How will Utah fare in the new Pac-10? Will they prove the strength of the MWC?

by notsofst on Jun 19, 2010 5:31 PM CDT

Not to beat the realignment horse to death, but I think Utah's joining the PAC-10 might make for one of the most interesting upcoming storylines in college football.

Link to ESPN

Utah is coming off a 10-3 season last year, with losses to #11 Oregon ( 34-24 ), #6 TCU ( 55-28! ), and #12 BYU ( 26-23 ). They capped the season with a bowl win against an unranked Cal, ( 37-27 ).

If Utah succeeds in its first season in the PAC-10, will Boise State, TCU, and BYU become more attractive targets? Will undefeated MWC teams have a shot at a national title matchup?

In 2008 Utah was undefeated, the only team finishing that way, ending the season at #2. They knocked out a one-loss Alabama ( 31-17! ) in the Sugar Bowl.

Now, there have been a handful of teams that have been in Utah's situation over the last few years. Boise State finished undefeated in 2009, but only ranked #4 and was snubbed by being matched with undefeated TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. BYU and TCU have also been courting undefeated seasons, and looking to capitalize on them with at large BCS berth wins.

However, detractors from these teams know that they play light schedules in easy conferences with a few headliner games to pump them up the polls. It's much easier to go undefeated when you have 2-3 "must-win" games and 10 U of Regional Technical College matchups in between, rather than playing 8 or 9 weeks of BCS schools. Utah's depth chart will be challenged for perhaps the first time.

So, what will Utah's result be now that it has moved on up? Will they be able to continue their success? I think no matter what the result of their season, it will reflect on the other MWC teams as well and determine for the next few years what the national perception is of the strength of the MWC, as Utah/BYU/Boise State/TCU are all considered somewhat to be peers.

Poll

What will Utah's conference result be in their first PAC-10 season?

PAC-10 contender, 7+ conference wins

21 votes

PAC-10 member, 5+ conference wins

40 votes

PAC-10 punching bag, 3+ conference wins

9 votes

They'll be lucky to win 3 conference games and to finish the season with a .500 or better record

2 votes

72 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

There's little doubt Utah can compete

But a Pac-10 schedule week after week? That’s where the contenders and the pretenders get separated.

The Utes aren’t going this year, and maybe not next, so they’ll have a chance to recruit for a year or two with Pac-10 exposure and travel as incentives. That’ll help them get players. But there’a lot of difference in playing Oregon, TCU and BYU with a couple of softer opponents before and after each of those tougher games than it will be to play Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Oregon State and USC in a six-week stretch.

I can see a 6-6 and a 5-7 in Utah’s first 3-4 years with the big boys.

by edsp on Jun 19, 2010 5:39 PM CDT reply actions

If I had to venture a guess, Their conference slate would be:

Colorado, Arizona, Arizona St., USC, UCLA. Then maybe Cal, Oregon State, Washington State?

Lets say they go 3-1 OOC. I’ll give them wins over Colorado, Arizona State, Washington State, and they lose to USC, and go 2-2 on the remaining.

That would be 8-4 with a 5-3 record in conference. That’s somewhere around where I would peg them.

by notsofst on Jun 19, 2010 6:02 PM CDT reply actions

I think the depth is going to be a key issue

As mentioned in the OP, depth is what it takes to get through that long slog of a tough conference schedule. While the MWC is about on par with the Big East in football, it’s not quite the Pac-10, and Utah’s going to find themselves challenged in performing with depth and preparing week after week for tough games against solid teams. I think another overlooked factor is that when Utah is facing tougher teams every week, they’ll have to show their strongest hands much more often, and that makes scouting easier for the tougher teams they’ll face. That wasn’t the case when they only had to break out the ace in the hole for a few games a season, which allowed Utah to keep those plays in reserve.

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by burntorangehorn on Jun 20, 2010 2:36 PM CDT reply actions