Teams with a Realistic Shot at the National Title Game
by MJY6087 on Oct 23, 2011 1:57 PM CDT
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PrintThis has been on my mind the whole day. My opinion and the order of likeliness ( also according to me)
1) LSU/Alabama Winner
- Win out and make it to the national championship game
- Obstacles: If LSU wins vs Bama, they still have to play Arkansas in the last game of the regular season. If Alabama wins, their hardest opponent is Auburn. Winner of SEC West must play the SEC East...they hope it's South Carolina and not a upstart Georgia team
- Likeliness of making NC game: Very likely (my prediction is LSU over Bama)
2) Clemson
- This is assuming Stanford drops one (has to play Oregon USC and Pac-12 SOuth winner (AZ St) )
- Also assuming OSU drops to OU, which in my opinion is very likely
- Very reasonable remaining schedule (games against WF, ACC Coastal champ, GT, and SC)
- Likeliness of making NC game: somewhat. They will probably drop a game, even though they will be favored in their remaining games
3) Stanford/OSU (tie)
- If OSU or Stanford win out, they will make the title game. If both win out, OSU will make it over Stanford
- Stanford has tough road (has to play Oregon USC and Pac-12 SOuth winner (AZ St) ). I would argue that Stanford's remaining schedule is tougher than OSU's
- OSU has tough road ( KState, OU, TT)
- Likeliness of making NC game: somewhat likely
4) Boise St
- Games vs TCU and SDSU remain
- They will probably win out
- As Georgia keeps on winning, their computer numbers go up
- Likeliness of making NC game: somewhat likely/likely. They've been punished before and voters may want to give them a chance. I also like that the team manages expectations very well. I also predict that OSU will lose to OU and Stanford will lose to Oregon. If both teams lose, BSU deserves a chance to play in the championship. Over an undefeated Clemson. And a one loss SEC team
5) Bama/LSU loser / OU/Oregon
- I just don't see that happening this year. If LSU is the loser in this game, it has a better chance than if Bama is the loser because of strength of schedule.
- OU has a shot if they beat OSU and Bama/LSU loser has two losses, BSU Clemson Stanford all lose.
- Oregon needs to win out and needs alot of help
- Likelihood: not very likely...I don't see a one loss team getting in this year. I honestly believe there will be two undefeated teams in the championship this year.
Who do y'all think will be playing in the championship?
My prediction: LSU vs Boise St
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We need a BCS Guru to look at OU assuming they win out.....
They play 4 ranked teams out of their last 5 games. Regardless of the TT loss, their SOS looks pretty strong. Unfortunately, IMO, the TT loss is just what OU needed to be motivated in every of their last 5 games.
I really dont want ou in the NC game…..There is a lot of football to be played, but I dont see Stanford or Clemson winning out.
I suppose its possible for a rematch of the LSU/Bama game for the NC if they both win out…..that would be interesting.
I'd kill for a Nobel Peace Prize
by MeatchickenHorn on Oct 23, 2011 4:01 PM CDT reply actions
Unless OSU goes all the way
Personally, I think Stanford will lose to Oregon.
by MJY6087 on Oct 23, 2011 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't see OSU going undefeated...
But I can see Stanford beating Oregon.
Because we're Texas and we're evil. DUH.
by iamjackburton on Oct 24, 2011 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Stanford, Clemson, and OSU lose a game.....
and it will come down to a 1 loss LSU/Bama or an undefeated Boise St. going against the LSU/Bama winner.
That is Boise's best shot. Someone outside the SEC loses at least one game
And they go undefeated.
Because we're Texas and we're evil. DUH.
by iamjackburton on Oct 24, 2011 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
Never thought Boise ever had a realistic shot to play for the title, but I can actually see how it could happen this year…you’ll have the winner of Bama/LSU as your locked up and throw away the key #1 team provided the winner of that game finished undefeated.
Oregon knocking off Stanford, some ACC team (or maybe even South Carolina) knocking off Clemson, and then OSU/KSU beating the other and then getting knocked off by OU or some other team are all very plausible and even likely to happen…creating a huge log jam of 1 loss teams, none of whom look all that much better than the others (short of the Bama/LSU loser should they also go undefeated the rest of the way).
Obviously Boise has to go undefeated and keep winning convincingly…TCU being down doesn’t help, but if Georgia can keep winning including maybe a couple of high profile games in the SEC, the Broncos resume starts to look really good.
If at the end of the year, you have Bama/LSU winner #1 and the loser of that game #2 along with a bunch of other 1 loss teams and then undefeated Boise, I think it happens. The voters won’t want to see a rematch of Bama/LSU and the David/Goliath scenario often imagined comes to fruition.
I think the chances are still remote, but at least it’s plausible…and honestly, if it plays out like that, I’d rather see Boise take on Bama/LSU than I would some other team that won the one-loss team beauty pageant for the right to get stomped.
@longhorn54b
It would be nice if they actually got to play anyway if they go undefeated
And put this talk of Boise being “good enough” (or not) to rest once and for all. I am not saying if they can win or not, I’m just saying, it seems like the fact that they never get the shot is actually what MOST people want, so they can keep arguing about it. I’m frankly bored by it.
Because we're Texas and we're evil. DUH.
by iamjackburton on Oct 25, 2011 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Schedule
OSU can win out and has a much tougher schedule than Stanford or Clemson,
Bow if they loose I say Clemson. I think an undefeated University of Houston could make an interesting game with Clemson, Stanford or Boise. I would even like them to play a one lose B12 team to be a tryout for B12 membership.
The Big 12 is shockingly good this year. Go figure.
I don’t think most people realize how good it would be coming into the season. It might be second only after the SEC in terms of running the gauntlet.
Because we're Texas and we're evil. DUH.
by iamjackburton on Oct 25, 2011 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions
yep, the B12 is so good
I predict a one loss OU (after beating OSU) will get the nod. I’ll bet Stanford loses to Oregon. I’m not sure Boise St loses, but I’m feeling they will get held out of the title game…
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