Way too early bowl predictions
by BMG on Jun 20, 2011 4:33 PM CDT
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PrintJust days after the bowl schedule was annouced, Pete Fiutak of FoxSports.com has published his bowl predictions: Fox Bowl Predictions. The Cliff's notes are as follows:
- Big 12 - 2 sends 6 teams, including two (OU and OSU) to BCS bowls.
- Texas to the Cotton Bowl vs Auburn
- A&M to the Alamo Bowl vs Arizona State
- Bama and OU in the BCS Championship game
- Oregon returns to the BCS to square off against tOSU in the Rose Bowl
- Boise State still makes a BCS bowl without Harsin, but potentially wth your Heisman Trophy winner Kellen Moore
Personally, I don't believe Texas has any shot of being the Big 12-2's 3rd best team. At a minimum, this will require us to beat A&M on the road and if anyone between Tech, Mizzou, or Baylor over-achieve you have to beat 2 of 3 of those. Texas in the Alamo Bowl or possibly the Holiday Bowl is more realistic. I'm fine with OU and OSU in BCS bowls, they will feast on a mediocre Big 12-2.
Outside of the Big 12-2, Bama in the MNC game seems like a stretch. The incoming QB is a talented youngster (heard that one before?) and there is talent to fill in the gaps left behind by Dareus, Ingram et al. While the SEC might have another down year, it will still be tough. While Bama coaching staff is better than Texas' was last year, I would not put it past Bama to have some issues turning over this team's talent base to a younger group. LSU seems to be a better position to reach the MNC out of the SEC.
Besides Texas, the biggest headscratcher to me is Auburn. Far and away the two best players on that team are gone and yet Auburn still finishes in the top half of the SEC? I think you are more likely to see Miss State in the Cotton Bowl, and not the Gator Bowl. As far as Auburn goes, I'm expecting a Texas-style drop-off. They will be scratching for a bowl game this year (you heard it hear first).
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Way too hard to say
There’s just too many unknowns going into this season. More than we’ve ever seen (at least in the MB era). Who knows what kind of team will take the field? Brand new offense, defense, players, unknown QB – no point in speculating. We’ll probably have a better idea come fall camp.
Things happen, though. Who knew Colt McCoy was going to be so good so quickly? Who knew we’d go 5-7 last year? What if Harsinwhite pumps out 500 yards/game like at Boise St? And who knows what Diaz can do with superior talent? Just way too many unknowns.
Not only the unknowns
For tx to win 9 games it isn’t a matter of a single under-performing unit turning things around, it’s all of them. Simply to much to ask for, too quickly. 7 wins is a reasonable expectation from what will be an inconsistent team.
by BMG on Jun 20, 2011 5:45 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Remember that you don't have to be the third best team to be the third bowl choice.
The bowls can choose teams with lesser records.
maybe
in the old big 12 system, if two teams are separated by a game in the division standings and the team with more losses happened to win the head to head. But keep in mind that was an unbalanced schedule because south teams didn’t play the same north schedule. With the new round-robin format tied records will be more of the norm and with a balanced schedule I highly doubt you will see the team with the lesser record in a better bowl than someone above them.
Disagree - I think there is no way that a bowl picks a northern school over Texas, even they have a better record - if both are available.
by Texas Wahoo on Jun 21, 2011 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
You'd also have to consider ...
… that bowls usually don’t like to pick repeat teams, when there is another option. Yeah, probably Texas gets picked over anyone else but generally the bowl hosts like a new matchup from year to year.
Right.
My only point was that being the 3rd team selected by a bowl does not equal being the third best team.
by Texas Wahoo on Jun 22, 2011 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Facts suggest otherwise...
Wahoo – Contrary to what you said there are very recent examples ofTexas NOT being taken by bowls ahead of teams from the north with better records. Case in point, 2006 when Texas went to the Alamo Bowl. Texas finishes regular season 9-3. Nebraska wins the north (9-3) and loses the Big 12 title game. Nebraska goes to the Cotton Bowl, not Texas. Oh and for good measure, Texas had won the head-to-head in Lincoln. Additionally, A&M leapfrogged Texas and got into the Holiday Bowl which at the time was a better bowl than the Alamo Bowl. (Not the case anymore after the Alamo Bowl increased its payout by $3M and is committed to PAC12 #2 vs Big12 #3)
The original point, however, was that Texas would need to win more than 6 or 7 games to go to the Cotton Bowl in the new Big 12-2 round robin format, and I stand by it. Consider that there has only been one Big12 team in the last 8 seasons to get an invite to the Cotton Bowl with 7 regular season victories – the 2004 aggies. That year, both Texas and OU went to BCS games, the north sucked, and A&M finished in a tie for 3rd w/ Tech in the south. Tech had the better overall record, but A&M beat Tech head-to-head and they had the same conference record, so A&M got the nod. Actually, aside from A&M that year, Texas was the last team to go to the Cotton Bowl with less than 9 regular season victories back in 1998 (well before we added the 12th regular season game). Every other Big 12 team to make the Cotton Bowl over the past 13 seasons won at least 9 games. Texas went to 3 of those games – and many of those years, Texas was available to be picked up but a better ranked team from the south or the north was taken.
In case there is any doubt, the Cotton Bowl is the best non-BCS bowl game a Big 12-2 team can make due to the payout (over $7M), the exposure of being played on its own night in primetime @ Jerry’s World, and that it occurs after Jan 1st.
You may recall that Nebraska is no longer in the conference.
Find me an example of a Kansas team, Mizzou, or Iowa state being chosen above Texas with a record separated by only one game.
changing the rules?
The fact that Nebraska isn’t in the Big 12 anymore is irrelevant. But you didn’t think that was the only example, did you?
