We’ve Got Issues: Longhorns Preseason
We're all checking the countdown clock every day (or every hour in some cases) for the kickoff to the Rice game. (As of this writing, it's exactly 5 days, 1 hour, 28 minutes and 17, no ... 16 seconds away!) The Garrett Gilbert era is here. It's exciting and scary at the same time. And about the only thing certain is there are a lot of uncertainties.
The fact is, we have a lot of big issues to work out over the next few months, and I'm not talking health care, immigration or the economy. At the front of our minds are pressing, head-scratching, wake-you-up-at-3:00 a.m. issues.
Admit it. You're excited. But you're also nervous. Maybe even a little worried.
The healthy thing to do is to work through all these issues together, weak by weak. So, I've identified four key issues weighing on all our minds. Each week we'll review how these issues are working out (or not working out). We might even grade each one. And, of course, we'll discuss them all.
So, here are the four issues we'll be covering weekly:
Garrett Gilbert's Progress
The last time we saw Garrett Gilbert he had brought Texas back to within three points of tying Alabama, only to get sacked, fumble and watch the National Championship Game slip away. It's his offense now.
Expectations are high, but no one expects Gilbert to be terrific.
And he doesn't have to be.
We just want to see consistent and obvious progress as the season unfolds. We know he's a pocket passer, but he's a good athlete. Can he scramble to keep a play alive? Has he gotten rid of that dip at the end of his drop-back? What passes will he struggle with? How will he handle pressure? Can he stay health? We'll find out.
The journey this year might be painful at times. We might be watching some plays while peering between our fingers. Gilbert does not have an established No. 1 receiver to throw to. The running game will be working through its own struggles, which could put more pressure on Gilbert.
But I hope suspect we'll be very much impressed and much more comfortable with young Garrett by December. He opens against Rice, so expect a lot of high-percentage throws to build his confidence.
Retooling the Running Game
I don't know of anyone who does not at least like the direction this running game is going, or to be more accurate, is supposed to go. Personally, I've been uneasy with the running game since 2005. While it's been explosive at times, overall it's been unfamiliar. It's just not Texas. The Tyler Rose must be a little embarrassed.
I'll admit that the shotgun/zone read has been a good fit for an offense with Vince Young and Colt McCoy, but it sure will be nice if we can get a more traditional style attack rolling. You remember... linebacker isolation plays, fullbacks, I-formations. Those kinds of things.
But do we have the personnel? Forget the running backs for a moment. Can the O-line adjust to the aggressive, push'em-off-the-line blocking? As someone who spent nine years playing on the line, I can say with confidence that pass blocking and run blocking are two completely different things-physically, mentally and strategically.
The game is played from the line of scrimmage out, and if the line isn't effective at run blocking, it really won't matter if it's Tre Newton, Fozzy Whittaker, Cody Johnson or Ricky Williams back there. (OK, maybe not Ricky. (I love you, Ricky.))
I think all backs will get an honest shot this year, unless one emerges early as a clear favorite. Johnson gets the start against Rice, but the others will still get touches. I think the leading rusher gets at least 800 yards. However, that will be much less impressive if the average per carry is about 3 yards.
There are a lot of dynamics to this thing. The addition of an H-back could mean so many things, but the biggest effect likely will be in the passing game. It could really keep defenses guessing and force another linebacker or defensive back to cover one of the lower zones.
No matter how this retooled running game turns out, expect some frustration early as the offense tries to force this thing to work in the first few games. We could see a lot of 1- and 2-yard runs on first and second down.
Give it some time. It should smooth out.
BROC (Big Receiver on Campus)
Jordan Shipley is gone. Not good.
Texas has perhaps the most talented (albeit unproven) group of young receivers that has ever put on a burnt orange jersey. Good.
But we are caught in between productivity and potential. What will we get this year? Who will be the go-to guy?
Several receivers could emerge as Gilbert's top target. While it will be great if he spreads the ball around, young QBs often need a favorite receiver. With this year's group, it's all about what could be... what should be... what's supposed to be.
James Kirkendoll is the most experienced, but will he be there in the big moments? Malcolm Williams has been fantastic at times. He'll make an insane end zone catch and then drop a ball delivered smack between his pecs. This is the year to show that he can be a reliable starter. Marques Goodwin has potential pouring out of his eyeballs. He will be on the field on three-receiver sets. John Chiles has supposedly embraced his role completely, and he's a great all-around athlete. How much will we get from DeSean Hales? Will Mike Davis or any of the other freshmen make an impact?
