NCAA Tournament Projections as of March 12th
by awiggo on Mar 12, 2011 10:49 PM CST
in Texas Longhorns Basketball
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PrintWe're down to less than 24 hours before the official NCAA tournament bracket is revealed. I’ve been traveling today and trying to catch up, so I’ll make this quick.
For Texas fans, clearly, there will be no No. 1 seed. However, based on the strength of the Longhorns' nonconference wins (North Carolina, Illinois, and Michigan State) and a second place finish in the Big 12, including a wins over Kansas, Missouri, and three over Texas A&M, I think Texas sits firmly on the No. 2 seed line.
It is a near certainty that Kansas will be rewarded with the top seed in the San Antonio regional As the NCAA tries to avoid putting teams from the same conference in the same region, it is highly, highly likely that Texas will be slotted in one of the other three regions.
As a reminder, the top teams are gunning for protected seeds in the these four regionals: Newark (East), New Orleans (Southeast), San Antonio (Southwest), and Anaheim (West). Anaheim and New Orleans are Thursday / Saturday regionals; Newark and San Antonio are Friday / Sunday regionals
The second and third round (the NCAA is now considering the play-in games round one) in eight spots across the country. Thursday / Saturday host sites include Washington DC, Tampa, Denver, and Tucson. Friday / Sunday host sites include Charlotte, Cleveland, Chicago, and Tulsa.
Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 20 teams in the NCAA tournament.
No. 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke / North Carolina winner
No. 2 Seeds: Notre Dame, Duke / North Carolina loser, Texas, BYU
No. 3 Seeds: San Diego State, Florida, Connecticut, Purdue
No. 4 Seeds: Wisconsin, Louisville, Syracuse, Kentucky
Next Four: Georgetown, St. John’s, Arizona, West Virginia
Big 12 Bids (6)
Lock: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri
On the Bubble: Colorado
Bubble Burst: Nebraska, Baylor
Thoughts?
Other Sites to Visit: Blogging the Bracket / ESPN’s Bracketology / Bracket Matrix
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San Diego State
Has to be ahead of BYU, no? They destroyed them today and BYU isn’t the same team without Davies.
You’re right that UConn probably fought themselves into a three seed. This is why I can’t comprehend at all how people say the tourneys don’t matter for seeding. They literally halved their seed. Probably more if they had lost in the first round of the Big East tourney.
ND should get the 1 seed ahead of UNC. Have to somewhat take into account non-conference and UNC’s was u-g-l-y. Not saying you’re wrong, just saying what’s fair.
Have bad feeling that if Florida wins tomorrow they will jump us for a two seed. Probably irrational, but they’ll definitely be a tough 3 seed if they keep playing like they have lately. Of course a lot of that has to do with streaky shooting, so we’ll see if they can keep that up.
If I’m a lower ranked team in the tourney, I’m praying to my deity of choice that I get matched up with Wisconsin. And if I’m the two seed (and I probably will be) I’m praying that I don’t get matched up with UConn in the Sweet Sixteen. First off they have Kemba Walker who’s back to going crazy mode, then they add in guys like Napier and Lamb that are playing well now, and they are a matchup nightmare with their height and athleticism inside. Give me BYU or Purdue, thank you very much.
Yes it’s terrible for St. John’s that D.J. Kennedy tore his ACL, but I think whomever is in their quarter is going to be secretly thanking their lucky stars.
Georgetown with a healthy Chris Wright is a recipe for a deep run in the tourney.
Duke is the favorite if Kyrie can ever come back.
Teams I really don’t want to play that aren’t in the top 10: UConn, Syracuse, Georgetown with Chris Wright (notice a trend here?), and Kansas State.
Reply
BYU beat SDSU twice.
Kyrie is not coming back and will be headed to NBA as well.
Yeah will be interesting to see where G’town and St Johns get seeded given their injuries. And BYU for that matter with the suspension
--AW--
by awiggo on Mar 13, 2011 10:14 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
why so sure that Kyrie is going to NBA?
by raptor rabid on Mar 13, 2011 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Not the same BYU team
The NCAA takes that into account, as they should. The game that should count the most of the three is the one with their current team. And SDSU had less losses.
Not sure how you are so sure about Irving.
by GoHornsGo90 on Mar 13, 2011 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
I sure hope so.
The Ralphie Report - University of Colorado Athletics
SB Nation Denver
by Jon Woods on Mar 13, 2011 9:35 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
North Carolina
Could NC and Duke both end up with a 2 seed if NC wins? I know NC has been on a tear lately but they had some pretty bad losses during the season. If it’s all about how you finish the season in the minds of the committee then I could see them ending up a 1 seed.
I can’t wait for next week. There is going to be lots o’ parity this tourney. Brackets are going to get trashed the first week again.
Oh and another question...
Would it be a good or bad thing for Jordan “Straight Outta Compton” Hamilton to play in Cali for 1st/2nd rounds? If we end up in Anaheim for some reason, it could be a double edged sword for him to play there. He could either play out of his mind or go back to last season’s shenanigans and try to win the game on his own.
Notre Dame
Will likely get the one seed if UNC wins.
by GoHornsGo90 on Mar 13, 2011 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions
something to watch for
he shot 4-13 (1-5 from 3pt range) in that bad loss AT USC
by trueorangeblood on Mar 13, 2011 12:09 AM CST reply actions
Lunardi's bracketology update has Texas down to a 3 seed...
out in the Anaheim region.
