Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds, March 6
by awiggo on Mar 6, 2011 9:27 AM CST
in Texas Longhorns Basketball
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PrintIt’s March! It’s March! My favorite month of the year. Hope springs eternal for college basketball fans from across the country as every team has a shot via their conference tournament and the NCAA tournament to become national champions by winning on the court, not via computers or pollsters. It literally doesn’t get any better than this.
The major conference tournaments tip-off on Tuesday (Big East), Wednesday (Pac 10 and Big 12), and Thursday (Big 10, ACC, and SEC). While the other conference tournaments are already underway with final coming early this week.
A few teams have already punched their tickets to the dance. Congrats to Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UNC Ashville (Big South), and Morehead State (Ohio Valley).
As a reminder, the top teams are gunning for protected seeds in the these four regionals: Newark (East), New Orleans (Southeast), San Antonio (Southwest), and Anaheim (West). Anaheim and New Orleans are Thursday / Saturday regionals; Newark and San Antonio are Friday / Sunday regionals
The second and third round (the NCAA is now considering the play-in games round one) in eight spots across the country. Thursday / Saturday host sites include Washington DC, Tampa, Denver, and Tucson. Friday / Sunday host sites include Charlotte, Cleveland, Chicago, and Tulsa.
Here are my ‘educated’ guesses at the top 16 teams in the NCAA tournament. These are listed (1) as if the season ended today and (2) by strength within each seed. I honestly don’t think that Notre Dame will end up with a No. 1 seed unless they (a) win the Big East tournament or (b) reach the Big East finals and no one on the two line wins their respective conference tournament.
No. 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
No. 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, BYU, North Carolina
No. 3 Seeds: Purdue, San Diego State, Wisconsin, Syracuse
No. 4 Seeds: Louisville, Florida, Georgetown, Kentucky
Next Four: St. John’s, Arizona, Connecticut, West Virginia
Big 12 Bids (6)
Lock: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State
Highly Likely: Missouri
On the Bubble: Colorado, Baylor
Bubble Burst: Nebraska
Thoughts?
Other Sites to Visit: Blogging the Bracket / ESPN’s Bracketology / Bracket Matrix
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A&M
How are they a lock? It seems that they have been a lock all season, yet they haven’t done anything?
Yeah
Aggies are absolutely fine.
The are about a six or seven seed right now. At least 20 at-large teams worse.
--AW--
BU/A&M
BU beat A&M twice but A&M will get to go. It just seems odd.
It's very much of a reflection on BU's wild inconsistency,
as well as Scott Drew’s inability to coach.
"Coaching a football team is the most engrossing thing in the world. It is playing chess with human pawns." --Walter Camp
by K. Scott Bailey on Mar 6, 2011 8:14 PM CST up reply actions
Overall season
not just the two head to head meetings. A&M won 10 games in conference, is #30 in RPI, #47 in KemPom, and has wins over Washington, Missouri, and K State.
Baylor finished 7-9 in conference and is #83 in RPI and #67 in KemPom. Yes, they do have two wins over the Aggies but little else. They lost to the only three decent teams they played out of confernce and also have horrible losses to Iowa State, OU, and Tech.
--AW--
Any chance that we could jump back to the 1 seed spot with a win over KU in the conference tournament finals? Possibly jump Duke and ND if they falter early, or maybe even take KU’s 1 seed?
Where do you see us ending up if we are the first or second best 2 seed?
shooting
if Texas can start shooting better they might have a chance against KU.
The problem is it seems Kansas will be the 1 seed in the SA regional
…..and Texas is not getting slotted there if Kansas is the 1 seed there.
Texas fans will have to hope the committee finds an excuse to slot Kansas in the Anaheim or New Orleans regions, that then would open the door for Texas to be in SA….say as a 2 seed.
Unlikely to get San Antonio
but not totally out of the question. In order for Texas to get in the San Antonio regional, Texas would have to be a No. 1 seed and above Kansas if the Jayhawks were also a No. 1. The commitee tries to keep No. 1 seeds as close to home as possible. OR Texas could be a No. 2 seed and have a different team than Kansas be the No. 1 seed in the San Antonio regional. I guess this could happen but it is not likely.
I do think the fourth No. 1 seed is completely up in the air though. If Texas were to win the Big 12 tournament, they’d have as good an argument as Duke or BYU or Notre Dame to claim the fourth No. 1 seed. The problem is even if Texas gets a No. 1 seed, if they are the fourth No. 1 seed, then it is probably Anaheim.
