Where I Come From: Expectations For The Season Ahead
by Peter Bean on Jul 12, 2010 11:00 AM CDT
in EA Sports NCAA FB 11
Email
PrintThis is the final post in a week-long series sponsored by EA Sports NCAA Football 2011.
We spent last week sharing what it means to be a fan of Texas football. Today, we wrap the series with a discussion about expectations for the season ahead.
Overview
Since 2004, Texas has gone 69-9, with 6 of the 9 losses accumulated during back-to-back 10-3 seasons in 2006-07. Across the other four seasons they went 49-3, including 30-2 in Big 12 play -- twice winning the conference and playing for the national title, winning one. Especially delightful, four out of the last five Red River Shootouts have been won by the Longhorns.
As difficult as it is to overstate just how remarkable is that six-year stretch, most Longhorns fans won't hesitate to suggest that the team could have done better -- a fact which explains why one would ask whether a three-loss season ending in a Cotton Bowl berth might represent "a disastrous season for Texas" in 2011. These days, even in a transition year the bar is set exceptionally high.
The Schedule
Texas plays just four road games this fall, plus the annual contest against Oklahoma in Dallas, with the season likely to be defined by the four-game stretch beginning in Lubbock and ending in Lincoln.
| Date | Opponent | Location |
| 09/04 | Rice | Houston |
| 09/11 | Wyoming | Austin |
| 09/18 | Texas Tech | Lubbock |
| 09/25 | UCLA | Austin |
| 10/02 | Oklahoma | Dallas |
| 10/16 | Nebraska | Lincoln |
| 10/23 | Iowa State | Austin |
| 10/30 | Baylor | Austin |
| 11/06 | Kansas State | Manhattan |
| 11/13 | Oklahoma State | Austin |
| 11/20 | Florida Atlantic | Austin |
| 11/25 | Texas A&M | Austin |
Four Questions For 2011
1. What's the offensive identity? We're told the offense will be seeking greater balance this year, but what does that mean? What will it look like? And by what measure will its success be defined? As envisioned, Texas will feature a legitimate rushing attack that opens up a punishing, big-play aerial attack featuring heavy doses of play-action. But what happens if Texas struggles to run the ball? Will Texas revert to the Colt-centric offense, only with Gilbert? Would it be likely to succeed?
2. How do we plan to rush the football? It's one thing to say you're interested in rushing the football, but Texas can be frothing at the mouth to establish the run and still struggle to do so if there isn't a change in how it goes about doing it. Though there are personnel issues, the critical question is one of approach.
3. How much will the defense miss Lamarr Houston and Earl Thomas? The ceiling for this year's defense will largely be defined by how well it fills the voids left by defensive tackle Lamarr Houston and safety Earl Thomas. The line should be fine so long as Kheeston Randall stays healthy and at least one of the redshirt freshmen is ready for to play high-leverage minutes. At safety, there will be a drop off from Earl Thomas -- the question is how much.
4. How many freshmen are ready to contribute? A successful 2010 season almost assuredly includes meaningful contributions from several freshmen (redshirt and true). Are players like Calvin Howell, Greg Timmons, Thomas Ashcraft, and Mason Walters ready? Equally important, will the coaches give them opportunities early and often?
What Should We Expect From This Team?
This is as difficult a team and season to project as any in recent memory; it's easy to imagine both exceptional and discouraging results. It's near-impossible to predict what we're going to see from this offense, and though the defense has the potential to be legitimately dominant, if things break against us (e.g. Randall gets hurt, or the safeties are real liabilities) it could turn out merely good. Equally uncertain are the outlooks of our toughest opponents -- Texas Tech (game three of year one under Tommy Tuberville), Oklahoma (lost 15 important contributors), Nebraska (Zac Lee returns, Ndamukong Suh does not), and Texas A&M (hoping DeRuyter's 3-4 elevates the defense to respectability).
Our recent track record and my very high opinion of Garrett Gilbert make me want to believe a special season is possible, and I think it is. Nevertheless, that there are so many question marks makes more likely that Texas will be up and down. (The running game could be strong, while Gilbert struggles... Gilbert could be great, but without any run game off which to work... The receiving corps could be a major disappointment... Christian Scott, Nolan Brewster, and Kenny Vaccaro could be liabilities in coverage... Injuries could create a crisis at defensive tackle...)
If everything breaks bad, it's plausible this team could lose as many as 4-5 games. At the same time, there's more than enough talent that if everything comes together quickly, it's not unfathomable that the squad emerges from Lincoln a perfect 6-0. All told, I suspect most fans will join me in splitting the difference -- the considerable upside and abundance of unknowns leading us to expect Texas will lose a game or three.
