Realignment Chronicles: That Upon Which We And Mike Leach Might Agree

http://collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/05/report-nebraska-mizzou-invited-to-big-te.html

But yeah, same category for me.

That is the proper response to that news item. “Believe it when I see it.”

the illogical number of four

It’s a power play that is likely to have not been closely followed by fans of the Big XII. Nebraska and Mizzou, OK, we all get that. But if (and that’s a huge if these days) the report is correct, the Big Ten would be inviting four teams with a very clear intention; to force Notre Dame’s hand, once and for all.

Let’s back up. The cat has been out of the bag for a while that the Big Ten is likely going really big to the tune of 16 schools. The writing is all but on the wall that Nebraska, Missouri and Rutgers would join in a heartbeat if invited to apply. That brings the total to 14. The effect on Notre Dame here is interesting. The doomsday scenario for the Irish is where the cover of the Big East is blown away by the Big Ten ripping the league apart and stripping its most valuable football schools away. If the already fragile league were to sustain the loss of Rutgers and any two from the pool of Syracuse, Pitt or UConn two things would be accomplished: 1)The Big East would cease to exist as a BCS conference as no available replacement schools could maintain the league’s BCS status (and schools like WVU, Louisville and South Florida [Cincy, you’re SOL] would likely be snatched up by the ACC) 2)The non-revenue affiliation the Irish hold with the conference would be greatly devalued with the loss of the largest, most powerful institutions in the conference. Because WVU, UL and USF (and the odd man out in the UConn, SU, Pitt trio) would almost all certainly end up elsewhere, Notre Dame would be left standing in a league of small, Catholic schools with a lot of prestige, but not much real power.

Here’s where the number 4 is interesting. It is meant to give Notre Dame a sense of self-determination, or in other words, appeal to their sense of pride. Clearly the Big Ten is not going to stop at a 15-team league. In leaving an extra space open for the Irish, they will be presenting simultaneously the carrot and the stick; “reject us again and forever have the door to conference membership closed on you, or come aboard and have a say on the last school.” That’s the kicker. The Big Ten wants ND so badly that they will essentially allow the Irish to pick the 16th member. Almost certainly, Notre Dame would choose the ever fickle, totally worthless (but rather competitive in everything from academics to athletics) Boston College. And that’s why a 4-team invitation isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds…or it’s complete bullshit. Who knows.

I don’t care if the Big 10 brings in 10 more teams…it ain’t gonna help their football. They’re on the road to suck

Becoming the first conference the beat four teams ranked 16th or higher in bowls last year (including two conference champions) must really show the suck. College sports are cyclical. I’ll be glad to pop back in later this year to remind y’all of this time-proven fact.

Afterall – what is more fun? Being the big brother that can’t be lived up to and that continually rub little brothers nose in his own inferiority? Or just a really good only child that could be perceived as arrogant?

I have a big soft spot for the Big 10, but I think the Pac 10 may be more amenable to unequal revenue shares if there is Texas money on the table (with one huge caveat below). How unequal is a different question (first 75% distributed pro rata and the last 25% paid according to some formula would be a possible starting position).

My thoughts go something like this, the two conferences Big 12 and Pac 10 are under-preforming compared to economic potential of markets (I’m defining potential by share of the US economy and population). The SEC borders appears to be outperforming. The Big 10 is an odd beast, because they control a significant portion of the distribution chain, which I think is enticing to Texas, despite noise about a Longhorn sports network – seriously, that’s a LOT of capital and risk folks.

But I think it becomes problematic in that Texas represents more value (at least in terms of relative economies) than the next two largest Big 10 states combined. The Big 10, has arrived at their kumbaya revenue sharing arrangement at least partially through the lack of a dominant member. No school was bringing a market such that it could be on the look out for greener pastures and possibly be stronger away from the whole. Northwestern is the weak sister, but happens to be the closest to the largest population center and brings a lot of academic cred/money (so, nothing at all like Baylor). Would Texas want a higher distributive share of revenue generated on the Big 10 network? Would that be a deal breaker? I don’t know, but when the leg. gets involved…I think their minds horizons could easily be that narrow.

Texas and California may be closer to peers, and California is the only US region that dwarfs Texas in terms of economic output (about 150% of TX). In that respect, I think if Texas can convince California to eschew equal revenue sharing, the PAC 10 will have the best argument from a pure sports revenue standpoint. The only way this works though, is if the dollars are big enough for USC/UCLA/Cal to threaten to leave the conference or instill unequal sharing regardless of the admission of Texas, because if Texas plays the unequal revenue share card the unanimous vote requirement will kill the deal unless that’s the only alternative for the Non-Cali schools (and probably Stanford).

