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Boisestateophobia (aka Fear And Loathing Of The Plucky Underdog)

A couple of weeks ago, when dissecting the AP preseason rankings, my assertion that an undefeated Boise State team would have an excellent chance of playing in Glendale for all the marbles wasn't particularly well-received. 

In sum, many of you don't believe that Boise will run the table, and many of you believe that, even if they do, there's little chance they'd take the place of a traditional power like Texas in the game.  Reasonable minds, of course, can disagree.  There are also those who will insist on simply arguing that Boise couldn't possibly go undefeated in a power conference, but I would simply note that I believe such an argument has little impact on Boise's chances of playing in Glendale in January.

Tonight, in the marquee match-up of the opening weekend, Boise State travels to FedEx Flied in suburban Washington DC to take on Virginia Tech in a de facto road game, a game I would argue is the toughest OOC game scheduled by any preseason Top 10 team.  If Boise wins tonight, the table is set for another undefeated regular season, and I guarantee that the biggest national story we'll be subjected to, week in and week out, is whether Boise State deserves the chance to play for the championship.  And I guarantee as well that a majority of the national media covering this story will be sympathetic to the Broncos.

(And, yes, I know I'll have considerable egg on my face if Boise loses tonight.  But I'll cross that bridge when I get there.)

Since we're on our way to BSU overkill this season if victorious tonight, I thought it might be a good idea to start to get to know those lovable little underdogs a bit better, given the impact they'll have on the national scene and, quite possibly, Texas' chances of playing for the championship.  I recently had an email exchange with Kevan Lee, the editor of SB Nation's Boise State blog, One Bronco Nation Under God, to discuss Boise State's chances this year as well as his take on the particular level of vitriol the idea of Boise State playing for the national championship inspires in many followers of college football.

Hopkins Horn: Thanks for speaking with us, Kevan.  If Boise State manages to defeat Virginia Tech next week — and that’s a might big "if" -- the Broncos might very well be on the fast track to the BCS Championship Game.  If the comments of last season on BON were any indication, such Bronco success will lead to much angry gnashing of teeth.  Let me ask you, from a completely unbiased perspective, are those who would be angered at the possibility of Boise State playing for all the marbles merely irrational, or are they dangerously mentally unstable?

 

Star-divide

Kevan Lee: If it's a comment flame war you're looking for, let me start off by saying that Vince Young was terribly overrated in college. That should do the trick.Boise State playing for a national championship is a very divisive issue, not necessarily in the greater Boise area in which I exclusively spend all of my time, but across the country in general.

Are Boise State title haters irrational people? Yes. Are they mentally unstable? Also yes. But do they sometimes make some valid points? Out of context, yes.

I will concede you these points.

The Broncos do not play a schedule that is week-after-week as difficult as that of a BCS conference team. Even at their Iowa State-Baylor-Colorado worst, the Big XII outdoes a San Jose State-New Mexico State-Idaho trifecta of suck by miles.

A great number of BCS teams would likely go no worse than 10-2 against Boise State's schedule of VaTech, Wyoming, Oregon State, New Mexico State, Toledo, Hawaii, San Jose State, LaTech, Idaho, Fresno State, Nevada, and Utah State.

However, you have to realize that Boise State cannot control three-fourths of its schedule, and the one-fourth that it can control includes two Top 25 teams. What more can you ask of the team, besides not playing in the WAC?

As far as I'm concerned, any argument about whether or not Boise State deserves to play for a national championship comes down to this: Are the Broncos a Division I-A football team? If so, then they should have a shot at a Division I-A football championship.

If you don't want Boise State playing for a national championship, then why put them in the same NCAA classification as the rest of the teams? That's like excluding the NFC West from Super Bowl contention. If a team does everything that is asked of it, why should they be any less eligible for their sport's ultimate prize?

I understand the frustration of seeing a team play for a national title after beating a schedule that is subpar. But let's get honest with ourselves. Boise State is an NCAA Division I-A team, and an excellent one at that. If they can go undefeated against a potential ACC champion, a potential Pac-10 champion, and a conference that has been due to break through against them for a decade, they deserve to be in the national championship game.

