The Data (Mostly) explains why we want Davis fired
by feltgod on Sep 27, 2010 6:07 PM CDT
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Hi Horns Fans,
Amidst the swirl of anger pouring out from me after the UCLA game, I wanted to pull some data to help me understand why I felt so strongly that Greg Davis should be fired, NOW!. I consider myself to be a rational person for the most part, but I am quite irrational when it comes to my love for the Texas Longhorns and my love for winning every game, every season.
Before I replied to any more posts confirming that, "yes, I too want Davis fired", I wanted to be sure there was some rational data to support why I held such strong feelings.
Here is the data I pulled. The Wtd Average Ranking represents the weighted average rank of Total Offense & Defense (Yardage) and Total Scoring Offense and Defense (Points). I found this the fairest measure to evaluate our coaches. It is not perfect for many reasons, but it's a decent measure of coaching effectiveness.
| Wtd Average Offensive Ranking | Wtd Average Defensive Ranking | Offense | Under Pressure? | Defense | Under Pressure? | |
| 2010 | 73 | 18 | Davis | Yes | Muschamp | No |
| 2009 | 16 | 8 | Davis | Somewhat | Muschamp | No |
| 2008 | 7 | 35 | Davis | No | Muschamp | No |
| 2007 | 14 | 49 | Davis | ? | Akina/Duff | Yes |
| 2006 | 14 | 25 | Davis | ? | Chizik | No |
| 2005 | 2 | 9 | Davis | No | Chizik | No |
| 2004 | 10 | 21 | Davis | ? | Robinson | No |
| Average | 19 | 23 |
source: cfbstats.com through 9/25/10 (the UCLA game is included)
Analysis:
1) Obviously it's quite clear why I want Davis fired right now. His Wtd Offense ranking of 73 through 4 games is the lowest of any coach on offense or defense at UT in the past 7 years. Now, to be fair, Davis has several games left to right the ship, but I understand now why I'm pissed. The data supports my feelings...yippee!
2) The "hot seat" for a Texas coach in the eyes of fans is probably any rank over 25 for the defense and any rank over 10-13 for the offense (I couldn't quite recall our feelings toward Greg in each year...if you know...then post in the comments). While I hate to admit it, we appear to hold Greg Davis to a higher standard than our defensive coahces. Get used to it Greg, we're Texas, and we want to score lots of points.
We also prefer coaches who work from the sidelines during games, who demonstrate passion in their postgame interviews, coaches who preach accountability, and coaches who are generally charismatic. I don't doubt that all these factors contribute to our "pitch fork" mentality when it comes to Greg Davis. He just hasn't built a great rapport with the fan base and doesn't seem to care to.
3) We apparently gave Will Muschamp a pass from the "hot seat" in 2008 when his defense ranked 35th, presumably because he demonstrated substantial improvement over the Akina/Duff debacle in 2007. Not to mention, he has all the intangible qualities that fans love. Greg could learn a lot from Will on how to build rapport with the TX fans.
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I'm curious where the team ranked through four games in 2008 and 2009
Any idea?
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by burntorangehorn on Sep 27, 2010 7:57 PM CDT reply actions
The problem is not just raw numbers
It’s improvement. We knew our 2008 defense would experience growing pains, but you know what? They grew up in front of our very eyes. That’s coaching. Likewise, we knew we would have offensive struggles this year, but it’s so bad that I’m actually afraid of what might happen when we have the ball. We saw zero improvement from Texas Tech to UCLA. Zilch. And that’s disappointing. It has nothing to do with Muschamp’s rapport with Texas fans and everything to do with the progress we’ve seen him make with this defense the last two years.
by TheElusiveShadow on Sep 28, 2010 1:33 AM CDT reply actions
Also
(And I have hesitated to jump into this Davis bashing because I got called out for it so bad last year when we were winning) but Greg’s acclaim has been how he adapted to the strengths of his personnel. Adjusting to suit VY and Colt. He got lots of credit for that in this past edition of “Eyes of Texas” if I recall. And rightly so.
