Elite Eight Open Thread: San Antonio & Newark
by awiggo on Mar 27, 2011 1:05 PM CDT
in Texas Longhorns Basketball
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PrintThe games start a bit earlier today than they did yesterday. In just five hours, the Final Four will be set. Who will join Connecticut and Butler in Houston? I'll take Kansas and North Carolina. Who you got?
1:20 p.m. CT | CBS |
1 Kansas (KU -11)
11 Virginia Commonwealth
Southwest Regional | San Antonio, TX
4:05 p.m. CT | CBS |
2 North Carolina
5 Kentucky (KY -1.5)
East Regional | Newark, NJ
Here's a few conflicting stories about Tristan Thompson and the NBA Draft.
NBADraft.net reported yesterday that Thompson has signed with an agent and is entering the NBA draft. My first reaction is the site got this wrong as earlier in the week there was a mixup between Tristan and a different Thompson of North Texas. The 6-5 senior guard from North Texas has signed with an agent.
Our Tristan's mom reportedly told Zagsblog.com this morning that the NBADraft.net report was incorrect. Mom, Andrea Thompson, said this by phone from Canada:
I didn’t sign anything, We didn’t sign anything. I don’t know where this is coming from. We didn’t talk about anything yet. He’s going to finish this season. We’re just relaxing.”
The deadline for early entries is April 24th. Underclassmen who have not signed with agents may pull out of the draft and return to school up until June 13th. The 2011 NBA Draft is June 23rd.
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Kansas can make it to the National Championship game without having to play anyone above an 8 seed.
And only two teams higher than a 10 seed.
Disgusting. Here’s to hoping Butler can stomp them after they win today.
With Butler an 8 seed
Ironic. Goes along with your comments of easy path seeding-wise
Vcu
We are here at the game and we are going to cheer for vcu. Love their fans and their band!
by bballgrl on Mar 27, 2011 1:17 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
VCU coming out strong
Kansas doesn’t seem ready for this pace
Pace
KU will be in trouble if this pace continues. Kansas has a huge advantage with the Moris boys inside.
Fast paced game won’t get them the touches they need.
--AW--
So far I see this game as Texas vs. Kansas when we beat them in Lawrence.
VCU is Kansas, spurred by an early burst of energy and a chance at their first(?) Final Four.
Kansas is Texas, keeping steady in the first half and surviving the early VCU storm. I still think VCU cools down after exerting too much energy in the first half and Kansas takes over.
by HornPossessed on Mar 27, 2011 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe
VCU still on fire from deep. Until those threes stop droping, VCU is going to hold the lead.
Up 14 pts.
--AW--
Awww the Morris twins are pouting. Breaks my heart.
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
Any possession
when a Morris doesn’t touch the ball is a win for VCU.
And another three. Up 18 freaking pts.
--AW--
Exactly
KU taking contested jumpers.
by Reggieball on Mar 27, 2011 2:06 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
why is anyone surprised?
isn’t this par for the course with Kansas. Except for the national championship win against Memphis, their history is pretty clear. They get beat by lower seeds in huge upsets time and time again.
Who are you?!
I'm Kick Ass!
well, national prestige and seeding would disagree
this is a huge upset in the making
Who are you?!
I'm Kick Ass!
by TexasGarcia37 on Mar 27, 2011 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, eveyone has to cover their respective asses, thus...upset.
How often does all four #1 seeds go down?
Is this a failure of seeding or cognition and perception?
NCAA just tweeted they "think" it would only be the 2nd time in tourney history if it occurs.
- follow me @ http:/twitter.com/TXStampede
Happened in 2006
Florida, George Mason, LSU and UCLA.
UCLA vs. Florida in title game.
Gators champs as a 3 seed.
--AW--
Thanks, guys.
Looks like ‘mid-majors’ is a misnomer.
remember pre-tournament mantra
“no truly great teams this year”
Who are you?!
I'm Kick Ass!
by TexasGarcia37 on Mar 27, 2011 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions
True, I remember.
However, did the selection committee take that into account or just picked the usual suspects?
Despite their academic credentials, their picks seem amateurish and without much basketball insight. Maybe that’s just me.
80% of crowd
Is routing for KU but VCU fans are still louder. Love it!
by bballgrl on Mar 27, 2011 2:19 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I love seeing KU get blown up ..
… but you know why this might not be a good thing for UT, right? This means the Morris twins very well might return. Had they won and gotten to the championship game, I would think they’d be gone to the NBA. With a big meltdown like this, they might come back. Them leaving would be the best recruiting tale for the UT program in 2011-12. Either way, I love it that KU might get blown out by an #11 seed. I’m lovin’ it so far. Beautiful!