The dynamic of the H-back could add a great wrinkle to the offense, allowing for several different formations to confuse the defense. A sure-handed outlet could be a terrific thing for Gilbert. But do we have a guy who will be a good fit for the position? That's the key. An H-back is not a running back, and it's not completely a tight end. He has to be big, nimble, he's gotta block, and he's gotta catch the ball.
There's a lot to be sorted out here, and the nature of the receiver position should tell you that it could take a long time for this issue to be resolved.
The D-Line Shuffle
The talk is that this may be the best defense of the Mack Brown era. But we are thin at defensive tackle (in depth, not size). Again, the game is played... say it with me boys and girls... "from the line of scrimmage out."
So, yes, I'm a little worried about the big'ns in the middle. But the ends are as solid as they've ever been. Having said that, Sam Acho is likely going to play at tackle more than at end. And that's OK.
Acho played DT about 40 percent of the time last season and still led the team in sacks. He will add speed in the middle and give young players like Alex Okafor, Jackson Jeffcoat and Reggie Wilson an opportunity to get some valuable playing time. But when a pass rush is needed, expect Acho to slide back outside.
So, from that standpoint, this all seems like it could work out just dandy. It also is probably the weakest spot on the defense. Will Muschamp will tinker with this to put the best combination to counter the formations and plays the offense is showing.
So there you have it-the four most pressing issues for the 2010 season. We'll work through these together. Hopefully over the coming weeks these issues will get better and better. We'll examine their progress after ever game, and we might even give them a grade, or perhaps a gold sticker. Of course, each issue will be wide-open for comments.
Tune in next week for the Week 1 review. I hope everyone's head is right football. If not, get yourself in gear. Hook 'em!
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"Can he scrabble to keep a play alive?"
Interesting question, does he have any vowels?
Two teams can play each other head-to-head, and sportswriters still have to vote who they think is better.
by Longhorn_Seminole on Aug 30, 2010 4:41 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
If I were a Texas fan
I would be worried about:
Cody Johnson is my starting RB. Cannot see him getting 25-30 carries a game, which means y’all will not be a running team this year. You are still going to have to depend on the pass as the primary means of running the ball.
Case McCoy is my backup QB. I doubt you will see your QB get injured two years in a row, but you never know. If Gilbert gets a concussion in a game, things could get dicey.
Kirkendoll is my top WR. On the bright side I expect Mike Davis to break into the starting lineup. I also think Malcolm Williams and Desean Hale will give y’all legit down the field threats in game. Goodwin may indeed develop into a star this year. If I was an opposing DC, looking at your starting WRs is not going to scare me. The potential is there, but hasn’t it always been there?
Yeah I'm much more scared
Looking at our backups. The DC that’s scared of James Kirkendoll is not keeping his job for much longer…
Speed Kills
And we have speed in numbers. Malcolm Williams, Goodwin, DJ Monroe on the field at the same time will scare the bejesus out of DCs. They may not be starters – but they will be out their and there will not be a secondary in the country that can keep up with them.
Note to Bill Byrne "Because you aren´t Texas and you´ll never be Texas"
Cody Johnson will suprise you if he;s really in shape
Who said Kirkendoll was the top WR?
We have other options if Cody wears down from running too far down the field… In any case, GD is going to make this a running team, whether we need it or not. I’d be surprised if the “meaningful time” play mix this year wasn’t at least 45% run…. Hopefully higher if teams watch Nebraska film and decide dime is the key to stopping Texas.
by Tackchevy on Aug 30, 2010 5:48 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
In 2009 Texas ran 48.7% of the time (513/1053 plays).
This was only the second time in the Mack Brown era that Texas ran less than 50% of the time. The other was 1999 with 48.3% rushing plays in the immediate post-Ricky period. They have never ran less than that since 1998.
This is a common mis-perception…that Texas passes more than it runs. It doesn’t 83.3% of the time. The same is true of Oklahoma…last year was the first time in a long time they passed more than they ran. In both cases, both teams gained more yards passing than running, which I generally suspect is the basis of the mis-perception.
Texas averages running 56.4% of the time in the Mack Era. I would expect at least that this season.
