Conference expansion prediction thread

The pollsters just don’t watch the game, then wake up the following morning to see if the team won. They won’t care if we were down 40 at the half….all that matters is the final score. They seem to do that with USC. Every year I wonder if anyone actually watches their games when they’re ranked in the top 5 for laying the smack down on Troy and Fresno St. It’ll work out better for us when we’re only beating Washington State by 3 at halftime but end up destroying their face in the second half.

thx, that has to be one of my favorite pix of all time, that and when VY score the game winner in the NC game

I couldn’t believe it fell apart, but the Big XII is obviously much better. Let’s hope that any re-shuffling will result in us being in a better conference.

The Pac 10 will definitely not let the Big 10 jump to 12 and a conference championship without doing the same. That would be a death wish for the Pac 10 if they were the only conference without a championship. Hopefuly they go after Utah, BYU and/or Boise State.

The really big issue is that if one of the other teams in the Big XII (Colorado, Mizzou, etc) makes a move to jump we (the Big XII) will crumble like a house of cards. It is almost like musical chairs. Nobody wants to be left out. We also have the politics of staying with Baylor, Tech, and A&M keeipng us from leaving them in a weak conference, but yet not having another conference wantig to take a package deal.

There’s an interesting essay in the winter New Directions for Higher Education by Kyle Sweitzer (of MSU, beware Big 10 propaganda) called “Institutional Ambitions and Athletic Conference Affiliation”. He examines the formation of athletic leagues from the Ivy League as an athletic conference between similarly purposed institutions in 1954, to your alma mater’s centennial conference. The basic premise is pretty intuitive, reputationally athletic conferences have a way of impacting academic prestige through association.

By way of my own example – If someone says SEC school the knee jerk response is football factory with dubious academics (with Vandy, UF or UGA serving as exceptions to prove the “rule”), if someone says Ivy League, the immediate response is top flight academics at a private school, if someone says Big 10 “Public Ivy” comes to mind. In other examples, there is no reason anyone would associate Kansas and UT outside of the Big 12. Kansas is a fine school, but that’s not an intuitive combination. Given this is coming from a trade mag for university administrators, the idea meets my sniff test as a departure point.

My general feeling is that a long term economic downturn will force institutions which cannot compete with “the joneses” to drop out of the arms race. Combine that with a desire to turn athletic departments into more direct PR departments (prestige matters, that much US news gets right) and revenue engines.

I’m not sure what the time frame will be, but I see something along these lines occurring over a long enough time frame.

To the Big 10:
Most likely – Texas, A&M, and Pitt.
Second Most likely – Any combination of Pitt, and Notre Dame, Mizzou, Kansas

The the Pac 10:
The unanimity requirement for conference expansion is problematic here. I think Stanford screwed up a decade ago, and now, looking at expansion Texas either Colorado and A&M are still the most logical picks – except now Texas has better cards.

If the Pac 10 makes it to 12, I’ll go with Notre Dame and Colorado as the most likely combination. The athletic rivalries are in place for ND, they already fly all over the country for football (and the Big East), and the Pac 10 increases their profile as a national university (not that they need it). I think the dollar would be better for the conference with the two Texas schools, but the politics of ND and Co are safer without undue sacrifice.

I see the Big 12 imploding.
 The revenue numbers have got to be close to maximizing their potential, and schools like ISU and Baylor can’t keep up with the football arms race against Mizzou, much less Texas. I see Baylor hopping on a life raft to conference USA and remembering what a winning season feels like. ISU forms a conference with ancient Sparta, Athens and Thebes and competes only in wrestling. They also aren’t getting overmuch from the affiliation. Bottom members can be replaced, but Colorado, Mizzou, Texas, A&M, OU or Nebraska would each be a separate flavor of death blow.

The SEC presents are real question mark, because I don’t see the Big 10 expanding without a counter by the SEC.
They’re not an academically aspirational conference (as outlined above), but they do have a strong foundation for revenue generation. They will only add a school which adds to that – and preferably without upsetting the football powers that be. Kansas is the best addition they could ask for, a basketball revenue powerhouse that institutionally doesn’t seem to care about football. They’re like Kentucky in mindset, and a few hours from Fayetteville in geography. I think institutionally, KU would prefer the Big 10, but I don’t think they get that chance.

I don’t see too much of this happening soon, but when the first domino falls the next will follow within a few years. I think Colorado or Texas will be that domino. Texas in particular because I see our greed as greater than most people on this board simply because no company becomes the highest revenue generator in their industry without an attention to filthy lucre and the intention to keep it.

The general feeling about Texas seems positive, but the public academic profile lags behind the institutions reputation I’ve encountered in academic circles. Tulane/Northwestern tend to elicit far more favorable responses as a general rule. I don’t know the public/private/law/undergrad distinction, but I have been surprised by what an academic afterthought Texas is to educated people in the northeast and midwest as compared to a UVA or Berkley.

I honestly don’t know how to answer your questions legit ’cause I know far too little about the legislative side of all this. However, I am fascinated with the different prospects mentioned here. In my dream world, I see a super-conference. With fog. And dragons.

I am glad the conference tourneys & NCAA tourney are starting up soon. Otherwise, if we have to talk about conference expansion/realignment all off-season, then Hopkins is going to go nuts. HH, there’s no way you can keep posting at this rate all summer long.

. . . wanting to play football in the snow = stupidity.