KU will make a run.
Anyone got a projection about how many points that will be?
I say 12.
Why did VCU just decide they need to drive inside?
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
Mo back on the side of the Jayhawks
Horrible start to the second half by VCU. Turnovers and fouls. And now a tech on Shaka Smart.
Home San Antonio crowd going wild.
--AW--
I guess three-pointers are so last half
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
let me help you out morris twins
when you hit someone on the arm in the act of shooting, it is called a foul. you do it alot so you should have figured it out by now.
Who are you?!
I'm Kick Ass!
VCU has weathered first KU run
Still lead at under 12 timeout.
There undoubtedly another coming. If KU ever does take the lead, the roof may get blown off the Alamodome.
--AW--
KU not moving the ball as crisply now as when they started the 2nd half.
- follow me @ http:/twitter.com/TXStampede
How many three-pointers has VCU attempted in the second half?
Anyone see that stat? I’m guessing they are 1 for 3.
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
One site says VCU is shooting .419 Gs, .526 3PTs
But that was all first half.
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
Amazing
Looks like they might be trying them again.
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
Love the outrage
From all the KU fans here at the game. It’s a lot of fun for me.
by bballgrl on Mar 27, 2011 3:16 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Rodriguez needs to run offense, not take uncalled for arc points.
- follow me @ http:/twitter.com/TXStampede
Up 9!!!!!!!, just 3:39 left
KU needs a bucket a stop and a bucket coming out of this tv timeout.
Jayhawks in real trouble.
--AW--
These Rams are shooting lights out from 3.
That’s the difference-maker in this game. KU can’t buy a bucket from downtown.
"Hey, don't y'all think that's beautiful right there? That crystal is SO beautiful. And it's coming home to Texas." - Vince Young
Whoa! Hello VCU cheerleader!
"Hey, don't y'all think that's beautiful right there? That crystal is SO beautiful. And it's coming home to Texas." - Vince Young
No, I think he's reached puberty
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
Actually yes
Stevens October 22, 1976
Smart April 8, 1977
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
What great hustle by both teams. Who runs out of gas first?
- follow me @ http:/twitter.com/TXStampede
Can you play the shot clock any better? What a pass for the layup at the buzzer.
- follow me @ http:/twitter.com/TXStampede
What incredible defense. Love that the refs are letting these guys play it out.
Way basketball out to be played under 2:00.
- follow me @ http:/twitter.com/TXStampede
Game over
We’ve known this all year, but the KU guards are nothing special.
Without Selby being good, it’s the Morris boys and some role players.
Morningstar and Reed were horrible today.
--AW--
Selby is the real disappointment
He was suppose to be Xavier Henry, only better.
Started the season suspended and never found his rhythm. He’ll be back in Lawrence next season. One and done: no chance.
--AW--
Self getting out-coached today or was it the KU team?
Love to hear the debate on this board.
- follow me @ http:/twitter.com/TXStampede
Pace
at the beginning was the big mistake, imo. Kansas needed to play inside-out. Instead, it looked like a Missouri game: all over the floor.
Talent differencial is a lot easier to overcome in a helter skelter game.
--AW--
KU went like 2 for 20 from deep and had a subpar day from the line.
They also missed several easy looks near the rim.
I don’t think it was coaching necessarily. When the open shots aren’t falling there isn’t much you can do.
Daaaaamn.
Big teams make big plays in big games. Kansas just isn’t making their shots.
"Hey, don't y'all think that's beautiful right there? That crystal is SO beautiful. And it's coming home to Texas." - Vince Young
Coach Shaka Smart
Where would you like me to back up this Brinks truck full of money?
Who are you?!
I'm Kick Ass!
Sucks that Butler and VCU have to play each other before the Final.
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
But that does guarantee a Cinderella in the championship game
by Hopkins Horn on Mar 27, 2011 3:37 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Shaka's pre-game locker speech was great
“Today we punch our ticket to the final four!” I was convinced, and the players were as well.
[signature under repair]
Do you guys think any of these players on VCU
will play in the NBA?
"Hey, don't y'all think that's beautiful right there? That crystal is SO beautiful. And it's coming home to Texas." - Vince Young
HAHAHA!
Say what you want about Barnes losing to lower seeded teams, but usually we’re talking about 4/5s or 8/9s.