With the1998 Major Applewhite-led team that Mack has referenced as the big-play prototype for this season, Texas ran 58.3% of the time, averaged 5.1 per carry and 15.6 yards per reception, the last the most in Mack’s 12 years. That team averaged 6.8 yards per play, a figure only surpassed by VY and the 2005 team with 7.1 ypp. These are the standards coming into 2010.
Don't Let Your Facts Get In The Way of My Talking
I feel like that number is a little skewed though. A good percentage of our plays last year happened in garbage time / clock kill mode, which really exaggerates the run side of the ratio. Not that there’s anything wrong with that; throwing deep passes against a beaten opponent just isn’t part of the Texas MO, for better or worse. It seemed like when GD was really trying to make something happen, or when the going got tough, we were always airing it out like there was nothing else to do.
Whatever percentage of the time we choose to keep the ball down this year, here’s to it being more productive, less predictable, and less facepalm inducing than last season.
This was my thought exactly
As soon as I read that statistic, I knew that if you cut out the 4th quarter, it would be a big lead in passes over runs.
TEXAS FIGHT
I'm with Tackchevy wrt to this year's outcome.
I’m not trying to be pedantic here… the last four years have been pass reliant with decreasing running ability (JC in the second half of 2007 being the exception and one could argue that Colt’s running in 2008 just tipped the scales the right amount).
The interesting point is how well Mack resolves what has been a recurring problem over two long periods (1999-2002, 2006-09) and how patient he will be in waiting for the OL and running game to resolve itself and what other viable options he might have. I’m really looking at the long term on this situation.
Right now Mack seems extremely confident and maybe he has a fine bead on what he expects for the season. I hope so.
With the coaches noting they are practicing 60-70% of the time on running, I suspect that is what is necessary to convert the OL into the new mission, which means the passing game is getting just rudimentary attention. So, I would expect a lot of running in the first two games just to solidify the learning situation with the OL.
Cody isn't there for 25-30 carries a game
Looks like he’s going to get the first chance to tote it 12-15 times, though. Don’t look for a “Williams” or “Benson” type runner this year – sharing will still be the mantra. But Cody gets the first shot at being the main guy. Plenty of talent waiting in Tre and Fozzie.
Case is backup today. But is this a case of trying to give Connor a red-shirt year – and therefore possibly three years at starter? Time will tell.
And our receiving corps is indeed fraught with potential. “Potential” can be a cruel noun – but sometimes, just sometimes – when it pans out – it can come to an awesome fruition. Jury is still out, but a verdict is likely by the end of the UCLA game.
"But we are caught in between productivity and potential."
Sounds like me at work, what with all of this great content leading up to the opening kick-off.
Looking forward to this season bigtime...
Its gonna be real fun following the team this year. Last year IMO was tough since we were picked high all year and expected to be in the Championship game. It made things so stressful and less fun.
This year seems to be a lot like ’08 where overall opinion is that the Horns are a year away from a legitimate shot at national title and the pundits are going with OU as favorites again.
i think we’ll know after the OU game what kind of team we have
+1…. Hard to be under the radar at #5, but it is so much more enjoyable to watch a team grow and achieve. Last year sometimes felt like just going through the motions as a fan, and seeing the offense sputter against five teams was just sad. This year seems like 2006, except with much more potential and less LB dark comedy.
by Tackchevy on Aug 30, 2010 5:53 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I didn't attend many games last year
but I watched every one of them.Now being the old Dino people accuse me of forgetting things, but I don’t remember GG getting any real game snaps with the first team.
There were many chances for GG to have taken some snaps with the first team take for instance the Kansas game when he came in and handed the ball off to the RB on almost every play.
This is a blind spot of Greg Davis as Sherod Harris never got to play in a game with the first team.
If Case is to be the backup then ,please Greg, give him some real game snaps with our first team offense.
by TCB Orange Dino on Aug 30, 2010 7:35 PM CDT reply actions
Check Mack's press conference this morning.
He made mention of how to work Case in during the first half and whether or not they should send in the second team line. I’m with you…I think Case needs some work with the first team early in the first half.
But you know, we’ve said this for some time and it has never really been done. Maybe the ’Bama game was sobering enough to get it done now.
"No one expects Gilbert to be terrific"
What??? It’s difficult to take your football opinions seriously after reading something like that. I expect Gilbert to become a star this year and to become one almost immediately. You’re selling this kid way short.
by jpsantini on Aug 30, 2010 9:03 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I think you are selling him way too high.
Look he has alot of potential. I do think he will be good, but he is still going to make many rookie mistakes. Getting your hopes up that Gilbert will be the greatest pocket passer the world has ever seen this year is unreasonable.
