NCAA Tournament Projections and Bubble Watch
by awiggo on Mar 7, 2010 9:00 AM CST
in Texas Longhorns Basketball
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PrintSelection Sunday is just more than a week away. After another disappointing road tilt for the Longhorns, I figured I'd distract myself by looking at the NCAA tournament instead of lamenting for the 1,724th time the play of my ‘Horns.
Below is where I think we are in terms of NCAA berths.
Big East (8): Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame
Big 12 (7): Kansas, Kansas St, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
ACC (7): Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Big 10 (5): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois
SEC (4): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida
Atlantic 10 (4): Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Rhode Island
Mountain West (4): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Conference USA (2): UTEP, UAB
Of those listed above Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Florida, Rhode Island, San Diego State, St. Mary's, UTEP, and UAB would be well served by winning a game or two in their respective conference tournaments. If any of them are bounced early, it will be a long wait on Selection Sunday.
One bid leagues (22): Pac 10, America East, Atlantic Sun (E Tennessee St), Big Sky, Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley (Murray St), Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, and WAC.
A closer look at the bubble after the jump.
The Bubble is really weak this season. Usually, we are talking about 15+ teams for the final eight spots or so. This year even getting to fill the full 65 team field is a bit of a stretch. The ten teams listed below are currently on the outside looking in. None of them really deserve a berth though, and in a typical year, they'd each be much further away from the Dance than where they currently sit. Each team probably needs to win two or more games in their conference tourney to be given legitimate consideration for an at-large selection.
Bubble Teams currently out (10):
Big East-Connecticut, Seton Hall
Big 12-none
ACC-none
Big 10-Minnesota
SEC-Mississippi State, Mississippi
Atlantic 10-Charlotte, Dayton, St. Louis
Mountain West-none
West Coast-none
Conference USA-Memphis
Pac 10-Arizona State
Missouri Valley-none
Bubble Team Rooting Guide:
Bubble teams and those last few teams currently in need to root for Butler (Horizon) and Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley). Both teams are probably in even if they don't win their conference tournaments. If they do lose, the Horizon and the Missouri Valley will send two teams to the NCAA tournament and two at-large berths will disappear.
The other interesting team to probably root for is Cal. The Pac 10 has been so bad this year that it is unclear if the Golden Bears would earn an at-large berth should they not win the Pac 10 tournament. They probably would, though.
The last team whose case is an interesting one is Utah State (WAC). The Aggies are 13-2 in conference and 24-6 overall. Their RPI is decent at 34, but their strength of schedule is just 104 and they are only 1-1 against the RPI top 50. If they were to lose in the WAC tournament, they may be the team that mid-major apologists scream about on Selection Sunday.
I'll try to post this again mid-week and one final time before the brackets are announced.
Your thoughts?
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Beef: It's what's for dinner
Not bad on the locks, but I still have some beef with your analysis. For one, how is UAB in the 64 after being swept by Memphis and with only 1 top-50 win, while Memphis is on the outside of the bubble. Those two should be reversed, with Memphis a fringe NCAA team and UAB on the outside looking in. Also, how is Rhode Island in from the A-14 when they just got beat by St. Louis yesterday? I’d be very surprised if more than Temple, Xavier, and Richmond go from that conference. I would say that GA Tech doesn’t deserve to be in with a sub-500 ACC record unless it goes deep in the ACC tourney (not likely, given its putrid road record). Florida and Illinois are both a little iffy as teams also, as is San Diego State and St. Mary’s. Even Wake Forest is looking a little shaky unless it can win today and/or get a win in the ACC tourney with its recent swoon.
But my biggest beef is this: why are Seton Hall and Connecticut on the bubble if USF isn’t. In case you didn’t see, UConn got manhandled in Tampa yesterday by USF, and its bubble hopes are toast. Switch out the Bulls as the final Big East team with bubble aspirations. This year’s bubble doesn’t look all that impressive at all, though.
You nailed it
with your last sentence. In a typical year, Ga Tech. UAB, Notre Dame, Florida, Illinois, etc are all probably on the outside looking in. Not this year, though.
We have to get to 65 and a handful of undeserving teams will be in the tournament.
Yeah, Rhode Island didn’t do itself any favors yesterday and is probably the last team in as of this morning. Memphis is close. As far as swapping Memphis and UAB, I could see that. They are close by resume. C-USA probably gets two of their top three (Memphis, UAB, UTEP) with the conference tournament doing the sorting for us.