--AW--
If we beat Kansas for a second time to win the B12 tourney
We’re the No. 1 in San Antonio. Feel pretty good about that.
You ain't hurt...
Agreed
That would mean a nice run of (likely) Baylor, A&M/Mizzou, and KU. That should be enough.
Another thought: Our tourney final is on Saturday. So often when there are Sunday conf. finals the committee seems to have made up their mind regardless of those last tourney finals games (they tend to end right when the selection show begins). If we run it and beat KU in the B12 final, that would give them plenty of time to consider the Texas win. Does that make any sense?
We're going to play like we're in a bad mood.
Historically Speaking - don't think so
I remember the last time the Horns went to San Antonio – the Big XII championship was too late in the process to impact the NCAA seedings. That time it worked in our favor as we got the number 1 seed and KU got shipped out.
Note to Bill Byrne "Because you aren´t Texas and you´ll never be Texas"
You are more confident than I am
Kansas is much closer to the No. 1 overall seed than they are the two line. I would go so far to say that they could probably lose in the quarterfinals and still get a No. 1 seed.
Kansas is 2 in Kem Pom, 2 in Sagarin, and 1 in RPI. They won their conference and have only two overall losses.
Yes, Texas could get a No. 1 with a Big 12 tournament title, something we’ve never done by the way, but I would still not be certain we would be awarded San Antonio. Fingers crossed though.
--AW--
1 seed out West
Is the best we can get if somehow we win the big 12 tourney
by jtdoes on Mar 6, 2011 11:14 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Thanks, awiggo. You've done a hell of a job projecting this season and clarifying the overall.
I think the freshmen just grew up…Hammy looks like he hit the wall and I’m hoping he can catch his breath and re-direct himself. It’s easy to forget these are just kids in a hell of a pressure cooker that few 18-19 year-old players could endure as well.
I know people might compare to Michigan fab five that made it seem easy, but teams now have much more sophisticated video tools and informational resources to break down their opponents in their second conference game, not to mention the inevitable wear-and-tear of the season when shooting percentages always go down as legs get tired. The psychological hurdles are enormous for young inexperienced players. Jeez, if we had these guys for several more years when they know the process…
I have to strongly agree
with UNC being a 2 seed. Even though they won the conference, I dont see how SDSU isnt a #2 seed.
Duke Texas BYU SDSU seems more likely. Im guessing Duke will win their tournament as well, so I think the dukies become a #1 seed and ND becomes a #2 seed
Has SDSU beaten anyone ranked?
They have played top level competition twice (both BYU games) and were slaughtered both times. I don’t think they’re a better team that a North Carolina who won a difficult ACC.
by LouisianaTexan on Mar 6, 2011 7:21 PM CST up reply actions
No they didn't.
BYU beat them by 13 points both times they played.
"Coaching a football team is the most engrossing thing in the world. It is playing chess with human pawns." --Walter Camp
by K. Scott Bailey on Mar 6, 2011 8:16 PM CST up reply actions
SDSU
is solid but Carolina is the hottest team in the country right now. Carolina won their league outright.
SDSU lost to BYU twice but does have two wins over New Mexico and two wins over UNLV. SDSU also beat both Gonzaga and Santa Clara in non conference. They are #3 in RPI and #9 in Kem Pom.
Their overall resume is actually fine.
Carolina has wins over Duke, Kentucky, and two over Fl State. #6 in RPI and #10 in Kem Pom.
It’s close but I’m going with UNC right now.
--AW--
Notre Dame
How many games in the Big East tournament does Notre Dame have to win to get that #1 seed?
I think all of them.
If they win it, they get a #1. Otherwise, I think Dook (unfortunately) will get it alongside Ohio State, Kansas, and Pitt.
"Coaching a football team is the most engrossing thing in the world. It is playing chess with human pawns." --Walter Camp
by K. Scott Bailey on Mar 6, 2011 8:17 PM CST up reply actions
A Big East tournament title
probalby clinches a No. 1. If they reach the finals and lose to Pitt and if Duke, Texas, and Purdue all fail to win their conference titles, then ND might still get a No 1. Carolina would have a shot too if they win the ACC tournament, especially if that includes another win over Duke.
BTW, I hate ND and it was tough for me to slot them there and will be even tougher to write them across my bracket. But they are really good.
--AW--
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