We'll dive into the details of this team in the days and weeks ahead, but for now, this is your thread to lay out your expectations. Do you have a good feel for what you expect this team to do? If you're expecting greatness, what's your vision of this year's offense?
99 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Fox SW Season Preview
Not sure who all saw it, but Fox SW has been running a decent hour long season preview of each team in the Big XII. Texas was the first one, which I caught at around 1am on a Tuesday (sorry, I can’t find a link). No time to share anything constructive right now, but I do have one take away about that season preview: Gilbert said he listens to Taylor Swift to pump him up. This concerns me.
by Infield Elephant on Jul 12, 2010 11:10 AM CDT reply actions
I didn't see it and I don't really know his personality but I think he was joking.
"Football's so important in Texas. On the West Coast, it's a social. On the East Coast, it's a culture. Here, it's a religion."
-- Major Applewhite
god I hope so
Never ask a man if he's from Texas. If he is, he'll tell you soon enough. If he's not, don't embarrass him.
I'm pretty confident that our defense will be legitimately national top 5 quality.
I think we brush making the National Title game this year, largely on the backs of our defense and special teams. The difference between 11-2 and 13-0 will be TFL and Sacks Allowed by our Horns. There might be one more loss lurking in there if GG turnovers come at bad times or two he turns into Chris Simms reborn.
There’s just too few teams in the Big 12 that will be able to overcome 3 NFL caliber corners and the pack of wild animals we stock at DE.
I agree
DT might be a weakness, but there are only three teams that we really need our DT’s to play well against (OU, Nebraska, and A&M).
Personally
A worst case is two losses, That 4 game guantlet of Tech, UCLA OU, Neb. is really just Two OU & Neb. UCLA is not vey good and is coming to DKR, Tech new coach, new defense, no Mad scientist. I think Texas wins both of those easily, just on the defense alone.
I think going 0-2 against OU and Neb is a stretch too
1-1 or 2-0 for the good guys is a more likely scenario to me, as both teams gave up just as much talent in the draft and more.
I’ll remain positive on TX-OU with OU missing McCoy/Williams/Clayton and Nebraska without Suh and having to replace some secondary.
Nebraska's offense is a joke
I think they were one of the worst offenses Texas played last year, and they will be again this year as well. The defense will be good, but not as good without Suh.
If Kirkendoll caught the wide open TD pass and if Buckner didn’t turn the ball over on that drive, then Texas would’ve beat Nebraska by two TD’s. Nebraska was better last year than this year.
woulda coulda shoulda
cuts both ways. If Zac Lee doesn’t throw so many interceptions, if Kunalic doesn’t kick the ball out of bounds, if the refs don’t put a second back on the clock.
Nebraska’s offense will be much better this season, if only it will be difficult to be as bad as it was last year.
Go Big Red Nebraska!
Our Cobs Are Bigger Than Yours!
Corn Nation!
Twitter!
cornnation@gmail.com
by Jon Johnston on Jul 13, 2010 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions
your right
but Nebraska’s offense stinks and it won’t be much better next year. I keep hearing Nebraska fans talk about the RB’s there and I didn’t see anything worth bragging about. I wouldn’t get your hopes up. Watch out for Washington.
While UCLA may not be that good on paper
they represent a very dangerous enemy, one who has been “not so good” before and whipped us.
plus
we have an atrocious record against the Pac 10 of late. Aside from our dethroning of USC, and our win over ASU in the Holiday Bowl, we got whipped twice by UCLA, lost to Oregon, lost to Washington St., and inexplicably lost to Stanford when we brought a top-5 team to Palo Alto.
In just about all of those games we were favored and favored heavily. In fact, the only time we beat the PAC-10 is when we aren’t expected to. So I’ve got UCLA as our most dangerous game this season.
by BrooklynHorn on Jul 12, 2010 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Mack's teams are 1-2 in the regular season vs. Pac 10, 3-2 in bowls.
Only beaten once by UCLA under Mack. That’s losing in ‘98 to #6 UCLA there, 49-31, and beating Stanford. here, 69-17, and losing there, 27-24, when they were unranked and the Horns were #5. Ouch. Then we didn’t play them anymore except in bowls. So we’re back to where we began.
Further proof that storied programs can rise up at any time...and fall as well. They are just kids.
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." ~ Will Muschamp
"I always felt like, and I paid a price for it, that it didn't seem right for one guy to bring me down." ~ The Tyler Rose
"I'm Colt McCoy and I Am Second." ~ Colt McCoy
by Mulliganville on Jul 12, 2010 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Honestly, given how many stars the Big 12 lost to the draft, I expect Texas to win the conference.