HH: I wanted to like you.  I really did.  But then you go off like a drunken Aggie about VY.  Not good my friend.  I’m going to retaliate by mocking that famous Boise player of a few years back: you know, old, um, what’s his name.  That guy.

Disregarding that transgression, I want to pin you down on what you just said, namely, "If they can go undefeated against a potential ACC champion, a potential Pac-10 champion, and a conference that has been due to break through against them for a decade, they deserve to be in the national championship game."  Would you stand by that assertion even if, at the end of the season, any two of the following three teams (Alabama [undefeated SEC Champion], Ohio State [undefeated Big 10 Champion] and/or Texas [undefeated Big 12 Champion]) are also undefeated?  Especially since all three of those teams start ahead of the Broncos in the Coaches’ Poll and will play schedules more difficult than the Broncos’.

KL: I'll have you know that famous Boise player has had a very journeyman CFL career, thankyouverymuch.

I think that any Division I-A college football team that goes undefeated during its regular season - be it Boise State, Alabama, or even Directional Michigan - deserves a shot at the national title. This is why getting a playoff is so important. It is impossible to declare a consensus national champion if there are two or more teams undefeated at the end of the year. College football crowns a BCS champion, but it lacks the equity and infrastructure to support a true national champion.

And maybe that's what this discussion really boils down to. Does Boise State deserve a shot at a national championship if there are three undefeated teams at season's end? I would say yes. Does Boise State deserve a berth in the BCS championship game if two teams out of the Texas-Florida-Alabama-Ohio State collective go undefeated? Probably not. I am a homer, but I am not a homer to the degree that I demand Boise State jump any of those four teams in the coaches poll based on my feelings about the Broncos' greatness. I'd be upset. But I wouldn't be delirious.

HH: So let me get back to the issue of boisestateaphobia.  I have a theory that much of the disdain thrown in the direction of the Broncos comes from the infamous blue turf.  I believe that the blue turf gives those who dislike challengers to the old money teams an easy excuse to say "Look!  Blue turf!  Gimmicky team!  Not worthy of respect!"  Is that a crazy theory, or am I on to something?

KL: I don't think you're crazy (oh wait, that wasn't an option, was it). Anything that detracts from the football being played on the field will always lessen the perception of that team. You could look at it like this: You have 50 brain cells devoted to any given football team. If five of your brain cells are focused on blue turf, that leaves 45 brain cells to focus on Boise State's greatness. Other great teams would get the full 50 brain cells, or even more in the case of Tim Tebow's Florida Gators (brain cells are like loaves and fish).

That being said, I wouldn't trade Boise State's blue turf for the world. The blue turf put the team on the map, and it provides a connection to casual sports fans who otherwise wouldn't know Boise State from ITT Tech.

It's not fair that people discredit Boise State football because of blue turf, but then again, unfairness seems to be a theme of this discussion, doesn't it?

HH: In addition to earning respect with a serious championship run this season, Boise State also sought to answer critics' cries of "go join a better conference" -- because the Pac-Whatever's invite has been lost in the mai, right? -- by accepting an invite this offseason to join the Mountain West Conference beginning in 2011. Since that acceptance, though, Utah has accepted an invite to the Pac-Whatever and BYU (presumably as I type this) has announced its intentions to go the independent route in football.  How serious a blow do you see these defections being to BSU's move towards sustained respectability?

And as a related question, do you see any indications that Boise will continue to seek out Virginia Tech-type out-of-conference foes in future years? (Bonus points if you name specific names as to schools Boise has approached and been rebuffed by for future OOC games, even for one-and-done road trips for BSU.)

KL: First off, let me state on the record that BYU sucks wind. I kind of hope their football program ceases to exist in five years.

The Mountain West move was still the right decision for the Broncos even now that neither Salt Lake school is in the mix. Boise State gets more money, plays slightly tougher competition (even without BYU and Utah), and has a much easier travel schedule. And really, the Mountain West is about as good as it could get. Boise State is on an amazing trajectory, but even with that, no school can go from junior college to BCS conference in 50 years' time. It's kind of bittersweet to see conference realignment happening all around the Broncos because now that BSU is in the Mountain West, it is hard to see any other place they could go from there in the immediate future.

