FanPost

Can Rick Barnes Teach Offense? A Definitive Look at the Data.

I have assumed for many years that Rick is bad at teaching players how to be more efficient on offense. I now have some data to support that assumption.

I looked at yearly ESPN data for PPG, FG%, FT%, 3P FG%, Turnovers Per Game, Assists Per Game, and Minutes Played Per Game to get a fairly holistic picture of each player's performance. I looked at players who had 2 or more years in the program and averaged >10 min per game. The data set only goes back to 2001.

I gave players one of four labels (yes, no, sort of, worse) based on this question: Did the player improve his offensive efficiency over the course of his career. Here's what I found:

~ 25% Improve (Coach K is 40%)

~ 25% Marginally Improve (Coach K is 30%)

~ 50% Do Not Improve (Coach K is 30%)

12 Year Team Averages (since 2001): Barnes vs Coach K

FG% - 45 vs 46

FT% - 69 vs 72

3P% - 36 vs 38

Here's the list if you want to judge for yourself.

T.J. Ford yes
Brian Boddicker yes
Jason Klotz yes
Kenton Paulino yes
Damion James yes
Dexter Pittman yes
Jordan Hamilton yes
Clint Chapman yes
J'Covan Brown yes
Kenny Taylor sort of
P.J. Tucker sort of
Connor Atchley sort of
Varez Ward sort of
Dogus Balbay sort of
Gary Johnson sort of
Matt Hill sort of
Alexis Wangmene sort of
Jonathan Holmes sort of
Julien Lewis sort of
Deginald Erskin no
Brandon Mouton no
James Thomas no
Royal Ivey no
Sydmill Harris no
Brad Buckman no
Daniel Gibson no
LaMarcus Aldridge no
Mike Williams no
D.J. Augustin no
A.J. Abrams no
Jai Lucas no
Jaylen Bond no
Sheldon McClellan no
Justin Mason got worse

I am working on the comparative analysis of Coach K to get a benchmark and then I'll post the dataset. EDIT: Done. Here it is:

Dahntay Jones yes
DeMarcus Nelson yes
Gerald Henderson yes
J.J. Redick yes
Jon Scheyer yes
Josh Hairston yes
Mason Plumlee yes
Quinn Cook yes
Sean Dockery yes
Seth Curry yes
Shelden Williams yes
Brian Zoubek sort of
Greg Paulus sort of
Kyle Singler sort of
Lance Thomas sort of
Miles Plumlee sort of
Nolan Smith sort of
Ryan Kelly sort of
Andre Dawkins sort of
Casey Sanders no
Chris Duhon no
Daniel Ewing no
David McClure no
Josh McRoberts no
Lee Melchionni no
Shavlik Randolph no
Tyler Thornton no

Here is the dataset.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap-XpGIZuNd5dGtqaFJXS0RIWE5GM3BJT0VlOXloU2c&usp=sharing

Other Notes:

Many players to seem max out their efficiency their junior year. There was somewhat of a senior curse observed in the data set. Especially for Duke.

Duke is a slightly better shooting team over the past 12 years. I also assume they shoot more 3s which adds up quickly. I think shooting efficiency and shot selection is the reason TX has been good under Rick but not elite.

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