As for record, if Gilbert is the man…which I do believe he already is, I think we lose at max twice but my prediction is that we’ll only lose once and I think it’s at Lincoln. Of course if our running game is actually good by this game, I think we can win them all given our schedule.
"Football's so important in Texas. On the West Coast, it's a social. On the East Coast, it's a culture. Here, it's a religion."
-- Major Applewhite
nebraska is a joke, we will win by at least 17 there
only worry is OU (like every year) and the combo of TTU and A&M.
A&M will be a barn burner and TTU has the best QB combo in the country… plus they might actually have a decent defense this year
If we get to 10 wins… ill be happy
But if we win the conference, and go to a BCS game, ill be ecstatic
"We'll be baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!"
by greenspointexas on Jul 12, 2010 12:25 PM CDT reply actions
Don't underestimate a team with a chip on their shoulder
NU is out for (burnt orange) blood. Same reason the A&M game is often closer and tougher than expected no matter how bad the Aggies are.
Never ask a man if he's from Texas. If he is, he'll tell you soon enough. If he's not, don't embarrass him.
+1
Crazy people are hard to handle and if Osbourne is any indication, they have gone batshit crazy.
+2
Nebraska is hanging its whole season on this game. Don’t underestimate ’em.
I’m worried about every game in the Big 12 South (except Baylor) plus Nebraska and K St.
I wouldn’t be shocked if we end the season with 2 or 3 losses. 0 or 1 loss would be awesome 4 or more would be a travesty.
hey towerpower
I had a question(s) about getting spouse tickets, as mentioned in another thread. Is there a way I could reach you (email, facebook, etc?)
Thanks
A&M
I think the Texas D will be ready this year for A&M becasue of how they played last year. Muschamp will have them ready.
High expectations
The Texas program is on such a roll, I honestly do not see one team on the schedule that should be able to beat the Horns. Barring key injuries or some type of team-wide psychological let-down, I expect to be undefeated and headed to a BCS bowl (perhaps not the championship game, though, due to weak schedule).
p.s. With all the home games (plus Dallas), the crowd really needs to be a bigger factor. Someone imagined on one of the soccer threads, what if all 100,000+ fans at DKR sang “The Eyes of Texas” (or “Texas Fight” etc.) at the top of their lungs? That might be inspiring…
Someone should create a hand signal for Garrett to give us
I know I’ll join in. Hell, I’ll start it, given half a chance and I know most of the student section will comply. The problem is getting the alumni section off their butts and adding to the sound. I’ve been to games where the student section has been rocking and all you get from the alumni are crickets.
Every time I feel down and depressed, I think of seven simple words by a true wise man, Matt Leinart: "I still think we're the better team" and I usually end up hurting myself by laughing so hard.
by SurferHorn257 on Jul 12, 2010 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions
I know what you mean...that exact scenario played out agasint KU last season.
The alums should be more vocal…but they get distracted by family, friends, and the fact they are in their 40-50’s.
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." ~ Will Muschamp
"I always felt like, and I paid a price for it, that it didn't seem right for one guy to bring me down." ~ The Tyler Rose
"I'm Colt McCoy and I Am Second." ~ Colt McCoy
by Mulliganville on Jul 12, 2010 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe you should just take 'em out back and beat the crap out of 'em?
They don’t contribute anything to the program anyway, huh?
Be loud...wear orange.
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." ~ Will Muschamp
"I always felt like, and I paid a price for it, that it didn't seem right for one guy to bring me down." ~ The Tyler Rose
"I'm Colt McCoy and I Am Second." ~ Colt McCoy
by Mulliganville on Jul 13, 2010 3:44 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm just saying,
what’s the point of being a fan if you’re bereft of all emotion and enthusiasm? I can appreciate everything the alumni assocation has done and everything they continue to do for UT. But sports are a passionate subject. I just think that if you go to a game, you should get into it, especially a game involving a school you probably spent 4+ of the best years of your life. I’d like to think when I’m in my 40’s or 50’s, I’ll still be belting out the fight song or TEXAS! FIGHT! at the top of my lungs.
Every time I feel down and depressed, I think of seven simple words by a true wise man, Matt Leinart: "I still think we're the better team" and I usually end up hurting myself by laughing so hard.
by SurferHorn257 on Jul 13, 2010 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm just teasing with Mulligan.
It just struck me funny how he said it. You’re right on. Whatever your age, BE LOUD or go home!