Add VCU to the list of Bill Self epic failures in the tournament. Bucknell, Bradley, Northern Iowa, and now VCU.
by goingforthecorner on Mar 27, 2011 3:40 PM CDT reply actions
OK that just means Butler and VCU should be our model, not Kansas
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
Let em flow. Glad we get those birds at the FEC next season.
- follow me @ http:/twitter.com/TXStampede
Buzzer to Buzzer Beat Down of #1 Seed
I totally called it. Not really.
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
Awesome game
Maybe I need to find some tickets for Reliant now. I’d make a great VCU/Butler fan.
[signature under repair]
You can usually scalp tickets to the Monday night game
from fans of the teams that lose on Saturday. I did this a few years ago in Minnesota. Just head down to the stadium around the end of one of the games on Saturday. Or try stubhub.
by Reggieball on Mar 27, 2011 3:50 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Thanks, will try,
but I won’t be buying them live at Reliant. Harris County is very strict. I was thrown in the Astrodome jail 27 years ago for selling a ticket for $5 under face value – “Vending on county property without a license”. Beware of scalping in Houston!
[signature under repair]
Holy crap
Didn’t know they were so strict in Houston.
by Reggieball on Mar 27, 2011 4:24 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Morris brothers
Head between legs, wrapped in a towel.
Justice for their jerk attitudes this year
Nope.
Thomas Robinson’s mother and grandmother died within a week of each other around the time we played them.
by HornPossessed on Mar 27, 2011 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Wonder what Jay Bilas is thinking now
after going off on the committee for VCU even being in. They are in the Final Four now… WOW!
by goingforthecorner on Mar 27, 2011 3:43 PM CDT reply actions
He said that crow tastes a lot like chicken
I like long walks, especially when they are taken by people who annoy me.
Noel Coward
by beast in bama on Mar 27, 2011 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions
The thing is....
…Bilas still might have been correct, in terms of earning their way into the tournament, despite their run. PU just happened to pick on hell of a time to get hot as hell. Remember that George Mason was the subject of similar criticism on Selection Sunday in 2006.
by Hopkins Horn on Mar 27, 2011 3:51 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Bilas was correct then and now
Results after selections do not justify or refute actual selection.
Same reason you can’t judge the success of a conference based soley on tourney success.
--AW--
We discussed this the other day
and you are right. But regardless of the poor selections, it made for a great tourney.
by Infield Elephant on Mar 27, 2011 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Q for the Board:
Was Kansas’ season successful?
Conference title, conference tourney title, No. 1 seed, Elite Eight appearance.
No Final Four, though. No title.
--AW--
I thought there season was successful
They just weren’t on there A game. Look at all those 3’s they missed just like Texas against Arizona. Zona was shooting all day from the 3 line
By UT fan standards, their season was an abject failure of the highest degree.
Don’t make it to the final game and win it all then why the hell play.
- follow me @ http:/twitter.com/TXStampede
Not successful in KU fan's standards
if we had the season they had this year, I would consider it to be a resounding success considering we didn’t even start the season ranked.
No matter what team you are though, it sucks to be eliminated by a double-digit seed. It’s just embarrassing.
by goingforthecorner on Mar 27, 2011 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Successful from a birds eye view...yes
But they were gifted a free pass to the final four and did not cash in. If I’m a Kansafan, this loss ruins the season for me, much like last year’s loss to Northern Iowa.
Mr. Smart
I’ve got Columbia, Missouri on line 1, Knoxville, Tennessee on line 2.
I like long walks, especially when they are taken by people who annoy me.
Noel Coward
Butler/VCU will probably be a ratings nightmare for CBS
by goingforthecorner on Mar 27, 2011 3:50 PM CDT reply actions
Not necessarily
That being said, it will definitely be the first game of the doubleheader.
by Hopkins Horn on Mar 27, 2011 3:53 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
My heart says VCU but my head says Butler.
I’m only basing this on all the nerve endings in my gut, though.
Whoever said laughter is the best medicine had clearly never tasted Scotch.
Agreed. Butler seems invincible at this point.
Can’t really bet against them.
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
Kansas shot .091% 3PTs -- VCU .462%
I’m not tree surgeon, but that is an important stat.
"Football doesn't build character. It eliminates the weak ones." DKR
Paging Brooklyn Horn...
…and his thoughts on either Butler or PU having a chance to play for the championship…
by Hopkins Horn on Mar 27, 2011 3:54 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
That was so much fun!
We were sitting surrounded by KU fans cheering for VCU. It was great!
by bballgrl on Mar 27, 2011 4:26 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Teams that blew out their opponent the round before
Not doing so well the next time out. UNC struggling badly with UK’s defense.
