. ND is financially doing just fine, and they have a very diffierent AD model than we do. ND hasn’t been winning, but that’s not proven they can’t remain Independent. They can, they are, they have no reason to believe they can’t be. For another, demographics and growth changes of the last 30 years have changed Texas’ position, which was already strong to begin with, but has ballooned to super-mega status for reasons related to Mack Brown’s Renaissance, certainly, but also to the tremendous growth in Austin, Central Texas, and the state generally. And finally, as if our super-mega status needed an extra benefit, we have no competition for the many, many TV sets in our state. The game of football continues to thrive and remains a central part of the state culture, which is a good thing for all involved (including Texas), while there remain no big ticket TV-drawing programs with which Texas has to compete. OU gets some Dallas love, the Aggies some Houston love, but these are Texas’ two primary rivals, as likely to watch a Texas game as anything else. In other words: the TV market is big, and it’s not a crowded field. When you consider whether Texas can pull this off, you have to think about the unique circumstances that could make it possible, and assuming you find enough, decide whether they’re lasting. It’s at the very least more than a non-starter.

3) Last, I just want to note that the trend is as likely to run opposite as it is the way you’re suggesting. The overall trend is clearly a weakening of the TV networks; decentralization of entertainment and the rise of mobile entertainment have more slowly, but in similar ways, taken their tolls on TV networks like they have newspapers. The media used to be Gatekeepers — you needed them. Today? Far, far less so. What about 5 years from now? 10? If I had to guess, my money would be on technology and wireless/mobile distribution technology making the middle men increasingly less needed, and if they’re slow to evolve, obscure.

Let me ask you this: if you had to wager on whether you’d be watching Texas games brought to you by Texas, served to you on Google technology (or whatever the dominant in-home competitor in 10 years, if nor Google) that you use for most everything in your digital life, or on an ESPN channel, brought to you by Time Warner, making you overpay for stuff that you know can be produced and delivered to you both cheaper and better, which would you bet on?

You ain't hurt...

by Peter Bean on Feb 18, 2010 8:36 PM CST up reply actions  

You have written a lot of words

I’m gonna need to finish up my game of Team Fortress 2 before I can read it all.

Your tongue can't repel flavor of that magnitude!!

by UT2001 on Feb 18, 2010 8:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Great points. If I understand you correctly and I'm on my 2nd Stone IPA so probably not...

1) ND is “hurting” if you compare their TV contract with NBC to say the Big televen and the BTN. By not being apart of the Big 10 (or another major conference for football) they have missed out on lots of TV money. I just don’t see Tejas doing as well going independent with a TV contract as we could with say aligning ourselves with a power conference. Of course, that potential revenue will factor into our President and Regents decision. I understand our demographics are stronger than say the rust belt, but I’m just not sure we can pull in enough TV monies by ourselves that we could get from a conference situation. I guess I’m not saying we couldn’t pull it off, just that we’ll be much better off in a conference situation. That factored in with our academic compass toward the Big 10 and I think it would be enough to push us out of independent status talk.

I think the SEC/ESPN contract raises the bar in conference TV contract respects as does the BTN deal. While the overall decentralization of media and technology growth support the points you make, I believe the larger networks will pay uber money to the super conferences if say us, aggie,mizzou, and say Rutgers jump to the Big 10. I think the Pac 10 and SEC would have to respond creating super conferences who can demand more money from the big networks than ever before.

IMHO, I guess it’s not so much that TV networks will weaken as much as the very few conferences in existence will form larger conferences where only few networks can offer the full coverage e.g., ESPN, ABC etc… these super conferences will demand for their member schools.

Your tongue can't repel flavor of that magnitude!!

by UT2001 on Feb 18, 2010 9:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Hope you continue this discussion

This is a topic that makes me wish BON had a forum. Anyway, the subject of how emerging media impacts sports is very interesting to me.

I’ve always imagined that Notre Dame’s success stems mainly from its appeal to non-collegiate Catholics, which form a greatly expanded fan base. (Much like the military boosts Army and Navy.) Can Texas really command that large a fan base?

The problem often cited for enterprises such as a Longhorn Network is the weakness of marketing into the channel. ESPN games not only draw Longhorn fans, they also pull in fans through advertising and promotion that the Longhorn Network would not reach.

Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.

by Caradoc on Feb 19, 2010 8:23 AM CST up reply actions  

+Many

And there in lies the risk/reward so perfectly stated as pertaining to independence. $$$

The problem often cited for enterprises such as a Longhorn Network is the weakness of marketing into the channel. ESPN games not only draw Longhorn fans, they also pull in fans through advertising and promotion that the Longhorn Network would not reach.