Different people express passion and excitement in different ways
Standing up, for example, does not contribute anything. All it does is force everyone else to stand, which is a major pain in the arse for someone like me. Being loud is great, I guess, when it’s for purposes of pumping up the team or causing confusion for the visiting offense, but otherwise is just annoying. I noticed in the army that lots of the less intelligent types thought that one could not be motivated unless one was loud, which couldn’t have been further from the truth. I absolutely hated “sounding off,” and found myself less motivated when required to do so. My policy was to be quiet, kick everyone else’s ass in every competitive category, and lead by example, instead of running my mouth and yelling all the time. Granted, there’s not much of a translation to fanbase for that, but my point is that being loud at the right time is important, but that not all times are the right times.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Jul 14, 2010 7:06 AM CDT up reply actions
They dont have a great schedule, but its #48 in the nation(#1 is toughest)
by vinceyoungismyhero on Sep 8, 2010 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions
I think
You have 3 losses. Injuries kill you guys this year. We will see.
by miketag on Jul 12, 2010 12:39 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Who are the potential three losses?
And how the hell do you just “guess” that we are going to have a bunch of injuries at the exact positions? I could see us losing our top three WRs to injury and still fielding a better, and definitely more talented, receiving corps.
The only losable games on the schedule IMO are Nebraska, my pick as the single most overrated team in the nation (how good can you be when you can’t score?) and OU.
by GoHornsGo90 on Jul 12, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
This.
"You never lose a game if the opponent doesn't score." - Darrell Royal
by BMC237 on Jul 12, 2010 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I could see us losing our top three WRs to injury and still fielding a better, and definitely more talented, receiving corps.
Jordan Shipley alone had more yards and touchdowns, and almost as many receptions, as the top three other receivers last year. Remove Dan Buckner from that equation, since he’s gone, and here’s the comparison.
Shipley: 116rec., 1485yds., 13TD
Williams, Kirkendoll, and Chiles combined: 121rec., 1330yds., 11TD
The only other three receivers who caught a pass last year were Goodwin (30/279/1), Payne, and Hales. Payne and Hales each caught one pass, and Payne is no longer on the team. So taking out the top three WRs, as you said, would leave Texas with Goodwin, Hales, practice squad guys, redshirt freshman Timmons, and then the true freshmen. And while the freshmen are undeniably talented, it seems pretty unrealistic to expect much from them this year, and in fact some of them may well redshirt.
I’m not saying there’s not much talent there, but I am saying that UT would be in a world of hurt in the passing game without the top three receivers, because this would undoubtedly be the greenest receiving corps in the conference at that point.
There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.
by burntorangehorn on Jul 14, 2010 7:34 AM CDT up reply actions
i am not afraid
those 3 loss seasons did not have the caliber of defense we have now, or arguably the talent that we have at the skill positions even considering we don’t have a super RB. we have excellent coaching and excellent talent, plus a very favorable schedule. we’ll finish the regular season with no more than a loss.
"you can destroy a man, but you cannot defeat him." - e.h.
I’ll agree that our D was not as good, but I disagree about having the talent at skill positions.
In 2006 and 2007 we had: Jamaal Charles, Sweed (not 07), Quan, J Finley, Ogbonnay, and Shipley (although i believe he was a bit limitedin 06).
Lots of comments on the greatness of the defense
Which is reasonable. I concur.
Still, it seems like everyone’s just brushing over the offense — as, “We’ll just win ’em all with defense.”
Maybe, but if you’re predicting a conference title and possible national title berth, in all likelihood the offense will have to do some work.
So… how will it work? I’m just curious how folks envision this group coming together.
You ain't hurt...
The GGoffense is
going to be significantly more dangerous on 20 yard passes along the sidelines and in the seams in the back of a zone thanks to the upgrade in arm strength we get from Gilbert. Hopefully Greg Davis can leverage the ability of players like Williams, Monroe, Goodwin and Hales to get upfield quickly.
Of course, to enable this all depends upon a credible running threat or similar. Other than an outside shot that Cobbs or Shead is a world beater, the only new development we really have here is Barrett Matthews at H Back so he will play a crucial role in a resurgence of the run game.
To supplement that, hopefully we can see improved misdirection/unpredictability in Greg Davis’s run playbook, blocking schemes from McWhorter that fit our personnel better and a smidge more tenacity from the offensive line. Could Texas hire a consultant to insult their mothers or threaten their manhood or something for 20 minutes or a half hour before games so they aren’t wearing that dopey Chris Hall smile all the time?
I'm pretty confident in GG after his almost-comemack in January
But reserving judgment on overall offense until it is a bit clearer what our other weapons are…will we have a reliable threat at RB and will there be a WR GG can really develop chemistry with.
Never ask a man if he's from Texas. If he is, he'll tell you soon enough. If he's not, don't embarrass him.