--AW--
I can see that...
…whichever two teams from C-USA that make the final out of the top 3 would make the NCAA’s in a down year like this one. I can also see that a semi-finals appearance in the MWC tourny would probably be good enough to put both UNLV and SDSU in the NCAA’s (with UNLV a bit more safe since they are playing at home for the whole tourney). I’ll be playing close attention to the WCC semifinals tonight, since if both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s win then St. Mary’s has probably sewed up a bid as well as an at-large (since Gonzaga is already a lock). Hopefully UNI and Butler win as well so no bids get stolen, as you say. I was really disappointed with Mississippi State last night—the way they got behind so much so early just about ended their at-large chances.
by Nathan Albright on Mar 7, 2010 10:11 AM CST up reply actions
Can't we just get to 96 teams?
Can you imagine if the NCAA has its way here? Dear God…the regular season will actually mean zero. Squat. Nada. I literally will cease watching games until March. Would be interesting to see you put together a list of those that would be included in this “super boring tournament.” Does the NCAA realize that the first two days of the tourney are the best? Do they know that they will essentially kill that thrill if they expand to 96 teams?
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." ~ Will Muschamp
""I always felt like, and I paid a price for it, that it didn't seem right for one guy to bring me down." ~ The Tyler Rose
by Mulliganville on Mar 7, 2010 10:26 AM CST up reply actions
4,096 Teams
From last year. Oldie but goodie:
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/ncaa_expands_march_madness_to
by Infield Elephant on Mar 7, 2010 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
Can't bring myself to do it
I think expanding to 96 is a horrible idea. I get that it would help the NCAA make more money. Other than that, it doesn’t make any sense to me. Even in good years, there are 75 teams worth of Dancing, no where near 96. Lots and lots of teams sub .500 in their leagues would be safely in the Dance. That is pathetic—kind of like watching two 6-6 teams collide in a mid-December bowl game. Boring.
The first four days (Thursday-Sunday) of the NCAA tournament are my favorite sports days of the year. And it’s not even close.
--AW--
I'm with you, AW
I love the nonstop coverage in the early rounds. You jump from one close game to the next, from morning till midnight.
Frankly, I think we have too many at-large bids already. If some high-profile team with an 8-8 conference record doesn’t make it, then too bad. To get in, you can win your conference, win your tournament, or rank in the top 25. If you can’t manage any of those, then there’s the NIT. Sixty four is the right number.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
PAC 10
When was the last time the Atlantic 10, Mountain West, West Coast, and Conference USA got more teams in than the PAC 10?
Horns...
Will the Horns be the first team in NCAA history to go from #1… to unranked in the regular season?
by Dawnpatrol on Mar 7, 2010 10:21 AM CST via mobile reply actions
3rd I believe
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." ~ Will Muschamp
""I always felt like, and I paid a price for it, that it didn't seem right for one guy to bring me down." ~ The Tyler Rose
by Mulliganville on Mar 7, 2010 10:28 AM CST up reply actions
and no matter what, this is all this season will be remembered for.
unless the horns make an unexpected run deep in the big 12 tourney or march madness tourney.
Rough Seeding
I did this pretty quckly and definitely didn’t take ever factor into consideration. However, here is roughly where we are:
No. 1: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke
No. 2: Purdue, West Virginia. Ohio State, Kansas State
No. 3: New Mexico, Michigan State, Villanova, BYU
No. 4: Baylor, Pittsburgh, Butler, Temple
No. 5: Wisconsin, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
No. 6: Maryland, Xavier, Texas A&M, Northern Iowa
No. 7: Gonzaga, Marquette, UNLV, Richmond
No. 8: Texas, Missouri, Clemson, Wake Forest
No. 9: Oklahoma State, Louisville, Clemson, Florida State
No. 10: California, St Mary’s, Illinois, UTEP
No. 11: San Diego State, Florida, Va Tech, Old Dominion
No. 12: Rhode Island, Georgia Tech, UAB, Notre Dame
--AW--
what do you think are the best & worst outcomes for Texas seeding wise?
win big 12 tourney, our seed is?
lose to iowa st., our seed is?