New media is snazzy, but until there is a sales model that works better than, say, pop-up advertising not sure where the national sponsors will see a return on media $ investment for an independent go at it. I’m not suggesting a model will not evolve but clearly it is not yet in place and would be a stumbling block out of the chute.

"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable." - Tom Landry

by TXStampede on Feb 19, 2010 9:53 AM CST up reply actions  

How does broadcasting into Mexico play into this?

Does anyone know what kind of draw happens below the Rio Grande?

"I live in the tower with Coach Brown." -Bevo

by run Bevo run on Feb 19, 2010 8:37 AM CST up reply actions  

but why?

Why would UT take all the risk in starting its own cable network for a veiwership of the state of texas? how many households is that? 30 million? And why join the pac-10 who has a weaker tv deal than the big 12? I know that with UT and CU they could negotiate a better deal but would you really want half your games a PST and playing past midnight on the east coast with voters?
I believe that UT should join the big 10 if an offer is made. Yes it would be equal revenue sharing, and yes the geography is quirky, but there would only be 4 games out of TX per year. Plus with the B10 Network already has the infastructure for a network that if you add TX would be in something like 90 million house holds. It also made $242 million last year that was split between the 11 schools. Even if you don’t add money to that, by adding texas and a championship game every team will take home $21 + million in TV money.
Yes, UT is the richest athletic program in the contry but the TV contract is holding them back when Northwestern takes home more TV money than UT & OU combined.

by estranzPSU on Feb 19, 2010 2:30 PM CST up reply actions  

That's a huge mistake by the Pac-10 IMO
I know that with UT and CU they could negotiate a better deal but would you really want half your games a PST and playing past midnight on the east coast with voters?

I’ve always thought it was absolutely stupid that the Pac-10 plays so many late games. I mean, what is the purpose behind scheduling games that are 7pm Pacific? At that point, very few are concerned with watching college football. Put USC-Texas on at noon Pacific, 3pm ET, and you’re talking about a terrific time for watching football.

I have no idea why networks try to put the biggest games on TV on Saturday night instead of Saturday afternoon. The conventional wisdom that 7-9pm ET start times are “primetime” really only applies during the week, not weekends. Do people not go out and do things on Saturday nights?

I have beat wholesale ass for a whole lot less.

by burntorangehorn on Feb 19, 2010 3:04 PM CST up reply actions  

I agree with that assesment

I live on the east coast and the pac 10 night games are only seen in passing on bar tv’s with either no sound and just to see a score.

While you may be right about UT @ USC being a noon pst game but do you think UT @ Wazzu is a noon game? or a night game? My point was not that the best matchups wouldn’t be in prime time its that at least in the big 10 even the crappy matchups with IU and Northwestern are at noon central time and everyone gets to watch.

Additionally, if CU and the denver tv market go to the PAC 10 with Utah or BYU does Texas jump becasue it sees the writing on the wall that the Big XII is done for? Like www.franthetank.wordpress.com points out if the Big 12 looses denver and then lets Mizzou leave they loose alot of TV sets and how do you make more money on your TV deal with less TV sets?

by estranzPSU on Feb 19, 2010 3:09 PM CST up reply actions  

I live in Maryland myself...and no one here even knows that the Pac 10 exists

In fact, college football barely exists, unless someone happens to be a Penn State alumnus.

I read the wordpress article, and I disagreed with a lot of the conclusions and means to reaching them, but I definitely agree that the Big 12 is effed in the A if CU or Mizzou leaves, and even worse if both are gone.

I have beat wholesale ass for a whole lot less.

by burntorangehorn on Feb 19, 2010 3:31 PM CST up reply actions  

so..

In the situation that CU leaves, does Texas have to make a move to prevent itself from being in a Big East type conference?

by estranzPSU on Feb 19, 2010 3:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Not necessarily

Plug and play Utah if possible. That would bring in the SLC market to replace Denver with a negligible loss in revenue on the next TV contract. Go one step further and say Mizzou leaves taking with it the Kansas City and St. Louis markets. This creates a different situation if there is no TV market to replace those two. In this scenario assume Utah is already taken so you have to plug and play Arkansas or TCU. Thinking in 2009 terms and dollars the Texas AD budget might lose $5M or so from loss of TV revenue. AD revenue overall drops from say $80M to $75M. It’s still very manageable for Texas, maybe not quite as favorable for say Baylor or Tech. Point being TV revenue is only 15% or so of total AD revenue and it’s not going to be hit severely.