I'll comment on the offense
1. With our wide recievers, we’ve got talent and should have enough experience
2. With our running backs, we’re in the same spot. We’ve got like 8 decent running backs, and half of them with enough with reps.
3. Our quarterback, he’s young but still has one year of experience, was Gatorade’s player of the year coming out of HS and has arguably the best QB coach in the nation.
4. We might actually have a tight end recieving threat in Barrett Mathews, which would be a miracle.
If we can stitch together an offensive line out of duct tape and wishes, we’ll have one of the top offenses in the Big 12. If not, then good Big 12 defenses will be able to cause problems and take us in a game very similar to our tight contests in Dallas last year.
Even worst case scenario, medium to bad defenses won’t keep us off the board all together, and may get torched for 40-50 points in a game, while tough defenses can limit us under 20 points.
However, I think it will take a top tier offense to hang 20+ on Muschamp’s boys.
Didn't answer because I've read EOT
so I have sort of a biased opinion toward the Applewhite offense. wasn’t saying defense would win all games, just Tech and UCLA.
It's ALL about the O-line
The shiny new running game? O-line
The 20-yard out pattern (referenced above)? The O-line
Keep the defense off the field so it CAN be dominant when it’s out there? The O-line
I remain optimistic because we really do have solid coaching. I would say we lose two of OU, Tech, and Nebraska. The cool thing is…that’s worst-case. What a luxury we have when 2 losses is worst-case in an offensive-overhaul season!
41-38 !!
Alabama's offense wasn't that good last year
I know they could run the ball, but I’m confident Texas will be a better passing team than Alabama. The running game will be a little better atleast than last year.
With all due respect to the other skill players on offense,
I just have the utmost respect in Gilbert. He could’ve gotten worse against Alabama but instead, he got much better. That shows his competitiveness and character. Sure, there are issues all every offensive skill position. We have questions at RB, on the O-Line, at TE and WR but Gilbert is the guy that will make it happen. If the O-Line isn’t blocking well, Gilbert will throw the ball faster. If the RB aren’t getting many yards on first and second down, I think Gilbert can make the plays to convert third downs.
With that said…will he be perfect? No. But we don’t face many tough defenses this year. OU and Neb, because of talent and coaching, will be tough defenses for Gilbert, but I think our defense will keep us in the game as those teams have big ?s on offense too. In those games, Gilbert will not have to be spectacular just efficient.
With all the other questions in the other areas, I just believe we have the right talent in place to be successful. After all, the talent level on this team is much different than the 3-loss teams in 2006 and 2007 (had Colt not been hurt, 2006 would’ve been a 1 or 2 loss season).
Our excellent coaching (even GD) will make this season very successful.
"Football's so important in Texas. On the West Coast, it's a social. On the East Coast, it's a culture. Here, it's a religion."
-- Major Applewhite
That's a big dependence placed on 1 player, a true sophomore.
You saw what that got us in the NC game after a freak injury. UT is one concussion or one ACL tear away from Sherrod Harris being the starter. Not that he’s not a good athlete, but it’d definitely be a big dropoff.
I’m as confident in Gilbert as the next guy but this offense has too many question marks, at this point. We struggle running because we don’t yet have a slam-dunk starter and the OL struggled, not to mention that we’ve lost several of our best linemen. Also lost 3 of their best 4 receivers from last year … and a money kicker.
On paper, I don’t see UT losing any games but, then again, I’m a homer. If the Horns don’t pull it together quickly, they’ve got a legit chance of losing to TTech, ou, and, especially, a very strong Nebraska defense in Lincoln.
Tech?
Sure we are playing at Lubbock, but come on, they don’t have Mike Leach anymore. He was their biggest advantage against us because his offense was very hard to stop. I don’t see how Tuberville as a new coach can beat a team as talented (despite some inexperience) as Texas in game 3.
"Football's so important in Texas. On the West Coast, it's a social. On the East Coast, it's a culture. Here, it's a religion."
-- Major Applewhite
Tech
don’t underestimate our ability to play to the level of our opponent. Also, don’t underestimate the effect a prime-time game that early in the season will have on our coaching staff and our players. Recall that last year, we were a vastly superior team than Tech, and we played them at home. Yet, we barely survived that game. Tuberville is a smart coach and I expect his teams will have more balance than Leach’s.
I don't underestimate Tuberville as a pretty good coach...
but he’s completely changing the system. He’s not going to have the right players for his system for a year or two at least.
I just don’t think they will be as good. Yes, Texas can play down to them, I just don’t think I see it. I would like to think our players are very hungry after that disappointing loss in Pasadena.
"Football's so important in Texas. On the West Coast, it's a social. On the East Coast, it's a culture. Here, it's a religion."
