Note some additional info besides what's in the box score is listed below it:
Points in the paint-WF 42,UT 26. Points off turnovers-WF 7,UT 18.
2nd chance points-WF 25,UT 7. Fast break points-WF 10,UT 8.
Bench points-WF 28,UT 39. Score tied-7 times. Lead changed-5 times.
Last FG-WF OT-00:01, UT OT-02:05.
Largest lead-WF by 12 2nd-13:02, UT by 8 OT-03:04.
The one positive stat that stands out for us is winning the turnover battle convincingly (20-5). Knowing that, how is it that Wake Forest still had more fast-break points than us? We had 11 steals, and yet just 11 points off turnovers more than them... not exactly impressive given the turnover margin.
|Player (min)||+/-||+/- per min|
|Jordan Hamilton (32)||+18||+0.56|
|Avery Bradley (42)||+5||+0.12|
|Gary Johnson (32)||+4||+0.13|
|Matt Hill (4)||+2||+0.50|
|J'Covan Brown (22)||+2||+0.09|
|Dexter Pittman (21)||+1||+0.05|
|Jai Lucas (1)||0||0.00|
|Damion James (35)||-2||-0.06|
|Alexis Wangmene (4)||-10||-2.50|
|Justin Mason (32)||-25||-0.78|
The Overtime Collapse - What Went Wrong
Note the situation here. We're up by 2 possessions, so the worst case scenario is Wake hitting a three, which would automatically make it a 1 possession game even if we made all our free throws. Brown is the left-most Texas player in the picture. He had to make a split-second decision and obviously made the wrong one. You can see there was a Wake player under the basket due to the chaos of the UT defenders trying to find an assignment. Brown decided to leave an open three point shooter on his right so he could cover the man open under the basket. In this picture, I show Brown stepping away from the open shooter to help cover the player inside. Simultaenously, the Wake player at the perimeter with the ball sees the open shooter and passes it to him, and the three is good. Really J'Covan? Why would you intentionally allow an easy chance for a three just so you can prevent a two?
Passing the ball when you're the best FT shooter on the team - I also took a relevant screen shot of this situation.
The issue here is J'Covan simply froze once he catches the inbounds pass and essentially allows himself to get doubled where he's forced to pass the ball. In this picture, he had just caught the pass. As you can see with the arrow I drew, he clearly had the opportunity to advance the ball, and looking at the video - it was much before the double team arrived. The simple question is what was he thinking? Why did it seem like he was stuck in cement? Was it a lack of concentration? Was he scared of dribbling and possibly turning it over? Did he not want to shoot the free throws? Either way, waiting to get doubled and then passing to Johnson was another example of not recognizing the situation. It wouldn't be a reach either to say he demonstrated poor leadership from a point guard, which is a critical element we'll need from him going into the future. As our best free throw shooter, he should refuse to pass the ball in that situation and not allow another teammate to shoot those freebies. Ideally, our PG is the floor leader and represents the coach on the floor. Can we say this yet about Brown? Not even close IMO. It's going to be interesting to see how much he can grow from a leadership and IQ standpoint in the offseason. Will Barnes and his inexperienced staff be able to give him the valuable coaching he needs to grow?
I tried to take a screen shot of what I thought exhibited the most contact (not sure why the Wake player looks like a big black blob). Looks like most of the contact was above the heads. It was two players fighting for a rebound, with neither player committing any kind of act that would give them an unfair advantage. Considering how referees normally swallow the whistle in crunch time, I was disgusted at the ref calling a foul on this play. Not only did it DQ James, but the Wake player sunk both free throws with the clock stopped. LET THEM PLAY!
So in summary, after we went up 8 points in overtime, a comedy of errors including poor substitutions by Rick Barnes, a defensive meltdown allowing an open three, fouls (one undeserved) leading to free points for Wake Forest, missed free throws by Brown and Johnson, and Brown passing up free throws, along with some bad luck led to a spectacular collapse and tournament elimination.
Before I wrap this up, I wanted to see how our Pomeroy offensive and defensive efficiency numbers changed throughout the season. If you go to Texas' Pomeroy page, you can calculate the raw offense and defense efficiency since you have the score, and the number of possessions in the game. I put the numbers in a spreadsheet and plotted the values:
This is a moving average of our raw offensive efficiency in blue and defensive efficiency in red (for example, at game #20, you're looking at our efficiencies after all 20 games, not just the 20th game. To calculate this, it's points scored divided by # of possessions X 100. Same goes for defense. Remember: higher the offense line, the better. The lower the defensive line, the better. Nothing of shock value here. I did want to point out how losing Balbay effected us, as I pointed out on the plot. When he left, our raw defensive efficiency was about 90 (would rank in the top 10 nationally). A few Baylor games later with no Balbay, it ended at 93.6 (ranked #32).
Out of curiosity, I wanted to put our recent stretch in a more proper context with regard to these raw efficiency stats. I put the 17th win vs A&M in the "bad" section since it was such an ugly game.
First 16 games
Offensive efficiency: 114.6 (would currently be ranked #9)
Defensive efficiency: 83.5 (would currently be ranked #1, and the #2 team would be a full 5 points behind!)
Last 18 games
Offensive efficiency: 103.1 (would currently be ranked #141)
Defensive efficiency: 102.9 (would currently be tied with 3 other teams at #215)
LOL! Essentially, we weren't even an NIT quality team starting with the A&M game. A lot of explanations come to mind. Our nonconference schedule was insanely overrated. While we played a few good opponents, there were a number of cupcakes that inflated our efficiency stats. Also, Big XII play slapped us silly.
Well, this wraps up what's probably my last fashionably late fanpost on Texas Basketball for a good 7-8 months. On to baseball and football! Ah, it's great to be a Longhorn.
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