Texas Football 2012: Big 12 Schedule Analysis
by Wescott Eberts (GoBR) on Feb 16, 2012 12:12 PM CST
in Texas Longhorns Football
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PrintSo, after waiting for the Big 12 to resolve West Virginia's exit from the Big East to get the Mountaineers into the league this season, the long-awaited release of the conference schedule finally went down Tuesday morning.
Here's a look at how things will go down for the Longhorns in the 2012 conference season:
- at Oklahoma State, September 29th
- West Virginia, October 6th
- vs. Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl), October 13th
- Baylor, October 20th
- at Kansas, October 27th
- at Texas Tech, November 3rd
- Iowa State, November 10th
- TCU, November 24th
- at Kansas State, December 1st
First of all, the home schedule isn't as bad as it would have been if Texas had been forced to pick up another non-conference game instead of West Virginia, but the match-up against the Mountaineers and the tilt against the other new member are probably the best games on the home slate. The other contests at DKR are Wyoming, New Mexico, Iowa State, TCU, and Baylor.
The issue now is that TCU could still be reeling from the effects of losing at least three defensive starters due to the drug arrests made on Wednesday, decreasing the quality of that contest, even late in the season. The third-best game is against Baylor, a team that faces major question marks on both sides of the ball after getting terrible safety play in 2011 and losing the best player in the history of the program, as well as their top receiver and running back. Lache Seastrunk enters the fold and there is still some talent at wide receiver, but it's still easy to predict a drop off there.
In other words, things could have been worse for the home schedule, but replacing Texas A&M with TCU doesn't look as appealing now as it did a matter of hours ago. That game is currently scheduled for the Saturday following Thanksgiving, but the current expectation is for the game to be moved back to Turkey Day as soon as ESPN and Fox work out a deal for the television rights.
The final game against Kansas State in Manhattan could be a huge game if the Longhorns are working to make a BCS bowl at that point -- the expectation for the season. Is this the year that Texas finally breaks the vice-like grip of EcoKat around our throat? Doing so could be the difference between a successful season and another mid-tier bowl game.
It could well be cold and windy, which may not favor either team, as both are expected to feature the run heavily, but it will be senior night for quarterback Collin Klein and, well, Kansas State owns Texas.
The season-defining stretch for Texas could well come early in the season, starting with the conference opener against Oklahoma State. Fortunately for the 'Horns, the Pokes could have a quarterback competition that lasts into the fall and will also have to replace all-world wide receiver Justin Blackmon. Expect T. Boone's boys to rely more heavily on the running game, which will feature a talented stable of backs including the proven and versatile Joseph Randle, bruising Jeremy Smith, and scat back Hershel Sims, the former Abilene star Texas passed over in favor of Malcolm Brown.
Following that contest, Texas will face a much stiffer challenge when hosting West Virginia, though entering the second year under Manny Diaz should eliminate the adjustment period that was needed in 2011 and result in the Longhorn defense being much more prepared for the high-powered offensive attack of the Mountaineers.
After hosting Holgo and company, Texas will make the trip up I-35 to the Cotton Bowl for the annual showdown there with Oklahoma, which will benefit from the return of Landry Jones and addition of Trey Metoyer, the former East Texas star who had to spend a year at a prep school after failing to qualify out of high school. The concerns for the Sooners revolve around the running game that struggled last year and some major losses on defense, including Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year Frank Alexander and star linebacker Travis Lewis.
If the Longhorns can make it through that stretch at 2-1, which is probably moderately hopeful, Texas should be in good position to compete for the Big 12 title and a BCS bid, depending on what happens with the Kansas State game to end the season.
So, BONizens, what are your predictions for Texas in conference play and can the Longhorns pull out a Big 12 title with this schedule?
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Home games
getting WVU and TCU at home this year is nice. i don’t think we’ll be talking about the drug scandal much this fall and TCU will still be a good team. about the only way it could shape up better for Texas is if we could swap KSU for ISU on the home docket.
"I swear -- by my life and my love for it -- that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for mine."
Agreed
If TCU struggles this year, it will be because of their harder schedule, not because of drugs. LSU had a similar problem last year and went 12-0. Definately shouldnt overlook them.
by texas7 alabama1 on Feb 16, 2012 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
LSU's problem last year
pales in comparison to TCU’s. From the limited information we have, there are darker days on the horizon for that football program.
