Texas Baseball Makes a Serious Statement; One Win From Johnny's House
The Longhorn bats woke up on Saturday, exploding for 14 runs against the TCU pitching staff. ESPN color commentator Nomar Garciaparra wanted very badly for Kevin Keyes' alleged elbow to the TCU first baseman on a play that plated Texas' first 2 runs in the 2nd inning to be a big deal, but the Longhorn hitters made sure there would be no doubt and no controversy as to today's outcome. Taylor Jungmann was very Taylor Jungmann-esque, working into the 9th inning and allowing only 6 hits and a single run. Meanwhile, much-heralded TCU starter Steven Maxwell didn't make it out of the fourth--although none of the 5 runs he surrendered were earned.
Texas then proceeded to tee off on the Frog bullpen, finishing with totals of 14 runs on 14 hits--including a fantastic 7-run rally in the fifth inning that essentially put the game out of reach at 12-0. Leading the offense's explosion was Tant Shepherd, who was 4-for-5 including a homerun to left that was absolutely mashed. Cohl Walla went only 1-for-6 in the leadoff spot, but the "1" was huge: a bases-loaded triple to score three in the monster fifth inning.
Jungmann comes off the field after another stellar outing
The TCU fielders gave the Longhorns some important help, committing three errors leading to six unearned runs for the Burnt Orange. That could be a good sign for tomorrow--if the adage is true that errors come in bunches, any hit to TCU's confidence defensively bodes well for Texas.
At the end of the day, a blowout like this is no different for tournament purposes than the Frogs' hard-fought win yesterday. It only counts for one, and the Longhorns still have an awful lot of work to do if they want to be around for the closing of Johnny Rosenblatt Stadium. Still, a 14-1 pounding does send some messages: specifically, you don't come through Austin and advance without a fight, we're still Texas and you're still TCU, and anything less than your A-game won't do the trick against the Longhorns. Texas now stands poised to break the Horned Frogs' hearts yet again if they can play well with their backs against the wall for a second straight game. It is certainly encouraging that in the first contest all year where Texas simply had to win, they came up with one of their best performances.
Brandon Workman will take the hill on Sunday as he has done so many times this year to try and pitch Texas back to Omaha where they belong. As was noted in today's broadcast and several places in the comments, Chance Ruffin has also pitched exactly zero innings so far against TCU--which means both Workman and Ruffin are available to throw as many pitches as needed. That should mean Texas won't need 14 runs to win. And that's very good news as TCU will throw yet another 11-1 starter with a stellar ERA in Kyle Winkler. So Texas will need to come out with just as much intensity and focus as they did today in order to take this super regional.
The deciding game takes place Sunday at 3 PM CDT on ESPN. Our understanding is that home/visitor is decided by coin flip.
21 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It's a little comforting knowing that Winkler does give up the Long ball and he's there 3rd strike out guy
I would like to see the same lineup tomorrow that we had today. The bats need to come out early and often if we want to Advance. Workman needs to be effective tomorrow, hopefully going 7 strong before we turn things over to Ruffin. We can’t take those Toads lightly tomorrow!
Virginia leading OU 3-2, top 7
VA is the home team
by goingforthecorner on Jun 12, 2010 5:54 PM CDT reply actions
I sat with Johanna yesterday (Game 1)
She told me that Texas supposedly already lost the coin flip and will be the visitors.
by formerlyanonymous on Jun 12, 2010 6:24 PM CDT reply actions
comical how home/road is determined
by goingforthecorner on Jun 12, 2010 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Eh, Texas earned the right to actual home field advantage
Home or Visitor on a coin flip doesn’t seem that ridiculous as a coin flip.
by formerlyanonymous on Jun 12, 2010 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions
They did indeed
Although we’re undefeated as the road team. Texas will be facing the same pitcher they beat 10-4 in game one last year, who admittedly has improved since the last time we saw him.
By the by, I'm looking for tickets to Sunday for a decent price.
Doing a bit of tourism in these parts. Luckily got to spend friday with Johanna. Treated a Michigan baseball fan right. Great person that Johanna.
by formerlyanonymous on Jun 12, 2010 6:37 PM CDT reply actions
Statistical comparison between Winkler and Workman
While batting average and ERA are nice stats, they don’t always tell the whole story. It’s disappointing the college baseball universe hasn’t seemed to embrace the more advanced and telling statistics.
