Texas Begins Season At #5 in AP

..I was rooting for TCU against Boise State. I just don’t like their fans, and the fact that they want to be treated like Texas, but lose when they get a chance to play them (against us a couple years ago, and losing last year on the big stage). Any chance [you’re] a little biased [because they’re from the MWC]?

but if we end up with a season in which this is actually an issue, then yeah, interesting season to say the least.

Also, this is under the assumption that there are other undefeateds to contend with. If it were only us and Boise winning out, I don’t see a one-loss jumping either.

if BSU got blown out in the MNC, would that not hurt the cause of changing the system? If they make it and are not playing Texas, would you find yourself rooting for them?

…that we didn’t earn our way into the Rose Bowl that season but had to rely instead upon our PR machine to do the dirty work for us? That we never would have gone but for Mack’s begging?

One of the best message board posts I’ve ever read.

Forgot to mention…Cal’s only loss, to eventual national-champion USC, was by 6 points. Our only loss was a shutout to ou – whom USC went on to beat by about 40 points in the Orange Bowl.

No way we had a better argument than Cal for being in that game (not that I’m complaining – that was the best live football game I’ve ever seen). My point in all of this is that, even if our argument isn’t rock-solid, we do a pretty good job of getting what we want when the time comes.

Chances are this is all a moot point by the middle of October; either BSU will have lost, or we will have lost. Get the games started already…I’m running out of things to read (and argue about).

won’t get you BCS bowls (as in, an opportunity to face Bama to begin with). You’re saying Utah could be ranked 1-6 in the PAC-12, which is probably accurate. They’d need to be ranked 1 or 2 just to make a BCS bowl.

The bigger point is it’s much harder to be perfect in a BCS conference than the crap Boise St., TCU, Utah, BYU, etc. have had to deal with.

It will be interesting to see if Utah’s non-conference schedule will include more creampuffs now that they are in a BCS conference. If not, then maybe 2 losses could still get them a BCS bid.

I like most of what you’ve said in the thread so far and agree on Texas needing to look out for Boise State assuming they go undefeated (personally think they get crushed by VT). But I have to disagree completely about Utah competing in the Pac 10. I can see them as a middle-of-the-road team (Okie State, Texas Tech, Oregon State, etc.), but I can’t see them competing with a USC team that decides to start caring again or a Chip Kelly-coached Oregon team year in and year out. JMO.

World Wide Leader bringing you the most anticipated week 1 games EVER!

.#24 Oregon St vs.#6 TCU, Saturday, Sept 4th, 7pm CT – ESPN (uno)

.#3 Boise St. vs. #10 Virginia Tech, Monday, Sept 6th, 7pm CT – ESPN (uno)

EVER. (really though, hype isn’t their style)

For a strength rating, they offer a pretty consistent index. However, I defer to Horn Brain to validate claim.

The Projected F/+ has a foundation in both recent history and numerous transition factors. A team’s recent output (illustrated by the Program F/+ and weighted more toward later seasons), five-year recruiting success (using Rivals.com ratings for signees who actually enrolled at each school), and offensive and defensive fluctuation form the baseline data. We adjust that baseline with transition factors like returning offensive and defensive starters, talent lost to the NFL Draft, and disproportional success on passing downs. The result, Projected F/+, is a more accurate predictor of next-year success than any other data we have tested or used to date, with a remarkable 0.85 correlation between projected and actual wins.

Needless to say, this is not the only power rating system around. But they do a good job measuring index performance and using that data to improve the product.

Following is the list of AP and Coaches top 25 ranked teams appearing in order of Fremeau projected 2010 Offensive F/+ rank.

Alabama -1
Florida - 2
Virginia Tech - 3
Oregon – 4
Texas – 5
Ohio St. – 7
Arkansas – 9
TCU – 11
Penn St. -14
USC – 15
Wisconsin – 17
Miami – 18
Georgia – 20
Oklahoma – 22
LSU – 23

Interesting that Texas is ranked #5 in both 2010 projected offense and defense F/+ rank.

While Boise State ranked just outside their top 25 projected offensive ranking at #28, they say this about the team:

Two Signs for Optimism

1. You can’t get more experienced than this. The Broncos went 26-1 in the last two seasons with a remarkably young team. They enter the 2010 season only having to replace two starters from the team that went 14-0 and finished fourth in the AP Poll. This team has been there, done that, and if they can get past Virginia Tech in the season opener, they have an outstanding chance to get to the national title game. (Again, these rankings are based on overall quality, not projected finish.)

2. Barely challenged. Hawaii proved in 2007 that you can go undefeated while still only looking marginally impressive. Against a weak schedule, the Rainbow Warriors won five games by single digits, and their rankings suffered because of it. Not a problem for Boise in 2009. Only one of the Broncos’ 13 regular season wins came by single digits. Dominating weak foes is almost as telling as beating good ones, and Boise State was almost untouchable in 2009.

Two Red Flags

1. Recruiting rankings aren’t their thing. Boise State faces Virginia Tech on Sept. 6, in potentially the only game where recruiting and athleticism might matter. During the last five years, Virginia Tech’s recruiting rank is 20th; Boise’s is 73rd. The Broncos have pulled shockers before, but there is at least a small chance that they are outclassed athletically against the Hokies. Then again … you could have said the same about last year’s Oregon-BSU game …

2. Standard downs defense. The Broncos were fantastic in terms of attacking offenses on passing downs, ranking seventh in Passing Downs S&P+. But they ranked only 32nd on standard downs. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech’s offense ranked third in Standard Downs S&P+. It is hard not to treat Boise State’s 2010 schedule as a one-game season, but it is clear that the Hokies represent the biggest impediment between Boise State and a potential spot in the national title game — and Boise doesn’t match up wonderfully.