Good writeup
First of all, this:
Replacing Texas A&M with TCU doesn’t look as appealing now as it did a matter of hours ago.
I’d rather play Texas School for the Deaf than the Aggies, next year or ever again. That bridge done burned. While we don’t know the true damage caused by the TCU drug scandal, and won’t for some time, it’s still a well-coached team that has a lot of good years ahead. Also, they have female cheerleaders.
Final game at K State could be the biggest of the year, outside of OU.
And don’t sleep on Texas Tech. I know we stomped ’em but that was in Austin, this is gonna be in Lubbock, and possibly at night.
Simplicity is always the secret, to a profound truth, to doing things, to writing, to painting. Life is profound in its simplicity. - Charles Bukowski
Windycity and chupita are 2 men who have their priorities straight
Does anyone have a photo you can post? (Not enough cheerleader pics on this blog, IMO)
"Only angry people win football games." --DKR
Still not worried about TTU
The ‘08 shocker was because our secondary was not nearly as loaded as our’s will this this season. Also, TTU is not as pass happy and pass efficient as they have been in the pass. I still look at this game as a win.
'08 shocker
That I am only just now able to talk about coherently because it’s been replaced in my repressed memory by another travesty that occured at night the subsequent year…
Anyways, apart from our secondary woes, I do seem to recall us running a delay draw out of our own end zone. Which, in retrospect, was probably not the best idea.
WVU slept dey couch.
by pleaseplaykindle on Feb 16, 2012 1:21 PM CST up reply actions
Season Breakdown
vs Wyoming
vs New Mexico
at Ole Miss
Bye
Must come out of this stretch 3-0 and healthy. But more importantly with some offensive confidence and momentum. First two should be powder puffs, which have their benefits, but Ole Miss on the road should be a great barometer for how this offense can work. If HarsinWhite can get the O going to adequate levels, we will have a shot in every game we play.
at Okie Lite
vs WVU
vs OU
Obviously the toughest stretch of the season. Think the newness and excitement of WVU coming in will lessen the potential “Trap Game” element before OU. This stretch will test the offensive progress we made in the easier opening games, as well as the defensive potential greatness that I for one expect next year.
vs Baylor
at Kansas
at Tech
vs Iowa State
Bye
Must come out of this stretch 4-0 and healthy after the bye week. Trap game vs Baylor at home after OU.
vs TCU (possibly on a Thursday)
at KSU
With extra time to prepare for these two games, we should have a real shot to go 2-0 here if our offense is productive.
"A lot of people look for the easy way to do anything, in swimming there is no easy way." - Eddie Reese
That might be a little optimistic
Ideally: 3-0, 2-1,4-0,1-1 =10-2, Fiesta Bowl
Realisticaly: 3-0,1-2,4-0,1-1=9-3, Cotton Bowl, which would still be more than acceptable.
by texas7 alabama1 on Feb 16, 2012 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
I think the realistic scenario is most likely. could potnetially see us coming out with W’s in the final two games if we are hitting on all cylinders. This seasons is really to position us for the 2013 run.
Optimistic
If you notice, I actually did not make any predictions. I said we need to go 3-0 to start, the next 3 will be really tough, we need to win the 4 middle games before the bye, and we have a shot to go 2-0 to end the season because of the extra pre/recovery time.
If I were to make a prediction, I would actually say 9-3 would be about right if Ash is adequate. 10-2 or 11-1 only if he is substantiallybetter than adequate.
"A lot of people look for the easy way to do anything, in swimming there is no easy way." - Eddie Reese
That's my O/U
Will be mildly happy at 9-3. Hope for the upside. Rests on good progress from Ash and avoidance of killer injuries.
by scott_tiger on Feb 16, 2012 6:12 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
KSU at the end...
That game scares me the most out of any this season. Cold, windy, possibly bad weather, and home crowd advantage against us.
Plus, the WIzard has all season to evaluate and gameplan against us.
Is it official?
Are the Mountaineers the new Aggies of the Big 12?
Poll: If not them, who?