You ain't hurt...
Resumes vs. stretch performance
It was clear that the committee based many selections on the performance of teams coming down the stretch – Texas a prime example. I am not condoning that and agree that the entire resume of a season should be determining factor for placement in the tourney, but it is worth noting how streaks and momentum really do often carry over. I suspect this March will cause future committees to continue with the same strategy.
The original bracket was disgusting in many ways, but this has been a good tournament. As AW noted above and before, they should not be justified by this, but I fear that most people will not view it that way.
by Infield Elephant on Mar 27, 2011 4:44 PM CDT reply actions
Except...
…that Colorado didn’t get in the tournament. And they finished awfully well. Probably well enough to take VCU’s spot.
Just a terrible job by the committee this year, in my opinion.
That said, it’s been a fantastic tourney so far. Really really fun to watch.
You ain't hurt...
Part of me
wants Kentucky to make it to the title game, just so I can more fervently root for VCU or Butler.
by Infield Elephant on Mar 27, 2011 5:33 PM CDT reply actions
Clark Kellogg
Is he the best CBS can do?
--AW--
by awiggo on Mar 27, 2011 5:45 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Heels threatening.
Too bad they keep blowing so many lucky breaks.
by Infield Elephant on Mar 27, 2011 5:49 PM CDT reply actions
Next season
do y’all think next year’s field will be similarly weak? What teams can you think of right now that should be dominant next year?
by goingforthecorner on Mar 27, 2011 5:49 PM CDT reply actions
If we keep Hammy and TT
along with Kabongo and Holmes, I’d say Texas.
/homerism
by Infield Elephant on Mar 27, 2011 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions
67-65 UK at the under-4 timeout
Yet another great game. Other than Texas’s loss, this has been one amazingly great tournament.
You ain't hurt...
Barnes
This is the Barnes pundits expected to see all season.
Much credit to his season long improvement. Really solid player now.
--AW--
by awiggo on Mar 27, 2011 5:55 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Maybe Rick should emphasize recruiting sharp three point shooters
threes are such a deadly weapon in college
by goingforthecorner on Mar 27, 2011 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions
but % is only half the story
we barely shoot threes (324th in the country in 3PT/FGA ratio). One reason is a lack of 3pt shooters. We have exactly 3 shooters on the entire roster that can be relied on to make threes consistently at all (Hammy, JCB, CoJo).
by goingforthecorner on Mar 27, 2011 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Okay, then why do we attempt so few threes?
Either we don’t have enough shooters or the shooters we do have don’t attempt enough (I’d say specifically Joseph in our case).
Again, we’re ranked 324 out of 345 in the ratio of our three point attempts to field goal attempts.
by goingforthecorner on Mar 27, 2011 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not sure what your criticism is here
That we should shoot more threes? I don’t think that’s the answer. It’s the ability to hit them that matters.
All I’m saying is that in the tournament when you’ve got a team that gets hot from downtown, they’re tough to beat. That’s what we saw today with VCU and Kentucky.
It does NOT mean that you should shoot more threes, just because.
You ain't hurt...
Not sure I see the logic here
If you have a 38% chance to score 50% more, then it’s worth pursuing. Of course, that assumes you’d maintain a 38% scoring rate, which is uncertain. But it shows why it is so deadly when it works. What was our FG% rate for the season. That would be kind of interesting.
Bingo
Not all three point attempts are created equal. Part of scoring efficiently is taking smart shots.
You ain't hurt...
A team that gets hot from downtown is not only tough to beat
but that’s how you have upsets, better teams losing because a team got hot from three.
I don’t see why we can’t capitalize more on the three point shot if we have three 3pt shooters that shoot fairly efficiently.
That we should shoot more threes? I don’t think that’s the answer. It’s the ability to hit them that matters.
Not when you barely attempt them. What good is being 100% from three if you only attempt say 5 a game? The three point shot is the most efficient shot in basketball, and we were one of the worst at attempting them – one of many issues we had on offense. And this includes some horrible three point attempts by Hamilton and Brown, so it wasn’t like every three we shot was a good attempt.
The more long range bombers you have on the court, the easier it gets for Thompson to do his thing in the paint. Having a penetrating guard like Kabongo next year will generate plenty of open looks from three. Hopefully we have more shooters, and it looks like we will.
by goingforthecorner on Mar 27, 2011 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Three is better than two
No doubt about that. Hell, I’d settle for guards that are willing to take ANY shot. Thinking Balbay, of course. Not having to guard 20% of the offense, opens up options for the defense. I am a master of the obvious and I know this.