In any case Texas football continues business as usual. The collateral damage from the above scenario affects the Baylors and Techs a lot more than it does Texas if and only if the Big 12 is unable to better market its brand. If it’s able to negotiate an equal or better TV contract than the current one then the status quo is maintained.

The status quo is perfectly acceptable to me and I think many others. I’m not sure the loss (or more likely lack of increase) to the bottom line is significant enough reason for Texas to bolt the Big 12. I would prefer poaching somebody else’s teams and building the brand rather than be put in a position where we’re reacting to some perceived future weakness by scrambling to join another league. We should instead tell whoever leaves not to let the screen door hit them in the a$$ on the way out.

Now, if down the road, overall university funding becomes an issue then it might make sense to join the CIC or something similar. I don’t know why we couldn’t try that avenue now, the University of Chicago is in the CIC without an athletic affiliation. Regardless, the big bucks are in the research dollars. CU and/or UM leaving the Big 12 has a negligible affect to the university budget overall.

Just my thoughts.

"If worms carried pistols, birds wouldn't eat 'em"- Darrell Royal

by SpiritOfTheFedora on Feb 19, 2010 5:14 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd agree for the most part

But I’d prefer BYU to TCU.

I have beat wholesale ass for a whole lot less.

by burntorangehorn on Feb 19, 2010 5:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Would make more sense

"If worms carried pistols, birds wouldn't eat 'em"- Darrell Royal

by SpiritOfTheFedora on Feb 19, 2010 5:29 PM CST up reply actions  

No way . . .

. . . Arkansas can be plugged-and-played.

"Texas played without its best player for nearly 56 minutes. There's an asterisk." -- Ivan Maisel, ESPN.com

by Hopkins Horn on Feb 19, 2010 6:26 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not sold

First why would Arkansas leave all that SEC money for less money in the big 12, remember that most moves are driven by money. So lets assume that the big XII cannot poach any of the teams from the SEC.
Also, in your scenario your trading the #16, 21 & 32 media markets (denver, StL & KC respectively) for the #31 & 56 media markets (Salt Lake & Little Rock respectively) so how does that lead to more money?
And as the previous website commented, you can’t compare UT to Tech and A&M in terms of how much money they would lose, Texas direct competition is OSU, Florida & Alabama. Is UT willing to give those places $100-$150 million advantage over the next 10 years? ($150 million if i go by your assumption that they would lose $5m a year in addition to the $10+ Million from going to the big ten per year x 10 years)
Then add in the research money, the bump in academics from the big 10 or pac 10 and the TV revenues I still see UT in the big ten in 18-24 months…

by estranzPSU on Feb 20, 2010 8:30 PM CST up reply actions  

Not sure I said it would lead to more money

My point was that there are other options and TV revenue is not an overriding concern right now. I can’t tell you year over year how much AD revenues have increased but the budget at Belmont is not hurting. There’s also the option of increasing the Big 12 brand with a marriage to one of the ‘other’ networks much like the ESPN/SEC deal.

I was using Arkansas as an example, maybe a poor example unless there is truth to the innuendo that they aren’t entirely happy with the SEC. I agree with others that Salt Lake City-BYU and Utah territory- would make more sense.

I don’t share your view that we’ll join the Big 10 mainly because I think Powers realizes that TV revenue, 15% of AD revenues, should not drive conference affiliations and that the likely population shift in the future will occur away from the Big 10 rather than towards it. But we’ll see soon enough.

"If worms carried pistols, birds wouldn't eat 'em"- Darrell Royal

by SpiritOfTheFedora on Feb 21, 2010 12:12 PM CST up reply actions  

The TV angle

is key to all discussions on the matter. It has been well-documented that the Big Ten, with its own network and auxiliary deal with ESPN/ABC, has the biggest cash-haul per member of any conference. Texas, if it were to establish its own network, would be sure to get instant coverage in the Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin (obviously) and good deal of other lucrative markets within the Lone Star State and have the added bonus of not having to share that pile o’ money. However, if Texas were to join the Big Ten there is a potential gold mine that I am yet to see explored:

All conversation I have read/heard regarding increasing the reach of the BTN has been adding the huge population of Texas to the already-lucrative Big Ten footprint. What I haven’t seen is discussion about what happens when you have a conference that would include 10 of the 16 largest schools (undergrad enrollment, since grad students typically aren’t as invested in athletics) in the country? There are already enough Big Ten fans transplanted in places like Denver, Atlanta, Tampa and Phoenix to start discussions with cable companies picking up the network. If Texas and its hugely influential fanbase were added to the mix, potential markets could become all-but-certain markets. This is to say nothing of “small” markets that already exist in Big XII country. Do you think a conference that could promise Ohio State, Texas, Penn State and (if they ever get it back together) Michigan would have a tough time getting on TV sets in Kansas City or St. Louis? Just a thought…

Less memorable than Sam Okey's Hawkeye career.

by Kyle McCann't on Feb 20, 2010 12:46 PM CST up reply actions  

I don’t like either option of Big 10 or PAC 10. Too many long road trips.

