Texas Recruiting 2013: First Junior Day Defensive Predictions
by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Feb 10, 2012 11:38 AM CST
in Texas Longhorns Recruiting
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PrintNo Big Boards yet, as I don't feel like messing with the formatting right now, but I'll work on getting them out next week. For now, enjoy some J-Day predictions for the weekend. A couple notes -- the predictions are simply educated guesses in most cases, as are the favorites for most of these kids and the offer is whether they are expected to receive one, but whether they already have one. --Wescott
Justin Manning, Dallas Kimball DT
Offer? Lock
J-Day commitment? 10%
Overall odds: 50%
Favorites: Texas, Oklahoma, LSU
Quick take: Manning has said that he's open early in the process, which is good news for Texas considering his older brother went to Oklahoma. However, it's not clear just how much he likes the Longhorns, so there's some mystery with this one early.
Vincent Taylor, SA Madison DL
Offer? Unlikely
J-Day commitment: 10%
Overall odds: 40%
Favorites: LSU, Baylor
Quick take: A Louisiana native, Taylor doesn't seem to have any special affinity for Texas and may be a better fit in a 3-4 defense. Add in the fact that he didn't make the expected sophomore to junior leap many expected and Taylor looks more and more like a guy the 'Horns will continue to evaluate.
Naashon Hughes, Harker Heights OLB/DE
Offer? Likely
J-Day commitment: 50%
Overall odds: 90%
Favorites: Texas
Quick take: Like his teammate Darius James, Hughes is sounding like he plans on taking other visits and has said that the best decision for his brother isn't necessarily the best for him. As with most of the offensive lineman, Hughes will most likely end up a Longhorn at some point if he gets an offer, but isn't nearly as likely to commit this weekend as he seemed weeks ago.
Ricky Seals-Jones, Sealy ATH
Offer? Lock
J-Day commitment: 33%
Overall odds: 80%
Favorites: LSU and Texas.
Quick take: It looks like LSU is the main competition for Texas at this point. This is starting to sound old by now, but this one probably doesn't go down this weekend, though the 'Horns seem like the heavy favorites.
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Im suprised
Usually Texas loads up at Jr day. Why don’t you think there are many this year?
As many visitors or possible commitments?
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by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Feb 10, 2012 11:48 AM CST up reply actions
Could just be a coincidence.
Could partly be a factor of not having those couple kids who are kind of lazy takes, but will commit on the spot. It could also be that there is a growing trend of kids not committing on Junior Days, but instead waiting to look around more to do their due diligence. Not sure it’s any one thing, but a number of different factors.
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by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Feb 10, 2012 12:00 PM CST up reply actions
I am very happy about this
Could partly be a factor of not having those couple kids who are kind of lazy takes, but will commit on the spot.
I said it on here many times that we needed to stop offering questionable kids just for the momentum, Olinmen Hutchins and Doyle were perfect examples of this, both of these kids were the lowest ranked kids in the the 2011 UT recruiting class (except Hutchins had an okay grade on 247 for some reason) and they were the first to commit, and if I recall one of them was severely injured at the time.
They both received a redshirt, and I hope they will help contribute but it doesn’t look likely. And while I realize rankings aren’t everything, I do find it telling that these two recruits were the only two 2011 UT commits that failed to receive a four star rating in any of the 4 major recruiting websites (Scout, 247, Rivals, ESPN).
I can stomach taking a lower ranked kid like Cotrell (who was a bit of a reach) since we waited around on MEJ and Toshiro (who appeared LSU bound), but early offers to kids that won’t even sniff 4 star status just seems extremely lazy for a top tier program like UT.
And fyi, if the staff is going to get a few lazy takes it should absolutely not be offensive lineman, and bad O lineman is just dead weight on the team depth chart, and while they do tend to have good grade and stay out of trouble more than other positions, they also are less likely to transfer for playing time.
"We are who we are. People say what they say. The outcome is the outcome. We are proud of ourselves." -DeLoss Dodds 9/21/2011
Way too early to think Hutchins and Doyle won't contribute
They redshirted like OL are supposed to. One of the Humidor posts said that Searels was impressed with Hutchins.
Keep in mind that P. Kelley (local kid), J. Harris (Kennedy special) and E. Acho (nepotism) were all considered lazy offers at one time.
I don't think Doyle
will ever contribute at Texas, unless he has significantly improved his conditioning and movement since I saw him in 2010, when he looked pretty terrible.
I would be surprised and probably mildly shocked if Hutchins ever does, but at least he has the athleticism, he just needs the wait. I still think the coaches should look at him in the Poehlmann role.
Follow me on Twitter: @GhostofBigRoy
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by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Feb 10, 2012 2:12 PM CST up reply actions
Mack also said we should watch for Hutchins
but I’m not holding my breath. Its still hard to argue that they weren’t lazy takes even if they do end up contributing…
"We are who we are. People say what they say. The outcome is the outcome. We are proud of ourselves." -DeLoss Dodds 9/21/2011
Exactly
Just because someone doesn’t pan out doesn’t make him a lazy take. The misconception seems to be that a recruit is a just-add-water situation, and presto, he becomes whatever he was going to be, regardless of circumstances.