WVU slept dey couch.
by pleaseplaykindle on Feb 16, 2012 12:50 PM CST reply actions
In terms of pure hatred for us........
it has to be TCU.
by texas7 alabama1 on Feb 16, 2012 12:53 PM CST up reply actions
We don’t hate you, we’re jealous of your recruiting prowess.
We hate Baylor.
http://www.frogsowar.com/
by HawkeyedFrog on Feb 16, 2012 7:26 PM CST up reply actions
That's a pretty easy one, actually
sand aggies
student, alum, or fan of Texas Tech University.
I love it when the longhorns (University of Texas) beats the crap out of those sand aggies in Lubbock.
courtesy Urban Dictionary
Simplicity is always the secret, to a profound truth, to doing things, to writing, to painting. Life is profound in its simplicity. - Charles Bukowski
by windycityhorn on Feb 16, 2012 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
There can be only one
I don’t see anybody even remotely as abnoxious as aggie. The (non-qualifying) students who dress up and wield sabers, the all-male ‘yell’ leaders, the inferiority complex, the jealous rages and delusions, the sheer lack of thought- all of these are traits specific to aggie. They are a true one of a kind and it comforts me knowing that these people will not be descending on Austin in motor vehicles every other year..
"One player was lost because he broke his nose. How do you go about getting a nose in condition for football?" -- Darrell K Royal, when asked if the abnormal number of Longhorn injuries that season resulted from poor physical conditioning
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Feb 16, 2012 1:21 PM CST up reply actions
Does anyone know if they are working on a new fight song...
since the existing one is almost totally based on their hatred of us?
"Only angry people win football games." --DKR
I genuinely like both teams.
Maybe that’s just me. I think I’ll learn to hate them in time.
ps the “WVU slept dey couch” line is money.
"Life is tough; it's tougher when you're stupid."
by TexasGangorDie on Feb 16, 2012 12:55 PM CST reply actions
The answer to the question is.......
it all hinges on the play of the QB next year.
D will be awesome.
It would be easy to predict that the running game will benefit from the newly added horsepower…….but 5 linemen, a TE or two and a fullback can’t body all 9 in the box if our QB cannot limit mistakes and at a minimum be a game manager
HOMER TIME
I dont see a game that I would say Texas should lose. Do we drop a game? Probably, but who scares you? WVU? Offense should be great, but lost 5 most productive defenders from a bad defense. This is OSU 2011, with less talent. A team that Texas played with last yr and if we see improvement should beat. OU is a tough game, but they need to develop a running game. Only 2 QBs in FBS threw more passes than Landry and they lost their 2 best defenders. OSU? really? They lost their 2 best players and have a new QB. Lost 3 OL starters. Getting them early is a blessing
Want to agree with you so bad,
but I predict losses to: OU and 2 of (WVU,KSU,TCU,OKST).
WVU slept dey couch.
by pleaseplaykindle on Feb 16, 2012 1:19 PM CST up reply actions
I think we beat OU
I have a feeling Landry won’t be so comfortable back there this year, our D will be better, and our O can run the ball more effectively now. If our OL molds into what we think it is going to, we will likely have a W in Dallas.
We can beat OU
We should have a very good pass rush and I think we’ll control their running game. It will be while before we have a better set of starting DE’s.
"One player was lost because he broke his nose. How do you go about getting a nose in condition for football?" -- Darrell K Royal, when asked if the abnormal number of Longhorn injuries that season resulted from poor physical conditioning
by SpiritOfTheFedora on Feb 16, 2012 1:43 PM CST up reply actions
Simplification
If the offense does not progress to my homer view, then two losses out of WVU, OKST and OU is realistic. I actually think OKST is a win with their QB losses(and WVU a loss), but an early road game creates the doubt.
Like most years, I still have trouble understanding how we can lose to KSU, but have to believe we progressed more than we lost personnel wise and still think we should beat KSU. When I look at their Nov depth chart, KSU has a lot of SRs on both lines. They lose 8 starters (3 on the OL and 2 on the DL) and 6 backups. For a running team, the OL losses will hurt KSU. Despite all the skill positions coming back, their WR did poorly against us and I think it is still advantage TX. While I know they restock with JUCOs, I think this is the year we beat them at home.