But when I watched even those games, there were many times I felt the same frustration I feel now. But VY would scramble and get the first down anyway, or Colt would run around and make an impromptu toss to Shipley and it would “work out OK”. So no worries right? My dad said in 2004, that Vince saved Greg Davis’ job that year. Remember the growing annoyance back then that we “couldn’t get over the hump”? And then 2005 happened, and guaranteed GD a free pass for years. When Colt took over, it was more of the same.
We don’t have that anymore.
Also, and I don’t know how much this has to do with it, but along with the Over-the-top-outstanding QB play, we have also been spoiled every year over the last 5 that 1 receiver will step up and be a “Great” receiver. Roy, Limas, Quan, Ship….. That hasn’t happened yet for Gilbert.
"A lot of people look for the easy way to do anything, in swimming there is no easy way." - Eddie Reese
I think it would be foolish to assume that our perceptions of
Davis and Muschamp are colored beyond just their raw performance. Charisma and rapport matter to fans, it’s just human nature.
NOT colored
what i’m saying is…Muschamp attitude/approach to the game/demeanor endears him to fans, thus we’ll be more accepting of the few years where he “underperforms”. Greg Davis gets a very short leash from us because he is not a likeable guy.
How does that data support you?
Shouldn’t Muschamp be somewhat under pressure considering he is ranked 18th? Davis was for being better than that in 2009.
The offense sucks right now and if he ends the season at 73 then he should be fired, but his average from 2004 to 2009 is 10.5. Better than Muschamp has done over the last 2, and I am going to guess it is probably one of the best in the country.
The only thing your data really shows is that you are not giving someone who has consistently had one of the best offenses in the country the benefit of the doubt that he can right the ship.
Are you just trolling or do you really not understand what I was saying?
Because it seemed like a simple concept to me.
18th<16th, which is what the offense was ranked last year, for which the chart shows Davis as being somewhat under pressure.
are you just being an apologist b/c someone has to?
I get what you’re getting at, but you’re telling me the “struggles” of the defense are the same as the struggles on offense?
by vy til i die on Sep 28, 2010 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes and No
I am being an apologist because someone has to, and because the above chart does not really support his claims.
I am not saying the struggles are the same or that Muschamp should be on the hot seat, I am just trying to point out that the above chart implies that Davis’ offense has out preformed the D every year but last year and yet he is the one who has been on the hot seat pretty much every year but 2005.
You obviously did not read my entire post
but thanks for commenting. I made the point that we have higher expectations of Davis in my post,
Scoring offense and defense are unfair metrics
Consider 2009: defense gained 37 turnovers (tied for 1st) and offense gave up 28 (tied for 99th). Any of those that go for scores either reward the offense (when they’re on the sideline) or punish the defense (when they’re on the sideline).
So far in 2010: defense gained 7 (40th), offense gave up 10 (106th).
by Magnificent Bastard on Sep 29, 2010 9:14 AM CDT reply actions
yep, i agree. which is why i said it was imperfect
and it’s also why i’m weighting together scoring and yardage rankings to come up with a composite ranking which is much more “fair”.
Tongue in cheek?
The problem with scarcasm is if it is subtle and if people don’t know your position, they may assume you are serious when you are not. I suspect that accounts for the confusion in some of the responses. The reason I suspect this is “tongue in cheek” is that your case against GD is so weak that it actually supports him. First, based on the last 6 years as a whole your stats indicate that Davis’ offense has out-performed the defense. Second, you correctly note that while this year looks bad, it is still early. Third, you note that we hold our OC to a higher standard than the DC because we “are Texas” and expect to score a lot of points. (Not a very persuasive or fair argument.) Finally, you point out correctly that Davis’ faults are less likely to be over-looked and forgiven because of his lack of charisma. He is a bland, seemingly disinterested individual behind the glass, while Brown is liked by one and all and Muschamp is the enthusiastic “cheer-leader” on the sidelines always seem exhorting and pushing his troops. I don’t think it is fair to evaluate a coach on the basis of his personality, and I think you may be suggesting the same thing. But again, I may be wrong about the point you are trying to make..
"Only angry people win football games." --DKR
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