-- Major Applewhite
THey're not changing the offense.
They hired Troy coach Neal Brown as the OC and he uses the Hal Mummee system ala Kentucky…which is where Leach (and later Brown ) were assistants and used as the basis as his offense. Brown was quite successful at Troy, so there should be some new wrinkles as well. Expect the same Tech offense with better judgment.
Tuberville did that to keep the Tech offense intact so there would be fewer transitional problems, plus it fits the on-hand personnel.
The defense that Tuberville will throw together could be the problem for them…and you’re right, he may not have the kind of players he needs and will take a couple of years to stock the larder.
However, Lubbock is a weird place where strange things do happen on an all too frequent basis. On paper, it should be a Horn win. With a home opener vs. SMU and a visit to New Mexico, Tech may not be ready for a high caliber team.
This will be Tuberville’s first his first high profile Big XII game and that means surprises. However, I think he will be under big pressure at home to do well and make a good showing, esp. since he shot off his mouth recently. I suspect he can only cover his ass so long.
Strange things do happen in Lubbock
Just make sure the replay official doesn’t live in Lubbock. Umm… that kinda sounds like sour grapes. Sorry, I guess I need to let go of that one.
Thanks for the info.
Didn’t know he was keeping the offense. For some reason, I thought he was bringing back his Auburn run-first offense. Good to know.
So they are a little more dangerous than I initially thought….but I still do not see them challenging us that much. Could the first half or first three quarters be close ? Sure. Just don’t see it happening.
"Football's so important in Texas. On the West Coast, it's a social. On the East Coast, it's a culture. Here, it's a religion."
-- Major Applewhite
Neal Brown
Brown was on the radio yesterday talking about this very thing. He drilled it home that there would be plenty of airing it out. (DTN on Brown)
On Tuberville covering his ass – given how vastly different he is from Leach, I think he’ll be a bit more diplomatic and PC than the pirate. I don’t foresee him spending much time on a hot seat, especially if he does well in the first two years.
by Infield Elephant on Jul 13, 2010 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions
A "bit" more diplomatic?
Being a bit diplomatic yourself?
by BrooklynHorn on Jul 13, 2010 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Good catch
I actually went back and changed “whole-shit-tons-more diplomatic” to “a bit”.
by Infield Elephant on Jul 13, 2010 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I would add
that teams under the influence of a fresh new coach tend to get an injection of enthusiasm that allows them to overachieve. How often do we get a declining team that suddenly has a coaching change, and under predictions of a 6-6 rebuilding year, the team goes 9-3? Seems to happen a lot. It happened to us in Mack Brown’s first year, it happens every five years like clockwork in South Bend…
Also, our struggles in Lubbock predate Mike Leach. We played down to them under Spike Dikes as well.
by BrooklynHorn on Jul 12, 2010 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm split down the middle
Perfect season? No way.
Four losses. Barring key injuries, highly unlikely.
But I don’t see how you lose a four-year starter at QB; the key DE, DT, LB and safety from the defense; the best receiver/ST returner in school history; a clutch PK, and several other contributors from a team that staggered to beat Nebraska, A&M, OU, Tech, even Wyoming for a half . . . and do better than three losses.
Course, I’m hopeful. Maybe Coach Boom could work some in August with the offensive line.
This could just as well be tacked on to notsofst's post above, but yeah
the OL is the main discriminant here. With bad OL play: TOs, sacks and TFLs could put us in the hole early and often. The defense did “a lot of work in the red zone” during spring practice, which I take as Boom’s way of saying that he expects to have that much of a cushion on more than an infrequent basis this fall.
by Magnificent Bastard on Jul 12, 2010 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
2006 Colt
was doing phenomenally until the nerve injury. And we went 10-3 then with the injury happening. If GG stays healthy, I think we can do better than that.
Never ask a man if he's from Texas. If he is, he'll tell you soon enough. If he's not, don't embarrass him.
yeah Texas was cruising to a conference championship
Then colt went down in Manhattan. What really scares me about this year’s schedule is we could find ourself in the same situation heading into the November game @ Manhattan again. I don’t believe in lightning striking twice, but it’s unnerving (no pun intended).
3/19/2009 & 12/15/2009 - Games Where Dogus Balbay Made a Three-Pointer. Never Forget.
I'm just not sure that our competition in the Big 12 hasn't been hurt worse
OU I consider the biggest threat, because even though they stacked the first round of the draft, half of those players were injured last year and I am pretty sure they can reload. They may have the same O-Line issues that we do, however.
Nebraska’s D is w/out Suh, and he was an irreplacable player. Accounted for 9!!! sacks against Colt.