10-2
by everything horns on Feb 16, 2012 2:25 PM CST up reply actions
Oh my, codaxx
I am TOTALLY on your band wagon. I honestly believe when WVU enters Memorial/DKR stadium, they will be overwhelmed. When their QB gets a look at Jeffcoat face to face, he will be thinking no mas. You can’t pass the ball whilst lying on your ass. This same worldly logic applies to ou as well.
In my opinion we only have two games that should be close – ou and KState. And we will win both. I used to think TCU would be salty – no more.
Of course, all this sunshine is contingent upon Ash performing and not getting hurt. We will go to the natty against USC and we will lose this one.
"Statistics are for losers, I like winning games!" Will Muschamp
I want some of what
you’re drinking!
by BurntOrangeTexans on Feb 16, 2012 9:53 PM CST up reply actions
Well, why should'nt I believe this?
You tell me what team we will play that will overpower us? Name one team that is so significantly better that we will not have a chance to beat?
"Statistics are for losers, I like winning games!" Will Muschamp
In fact - poll the players and ask them what team they will lose to? :-)
"Statistics are for losers, I like winning games!" Will Muschamp
by Snide Aside on Feb 16, 2012 10:00 PM CST up reply actions
A MNC game without the SEC?!?! WWFS?!
What Would Finebaum Say?!!!
We're going to play like we're in a bad mood.
LOL
Finebaum is a pompous ass and his callers are double digit I.Q possum eaters.
"Statistics are for losers, I like winning games!" Will Muschamp
by Snide Aside on Feb 17, 2012 10:34 AM CST up reply actions
Is USC off probation?
"Only angry people win football games." --DKR
" I honestly believe when WVU enters Memorial/DKR stadium, they will be overwhelmed."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA….oooh, that’s a good one. Just like Oklahoma was going to beat us- Siesta Bowl: Check! Just like Clemson was going to beat us-Orange Bowl: Check. Will Texas beat WVU?-maybe. But be “overwhelmed”? Pah-leeze!
Let’s Gooooooo Mountaineeers!!!
"When he gained control of the ball, the ball was breaking the plane and he fell into the field of play."--referee Walt Coleman
Quit squakin' my little bitter black birds.
Little confused...
Seastrunk been moved to WR or still at RB?
"If crime was justified by need it would be the occupation of the masses."- Chief Gillespie
Ashawn Robinson Commits
To Texas!! Per Hookem.com
by Dont.Mess.With.Texas. on Feb 16, 2012 1:20 PM CST via mobile reply actions
This was my wish for this week!
This kid is another Raulerson in that he can play both sides of the ball. Has the ability to be an elite OT or a very good DT.
If he loses weight or gains minimal weight
I could see him at OG too. I still think he ends up at OT…just a feeling
Hopefully this will be the end
of the FWISD curse. Hopefully.
by texas7 alabama1 on Feb 16, 2012 1:34 PM CST up reply actions
Brutal Stretch but the worst game to me is KSU
Yes, OSU then WVU then OU is a nasty run. However, I think OU will be down a bit and OSU will be down period. Plus, WVU hasn’t faced a defense like ours either. We have a good shot at winning all 3.
KSU is the most threatening game to me. Last game of the season so Snyder will have all damn year to gameplan against us. That time of year is miserable in Kansas…bad weather, cold, and windy as hell. Plus, their home crowd isn’t exactly quiet. This is a trap game if I ever saw one.
i love the fear
they put up 120 yds last yr. They need to re-stock both lines. Stop being sissies. Its Feb, that is when hope springs eternal.
Agreed
As noted by my post above, the line losses will turn the tide to a TX win. Their passing was worse than ours and the running game can’t be better with losing 3 starters on the OL and one backup. The defense loses 8 srs counting backups. Advantage TX despite the cold hostile crowd.
by everything horns on Feb 16, 2012 2:29 PM CST up reply actions
how hostile can it be?
They beat us every yr. The love us. Maybe the only fan base in America that loves Texas
10-2 - BCS Bowl berth is ideal
Prior to yesterday, I was tabbing these games as losses: OU, @Tech, TCU.
I now truly believe that we’ll defeat TCU. They’re already guaranteed to lose three starters thanks to this scandal, but the story is just unfolding. It’s disappointing because I was really looking forward to our game against them, and watching them become one of the elite teams of the Big XII.
The Tech game is obviously winnable, but a game in Lubbock is always scary.
