Assuming that we win against OU and lose at KU, in conference we will be 9-9 with an overall record of 20-12. A loss in the Big 12 tourney will give us 13 losses with however many wins we get before we exit. Currently we have a RPI of 55.
So here is my assessment of the season and the games we should have won and should have lost and how we actually did:
In conference UT lost all the games it played against the top calibre schools: KU, Baylor and Mo. We won at home against the middle-of-the-pack: K St., Iowa St and Ok St and lost to them on the road. And we beat all the third-tier teams: OU, Tech and the Ags. Since UT is a middle-of-the-pack team, this is how conference play should have sorted out. There are no unexpected wins or losses in conference play.
In addition, UT beat all the mid-majors on its schedule: Sam Houston, N Tx, Tx-Arlington, Tx St and Nicholls St, so no blemish there.
We also took care of business at home against not too impressive Boston and Rhode Island early in the season and Rice on the eve of conference play.
We went out to LA and beat UCLA which is not having its best year, but still it is an away win against a storied school and have an impressive win against Temple which leads the Atlantic-10, is ranked #22 in the AP and has a #14 RPI.
The only non-conference losses were against AP #7 UNC with a #4 RPI in Chapel Hill shortly before Christmas and to Oregon St and North Carolina St in the Legends Classic before Thanksgiving. The UNC loss was expected, especially in Chapel Hill and the other losses were away games against 'name' teams. The Wolfpack is having a very similar year to the Longhorns in that it has a 7-7 record in ACC conference play and is tied for 5th in the standings with an 18-11 overall record and a #73 RPI.
So the only troubling loss was to Oregon St. and that loss was in OT, was the first game of the Classic so the first time many of our freshman had been on a big stage and was very early in this season. I think this loss can be explained away, but I would like to have more than the Temple win to offset it.
So on-balance, in my opinion, UT took care of what it was expected to do this season and also beat a quality Temple team. I think this along with the school's name-recognition and recent basketball tradition of NCAA appearences should snare an invite to the dance unless there are some biases among the bracket creators who want to punish Texas for the Longhorn Network, etc. and for being the percieved cause of the most-recent conference reallignment and Div-1 chaos.