We should just start our own damn conference. Little brother would definitely have to tag along, and most likely OU. Definitely kick out Tech, Baylor and Colorado. Only keep the viable programs and set up our own network. (The conference as it right now cannot even get a good tv deal together. Can Commish Bebee immediately.)

And no, TCU and Cougar High cannot join.

I’m not kidding.

by dimecoverage on Feb 18, 2010 7:09 PM CST reply actions  

Little Brother?

Ha ha you forget the years when A&M carried UT and Tech on its shoulders. If there is no Tech, no TCU, no Houston, who are we going to play with? Are you contemplating joining one of those conferences that only want texas for the Houston and metroplex Tv markets? Or are you thinking more on the lines of SEC in expansion mode opening up its doors to UT, A&M and may be Tech and OU

by YUMC on Feb 18, 2010 8:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Don't kid yourself dude.

ATM “carried” us when sports didn’t really matter and weren’t near the business they are these days. We’re Texas…..‘nuff said in regards to the tv markets and well, everything else. We don’t need tcu, uh, tech or atm for that matter. Consider yourselves lucky if your respective school gets to join the same conference as the Longhorns.

by SneezyBeltran on Feb 18, 2010 8:23 PM CST up reply actions  

In terms of money, academics and prestige, A&M has been and will always little brother to Texas. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. Bill Bryne knows it. It is just a fact. This isn’t being haughty or nasty, it just is.

The fact that Texas will not be able to make a move without A&M works in your favor. Don’t complain. The other Big 12 schools do not have that luxury. If we leave, they get screwed.

by dimecoverage on Feb 18, 2010 8:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Texas A&M by no means carried us,

or anybody else. The Aggies had a strong run from the mid-80s to the late-90s (roughly, 1984 or ‘85 to 1998). But that was football only, not in othe sports. And it’s not like they won every year, though certainly most of them.

Financially, we’ve always carried the banner. We put as many people in the stands at DKR-Memorial as the Aggies did at Kyle in those years. And we drew more fans at road venues like TCU and Baylor and UH (which were conference members at the time).

You wanna delve into the fantasy world? I’d love to. Create my own conference. Us, Aggie, the Oklahoma schools and, sorry to those opposed, Tech. Now, find seven more (five more, if you’re not a fan of a conference playoff game, which I’m not). I don’t know where you find 5-7 more. TCU, I could live with. SMU, N. Texas, Baylor, Rice, no way. Houston, if they follow through with what seems to be a financial/facilities upgrade, yes.

In my world, we pull LSU and Arkansas out of the SEC. That’s still just eight. TV numbers matter above all else, it seems to me, and there’s nobody else in this part of the country that has a lot of population. Not New Mexico, not Colorado, not Mississippi, not Kansas. Those are the next closest states in terms of mileage. And with that gargantuan SEC-ESPN Pact with the Devil package, you’re not prying LSU and Arkie away.

by edsp on Feb 18, 2010 10:40 PM CST up reply actions  

disagree on OU

we can always go back to playing them non conference as before. I really, a move like this will be to get away from the academic and research likes of the OU and K States of the world.

Your tongue can't repel flavor of that magnitude!!

by UT2001 on Feb 18, 2010 8:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Check out

 http://frankthetank.wordpress.com/

He really does the best job of exploring this issue on just about every point exploring every argument. The guy is top notch and comes at it from a Big 10 perspective. I hate to give too much credit to a lawyer from Chicago all points are included that anyone will need.

Your tongue can't repel flavor of that magnitude!!

by UT2001 on Feb 18, 2010 8:07 PM CST reply actions  

Memories

I can’t wait to see the soap opera play out on this. I was young and didn’t have enough of a grasp to understand it all, but I suspect we will witness a drama similar to that of the SWC break-up, but probably ten fold. Very different situation for sure, but definitely some resemblance.

Been posted here several times, but HERE’s that great recap on what happened between us, Baylor, Tech, Nebraska and Aggy in the creation of the Big XII.

by Infield Elephant on Feb 18, 2010 9:04 PM CST reply actions  

Besides the Legislature, another wildcard is . . .

. . . DeLoss Dodds. In his heart, what does he want?

(And ignore his recent non-explicit denials of interest in moving to the Big 10 when asked by reporters. He said what he had to say, whether Texas moves or not, and give no real insight into his thinking.)