We’ll likely lose to OU regardless, but it’d be really nice to beat them. I don’t see it happening just yet unless Ash takes major strides and the offensive line gets it going. However, then we’d be aiming for a lot more than just a BCS berth.
The Tech loss can be swapped out for WVU or @KState. I think WVU will be a win following a dress rehearsal @OKST. I know KState has our number, but they barely managed to beat us last year despite a major blown call and Ash handing them points. Being on the road may make it a bit tougher though.
As many have said, it all depends on Ash. I was hoping for a Cotton Bowl (and I still might) before I started sipping the Burnt Orange kool-aid, but it’s starting to look like one of those seasons that can propel us into title contention in the following two years and more.
by BurntOrangeTexans on Feb 16, 2012 1:30 PM CST reply actions
Predicting 3 Losses, maybe 4
OU, WVU, Kstate
Maybes: TCU, @ Ole Miss
10-2 is very optimistic….I still think QB is a concern this year. David Ash will be lucky for 1-1 TD INT ratio
Predicting 4 or 5 losses
WVA, OU, KSU are losses to me. The only scenario we win vs WVA is if our defense can hold them to two TDs, which I just don’t see happening. They are a solid bunch that Xsan score in droves. until Landry Jones is gone, I don’t see Texas winning in Dallas. That game typically comes down to QB play, unless both QBs are ineffective against the other defense. In this case, Landry will still manage to be productive against us but it could be a close one. After that, KSU is loss. Mark that one down.
So where is the other two losses? Between OSU, TCU, Tech, or Ole Miss you have teams that are good enough to beat us if we bring anything less than our A game. After all, this is 2012, not 2005 or 2008/2009. I don’t think Texas is at the point where we are either immune to slip ups, or good enough to overcome turnovers, bad bounces, etc on a weekly basis.
Reluctantly agree,
but then I’m a born pessimist. As pointed out, earlier, it all depends on the QB play, and neither Ash nor McCoy have shown any consistency and Brewer will likely red-shirt.
"Only angry people win football games." --DKR
I'm sorry, but the fact that you think Ole Miss is good enough to POTENTIALLY beat us...
…means you don’t watch enough college football. That team is Godawful. It won’t even be close. And let’s see OSU’s running game do anything when they don’t have Old man Wheeden and Blackmon to make the LBs nervous.
Because we're Texas and we're evil. DUH.
by iamjackburton on Feb 17, 2012 10:30 AM CST up reply actions
almost anyone is good enough to beat us...
…if we throw 3 pics, cough up the ball, miss tackles etc. In other words, don’t bring our A game. Just look at UCLA, KSU, KU, ISU, A&M over the past two years. My point is simply that we do not have the QB play and the experience at QB, WR, LB, etc to overcome our own mistakes. Until Ash proves me otherwise, I expect him to be prone to several games with multiple interceptions and bad decisions — particularly in the early part of the season when we play Ole Miss and OSU.
Turkey Day
They just don’t get it. The reason we cared about Turkey Day was that Texas played A&M. Plugging in TCU is not going to replace that, so all we have is a scheduling conflict with the NFL. Give it up.
Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. If they get mad, you're a mile away AND you have their shoes.
I'm not a fan of TCU on turkey day either.
But I was not and am not a fan of aggy also.
Now, Notre Dame would be a FINE opponent for turkey day and a helluva lot better as a traditional rival.
"Statistics are for losers, I like winning games!" Will Muschamp
by Snide Aside on Feb 17, 2012 10:37 AM CST up reply actions
Tradition man!
First I want to eat. Then I want to watch my Cowboys. Then I get to watch my Horns. At this point, I don’t care who we play as long as I get to watch my Horns Thanksgiving night.
I agree with this, at least the Longhorns part.
by Texas Wahoo on Feb 17, 2012 11:19 AM CST up reply actions
LOL, right!
Texans OWN the Cowboys! :-)
"Statistics are for losers, I like winning games!" Will Muschamp
by Snide Aside on Feb 17, 2012 12:12 PM CST up reply actions
Prediction
I am really hoping for a 10-2 finish. Would I like a NC? Sure, but like everyone continues to point out, the QB uncertainty is going to kill us. I think 9-3 is a doable scenario. Definitely looking forward to the Spring game.
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