On three point shots, the misses are also valuable
For the sake of argument, let’s assume that team A shoots 50% from 2, and only shoots 2 point shots. Team B shoots 33% from 3, and only shoots 3 point shots. Both teams average 1 point per shot.
Most college teams get roughly 30% of the rebounds when on offense. In our little thought experiment, we will also assume that neither team ever turns the ball over. So we can calculate each team’s FGA per possession as
FGA = 1 + ORB (eq 1)
where ORB = offensive rebounds per possession
We can also calculate ORB from the equation
ORB = FGAORB% (eq 2)
where FG% is the field goal percentage, and ORB% is the offensive rebounding percentage. Combine eqs 1 and 2, with a bit of algebra
FGA = 1/[1-(1-FG%)ORB%]
So now, we take Team A, that shoots 2’s and gets 30% of the offensive rebounds. They will get 1.18 FGA/possession, and 1.18 points per possession.
Team B, that shoots 3’s and gets 30% of the offensive rebounds, will get 1.25 points per possession.
Of course, this is really abstract, but I think it helps us think through why shooting some three’s is a good idea.
Interesting thought
I suppose you’d want to know whether ORB% is constant across attempts or whether it varies by kinds of attempt.
My instinct, though, is still that if your variance were to impact your percentages - and I presume this would impact both your two and three-point percentages — that your better off being appropriately selective.
Another factor to consider, at least where the NCAA Tournament is concerned, is that you can’t afford a bad night. That is, the math may justify shooting more threes, but when you can’t afford to lose a single game, you’re better off having the higher percentage play.
You ain't hurt...
More on 3 point shots and offensive rebounds
If we assume that ORB% stays the same on 2 and 3 point shots, then the higher your ORB% is, the more 3 point shots you want to take. If you don’t crash the offensive boards well, then the value of 3 point shots is reduced.
It is worth stating that this is not all hypothetical: Last year, the Duke Blue Devils had an ugly looking offense. But they hit 38% from the three point line, and they had a 40% ORB%. About 1/3 of their FGA’s were from 3. Put this all together, and you get the best offense in 2010 (per kenpom.com).
The 2011 Longhorns had a 37% ORB, and a 38% 3 point shooting percentage. But only 22% of our shots were from 3, so we ended up with the 21st rated offense via kenpom.com. (Our offense did better statistically than many of Barnes’ detractors will admit.)
My view is that your offensive system should really look to do two things, either get in as close to the rim as possible, or create wide open looks from three. The most dynamic offenses do both. At the rim, you get the highest FG% on the floor, as well as the greatest chances to get to the free throw line (the most efficient spot on the floor). The phrase that I have heard Calipari use is “key or three.” I am not a big fan of midrange shots, unless the shooter is very good (Jordan Hamilton qualifies).
On ORB% varying by type of attempt
I really have know idea on this one way or another. My intuition is that ORB% is probably highest on drives to the basket, where defenders have to leave their man to help out, and have a hard time boxing out. After that, it is probably on 3 point shots, with long rebounds that are more likely to result in 50/50 balls. Rhythm midrange shots (and of course, free throws) probably have the lowest ORB%, just because the defensive rebounders are more likely to be in position.
All that said...
I don’t favor just jacking up contested 3 point shots. But I think creating open looks from 3 should be a major goal for an offense.
Great discussion, reggieball
by Hopkins Horn on Mar 27, 2011 8:33 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Yep.
I do wish Butler and VCU could play each other for the ship, though.
by divinebovine on Mar 27, 2011 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions
If Calipari wasn't so freakin slimy
I would be happy right now. As it is, I hope UConn mops the floor with them.
You bring up a good point.
That is where I think the biggest farce with this year’s committee lies. While this is fun and all, it does tell you that it is not just which teams go it, but more so the seeds appointed that can make a huge difference.
Not to play my little violin or whatever, but if Texas had swapped with Florida, I could see us going far, probably losing to Butler. And that is something I would not have lost too much sleep over.
by Infield Elephant on Mar 27, 2011 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions
The seeds add up to 26
That has to be the highest ever, right?
by Hopkins Horn on Mar 27, 2011 8:32 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes
Previous high was 22 in 2000. (Michigan St, Florida, UNC and Wisconsin, I think.)
Also, first time EVER that no 1 or 2 seed makes the Final Four.
Kansas blog is funny
They are basically saying nobody wants to watch mid majors and they should not have to play them.
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