Absolutely Boise State will continue to seek VT-type games in the non-conference schedule. They have one next year against Ole Miss. As the Broncos get better, the administration has found that they need money, and lots of it. And guess who has money. Teams bigger than Boise State, that's who. I can't see Boise State taking an easy out against a Division I-AA school any time soon, especially not when there is a big money payday waiting for them somewhere.

HH: So no games against Stephen F. Austin in your future?  That’s refreshing.

So thanks for your time helping us understand a little bit better that Boise State isn’t something to be scared of.  Or mocked.  Or whatever.  But I can’t let you go without getting your thoughts about what you expect to happen tonight at FedEx Field.

KL: There are so many interesting angles to this game. I think Brent Musburger's head might explode before kickoff trying to get in a mention of all the storylines to watch.

The biggest one for me is how well the Boise State defense makes adjustments in-game to what Virginia Tech is doing. We'll be breaking in a new D-coordinator tonight, and while I don't doubt his gameplanning ability, I am curious to see how he handles on-the-fly coaching.

For a prediction, I'll say 28-21 Boise State with each team picking up a non-offensive TD. Let it be written, let it be done. I'll get started on that Texas-Boise State national championship game preview.

HH: Thanks again for your time, Kevan.  Good luck tonight.  But don't worry about writing that Boise State-Texas championship game preview.  One of us isn't going to be there.

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Interesting exchange

History has shown the only non-major conference school to have ascended the mountain top in the modern era, in the words of Ke-van, is the loathsome BYU cougars. They defeated a pre-season AP top 4 ranked Pitt in their opening game and beat a 5 loss Michigan team in the Holiday bowl.

//emphasis// NO OTHER TEAM WENT UNDEFEATED IN 1984. One loss Washington finished second and two loss Nebraska finished third in regular season play.

If the major conferences fail to produce two undefeated teams, and BSU or TCU win out, then it is possible for one of these teams to play for a BCS championship. Too many will want this to occur as the political winds would reach category 5 status and the big money CFB machine can ill afford the microscope. So a token bone will be thrown in this scenario with the nod given to BSU if they defeat Virginia Tech (assuming the Hokies don’t lay an ACC egg this year).

While intriguing, too many ifs and buts this early in the season to be having these types of conversations. The season is long and arduous. The difference between a team competing for BCS MNC votes at the end of the season and an invite to the {fill in the blank} bowl is one key player’s knee tweak or, miracle of miracles, a last second catch in the Bermuda Triangle.

by TXStampede on Sep 6, 2010 8:05 AM CDT reply actions  

Agree

It’s too early to count any team in or out at this point

by Nick Kroes on Sep 6, 2010 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

Why rank them #3?

Current BCS sysytem sux. If the polls are going to rank a team in the top 10 before they play a single game….why shouldn’t they have a chance to play for the championship if they win out??? Don’t rank them so high if you don’t want them playing for it. Another reason we need a playoff now.

by Dawnpatrol on Sep 6, 2010 8:13 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Issue Seems Pretty Cut and Dried to Me - If they are in top 2 - they play

I think Boise State richly deserves a shot at the MNC. While you can say that the week to week schedule is not as tough as a run through the SEC, many schools are guilty of that. You could argue that they have proven much more than ND recently, and the MNC would welcome ND with open arms. The reason I feel so strongly they deserve a shot is that they have passed every hurdle. They simply stoned the Pac 10 champs, just embarrassed them. They beat an undefeated TCU team. They beat OU when they were matched up with them. Tonight they will prolly beat VaTech and VaTech may just win the ACC title. So far, we have no evidence that they are not one of the 2 best teams in the country.

Note to Bill Byrne "Because you aren´t Texas and you´ll never be Texas"

by realmccoy on Sep 6, 2010 9:09 AM CDT reply actions  

Man, I hate that turf

But I still kind of like Boise State because Boise State beat Oklahoma. For that reason, I like Texas Tech, Nebraska, Texas, Miami, BYU, Florida, Texas (again), West Virginia, Texas Tech (again), Colorado and of course Boise State. On Saturday, I almost became a Utah State fan forchristssake.