Using the normal analysis, we see Winkler appears to be the better pitcher, since he’s 11-1, 3.05 ERA, vs Workman’s 12-1, 3.43 ERA. OH NOES! First of all, win/loss record isn’t even close to resembling a decent way to determining which pitcher is better. There are many factors involved in the W/L stat the pitchers can’t control – team’s offense, defense (not just errors), park factors, luck, etc. Even ERA can be misleading due to the team’s defense and relievers allowing inherited runners to score.
Anyways, I went to the team’s stat pages so I could calculate some more advanced statistics. Here’s the stat page for Texas and TCU.
Stats I found on the pages:
ERA: 3.05, 3.43
Opponent batting avg: 0.246, 0.248
Winkler must be better right? Well here are the stats I calculated, and are more accurate to use in analyzing pitchers:
Kyle Winkler stat, Brandon Workman stat
Opponent on base%: 0.307, 0.305
Opponent slugging%: 0.407, 0.375
Opponent OPS (on base% + slugging%): 0.714, 0.680
WHIP (walks + hits per IP): 1.20, 1.10
Strikeouts per 9 IP: 7.11, 8.76
Walks per 9 IP: 2.54, 2.08
K/BB ratio: 2.80, 4.22
Well how about that? All the advanced stats favor Workman, despite the ERA and opp. BA favoring Winkler. This is a TEXTBOOK example showing the misleading nature of BA and ERA. I bolded the very important statistics to take out of it. If you could only use one statistic in an argument, go with opponent OPS. I also love Workman’s significantly better K/BB ratio. Strikeouts in general are heavily valued since a strikeout does not involve a team’s defense and park dimensions.
While Winkler is no doubt a great pitcher and could easily destroy us tomorrow, the advanced stats suggest Workman has slightly outperformed Winkler this season.
by goingforthecorner on Jun 12, 2010 7:47 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
excellent stat research
I think it is a pretty even match up. And if it’s not a slam-dunk ‘this pitcher is WAYYY better than that pitcher’ type of thing, then it most likely will be a toss up. I hope we get lucky tomorrow!
I admire your statistical research though, it does point out some stats that are not known or looked at by many people. Most people (myself included) usually just look at ERA. I agree with you, W/L ratio is not a good stat on which to judge a pitcher.
by longhorn_dan on Jun 12, 2010 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I just thought of a great statistic
I don’t know if this has ever been postulated or calculated, but I think it would be very telling…
The pitcher has a batting average against him (i.e. opponent batting average).
The opponent has a batting average (i.e. batting average).
What is the differential between a particular opponent’s batting average and the actual batting average of the opponent against a particular pitcher?
For instance consider if Pitcher ‘A’ had an opponent batting average .300. But everyone he had faced had a batting average of .400. I’ll call his ‘differentail average’ = .100. The higher the differential, the better the pitcher.
If Picher ‘B’ had an opponent batting average of .200, but everyone he faced had a batting average of .250, his ‘differential average’ is only = .050.
by longhorn_dan on Jun 12, 2010 11:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Excellent analysis
College pitching stats are less informative than MLB because of the short season limiting the number of appearances and the enormous variation in opponent strength. I would love to see a comparison based on performance against “quality” hitting, whatever that means in college ball.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
I gotta believe that all arms are on deck for tomorrow's game except Jungman.
And this includes Green if only for 2-3 batters. I might be the only one thinking this way but if I’m Augie, I don’t care if it’s only the 2nd or 3rd inning, if Workman is struggling I’m going to Ruffin. See how long he can last ala Austin Wood against BC.
Same thing with TCU. I would think Purke would be available if only for a couple batters.
Sports is man's joke on God, You see, God says to man, 'I've created a universe where it seems like everything matters, where you'll have to grapple with life and death and in the end you'll die anyway, and it won't really matter.' So man says to God, 'Oh, yeah? Within your universe we're going to create a sub-universe called sports, one that absolutely doesn't matter, and we'll follow everything that happens in it as if it were life and death.'" - Sam Kellerman
This is where Jungmann really helped us for game 3
I fully expect to see a lot of Ruffin if needed, even if it’s 5-6 innings. It doesn’t hurt that he’s a former starter. Let’s hope it’s not necessary though.
Yeah, last thing we need is another reliever "wearing his arm out"
I bet Keith Law already has his article written and ready to submit in case Augie does it again.
by goingforthecorner on Jun 13, 2010 1:23 AM CDT up reply actions
In addition to Jungmann, this is where Stayton Thomas helped immensely in game one
Augie didn’t have to go to Ruffin and Thomas gave us a chance to win (we didn’t take it, but the chance was there)

by 





