"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'"
― Isaac Asimov
by burntorangehorn on Feb 11, 2012 10:23 AM CST up reply actions
Using a JD recruit's offer list isn't accurate
A lot of those schools also offered very early, and we all know Hutch would have been run out of USC with their scholly restrictions…and scholarships offers are not always verified…
Feel free to disagree but like I said, Hutch and Doyle were the only two recruits in that class that weren’t ranked four stars by any of the four recruiting services, that hard to argue with, and if you do you’re pretty much defending Mac McWorter as a recruiter…
"We are who we are. People say what they say. The outcome is the outcome. We are proud of ourselves." -DeLoss Dodds 9/21/2011
Definitely not trying to defend any coach
I’m saying a lot more than what can be seen in evaluations, even sound and in-depth ones, determines a recruit’s eventual success. That’s why you see three-star guys becoming all-americans and early NFL draft picks at Wisconsin and Iowa, among other places.
"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'"
― Isaac Asimov
by burntorangehorn on Feb 12, 2012 12:32 PM CST up reply actions
could be
These kids saw what happened with T Johnson and have decided to make sure Texas is the school for them or simply they want to go on other visits and simply have a good time. They realize signing now could jeopardize their Texas offer if they decide they want to participate in the recruiting fun. In the end, I can not blame them for that. I would do it
I think those sentiments have perhaps been building for a while.
So I’m not sure that Johnson specifically caused most of that, but he certainly added a data point for others to consider.
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by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Feb 10, 2012 1:06 PM CST up reply actions
Only recruits of DGB-esque stature can write their own ticket like that IMO.
Everyone not 5 or high 4 star better find a chair before the music stops.
"They can't all be winners!" - Bad Santa
What's the odds on getting Harris?
I know its early and he’s not a JD attendee, but he’s already made multiple visits to the 40 and I believe he was talking about coming in for the spring game…
"We are who we are. People say what they say. The outcome is the outcome. We are proud of ourselves." -DeLoss Dodds 9/21/2011
With Harris
I think Texas is in as good of shape as possible given his multiple visits to campus already, but it’s going to be really hard to get a Florida kid out of state, especially given that his father is a Gator.
Follow me on Twitter: @GhostofBigRoy
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by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Feb 10, 2012 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
Shades of MEj - do we really need to go through this again?
"Statistics are for losers, I like winning games!" Will Muschamp
Absolutely with out a doubt
Understand it is tougher, but I definately think they should. How did we get Jeffcoat when his sister was at OU and dad at UH. Don’t know where Cobbs, Hicks and Ricky Williams parents went, but need to work on OOS kids to improve National Championship odds. Kiffin works in a large recruiting base, but looks national, as does Saban and others. Also point to Peat who went to Stanford despite a brother at Nebraska with a history of good OL.
The question i can’t answer, is what is the opportunity cost for the staff of pursuing? I think for special 4 or 5 stars, they should work a few every year from OOS, especially when they are showing interest.
by everything horns on Feb 10, 2012 2:00 PM CST up reply actions
You posted above that you agree with getting away from the lazy recruiting and easy offers
And now you don’t think it is worth it to go after one of the top players in the country?
I think you must have me confused with TowerPower
and as far as Edwards, I am still singed a little from disappointed after such high expectations – and don’t even ask about DGB! :-)
"Statistics are for losers, I like winning games!" Will Muschamp
I want us to keep chasing the best of the best the entire process
Sure you have plenty of MEj and DGB experiences, but it’s like hitting on hot chicks in a club…play the numbers and sometimes you’ll end up with Jeffcoat, Hicks and Torshiro Davis. Maybe even a VY!
umm you better clarify ending up with men after using a nightclub reference...
…JUST SAYIN!
Because being a Texas fan means never having to say you're sorry.
by dukeoforange on Feb 11, 2012 6:33 AM CST up reply actions
He who dares, wins
Being afraid of being told “no” is how we got those overrated, unproductive classed.
"If God dwells inside us like some people say, I sure hope He likes enchiladas, because that's what He's getting."
by RedmondLonghorn on Feb 10, 2012 3:17 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
Is RSJ projected for the defensive side of the ball?
by Nunna Yo Bizness on Feb 10, 2012 12:04 PM CST reply actions
Wide receiver or tight end, most likely.
Follow me on Twitter: @GhostofBigRoy
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by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Feb 10, 2012 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
On a different subject
I don’t know if it’s aol or the SBN server – WHY do I keep getting this error message when i try to open BON? Once I click the back button, it takes me to the web page, however.
The web address you entered could not be found
You were trying to go to http://www.burntorangenation.com/
"Statistics are for losers, I like winning games!" Will Muschamp
Network
has been having some issues over the last few days.
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by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Feb 10, 2012 1:19 PM CST up reply actions
fine with waiting
maybe i am naive. But i truly love UT Austin. I honestly think it is one of the great schools to go to. I love the campus. I love the surrounding area, i love the “feel of austin”.
I am mightily impressed with Mack Brown and his current coaching staff.
so that said, i am fine in any of these kids we recruit waiting to make a commitment. What, they are going to think college station is a beautiful place? They going to fall in love with the geography of Norman Ok or its academics over UT?. Waco is going to drive them crazy with passion and spirit?
Maybe Bama or LSU because of recent history. Maybe Ohio State because of Urban. But seriously as long as folks are playing fair (you paying attention Oregon???) I am not concerned about evaluating the kids longer, or about the kids waiting longer to commit.
Take all the trips they want before they commit, but then when they commit, do it for real.
We will end up with way more than our share.
I agree
When competing for a kid that is honestly open-minded about his decision, I like Texas’ chances better than any school that isn’t USC. Had it not been for his father, MEJ could easily be a Horn right now. And I can’t imagine the pressure DGB felt when he chose to stay at home. Can’t really find blame in either of them.
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