NCAA Tournament: Who is In & Out? More Work Left?

It's March, baby! (Photo by Chris Chambers/Getty Images)

Section Sunday is just six days away. On Sunday evening, the secret work of the Selection Committee will be made public and then applauded by some and ripped apart by others. Some teams will feel slighted with their omissions, others will be confused with their seed, and finally even more teams will wonder why they aren't playing closer to home.

Needless to say, getting to 68 teams isn't easy and there is no exact formula.

With plenty of ball left to be played and very little already decided, let's take a look at who is safely in and who has more to prove.

Tournament Host Cities:
NCAA First Round: Dayton
Second & Third Rounds: Pittsburgh, Greensboro, Louisville, Columbus, Nashville, Omaha, Albuquerque, Portland
Sweet 16 & Elite Eight: Boston, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Phoenix
Final Four: New Orleans

Safely In:

Big 10 (5): Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State
Big East (5): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame
ACC: (3): North Carolina, Duke, Florida State
SEC (3): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt
Mountain West (3): UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State, Creighton
Atlantic-10 (2): Temple, St. Louis
C-USA (1): Memphis
Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont
Big South (1): UNC Asheville
Ohio Valley (1): Murray State
Ivy (1): Harvard

Automatic Qualifiers:
Plus, winners of following conferences (16): America East, Big Sky, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Metro Atlantic, MAC, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, and WAC.

That is 51 of our 68 leaving just 17 other selections.

After the jump, the final 17 teams...

Probably In:
Probably In (8): Purdue, Alabama, Virginia, Southern Miss, California, Cincinnati, Connecticut, and West Virginia

That is 59 of 68 leaving 9 more slots

Last Teams In:
Last Teams In (9): Washington, Mississippi State, BYU, Texas, Colorado State, Northwestern, Xavier, South Florida, Miami.

Bubble Burst:
Out at this point: Seton Hall, Arizona, Oregon, VCU, NC State, Tennessee, Dayton, St. Joe's.

RPI and KemPomeroy

We know that the Committee likes to use RPI among their tools when evaluating teams. You should also know that this site prefers to use KenPom advanced metrics and rankings. So, here are those two rankings (through Saturday) for the teams in the above two categories.

Teams

Ken Pom

RPI

Total

Texas

26

55

81

Miami

39

50

89

Northwestern

51

42

93

BYU

47

49

96

Colorado St

76

20

96

Oregon

56

53

109

South Florida

67

44

111

VCU

49

65

114

Arizona

42

73

115

Xavier

61

54

115

St. Joe's

65

51

116

NC State

57

60

117

Seton Hall

62

59

121

Washington

64

57

121

Tennessee

54

76

130

Dayton

66

71

137

Miss State

75

64

139

Is Texas In or Out?

As mentioned in yesterday's post about who Texas fans should cheer for and against, it is not a simple as saying Texas is in or out or deserves to be in our out. While an individual team's resumes tells the committee a lot, those resumes/teams must also be compared against each other and then seeded accordingly.

Will the Texas Longhorns be among those selected? Honestly, I don't know right now. It's Monday. Texas has a shot to play their way into the NCAA tournament with a win or two or three in Kansas City. Texas also has a shot to play their way out of the NCAA tournament with a quarterfinal loss COMBINED with other bubble teams strengthening their cases?

If neither Oregon nor Arizona reach the Pac 12 finals, they are probably NIT bound. Seton Hall and South Florida flame out early in NY, they will have some very long waits till Sunday. Etc, etc.

So, as we each make prognostications about the Texas Longhorns, let's also remember the other bubble teams to which Texas is being compared and not just remember the ‘Horns' frustrating home losses to Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri.

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