OSU is gutted this year, and Tech is going through a coaching change. Next year’s A&M team will play us tough, but we get them at home.
I just don’t see the losses adding up. I’d give us 50/50 on OU, 50/50 on A&M, and another 50/50 at dropping a game along the way somewhere else where we shouldn’t.
I fully expect DE, DT, and LB to reload for us, and while we’ll miss Earl, I would hope that elevated play from another year of experience out of Chykie, Curtis, Gideon, and Aaron Williams will at least keep our secondary from taking a step backwards.
I honestly think, despite who we lost, that our defense could be better this year than last.
50/50 on A&M at home?
I would say 70/30.
great talent and coaching
plus every team loses talent every year.
Outlook - Big 12 will be way down this year.
Expectations – 10-2; Win Big 12 South (Loss vs Tech & Nebraska)
Offense will be conservative. Offense struggles early in the year and will have trouble establishing a running attack. Gilbert will be brought along slowly during games to help him get comfortable. The offensive line will have trouble, and with a young QB it will lead to mistakes. I fully expect we will not score above 35 points/game. We win the Big 12 south solely because everyone else in the division will probably be as bad or worse than they were last year.
Defensively, I feel great about our CBs, & our teamspeed at LB and on the edge rush. I don’t feel good about the middle of our defense – particularly without ET and Houston. I see us giving up a more explosive plays on the ground and in the air.
The combo of the above will keep our points/game lower than the past few years and will keep teams within 2 TDs who otherwise should not be close. I expect lots of nail-biters this year. I love the direction of where this is headed, but realistically it will take a season for this team to evolve after losing all the talent that we have lost. We will benefit from the overall weakness of the conference.
I think UT"s defense will have to drop some
losing Houston, Kindle and Thomas has to hurt. They may give up more rushing yardage. The secondary will feel Thomas’ absence, but Williams is really good. Boom might have to get creative, which I’m sure he will, to make sure offenses don’t have too much time to throw the ball. All this being said I still see UT with a top 6-12 defense. Many more questions on offense. Talent at QB, but not a lot of experience. Losing Shipley is huge because he was so clutch and so productive. But the O-line, that will tell the tale. Fewer possessions and QB errors due to pressure/inexperience will combine to reduce point production. I see two losses and a second place finish in the south behind, you guessed it, OU. Kind of a homer outlook I guess, but realistic.
I ran into a Sooner here recently...
and he feels the same way I do…could be a special season in either direction.
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." ~ Will Muschamp
"I always felt like, and I paid a price for it, that it didn't seem right for one guy to bring me down." ~ The Tyler Rose
"I'm Colt McCoy and I Am Second." ~ Colt McCoy
by Mulliganville on Jul 12, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
and this is in respect to OU and UT
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." ~ Will Muschamp
"I always felt like, and I paid a price for it, that it didn't seem right for one guy to bring me down." ~ The Tyler Rose
"I'm Colt McCoy and I Am Second." ~ Colt McCoy
by Mulliganville on Jul 12, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
I think our offense will be much better this year, unless the O-line fails. Quality RB’s and a very good WR corp. Landry should make fewer mistakes and see the field better this year. UT in a similar position on the o-line. Both defenses lost personnel but should be solid. The weakness is depth at the DT position. Setting up to be another great RRS. Can’t wait for football!
52ish days and counting...but who is counting
"Stats are for losers. I like winning games." ~ Will Muschamp
"I always felt like, and I paid a price for it, that it didn't seem right for one guy to bring me down." ~ The Tyler Rose
"I'm Colt McCoy and I Am Second." ~ Colt McCoy
by Mulliganville on Jul 12, 2010 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions
K-State
I’m as worried about Kansas State as OU or Nebraska. I know that I have no rational basis for this fear, but I have no rational basis for explaining how they keep beating us.
Hopefully they’ll leave their power towels at home.
This is a pretty rational basis, even our wins are by narrow margins.
98 lost at KSU 48-7
99 lost at home 35-17
02 won at KSU 17-14
03 won at home 24-20
06 lost at KSU 45-42
07 lost at home 41-21
Still, more worried about OU/NU
98: NR Texas @ #5 KSU: Mack’s freshman year
99: #13 KSU @ #15 Texas
02: #8 Texas @ #17 KSU
03: #16 KSU @ #13 Texas
06: #4 Texas @ NR KSU
07: NR KSU @ #7 Texas
The only two that qualify as FREAK losses are 06 and 07. Thank God Ron Prince works for the Colts now!
by Magnificent Bastard on Jul 13, 2010 7:20 AM CDT up reply actions
There's some other positive things I've discovered.