2007. Texas ended the regular season with 3 losses, Missouri lost the Big 12 Championship and entered bowl selection day with 2 losses. Missouri to the Cotton, Texas to the Holiday Bowl. North team had the better record, and lo and behold, got the better bowl game.
2000. Texas was 7-1 in conference and had an OOC loss. Entered bowl season 9-2. K-State was 6-2 in conference and entered bowl season 10-3 (they played an additional OOC game and also lost the Big 12 championship). K-State went to the Cotton Bowl, Texas to the Holiday Bowl. North team had the worse record by virtue of the extra loss, yet they got the better bowl. Just in case you are wondering, K-State’ OOC record was nothing to write home about, they played 4 unranked teams. Oddly enough, the Cotton Bowl passed on here too.
I’m not going to deny that there are scenarios where the #3 team in the conference (by record) is not 3rd team chosen for a bowl, it happens occassionally but due to reasons like a certain team has played in that bowl one or more times recently. The idea that Texas is so coveted by bowls that it gets taken ahead of other teams in the Big 12 who have better or same records is simply false, or at best an opinion that is not supported by the recent history of the Mack Brown era. All big 12 teams, save for maybe Iowa State, travel well to destinations like San Diego, Dallas, and San Antonio. Where Texas has the advantage is in at-large BCS selections. Here, our name, tradition, conference strength and reputation trumps lesser programs with same or better records.
to be clear
the last sentence should say “lesser programs in other conferences”…I figure you get what i’m trying to say.
Not really wanting to get into the argument but ...
… Texas & OU regularly get higher poll / BCS rankings (er, overratings) due to name recognition & prior years’ success. Then, those higher rankings tend to get them selected for better bowls over lesser recognized teams. Fan-followings & TV ratings factor less than poll rankings & conference finish do. The other big factor would be that bowls like to alternate teams’ yearly appearances in their bowls.
Not trying to prove either of you wrong or right. I just think that name-recognition doesn’t blatantly give Texas a leg up. It’s the indirect name-recognition in national polls that gives the more storied programs the leg up.
Mizzou has been passed over for teams with worse conference records each of the last two years.
Texas won’t always be picked first – but they generally will.
by Texas Wahoo on Jun 25, 2011 12:28 AM CDT up reply actions
We could sit here and pick out all of the times teams from the South have been picked over teams from the North minus Nebraska and times that they haven't.
I maintain that generally teams from the south are picked over teams from the North with the same or close to the same record. I don’t count Nebraska because they get similar treatment from the bowls as the southern teams (unlike say Missouri). Sure, you can pick a year when Missouri had two more wins in conference than Texas and got picked ahead of Texas – but there’s always a tipping point.
by Texas Wahoo on Jun 25, 2011 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions
And I agree that no one is going to the Cotton bowl with 7 wins.
I don’t think anyone would argue otherwise.
Ya never know.
Gilbert wins the Heisman, Gideon wins the Thorpe, 0U tanks it, and UT goes undefeated. Mark it down!
Hey, in the “Way too early” predictions, we can all dream, eh?
They'll make a bowl
And will surprise a lot of people. They didn’t forget how to play defense in Columbus. I’d say it’s a stretch to put them in the Rose Bowl with a freshman QB, though. But finishing at least 2nd or 3rd in that conference is a virtual guarantee; even with suspensions they still have the most talented roster in the Big 10.
Simplicity is always the secret, to a profound truth, to doing things, to writing, to painting. Life is profound in its simplicity. - Charles Bukowski
by windycityhorn on Jun 22, 2011 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions
I always thought that Pryor made them a worse offensive team.
I don’t know the reality up there & really don’t care enough about the point to look up numbers but I though their offense was so boring & maybe disappointing whenever Pryor was their QB. They looked so much better when a senior passing Troy Smith was there or even when Krenzel or Boeckman were managing the game. Seems like they had a little more punch and consistency when the QB wasn’t quite as talented as a runner.
Yes, offenses typically look much better with Heisman contenders at QB ;)
This is like O. Henry and Alanis Morrisette had a baby, and named it "This Exact Situation."
by burntorangehorn on Jun 22, 2011 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
He was a poor fit for the OSU system
Even though Pryor brought the ability to make a first down out of nothing with his feet, his inaccuracy hurt the team and probably cost them the Wisconsin game last season. His NFL future, I fear, is limited.
I don’t know any Bucks fans who were ever completely sold on Pryor. But most of them are very excited about Braxton Miller.
Simplicity is always the secret, to a profound truth, to doing things, to writing, to painting. Life is profound in its simplicity. - Charles Bukowski
by windycityhorn on Jun 22, 2011 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions
LSU @ QB????????..nt
"Nobody leaves this field until we beat the hell out of them".................... L.J."Louis"Jordan in 1913 before kickoff of the Texas/ou game.
LSU was 11-2 last year...
QB play be damned, they can win 11 games with defense, special teams, and the occassional offensive score. However, they also brought in Steve Kragthorpe as their new OC and landed a QB transfer from Georgia.
LSU has 10 starters back on defense and 8 on offense. Now consider Bama & Auburn lost way more talent than LSU did, and you can see why LSU winning the west isn’t a stretch by any means and they will be ranked in the top 5 to start the season.
The darkhorse in the SEC west is Arkansas because Tyler Wilson looked very good last year when Mallett came out of a couple of games.
You know
sometimes you have to look outside your second(UT=#1)favorite team(LSU) to see the light…….Thanks BMG
"Nobody leaves this field until we beat the hell out of them".................... L.J."Louis"Jordan in 1913 before kickoff of the Texas/ou game.
by ouALWAYSsux on Jun 23, 2011 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
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