Oversigning Update: To the Cheaters belong the Bowls
by joefromboalsburg on Jan 7, 2012 6:30 PM CST
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Oversigning is a clear-cut competitive advantage that drastically tips the playing field in favor of the, for lack of a better word, Cheater. (I realize that there are glaring loopholes in this rule, so cheating is not the legally correct word.)
The results of oversigning on competitive balance are clearly shown by analyzing the results of this year’s bowl games. Teams offering more scholarships than their opponents went 15-4 in this year’s bowls. Almost all of these bowl winners are oversigning cheaters.
The website oversigning.com compiles data on most major teams in the country, listing the number of scholarships granted per year since 2002. The table below lists the number of scholarships granted during the last five years for this year’s bowl opponents, instead of the score. The results show, without doubt, that oversigning tilts the field in favor of the team offering the most scholarships.
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|
Winner |
Loser |
Diff |
||
|
Miss State |
137 |
W Forest |
94 |
43 |
|
Auburn |
144 |
Virginia |
108 |
36 |
|
OK State |
133 |
Stanford |
99 |
34 |
|
Tx A&M |
116 |
NW |
91 |
25 |
|
Florida |
120 |
Ohio St |
98 |
22 |
|
W Va |
121 |
Clemson |
103 |
18 |
|
Fl State |
127 |
Notre D |
110 |
17 |
|
Illinois |
120 |
UCLA |
106 |
14 |
|
OKLA |
122 |
Iowa |
109 |
13 |
|
S Carolina |
130 |
Nebraska |
118 |
12 |
|
Cincy |
113 |
Vandy |
102 |
11 |
|
Oregon |
121 |
Wisconsin |
112 |
9 |
|
Baylor |
132 |
Wash |
125 |
7 |
|
Texas |
111 |
Cal |
108 |
3 |
|
Mich St |
116 |
Georgia |
114 |
2 |
|
Missouri |
124 |
North Car |
126 |
-2 |
|
Arkansas |
135 |
K State |
139 |
-4 |
|
Michigan |
112 |
Va Tech |
122 |
-10 |
|
Rutgers |
116 |
Iowa St |
134 |
-18 |
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This table includes only those games where both teams data are available on oversigning.com. If strict adherence to the NCAA 85/25 rule was adhered to, the maximum number of schollys would be 85 plus 25 over five years, or 110.
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The SEC, which clearly leads the country in oversigning, boasts of producing the BCS Champion for the last six years. Looking at this data, it can be argued that any SEC team that loses a non-conference game or a bowl game should fire their coach! I have highlighted teams with more than 115 scholarships granted during the last five years, which is ‘cheating’ by one per year. Of the nineteen bowl winners on this list, only Texas and Michigan fall into the Non-Cheater category.
In my opinion, this situation should be changed, so that all teams are compelled to play by the same rules.
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"If strict adherence to the NCAA 85/25 rule was adhered to, the maximum number of schollys would be 85 plus 25 over five years, or 110."
That’s probably not true. If the rules didn’t allow teams to sign more players than 110 every five years then those teams that did so, including Texas, would be penalized.
Since those teams, to the best of my knowledge, have not been penalized for breaking the rules, it’s probably more a case of where you just don’t understand the rules.
It seems to be a wide-open loophole, and it needs to be closed.
"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'"
― Isaac Asimov
by burntorangehorn on Jan 9, 2012 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, JPSANTINI, 25+25+25+25 does not equal 85, even in Mississippi.
Son of an Infidel.....Eater of Vegetables!
by joefromboalsburg on Jan 9, 2012 6:54 PM CST up reply actions
They had a rule limiting signings in basketball
It didn’t work. As soon as big schools started getting in trouble, they dumped it.
by BobInHouston on Jan 10, 2012 7:36 PM CST up reply actions
You get to give more scholarships when you kick kids off the team who can't make the depth chart.
These schools, the worst ones, have the equivalent of one extra class every four years because they throw kids off the team, for football reasons, not for academic reasons.
Son of an Infidel.....Eater of Vegetables!
by joefromboalsburg on Jan 9, 2012 6:58 PM CST up reply actions
"Of the nineteen bowl winners on this list, only Texas and Michigan fall into the Non-Cheater category."
What? You just said that NCAA rules allow only 110 signings in any five-year period and Texas, according to your numbers, signed 111 during the previous five-year period. This means that, according to you, Texas cheated during one of those years.