KSU hosts UCLA in their opening game (we host the Bruins in our third). They go to Nebraska during our off week just before we play NU. I doubt if KSU will be able to hold anything back against those opponents. I’m sure we’ll scout the hell out of those games plus they’’re two-fers.
The Horns should be able to draw a pretty good bead based on that. I’m not relieved but I do feel better for the moment. Muschamp will be loaded for Cat.
not worried about the offense
depth at DT is main concern. Losing the kid from El Paso and the kid with the kidney disease is really causing problems now. (Don’t know why I can’t remember their names right now.)
And offering schollies to
Michael Wilcoxson. Brian Ellis. Derek Johnson. Tyrell Higgins (He’s still in the program, as a walkon, I believe).
A lot of this is on the coaches.
Wilcoxon and Higgins I agree with. Derek Johnson would have just been a RS Fr this season, and you’d really rather not count on those guys. Brian Ellis would have helped if he could have stayed eligible. If instead of Kheeston Randall, two scrubs, and a bunch of freshmen you had a junior Randall, a senior Ellis, junior Humphrey, and junior Dre Jones this coming season would have a totally different outlook for the D.
Every team has???
Injuries will decide the success of this season just like it does every season. Let’s hope for an injury free season.
DT?
DT might be a weakness, but there are only three teams that we really need our DT’s to play well against (OU, Nebraska, and A&M). OSU might be another, but I think Texas can manage them. DT was suppose to be a weakness the past 2 seasons and they turned into strengths. I’m sure Howell, Bible, and Dorsey can fill the whole beside KR.
It's been two years in a row that DT has been a question, and twice now it hasn't been a weakness
I’m confident Muschamp’s going to have our DT’s ready to play, young and old.
I’m even skeptical of any team in the Big 12 being able to capitalize on thinness at DT when there’s strength at DE. ‘Bama was able to do it, and there’s probably a couple other marquee programs that could, but I’m not sure any of them live in the Big 12.
Nebraska maybe has the scheme, but do they have the talent on offense to make a game of it? OU has the talent in their backs, but their O-Line is just as thin as our DT position.
A&M gave us trouble w/ a mobile QB and through the air, which is not what I imagine is a traditional “attack the DT” strategy.
Bama
I think the defense just wore down from being on the field too much. The defense was on the field the entire 1st half.
I agree with everything your saying though.
BYE week before Nebraska is a good thing
The 4 game stretch is broken up with a BYE before Nebraska.
Orangebloods said it great.
The season depends on the OL. If they play great, Texas will have a great season. If they play poor then they could lose 3 games (3L is poor for Texas).
What I am most concerned about
is when the new offensive “look” doesn’t generate the 5-7 touchdowns per game. The renewed emphasis on "run first’ requires higher TOP to achieve the higher scoring output we have grown accustomed to over the past several seasons. This potentially puts a lot more pressure on the defense throughout the season. Are we deep enough on the D-Line and at LB for the wear and tear that could result? I for one will be focusing on the results and not the methods. It’s all about the W’s. If that is not good enough for the voters then so be it.
Mack has said in the off-season he wants to score 40 a game.
As you note, you can’t get that with a traditional run-first attack. So you gotta conclude that passing will play an equal role…notice this is exactly what OU does. They run more than they pass but they accumulate much more passing yardage. Texas may not do it quite the same way but I do think the goals are comparable, with the emphasis on the big-play deep pass set up by the run.
One of the things that Texas has excelled at, imho, is controlling TOP and developing offenses with different rhythms and speed to complement their game situations. On the other hand, OU and Tech just have one speed, full tilt boogie and that sometimes is cross purposes with their late game situations. OU has had the defense to back up their speed offense; Tech, not so much.
Of course, this analysis is from the very recent past and the situations may change in the coming season. Virtually all the other Big 12 teams run hot and cold on offense without the strength to dictate for long. Last year A&M had a QB hitting 90% of his passes against us, something that can’t really be stopped; but when he cooled down, so did they.
I think your points are right on.
There were times last year when I wondered why we didn’t slow it down a bit and play the TOP game. Maybe the o-line wasn’t able to be physical enough to do that, but sometimes running to the LOS then sitting there for 15-20 secs to get a play in seemed to result in some of the many, many, many false start penalties. In 08 Bradford along with a more experienced line did a pretty good job of it and could get of 90 plays a game. Maybe with a year of experience Landry & the o-line can do a better job of executing. With Gilbert’s arm UT may be able to do some of the same things. That is, be productive running the ball and hit the deep routes available when the safeties cheat up in run support. OU and UT Have a lot of similarities this year. Gonna make for a great game!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