Has both Duke, NC, UConn, and San Diego St as other 2 seeds.
I think that is over-reaching to give UConn and San Diego St the nod over Texas as a 2 seed.
I think it is reaching even more that he has Notre Dame as a 1 seed on there.
I never take what Lunardi says on bracketology seriously. I think it is good to use as a reference guide, but he will change it 4 more times today before the selection show comes on.
A gun rack... a gun rack. I don't even own *a* gun, let alone many guns that would necessitate an entire rack. What am I gonna do... with a gun rack?
by HornsRiverine on Mar 13, 2011 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions
ND
Yeah maybe ND over Carolina if UNC wins today but not even sure about that. Carolina would have won their league and their conference tourney. Rah rah Big East but ND didn’t win either.
No way it’s ND over Duke if the Blue Devils win today.
--AW--
by awiggo on Mar 13, 2011 10:22 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Unfortunately, I thing Lunardi's probably got it right....a 3 seed at best.
After reading the Sunday AM papers on line and in print…..its unanimous…the Texas victory over KU earlier this year was a fluke…never should of happend….KU emotionally drained and couldn’t play up to potential. Austin American Statesman even suggests we are a one-trick pony; without Thompson we’re done.
Unfortunately, I suspect ths line of Sunday morning thinking coupled with our brief collapse at the end of the season will weigh heavily upon the NCAA tournament committee’s deliberations.
Great players make great coaches, but great coaches make champions." DKR circa 1964
I agree that we'll end up being a 3 seed.
The Nebraska, Colorardo and Kansas State losses over that stretch should drop us to a #3 seed.
that would have to be the swing that lands us as a 3 seed....
if we lost 3 out of 4 during late jan instead of late feb……we would be a solid 2 with everybody’s bracket.
Not that KU is using this as an excuse
I keeping reading that KU has never used their game week tragedy as an excuse for their loss in the very same stories that mention players discussing how their minds/hearts were not in the game (despite the fact that they played well and had a big lead early).
by BurntOrange&Blue on Mar 13, 2011 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
ESPN and other outlets say they don't all the time
But player interviews say differently. They (the players) allude to it every time somebody mentions the game. It’s kind of pathetic that the media loves them so much that they feel obligated to lie on their behalf.
It’s not like it’s not a completely legitimate excuse for losing a game, but let’s not patronize the rest of the country by saying they don’t use it as an excuse when they do.
The funniest part is the media’s rationale that they “ran out of energy.” So they got an energy boost in the first half then energy reduction in the second half? Give me a break.
Lunardi has A&M as a 5 seed
Could care less just don’t wanna play a dominant post in the first round. Would an A&M-Wisconsin matchup be the ugliest in Tourney history? Probably. Would love to get Kentucky in the second round.
I think lots of mid-majors win first round matchups this year.
CU is in an Burkes may carry them to the 2nd round.
Duke will bow out in the 2nd round (round of 32)
by miketag on Mar 13, 2011 7:35 AM CST via mobile reply actions
What do you know...
…that ESPN/SI/BTB don’t? :)
All three have us as a 3, and that feels right to me. I saw, through that matrix link, that a lot of sites with acronyms I have no idea what they stand for have us at the 2, but I just can’t see that for a seven-loss team which lost four of its last eight.
To be filled in later.
by Hopkins Horn on Mar 13, 2011 8:44 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
I don't think the "matrix link" is up to date
One site…5B…has us as a 2 as of 3/12, but if you go to their web site…they now have us as a 3 based on last nights game. Many if not most of the ratings are dated 3/12 or earlier. However, I am too lazy to check them all, but I suspect in many cases most will push us down based on current events.
Great players make great coaches, but great coaches make champions." DKR circa 1964
Remember
None of us really know anything.
I think non conference keeps Texas on the two line. I could be wrong.
Also would have a win over Kansas a 1 seed, a win over Carolina a probable 2 seed, and loss to Pitt another 1 seed.
If UNC gets to the 1 line, Texas would have two wins over top seeds. That’s pretty impressive even given the late conference losses.
--AW--
by awiggo on Mar 13, 2011 10:26 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Lunardi has UConn
As a two seed with 9 losses. That’s absolutely pathetic and borderline unforgivable. Yeah their run was amazing as I stated above, but to move them up to a 2 seed (if that actually happens) proves to me that recency bias is so fundamentally ingrained into the committee that we should actually incorporate a mathematical check on teams that have done well down the stretch. Unreal.
by GoHornsGo90 on Mar 13, 2011 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
remember Carmelo's Syracuse team
They had many losses, got hot late, and rode that streak to a championship.
That's fine
But has nothing to do with my point that UConn shouldn’t be a 2 seed. I didn’t say they weren’t good, I said they should be seeded lower.
by GoHornsGo90 on Mar 13, 2011 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
We don't disagree
Your point is that resume matters, and a team with that many losses does not deserve a 2 seed.
My point is that the seeding committee appears to rank teams on how they are playing currently, thereby valuing recent performance over past performance.
UConn is obviously hot, and therefore using the committee’s criteria they may indeed end up as a 2.
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