Seems to me that it would be hard for Texas to move without Dodds doing some of the heavy lifting first. Yes, a lot of people further up the food chain and in the Legislature will have to approve it if Dodds wants the move, but if Dodds doesn’t want it, it seems like he could stymie the whole process and keep it from really gathering momentum.

On one hand, he’s nearing retirement (presumably), and successfully shepherding Texas into a newer and more viable conference, from a long-term viewpoint, could be the crowning achievement upon which he could cap his career and retire.

On the other hand, he’s a Kansas State grad, a Big 8 man. I have confidence that Dodds will do what he thinks is best for Texas, but it seems possible that, given his background, he believes that the Big XII is and will continue to be what’s best for Texas and will therefore not pursue a merger with the Big 10 as enthusiastically as would an AD with a degree from, say, Purdue.

"Texas played without its best player for nearly 56 minutes. There's an asterisk." -- Ivan Maisel, ESPN.com

by Hopkins Horn on Feb 18, 2010 9:22 PM CST reply actions  

I don't know exactly how much say Dodds would have in this

Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure he has a seat at the table and the president and regents wouldn’t want to screw up the finest athletic program in the country, but I’m wondering if a move to the Big 10 wouldn’t be b/c of sports specifically but really to raise our academic profile and gather CIC research monies. Sports would be a nice ancillary benefit in their eyes.

Your tongue can't repel flavor of that magnitude!!

by UT2001 on Feb 18, 2010 9:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I think we're on the same page here

Certainly, once a proposed move got to the regents level, issues beyond athletics kick in. I think my point about Dodds is that he is probably the one who needs to do the preliminary heavy lifting to get a proposed move far enough along in the process to be discussed by the regents, and if his heart subconsciously isn’t in it given his background, there may well never be anything for the regents to discuss.

Unless, of course, these sorts of moves start at a higher pay grade than Dodds and the Athletic Department, in which case, I think the odds of a move increase slightly.

"Texas played without its best player for nearly 56 minutes. There's an asterisk." -- Ivan Maisel, ESPN.com

by Hopkins Horn on Feb 18, 2010 9:57 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Yea I was thinking this move comes from above

Your tongue can't repel flavor of that magnitude!!

by UT2001 on Feb 18, 2010 10:03 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

The more I dig around tonight . . .

. . . I’m realizing the importance I was placing on Dodds was probably a bit too much. This thing already is above his pay grade.

One thing I’ve noticed as well is the number of people who are beginning to believe that this next round won’t take the easy road of mere adding a 12th team to the Big 10 and 11th and 12th teams to the Pac 10 but that there’s a pretty good chance that we could be seeing 14, or even 16, team conferences in the making in the very near future. Again, if that’s the case, that makes a UT move easier to contemplate since A&M could go along for the ride.

"Texas played without its best player for nearly 56 minutes. There's an asterisk." -- Ivan Maisel, ESPN.com

by Hopkins Horn on Feb 18, 2010 11:26 PM CST up reply actions  

And I like the link within the article . . .

. . . to this blog post from the Orlando Sentinel and the central role Texas will play: “The lines will be cast. If Texas bites, we’re all going to need a bigger boat.”

"Texas played without its best player for nearly 56 minutes. There's an asterisk." -- Ivan Maisel, ESPN.com

by Hopkins Horn on Feb 18, 2010 11:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Worst case scenario for the Big XII

Let’s say the Big XII loses some three-team combo in the next year or two – for example, Mizzou to the Big 10 and Texas and either A&M or CU to the Pac 10.

What happens to the Big XII? Does it even survive?

There would be two football brands (OU and NU) and one hoops brand (KU) left. That hardly seems like a viable conference from a TV revenue standpoint, and adding TCU and a couple of other mid-tier schools won’t change that one bit.

Does OU make a run for the SEC, perhaps paired with A&M if CU goes with Texas to the Pac 10, starting the run of increasing conference size from 12 to 14? And at the same time, would the Big 10 grab NU as well as Mizzou to try and get to 14 as well?

Let me rephrase the question: if you’re David Boren, what’s the best deal you can get for OU if the conference starts falling apart?

"Texas played without its best player for nearly 56 minutes. There's an asterisk." -- Ivan Maisel, ESPN.com

by Hopkins Horn on Feb 18, 2010 10:23 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

Are the B12 alternatives really better?