If there are 2 other undefeateds, Boise State will be left out. That is FAIR, to the extent that the BCS is fair, because the other 2 will have proven more at that point. Just the fact that we can say things like “beat VT and you’re all set” tells you all you need to know. You cannot rack up stats against that schedule that are convincing enough to warrant a jump over someone who simply wins ugly against much better competition.

And when I said I like Nebraska and Texas Tech I was kind of lying because it supported the argument I was making at the time. Really, I hate Nebraska and Texas Tech.

by Magnificent Bastard on Sep 6, 2010 9:56 AM CDT reply actions  

Ranking Boise St. at #3 is a complete fabrication

By a national media too lazy to try to find actual storylines to write about in 2010. Ranking Boise at #3 gives them an easy “underdog” story to write about. It’s simply lazy journalism, if you can call it that. Ask any of Boise’s fellow WAC’ers just who is the underdog here. They’ve been unmercifully slaughtered by Petersen and company for what, 2/3 years now? I love Boise, they make me a ton of money because they’re simply so lacking in mercy (bet on the first half over, baby!), but it’s so obvious they are being used by the national media to gin up easy storylines. I’ll give Petersen this, though: I’ve never heard him whine about being disrespected; then again, Bronco fans do plenty of that for him. Right, Kevan?

In-VINCE-able.

by iamjackburton on Sep 6, 2010 10:23 AM CDT reply actions  

I still think they need to be rated lower due to schedule
They have one next year against Ole Miss

The same Ole Miss that just lost to JVST? Wow. Powerhouse.

Come talk to me again when they schedule 4 BCS teams in their 4 OOC slots. Then they’ll have some depth. Or if they manage to unseat another title contender/storied program during a season. If Alabama/Texas/OU/OSU/Michigan/USC/etc… ends up 11-1 with a sole loss to Boise, then I’ll give them credit. Or even VT, if they want that to be their big win.

But beating two BCS teams that go worse than 8-4 or even 9-3 doesn’t make you a title contender.

These “premier” matchups that TCU/Boise/whoever schedule are not premier. I have yet to be impressed with a win from any of these teams.

We’ll know some of the truth when Utah shows up with a PAC-10 schedule in another year.

by notsofst on Sep 6, 2010 10:25 AM CDT reply actions  

come on

You know schools don’t schedule teams months before a game. It’s kind of a crapshoot scheduling that far out. How would BSU know that Ole Miss would crap its pants so bad? Who knows, USC might be a Pac-10 bottomfeeder by the time we play them in what, 2018? I think Boise has no place going to the MNC over an undefeated powerhouse team, but really.

Also, as prestigious as Michigan (sucks!) has been historically, if I looked at the last few years of college football I would not count them as anywhere near a powerhouse title contender.

Never ask a man if he's from Texas. If he is, he'll tell you soon enough. If he's not, don't embarrass him.

by LonghornEm on Sep 6, 2010 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

That's my point.

If your one scheduled opponent is down that year, guess what? You don’t play for the title.

Schedule 4 of them if you want to be safe. Even if they’re all down, people would give you credit at least for playing half a BCS team’s schedule.

The question is, “Does strength of schedule matter?” If so, then Boise doesn’t really have it.

by notsofst on Sep 6, 2010 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

Hmm…it’s sad a team can’t control their own destiny

by Nick Kroes on Sep 6, 2010 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

Kevan?

I didn’t have to finish reading to know I don’t like that guy or his yuppie parents.

by CMDR on Sep 6, 2010 10:39 AM CDT reply actions  

I know! How dare they substitute one vowel for another?! They should have just stuck to random apostrophes!

by Nick Kroes on Sep 6, 2010 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

K'van

Now that’s a name with some credibility.

by CMDR on Sep 6, 2010 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

I was pushing for Kev@n

"Please put your fat finger down!" - Lars

by Kevan Lee on Sep 7, 2010 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

When it comes down to it

I feel that allowing BSU to play in a national title after playing through a WAC conference schedule is the closest thing to cheating your way in without actually cheating. It is unfair to the kids who accept the responsibilities and hardships that come with playing for teams in AQ conferences. Yes, this means I think that no team from a non-AQ conference should ever play for a national title. Or rather, if BSU goes to the NCG this year, then Texas should immediately join C-USA. Screw playing ou, tech, a&m, and the like every year, when it clearly doesn’t mean jack.