I think for now his main goals should be to work on limiting turnovers and building consistency.
If he can do that our offense should work well enough for our defense to win our games for us. Towards the end of the season I expect the playbook to open up and we can maybe start trying to beat teams with his arm.
When was the last time Greg Davis produced a bad QB?
I expect Gilbert to be good, and by the end of the year possibly great. Davis knows how to coach QBs.
Easy. He’ll have some growing pains. He’s just a sophomore. But I do think he will be a great QB.
"Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try."
- Yoda
by ElongatedHorn on Aug 31, 2010 12:10 AM CDT up reply actions
It surprises me that so few people are concerned about the QB
To me, for any team, and regardless of how much potential a QB has, until the question of whether your QB can play at a level high enough for your team to accomplish their goals (in our case a national championship), all other questions are secondary, because they are inherently less important. Once Gilbert demonstrates the ability to move the offense, limit turnovers, and get points when we need them, then we can bother with the d-line, RB’s, WR’s, etc. Texas’ ceiling is as high as Gilbert’s, and right now we don’t know how high that ceiling is.
If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!
I think you have to be concerned about a young o-line
before you worry about the QB. A strong o-line can make a weak QB look bad, or vice versa. Even if Gilbert is the next Peyton Manning he needs a decent amount of protection to develop and stay healthy.
Never ask a man if he's from Texas. If he is, he'll tell you soon enough. If he's not, don't embarrass him.
Think 2006 & Colt McCoy.
A great veteran offensive line was a huge blessing to getting the redshirt freshman started off right.
exactly
Never ask a man if he's from Texas. If he is, he'll tell you soon enough. If he's not, don't embarrass him.
I am worried about the running game
if we are stopped cold on first and second down, then you are asking for trouble with a true sophmore QB in his first starting gig if we are consistantly in the 3rd and long situations. especially if we are not able to run against tech, OU, and nebraska, hell even UCLA. You dont want to be predictable and let a good defense like those teams have pin their ears back and coming hunting for our QB. We have all said here that the big plays are going to come off play action pass, but if the defense isnt scared of our RBs then we aint getting those DBs to bite on the play fakes.
Guess we just have an honest difference of opinion here, then.
I’ve seen enough of Gilbert (HS games, practices, NC game) to know that he is greatness and that he’ll be greatness THIS year. Some of you obviously haven’t.
I think all this talk about Texas’ renewed emphasis on the running game has fooled some people into believing that Gilbert will be an offensive manager a la Greg McElroy at Bama. Don’t be fooled.
This will be Gilbert’s team every bit as much as the last two have been McCoy’s and the ones a few years earlier were Vince’s. We’ll go as far as Gilbert’s arm will take us and that’ll be to a position to win a NC next year. If that comes a year early, well, that would not greatly surprise me either.
The big difference in Colt’s offense and in Gilbert’s will not be in the overall effectiveness — little will change there. The change will come in how this year’s offense as opposed to last year’s gets the job done. We’ll have a lower completion percentage — perhaps considerably so — and a much higher yards-per-completion number — almost certainly considerably so (In regard to this latter, the health of Marquis Goodwin is just about as important as that of Gilbert.) For the year, the number of interceptions thrown will not rise, nor will the number of sacks taken, although early in the year both could and I’ll say probably will — but only slightly and never enough to be a great concern.
In terms of scheme, the passing game with its downfield emphasis this year will actually help our running game more than the running game will help the passing game, although few fans will see it that way.
In comparing Gilbert to past UT QBs, I think the best comparision is one to the mind of Applewhite and the body of Simms — the best of both worlds. As much as
Gilbert’s decision-making will impress you, his fearlessness in going deep should impress you even more.
Guess we’ll see shortly if any of this is on the money.
Hope you’re right. Guy has no physical ceiling, but it just takes game reps and some rookie mistakes to fully develop. I do enjoy your Applewhite comparison; GG has a moderately goofy expression that masks some fiery leadership and a real eye of the tiger mentality. Four more days.
by Tackchevy on Aug 31, 2010 7:24 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Count me in the "not worried" camp when it comes to Gilbert
He’s the obvious choice for people who want to talk about question marks, but I chalk that up to people being intellectually lazy.
Gilbert knows how to do “terrific.” This is not a kid who is ill-acquainted with success. Growing pains? Inexperience? I stopped worrying about those things in January.