UT does just fine academically, and I’m skeptical about the benefits in that realm of an athletic conference membership (as noted by others above). The Pac-10 is simply a terrible conference for football – tepid enthusiasm in the best of times, small stadiums, etc. Even USC didn’t sell out all its home games this year. Having lived within a few miles of schools in three different PAC-10 cities, I can’t see how this would benefit UT. It’s a cultural difference, and that means something. Everything I can’t stand about Colorado makes them a perfect fit for the PAC-10, and would kill off the UT brand. Watch USC plummet after the NFL finds a popular team out there. As for the B10, for football purposes it’s a dinosaur – little national interest beyond their own often fading population bases. It’s true it has a larger population base, but it’s a different world. Talk of UT to the B10 seems to implicitly view the ACC as a sort of model, and I propose that the utter lack of any regional identity contributes to the lack of interest that’s shown for every ACC championship game. To me, anyway, combining Boston and Tallahasee is the sort of thing that appeals to bean-counters who look at cold, hard, numbers, but not to those who see why people get engaged in the essentially irrational thing that is following a team and a conference. Bean-counters are too “sophisticated” to see what really motivates people, and sometimes pay for this oversight. UT – Mich. St. is a great OOC game, but not a regular season matchup to get the blood running. Same with Michigan, really – fantastic OOC game, but the conference pairing makes no sense. Again, I’m surprised that no one has really looked hard at the ACC as a sort of symbol of potential pitfalls in such a move. Or maybe they have, and the 12 motions in limine I’m plagued with have prevented me from reading it. One or the other.

by Zonaman on Feb 19, 2010 2:27 AM CST reply actions  

From a football standpoint

I think the lack of interest in an ACC (football) championship game has a lot to do with Va Tech being the class of the conference for almost a decade. FSU has been largely irrelevant; Miami is only now recovering; UNC and Duke are both basketball schools; UVA suffered under the excitement that is Al Groh football for most of the 2000s, and only one of the half dozen BC alumni I know actually cares about college sports.

While I will readily agree that there is a cultural difference between Texas and much of the Big 10, most of it involves superficial things like favorite things to grill at a tailgate or miller vs. shiner. Michigan, OSU, Penn State, Wisconsin and Iowa are all rabid college football venues, and if you think a conference championship game between Ohio State and Texas wouldn’t sell out – perhaps the motions have gone to your head counselor.

Other than A&M and OU, which I suspect will not be leaving the schedule in any iteration – which team genuinely matters in terms of Big 12 football vis a vis Texas?

proud to swim home

by learned hand on Feb 19, 2010 11:18 AM CST up reply actions  

Wait...

Big 10 prefers Miller over Shiner?

by Infield Elephant on Feb 19, 2010 3:13 PM CST up reply actions  

I’ll have to do some more “research” to be sure. When does football season start again?

proud to swim home

by learned hand on Feb 19, 2010 4:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Good points, your Honor

The only conferences that can match UT in intensity are the B10 and the SEC. The SEC seems to be off the table, so the B10 is the only real choice. (it’s presumed I’m speaking about a football perspective). There’s a certain midwestern contempt for Texas and all places that have an accent that adds to the mismatch, but I suppose the same feelings may exist in Nebraska. Screw ‘em. I’m more startled to hear people actually consider the Pac10 to be a good fit – a worse idea I really can’t imagine.
As for the ACC, your points are valid, but VaTech has only won the title three times in the last decade, so it hasn’t been much of a domination. They’re good for a few conference losses every year – I don’t think that’s it. You’re absolutely right that many of the schools aren’t really good football schools, but the same could be said for Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota, and so on. Any conference with FSU, Clemson, and Miami should attract a certain amount of interest. I just don’t think FSU people are really motivated to beat BC, regardless of their records, and that has something to do with region. They just never think of each other.
OSU and UT are each going to sell out any games they play, and you’re right that it would be a big game any year, but I don’t share your certainty that UT would continue to play a full B10 slate, and then OU and A&M, as well. Even Nebraska and OU ended their regular series for the sake of conference scheduling, so who knows what would happen?
I’m just concerned about being a team that plays half its games in a different region and the rest at home – it’s easy to see how we lose our strangehold on the state. Right now, we’re a dominant fact of life in every corner of Texas. No way we maintain that in the B10. Membership would be a push factor toward becoming another nondescript state school (I’m not saying I think that would happen – it would just eliminate a unique characteristic of UT – utter domination of a great state).
Got an extension on the responses – that’s good, I guess. I get to work over the weekend.

by Zonaman on Feb 20, 2010 1:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Question for one of the lawyers

Suppose the SEC/ESPN marriage continues to gain steam in terms of TV revenue. That’s what mainly drives most of these discussions- points regarding TV markets and packages. Hypothetically, if the Big 12 were guaranteed the most lucrative TV package then the entire discussion of Texas conference shopping would be irrelevant.

