Redshirting: The numbers game

Mack Brown said recently he expects more true freshmen to play this year than in the past. You probably know Mack says this every year. At approximately the same time, using about the same words. 

Usually, he lies. Not on purpose – it just works out that way. Last year, for example, three of the true freshmen who were playing got sidelined by injury early enough that they could be redshirted.

In recent seasons, the redshirted freshmen have outnumbered the true frosh who played by about a 3-2 margin. Going back five years:

2005 – 16 players signed, 7 played, 9 redshirted. Notables who played: Jamaal Charles, Quan Cosby, Roy Miller, Henry Melton. Notable redshirts: Colt McCoy, Chris Hall, Charlie Tanner, Adam Ulatoski, Rod Muckelroy. (Ulatoski signed in '04 but entered school in '05 after rehabbing a high school injury.)

2006 – 25 players signed, 9 played, 16 redshirted. Notables who played: Sergio Kindle, Jared Norton, Lamarr Houston, Hunter Lawrence, Jevan Snead. Notables who redshirted: Vondrell McGee, Chykie Brown, Eddie Jones, Dustin Earnest.

2007 – 23 players signed, 9 played, 14 redshirted. Notables who played: Sam Acho, Curtis Brown, Michael Huey, John Chiles, Blaine Irby, Kyle Hix. Notables who redshirted: Earl Thomas, Christian Scott, Keenan Robinson, Cody Johnson, Malcolm Williams.

2008 – 19 players signed, 9 played, 10 redshirted. Notables who played: Blake Gideon, Emmanuel Acho, David Snow, Kheeston Randall, Justin Tucker, Aaron Williams. Notables who redshirted: Tre Newton, Luke Poehlmann, DeSean Hales, D.J. Monroe.

2009 – 21 players signed, 7 played, 14 redshirted. Notables who played: Marquise Goodwin, Garrett Gilbert, Alex Okafor, Kenny Vaccaro, Barrett Matthews. Notables who redshirted: Calvin Howell, Mason Walters, Chris Whaley, Thomas Ashcraft, Garrett Porter.

The much-praised 2010 class had 25 signees. If past statistics hold up, about 10 will play this fall, about 15 won’t debut until 2011.

I don’t think that’ll be the case; I’m guessing more than a dozen true frosh see the field this year, maybe 15-16. The reason: The pipeline is bursting. In part because of the backlog of players who have redshirted (are eligible for a fifth year), there are TOO FEW seniors leaving the program to allow the 23 high schoolers who have committed to fit under the 85-scholarship limit. That means attrition must happen, and some it will be forced attrition. (I’ll leave it to you to define the how and who of that.)

One way to alleviate this overcrowding problem -- down the line -- is to redshirt fewer freshmen, ultimately reducing the number of five-year players in the program. Also, the coaching staff already knows they’ll have – for example – six offensive linemen coming next summer . . . and three linebackers . . . and four or five defensive backs, depending on where some of the “athlete” types ultimately play. Redshirting heavily at those positions now will mean too many players in the same class at the same position in a year or two. (That's not using your resources wisely.)

Who plays in 2010? Obviously, a backup quarterback, at least one defensive tackle, one or more linebackers, a couple of the defensive backs, at least one wide receiver, probably an offensive lineman. Those are areas where backup help is needed, or cover positional areas where freshmen are likely to contribute on special teams. But that’s just eight or nine freshmen who would play. Not enough.

There are five DBs among the entering freshmen, and five at WR or TE. There are four defensive tackles (with high school DE Greg Daniels joining DeAires Cotton, Taylor Bible and Ashton Dorsey at DT). Defensive ends Reggie Wilson and Jackson Jeffcoat are five-star talents -- too good to hold back? Mack hardly ever redshirts out-of-state players, perhaps figuring those not closely tied to Texas geographically might be more likely to transfer.

Kicker Will Russ, linebacker Jordan Hicks and safety DeMarco Cobbs are out-of-state signees. (Cobbs recently switched from running back to safety, and has been slowed by injury.) I’d guess all three of those play in 2010, plus the two DEs, another linebacker, three (maybe four) of the DBs, two wide receivers, a QB, a couple of defensive tackles and offensive guard Trey Hopkins. Stacked though the position is (numerically), RB Traylon Shead may not redshirt.

We’ll start getting answers next week, when Brown announces the season-opening depth chart.