Agreed
Never ask a man if he's from Texas. If he is, he'll tell you soon enough. If he's not, don't embarrass him.
glad to know that Gilbert is definitely capable of leading this team
I’m not sure what I was doing, being concerned about a QB who has never started a game in college.
If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!
he's never started a game in college
but he’s played in and came very close to winning a national championship game. The decision-making and execution on that long TD pass to Shipley speaks volumes. Sure, there’s still reason to be concerned and he’ll be training and improving, but I’m much less worried than I would have been had GG never gone in to that game and performed the way he did.
Never ask a man if he's from Texas. If he is, he'll tell you soon enough. If he's not, don't embarrass him.
He also blew the game
because he missed reading that weak side biltz that bama blatantly projected. It was a rookie mistake, and something I could never fault him for given the context, but it is something that needs to be worked on. If we are down 4 with 3 minutes left against NU in Lincoln, is GG going to be able to read the defense? For whatever credit he gets for keeping the ‘Horns in the game, he didn’t do anything that lets me know that he can play through a full season and win every game, which is what is being asked of him. Colt couldn’t even do it, so I’m sure not just going to assume GG can.
I’m aware of other “question marks” on this team (I would call the whole concept intellectually lazy. Identify what areas have been problems recently or where there is inexperience, and there you go), but my point, and I think the point of some other people here, is that as long as QB play is a question mark, it is inherently more pressing (which is how the poll above is phrased) than any other area due to the importance of the position.
PS – I’m so glad the season is starting, I miss these football discussions. I’m sure we’re all on the same page here, but I’m happy to be having conversations about these things.
If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!
This poll surprises me.
It clearly demonstrates a difference of opinion that I have with the rest of the fanbase. With the exception of certain unusual situations (ie Bama last year), a team needs a great quarterback to succeed. That’s just the way the game has evolved. In fact, the Indianapolis Colts proved last year that you could get to the Super Bowl without any semblance of a running game. As a general rule, you need a dominant passing game to go far in both CFB and the NFL.
Heading into this year, Garrett Gilbert is a huge question mark. Don’t take that the wrong way. I’m not sure I could feel more comfortable about a sophomore quarterback with hardly any experience. But, if we’re being real with ourselves, we don’t really know what we’ve got in GG yet.
However, it’s clear that folks like jp (above) feel otherwise:
I’ve seen enough of Gilbert (HS games, practices, NC game) to know that he is greatness and that he’ll be greatness THIS year. Some of you obviously haven’t.I think the amount of games you’ve seen GG in high school/practice is more or less irrelevant at this point. The system he’s about to be plugged into will be very different than the one you’ve seen for the past 4 years at Texas and Lake Travis. Similarly, if we had made this change last year, I’d have concerns about Colt’s adaptation to more under center looks.
I’ve said all this before, and it’s not my intent to sound like a broken record here. I just think it’s important that, as a fan base, we temper our expectations. There are going to be some growing pains with GG, and it’s probably a mistake to set the bar so high at this point.
To me, he’s the biggest “issue” in the sense that I think we can only go so far as he can take us. Conversely, we saw last year that we can get all the way to the MNC with a dismal running game.
I agree with some of your points..
…I agree that :
I think the amount of games you’ve seen GG in high school/practice is more or less irrelevant at this point. The system he’s about to be plugged into will be very different than the one you’ve seen for the past 4 years at Texas and Lake Travis.
There are going to be some growing pains with GG, and it’s probably a mistake to set the bar so high at this point.
However, I don’t agree with this :
Conversely, we saw last year that we can get all the way to the MNC with a dismal running game.
Yes, we can get to the MNC game, but you also saw what happens when you depend on one player too much. You need balance just in case. I think we don’t need to be a running team, but the D has to at least respect the run. It’ll make it much easier for Gilbert and the team as a whole.
by vy til i die on Aug 31, 2010 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Re:
Yes, we can get to the MNC game, but you also saw what happens when you depend on one player too much.
Your issue isn’t with the system…it’s with college football in general. A running game would have helped, yes. However, I think you’re kidding yourself if you think it would have changed the result of the game.
Here’s an exercise for you: How many teams could have won a MNC over the last decade with their backup quarterback?
Just like last year, the biggest question is offensive line
if GG has time to throw, he’ll be a productive QB this season.
by goingforthecorner on Sep 2, 2010 1:35 AM CDT reply actions

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