What are the chances of an action against the SEC/ESPN succeeding under the Sherman Act? Or is this laughable? It does seem to be provide the SEC with an unfair competitive advantage versus say, the Big East.

"If worms carried pistols, birds wouldn't eat 'em"- Darrell Royal

by SpiritOfTheFedora on Feb 20, 2010 8:41 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm no expert on antitrust law, but I would say prospects are laughable.

I do know that the NCAA doesn’t have the antitrust exemption in broadcast rights that the NFL and other professional sports do, which is important. But the SEC doesn’t have a monopoly on ESPN broadcasts and ESPN is not the only national network that broadcasts football games. As I understand it, to violate antitrust laws, you either have to have an agreement that unreasonably restrains competition or an active cultivation of a monopoly. If the SEC made an agreement with ESPN that inhibited the broadcast of other conference games AND virtually all other national networks discontinued broadcasts of non-SEC conference games, then you might have something. Until then, you just have a lucrative contract that the SEC got because their product is, in business terms, better/more valuable. That’s not an antitrust violation in and of itself.

I welcome the thoughts of someone who has more than an extremely basic knowledge here.

by billyzane on Feb 20, 2010 1:43 PM CST up reply actions  

That's as good an explanation as I can think of

Although my knowledge of the subject is limited to a few cases and is thus only “basic.” The first practical issue in most any antitrust analysis is to distinguish unfair practices from simple success within a fair competition. The SEC appears to be succeeding because of the on-field product, whether we like to admit it or not. The SEC is just doing a great job at promoting the entire conference, which raises the ratings for any conference matchup. While we can’t stand their fans’ “SEC” chants, it’s the stuff that makes them a broadcaster’s dream. It’s a little akin to the “Motown” or “grunge” sound – it’s an identifiable product. Other conferences are shown on television, on the same channels, and there’s little to suggest that anyone is interfering with their ability to garner good ratings in these venues. This is a sloppy analysis, but the broad access to television that the other major conferences enjoy would probably preclude a serious antitrust suit.

by Zonaman on Feb 21, 2010 2:02 AM CST up reply actions  

Nebraska might enter into the equation

Some might argue more than A&M in terms of the overall Big 12 brand. Lots of championships and national interest there.

Also I think the cultural differences between Texans and Midwesterners are more than superficial. While Oklahomans dislike us because we are Longhorns, many Midwesterners dislike us because we are Texans. Likewise I think that the root of the Texas fan base in terms of TV sets- the people who shop at HEB, Fiesta, WalMart and Randall’s and/or drive pickup trucks blaring country or Latino music- relate more strongly to Baylor and Texas Tech or even Oklahoma State than they do to Ohio, Illinois or Indiana. In sports terms these people have no interest in playing Indiana. From an athletics standpoint this would not be a popular move.

"If worms carried pistols, birds wouldn't eat 'em"- Darrell Royal

by SpiritOfTheFedora on Feb 20, 2010 9:35 AM CST up reply actions  

Louisianans dislike us because we're Texans

That’s how we know we’re doing something right. While I agree that there’s a familiarity with Baylor and Tech, and a certain familial rivalry, I think Texas nationalism couldn’t be redirected.

The popularity will hinge greatly on A&M joining us (as the other primary draw in the state) but beyond that I think it will depend on how its presented to the people (I tend to think the average person will like anything that’s cleverly marketed – see every national election since the advent of radio). If it’s presented to the general Texas fan base as a blatant money grab it will not go over well. If it’s presented though a looking glass of Texas national pride “i.e. to show we’re the best we need to beat the best year in and year out” there will be excitement around the move. (This may play better for a Pac 10 move setting up a USC rivalry, but should work reasonably well against Penn St. and Ohio State). As far as the average Texas alumnus/alumna, I think the move may be easier to sell by adding the academic reputation angle.

If Texas does jump to the Big 10, I think Belmont will consider that an adequate increase of the national footprint for some time. I may be naive, but if politically selling the move and its increased revenue requires playing an OOC that consists primarily of Baylor, Tech, UTEP, Rice, Houston, UNT, SMU, TCU, OU (the RRS isn’t going anywhere), OSU is necessary to sell the move, it would be a more than even trade. After a few years the political firestorm will have moved on and people will be used to it, and we can start working Howard Schnellenberger back into the schedule.