Does Texas need unequal revenue sharing? No, but my assumption is that the decision makers are too accustomed to having their backs scratched.

from Osborne all the way down to t-shirt fans in Grand Island, is composed of a bunch of whining crybabies who resent Texas, who resent the academic standards we imposed on them, who resent having to fly all the way to frickin’ Dallas if there’s business at the conference HQ, and who resent all the times we’ve bested them on the football field, the one place on which NU felt confident they could best us when the Big XII was founded, and they would like nothing better than to suck their thumbs and move to another conference and get away from us

I’m going to enjoy Nebraska getting a Big 10 invite with a caveat for reduced revenue from the Big 10 network and the requirement they raise academic standards.

Is the magic number. My assumption that is if you’re Texas, you want to make your decision in 2015-16, and not before. Whether it’s LSN, another conference, or anything else — technology is a (grossly underdiscussed) factor in this — Texas doesn’t want to decide anything right now. I assume they’ll stand pat, so long as dominoes don’t start spewing every which way.

If a true “journalist” cites a an anonymous source, then people tend to believe it is credible. For instance, when GBR tells us some juicy bit of recruiting news-we tend to believe it because he values his credibility as a journalist and wouldn’t say he heard from a ‘reliable anonymous source’ if the source was really just 5th hand gossip.

On the otherhand, non journalist douchebags like Thayer Evans and the NYT will run stories knowing that the information is false because they don’t care about their reputation or credibility.

The value of the “anonymous source” is based on the credibility of the person revealing it.

A few months ago Georgetown Law Professor Peter Tague put the theory to work by telling his 1L class that he heard Chief Justice John Roberts was retiring for health reasons. http://abovethelaw.com/2010/03/everybody-learns-a-lesson-from-georgetown-professor-peter-tague/

(Sorry. Sarcasm meter: OFF)

. . . my source, speaking about disaffected alumni at one of the schools which was left out, said that these alumni “blamed Richards, but I don’t think she cared enough about football to involve herself.”

And I’ve discussed my belief that the involvement of Ann Richards is just an urban legend here and here.

Pecos, TX?

Plus, some old rivalries.
Keep Oklahoma, A&M, Tech, Ok. Lite, Colorado/Nebraska
Add Arkansas, LSU, Ole/Southern Miss

Half in and Half out (other sports but not football) are partially to blame. They should stop that being used stuff and demand football too.

and numerous, humorless aggies openly moaning for the sec while very, very few longhorns see the sly sty conference as even a remote possibility for us speaks volumes of what wrong with a&m and what’s right with texas.

Joining the SEC isn’t bringing him back to A&M

…but I’d be willing to bet a considerable sum that the door would be shut in your face in all but the most radical realignment schemes imaginable.

No, I would say “Hey Dude, your dropping c-notes.”

Thus, the diffrence between the worlds of Hance and Leach vs. the worlds of DeLoss Dodds and Mack Brown.

Seriously Tech fans, not sure what will happen to you. I’m actually more worried about the Tech/Aggie and Baylor folks in all this mess than Texas.

http://insidetexas.com/
SEC isn’t really a good fit because our academics are so much better. Other than loving football we have little else in common as a conference match.
The Big 10 is the best fit academically, but Pac 10 is still the more likely place for us.

Nebraska is going to be key. They hate being second fiddle to Texas and they are looking to get away from us. If the BIg X offers them and Mizzou, they will likely jump. Big X may be looking east instead.
Maybe the Pac 10 and Big XII will do a super merger.

I think most aggies identify with the deep South more than Texas fans do. You’d have to drag me kicking and screaming into the SEC.

To your point above- Why are we giving up on the Big 12? I think the silent majority of Texas fans are not giving up on the Big 12, at least until a new TV contract is negotiated. And as much as I hate to admit it, we (maybe most of us) kind of like having you around to pick on. I think whatever happens we’ll remain in the same conference.

I can see us playing Georgia or Florida for the Championship game

I chuckled.

And Arizona isn’t shabby.

Tech and UH may be able to catch the bottom end, but considering the legislatures current plans, they won’t achieve tier one status in the next several decades.

Nebraska already has pretty much dwindled and OU is on a downward sprial (imo).

The real issue is media markets. OU has a huge local following because they have no pro football team (ever since the layoffs at Big Red Motors. But, I don’t think they have the national power of Texas/A&M for a Media Market revenue source.