IYO, should Texas have fired its head coach the year it cheated or does it get an exemption for some reason? Or maybe you think teams should be allowed to cheat one (or two or three) years out of every five?
Can you explain the reason that you believe Texas didn’t cheat one year out of the last five given your definition for cheating?
I think he's doing some bad math
25 * 5 = 125. If attrition is less than that, there’s another story. Another thing to consider is that juco guys will turn over faster, so that can boost the numbers, although that’s not the case with Texas, which didn’t award any juco scholarships over that time. Yet another number-skewer is the number of walk-ons who earn scholarships. When guys like Ahmard Hall, Marcus Griffin, and Marquise Goodwin earn a scholarship after having walked on, they don’t count against the class scholarships, but do count toward the annual limit at the time they are awarded the scholly.
"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'"
― Isaac Asimov
by burntorangehorn on Jan 9, 2012 1:57 PM CST up reply actions
I figured 4th year at 85, then max after that
Son of an Infidel.....Eater of Vegetables!
by joefromboalsburg on Jan 9, 2012 6:49 PM CST up reply actions
You are worrying about nothing
Mike Slive said he is cleaning up the SEC, so we really have absolutely nothing to worry about since he is right on top of it.
We're Texas, We're not OK.
I hope you are right. The SEC is trying to get a handle on this.
But all of the coaches in the SEC call it ‘managing’ the roster…….which is code for kicking off sophmores and juniors who cannot make the depth chart.
Son of an Infidel.....Eater of Vegetables!
by joefromboalsburg on Jan 9, 2012 6:53 PM CST up reply actions
This argument looks silly
When plenty of the losers also were guilty of over-signing as well. It makes for a cute comparison, but if so many teams are doing it what is the downside?
by BMG on Jan 9, 2012 4:22 PM CST via mobile reply actions
The argument is that if you had more scholarships than your competitor, you won.
My 110 number is just an arbitrary line that I drew, being one over the limit each year allowing for death, famine, and locusts. Nonetheless, 15 of 19 contests were won by the school having more scholarships granted over the last five years. You may think it is a coincidence. I, on the other hand, have my aluminum foil protection against such silly thinking.
Son of an Infidel.....Eater of Vegetables!
by joefromboalsburg on Jan 9, 2012 6:51 PM CST up reply actions
My "Cheater" Definition was Arbitrary, 115 instead of 110 over 5 years.
Son of an Infidel.....Eater of Vegetables!
by joefromboalsburg on Jan 9, 2012 6:55 PM CST up reply actions
The downsides are circumvention of the intent of scholarship limits and poor treatment of some college athletes
"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'"
― Isaac Asimov
by burntorangehorn on Jan 11, 2012 10:29 AM CST up reply actions
I think this is great first stab at analysis here.
Love seeing quantitative arguments made.
I told the people of my district that I would serve them as faithfully as I had done; but if not ... you may all go to hell, and I will go to Texas. -- Davey Crockett
by pleaseplaykindle on Jan 9, 2012 7:58 PM CST reply actions
That was not meant to sound anything but complimentary, btw.
You should see if you can figure out what each additional scholarship beyond the NCAA minmum is worth in terms of wins. From your post above, winning in bowl games (where the matchups are most even) appears to be highly correlated to the number of scholarship offers.
I told the people of my district that I would serve them as faithfully as I had done; but if not ... you may all go to hell, and I will go to Texas. -- Davey Crockett
by pleaseplaykindle on Jan 9, 2012 8:00 PM CST up reply actions
This is interesting, but...
You should probably just stick to 110 as the definition of “cheater” (85 max and assume that 25 enter and exit each year).
I could see also coaching changes and other blips (read: 5-7 seasons) skewing the results so some sort of rolling average would help smooth those out and identify who uses over-signing as an on-going tactic (SEC, K-State?) and who is working through a regime change (Iowa State?).
Nonetheless, it’s pretty amazing how low some of the Big 10 programs are and how high some of the Big 12 programs.
UPDATE....BAMA vs LSU.... now 16-4!
Bama 136, beats LSU 131.
So, the bowl season ends with 80% of the wins being corelated to having more scholarships than your opponent.
Either Vegas or the NCAA should get a handle on this.
Son of an Infidel.....Eater of Vegetables!
by joefromboalsburg on Jan 13, 2012 6:09 PM CST reply actions
Haven't seen this mentioned yet....
Has anyone figured out that the schools with the lower figures are typically considered more “academic” and have higher graduation rates. This must a key contributer to how many scholarships are given in a 5 year period.
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