If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!

by circa1015 on Sep 6, 2010 12:27 PM CDT reply actions  

Then...
Yes, this means I think that no team from a non-AQ conference should ever play for a national title.

…why not have the AQ conferences break away and form their own division if have of 1-A is automatically DQ’ed from playing for a MNC?

Hungry Hippos, baby! It's on!

by Hopkins Horn on Sep 6, 2010 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

I would be 100% for that

If you're so sure of what it ain't, how about telling us what it am!

by circa1015 on Sep 6, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

it won't happen

b/c they’d lose too much money by not being involved in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The money that each D-IA school receives from television for that game is simply too much to pass up.

by Beergut on Sep 6, 2010 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I hate the AQ conference format. You can’t tell me the Big East or the ACC the past five years have deserved an automatic qualifying team.

"Too much awesome on my feet."-Brian Wilson
"Time for the laser show, boys!"- Aubrey Huff

by 49er16 on Sep 6, 2010 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

High Ranking w/out Earning Is Double Standard

Remember K State’s 0- and 1-loss teams that were always excluded from real national title conversations? How ‘bout Wisconsin, Auburn same records? The reason those schools have not entered the national title debates when they’ve had outstanding, even undefeated records is because they scheduled soft non-conference games. For that reason they were disqualified in the eyes (and pens) of many a sports talking head.

Now Boise St comes along, plays a schedule that at it’s strongest is by every single measure weaker than KSU, Wis, Aub AT THEIR WEAKEST and B St is worthy of being in the national title conversation? Many of us on this board have railed against UT from time for time for such easy non-con opponents as we’ve had hurting our SoS, remember the whole 2008 fiasco when as a 1-loss team we lost out to 1-loss OU by the slimmest of margins?

Somehow B St, with a schedule far weaker than any, ANY of the BCS schools is worthy? Talk about double standards!

Look, I’ve got little problem with B St earning their way into the debate, movin’ on up each week as BCS teams fall. But giving them a headstart when they have a schedule that lets them run downhill for the entirety of a season while BCS conference teams have to run uphill or flat for most of theirs is preposterous, a thumb in the eye of schools that take on far greater challenges, and makes any complaints about BCS schools playing a weak non-con schedule laughable. If you buy into the B St argument then you should, you MUST demand the team you pull for schedule nobody’s for every single non-con game in order to increase the likelihood of finishing undefeated. I mean if quality of competition doesn’t matter then why take a chance outside your own conference?

by RMHorn on Sep 6, 2010 2:35 PM CDT reply actions  

Further, I'd Argue Rewarding the Boise St's of Football Hurts Them!

If the Boise St’s of college football demonstrate that you can get into the national title game if you finish undefeated, EVEN if you have a weak schedule then not one BCS conference school would put a risky game on their schedule, meaning no opportunities like B St has against Va Tech tonight will even happen in the first place. All risk and no, zero reward for a BCS conference team means cupcakes only for non-con games. That ultimately hurts the B St’s of college football!

by RMHorn on Sep 6, 2010 3:03 PM CDT reply actions  

Tough Love.

If we cuddle them, it’ll just make them weak.

by notsofst on Sep 6, 2010 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Boise State's conference schedule is what BCS teams schedule for non-con games

to give them credit for going undefeated against a schedule all BCS teams expect to go undefeated against is just laughable.

Playing Oregon or Virginia Tech in the first game of the year doesn’t impress me. The first game of the season is the best time to upset a superior team, because teams are still figuring everything out. Play them in the second or third or final (Texas Tech-Weber State, anyone?) game of the season, and beat them, and then you’ll deserve some credit.

by Beergut on Sep 6, 2010 5:21 PM CDT reply actions  

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