NCAA Tournament Projections 2/22
by awiggo on Feb 22, 2010 3:00 PM CST
in Texas Longhorns Basketball
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PrintMost seasons there are a two or three teams that clearly stand out from the rest. This year, I’d argue there are none. Kansas and Kentucky are solid, don’t get me wrong, but both are beatable teams. If your favorite team top 16 or even top 32, I doubt you fear the Jayhawks, the Wildcats, or anyone else. In a 40 minute game on a neutral court, anything can happen.
There are now just two weeks left in the regular season and another week of conference tournaments before Selection Sunday on March 14th.
The top teams are gunning for protected seeds in the these four regionals: Syracuse, St. Louis, Houston, and Salt Lake City. With no west coast teams vying for No. 1 or No. 2 seeds, the weakest No. 1 seed will be ‘protected’ but their regional location will be a long way from home.
First and second round sites include Providence, Buffalo, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, San Jose, and Spokane.
Here are my lousy guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament.
I will start posting my top seeds on Mondays. These are if the season ended today. They are listed by strength within each seed as well.
No. 1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue
No. 2: Duke, Villanova, West Virginia, Kansas St
No. 3: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, New Mexico
No. 4: BYU, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Butler
Next Four: Georgetown, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Temple
Big 12 Bids (7)
Lock: Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (6), Texas (6), Missouri (7), Texas A&M (7)
Likely:
Bubble: Oklahoma State (12)
Thoughts?
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Interesting that Lunardi moved Texas to a 5 seed from a 6 seed this week
We did lose last week…..right?
and we’re seeded higher than mizzou and baylor…….I’m guessing RPI, SOS, and key wins over Mich St. and Pitt play a role?
Best to hope for?
So what do we have to hope for? Figuring we split A&M/Baylor, does that get us back to 5? Would making the Big 12 tournament final get us up to 4?
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
Win out and get to a 2 seed in Houston
While winning out obviously appears unlikely, if we do, I think we could get back to a 2 seed. We already have better records than three of the 3 seeds, two 4 seeds (who we also beat) and only trail 2 seed West Virginia by one in the loss column. Plus, many teams will lose at least one or two more. Unfortunately, we are almost certainly one of them.
… you asked what we should hope for.
I would add that if this unlikely scenario unfolded..
we would need wins over K St and Kansas in the big 12 tourney to lock down a 2 seed. But at this point, I’m just aiming for a win against Okla state…….2 wins in a row would be a nice change for starters.
AW
Your thoughts on the Houston regional? Is there any chance Texas gets seeded to play in Houston? Unlike hayzer, I think a 2 seed is out of the question. Texas simply doesn’t play anyone else great to impress the committee, unless by chance they upset a Kansas team en route to a Big XII tourney championship.
What are the odds of seeing Kentucky in the South? I wouldn’t mind Kansas, but as a Kentucky fan on the side, they would be my obvious choice. I’m hoping that the lack of a strong 1 from the Pac 10 means Kansas will be defaulted out west.
The St. Louis Regional will be a battle between Kansas and Kentucky
the other should be slotted in the South. A Big East team should be a 1 seed………they’ll go in the Syracuse Regional. That means the lowest rated 1 seed should go out to Salt Lake.
well, those are my thoughts anyway.
Response
I think Kansas and Kentucky are likely to the get the top seeds in St Louis and Houston, unless one of them falls to the fourth best No. 1. Without other forces, I think Kentucky to Houston and KU to St. Louis is the most likely scenario.
But there are other forces.
I don’t think Syracuse can play in the Syracuse Regional, however. So, that complicates things. If Syracuse is the Big East team most deserving of a No. 1, then I’m not sure what happens. If the Orange are the fourth best, then Duke/Purdue stay east, Kansas and Kentucky stay St. Louis and Houston, and Syracuse goes west. But if Syracuse doesn’t is top three, then Kansas to St. Louis, Syracuse to Houston, Kentucky to Syracuse, and whoever is left to Salt Lake.
If Texas runs the table, they would be 11-5 in conference. They would have beaten three tourney teams (two on the road) in their final four games. The ’Horns would be the No. 3 seed in the Big 12 tourney and would still probalby need to win the tournament to get all the way back to a protected No. 2 seed.
I’ve got dark burnt orange glasses but that is not going to happen.
--AW--
I don't like to be a pessimist
but I’m just worried about UT getting into the tournament, much less what seed they will be. In remaining conf games they could go 4-0 or 0-4. I don’t think there are any guaranteed wins on the horizon. What kind of conf record do you think will be needed to be a “lock”? Will 8 do it or will it take 9? If 9, that means winning 2 of last 4. Already have losses to OK and Baylor, with an eke out win over A&M at home. OK St. would have been an “L” if Hamilton hadn’t had an unreal night in Stillwater. Loss of Balbay will make all of these remaining games even more challenging. Hoping for the best but still very nervous about each remaining game.
The Houston regional
I don’t even care about that. Does anyone remember the last time we were in that regional? We beat Stanford and got destroyed by Memphis. The point is the matchups are way more important. This year, I like our chances against Villanova (would be much better with Balbay), Syracuse, and Purdue.
On top of that, our “homecourt advantage” in Houston was more like a neutral environment. It was pretty embarrassing how little support we got from our fans.
by goingforthecorner on Feb 22, 2010 8:24 PM CST reply actions
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