Hmmm
Win the Big 12 tourney would mean beating Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas. We’d add three RPI top 25 wins over three days. Add that to the fact that Texas was once No. 1 in the country, played in the top league in the country, and that the top 16 teams are not that formidable, I’d say we could get as high as a No. 4 seed.
Lose to Iowa State and we’ re looking at a No. 9 or 10.
More realistic sceanario and one that would help out seeding wise would be to beat Iowa State and Baylor, play K St tough, and sneak back to a No. 6 seed. The No. 6 draws a No. 11 in the first round and then gets the No. 3 seed in the second. That is my best case / realistic scenario to get into the NCAA Sweet 16.
--AW--
I am prepared for...
one and done. This team is simply just not that good as a team. Individual talent abounds…but as a team, they are in infancy, and we are in March. I think they will beat Iowa State, lose to Baylor, and will be seeded 7th or 8th in the tourney. I then predict a one and done. I sure hope I am wrong.
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." ~ Will Muschamp
""I always felt like, and I paid a price for it, that it didn't seem right for one guy to bring me down." ~ The Tyler Rose
by Mulliganville on Mar 7, 2010 11:32 AM CST up reply actions
Just enjoying March
AW, I hear you on trying not to dwell on the collapse of the Horns in what has been possibly the hardest season to watch of any team I support. A couple weeks ago, I had to step back and swallow it, and just enjoy it for it is. I like to pretend this team never was a preseason #2, mid-season #1 or 17-0; this helps me come closer to enjoying it. As with most other seasons in my lifetime, I tend to look at the field as a whole anyway. Of course, I’ll root for the Horns but it’s so fun to watch your entire bracket(s) come to fruition (or bust). That said, can we expect a BON pool?
Heart pick (UT not inc): Syracuse / Head pick: Kansas. I do know that I don’t want K-State going deep, although they are more than capable.
by Infield Elephant on Mar 7, 2010 10:58 AM CST reply actions
Strange Hearing
“Weak bubble” and UCONN not making it. That cheered me up somewhat. At least we are going to the dance – even if 1 and done.
by realmccoy on Mar 7, 2010 11:58 AM CST via mobile reply actions
I Know we Suck
But that Baylor club really impresses me. They seem to really play with passion and enjoyment. Horns could surprise – but they just look lost, robotic, and lifeless. Think Barnes broke the teams spirit – and vice versa. Everyone will learn from this and we will get it straightened out next yr
by realmccoy on Mar 7, 2010 12:02 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Illinois is out
13 losses. 5 losses in the last 6 games. Just lost at home by 15 in a must-win situation.
Only way they get in is if they win the Big 10 tourney or possibly in if they lose in the final after knocking off 2 of the top teams (Ohio St, Mich St, or Purdue)
by 7Swords of Salat on Mar 7, 2010 3:00 PM CST reply actions
Memphis (23-8)
if you have UAB in, Memphis has beat UAB twice and won 7 of their last 8. Memphis finished 2nd in C-USA. UAB finished 3rd.
by 7Swords of Salat on Mar 7, 2010 3:34 PM CST up reply actions
A good pick
The only thing that Illinois can point out is their record against RPI top 50: 5-8 vs 3-2 for Memphis.
while Illinois has played a tougher schedule...
I just can’t see the selection committee putting in a 14 loss team over a team like Memphis.
by 7Swords of Salat on Mar 7, 2010 4:40 PM CST up reply actions
I agree, but I am wondering if it is the name that makes me think it
If Tulsa had the same record would this be a shoe in?
Not done
in trouble, though. They need to win at least one in the Big 10 tourney, probably two, depending on how the mid-major conference tounaments go.
Northern Iowa just won so the Missouri Valley will only get one bid. That is one at-large bid saved.
Butler, Old Dominion, Cal, and Gonzaga or St Mary’s are the other teams to root for if your Illinois, Notre Dame, Rhode Island, etc.
--AW--
Old Dominion in trouble... down by 2 with 3 mins left
by 7Swords of Salat on Mar 7, 2010 3:51 PM CST up reply actions
ODU
Pulled it out in OT.
My dad’s a former tribesmen though, so hoping for an upset there (they did win at Maryland and Wake Forest this year).
yeah, great game.
the CAA is always solid… year in and year out, that tourney is great
by 7Swords of Salat on Mar 7, 2010 4:34 PM CST up reply actions
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