proud to swim home

by learned hand on Feb 20, 2010 12:14 PM CST up reply actions  

At risk of being repetitive, Pac-10 = terrible idea

Sure, we’d get to play USC. That’s the only upside, really. It’d be a few B12 refugees joining a historic conference with a demonstrated culture. The Pac-10 doesn’t change because UT joins it, we just find ourselves out of step within a mismatched conference.
I have to go with Spirits on the cultural issue. It’s not just choice of beer. And while I agree heartily about Louisiana, I can’t join an argument that all other states are pretty much the same. That is, it’s not a Texas/not-Texas dichotomy (at least in this regard). New Jersey and Oklahoma both resent Texas for being Texas, but that doesn’t mean that they’re interchangeable conference partners.
Having done grad work at Notre Dame, I’m also perhaps paranoid about the “aspirational peers” concept that arose at ND in the early 90’s with regard to Stanford and the like. That lead directly to curtailing football, and has proven a permanent state of affairs for a variety of reasons. My takeaway lesson is that UT should be the best version of itself that it can, without trying to cut in on the action of a different model. That is, UT is UT, which is a school that has thrived in its base in and around Texas. Tossing that aside to chase dreams of being a “national” program and rubbing elbows with Wisconsin and Michigan is a recipe for disaster. While one may or may not disagree, the risks should at least be acknowledged. We shouldn’t ignore the ACC model, and the problems they’ve encountered. You’re right about the marketing angle being key, though I think it wouldn’t stem the larger problems with such a move.

by Zonaman on Feb 21, 2010 1:51 AM CST up reply actions  

I just keep smiling at the thought of A&M in the PAC 10. Imagine all those Aggies showing up to a game with Cal and seeing something like this.

by dimecoverage on Feb 19, 2010 3:28 PM CST reply actions  

I don't think they'd make it that far

I think they’d run into this and fall over dead:

(by the way, I found a link to one of those naked in the park protests…um, sun tea anyone? (NSFW)

I have beat wholesale ass for a whole lot less.

by burntorangehorn on Feb 19, 2010 10:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Moving toward the four 16 conference model

If things shake out as described, I think this could be the beginning of a movement to four 16 team conferences (and maybe it just happens for football?). This gives the big boys exactly what they need to have a playoff. They can limit the playoff to the 64 teams (or less, see below) in the 4 conferences, and not have to share the television playoff money with the UNLVs and Arkansas St’s of the world.

2 scenarios (one I had posted on another board I frequent):
Texas and texas A&M to Big Ten

Midwest Conference – Big Ten plus Texas, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Mizzou, Iowa St.
Wester Conference – Pac Ten plus Colorado, Texas Tech, Baylor, Nebraska, Kansas, KU
Southern Conference – SEC plus OU, Okie Light, Louisville and FLorida St.
Eastern (and very weak) – ACC (less FSU) plus Pitt, WVU, Rutgers, Syracuse and Uconn

Cincinatti and USF — Bye bye commuted schools.

In a scenario where UT and A&M go to the PAC 10, just swap them with the Kansas schools.

I could envision some conferences not wanting to go to 16 just to take on the likes of TTU, Baylor, Iowa St, Louisville, etc. as well, meaning this “elite” group could be even smaller. The NFL functions with 32 teams. Why can’t major college football do the same with 56 to 64 teams?

by A-Tex Devil on Feb 19, 2010 5:06 PM CST reply actions  

I'm just glad that the BON powers that be...

are mentioning the political card in all of this. My blog post on this (jokingly referring to Texas joining the Union being a mistake) started with the power of State politics. While going independent is tempting on the surface, it is not realistic in terms of the TV networks. I think Texas should led the way at cherrypicking some schools from conferences and re-forming a new super 14 true Southwest Conference.

For example:
- Arkansas / OU / OSU / KU / KSU / Colorado / Nebraska
-
Texas / Texas Tech / A&M / Baylor / New Mexico / Arizona or ASU / TCU
- Kick Mizzou & Iowa State out since Mizzou wants to leave anyway & ISU isn’t needed
-
TCU is just a throw-in. I am sure from a super conference standpoint there might be a better team (i.e. TV market) to entice to join than the Horned Frogs.

Anyway, I just think that Texas should be the center of the discussion and not a bonus to someone else’s plan. The program has definitely moved into an elite role in terms of national college sports & should be able to dictate the direction vs listening to a sales pitch.

Hook ’em!

"I've never gone into a game trying to win the Heisman Trophy; I go into a game trying to win." - Colt McCoy

by Robertpz on Feb 20, 2010 1:05 PM CST reply actions  

Sorry...

disregard the lines drawn. I am not so good at the formatting part! :)

"I've never gone into a game trying to win the Heisman Trophy; I go into a game trying to win." - Colt McCoy

by Robertpz on Feb 20, 2010 1:05 PM CST reply actions  

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