FanPost

Prelude and Prediction for the Okie Light Game

Prelude:

After the by week, much has been said about what will happen on defense for the Texas Longhorns. Charlie Strong has maintained Vance Bedford as DC but has also promised to have a more focused role in helping plan the defense. Since the 50 - 43 loss to Cal two weeks ago, a game where Texas gave up an unacceptable 507 yards, nearly 400 of which were through the air, and a whopping 50 points, Strong and the Longhorns have vowed to fix their problems on defense.

This week, the test is just as big. Cal, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State all have similar losing records which means it's up to the Longhorns to decide which Texas team will show up in Stillwater on Saturday morning. Will we see the team that dug in and hung on for the win against a now tepid Irish team for the season opener in Austin, or will we see a Texas team that blew coverage after coverage on the road in California and allowed Davis Web to go nuclear all over our secondary?

There are a few bright spots to share. Shane Buechele and Tyrone Swoops are combining the veer and shoot with the 18 Wheeler package quite effectively. The impressive power running game led by D'Onta Foreman and Chris Warren III are also making it difficult for opposing defenses to know where to begin. Fill the box and Shane drops a dime sixty yards out. Spread out the coverage and Swoops and his stable of running backs will trample all over you. If our defense gives the O just enough to outscore you, we can and will. Just ask Notre Dame.

Another improvement that I'm seeing is our run defense. I know, I've been skeptical of our run defense before but I'm starting to accept it as an improvement. While each opponent this season has had an explosive running play against the Longhorns, the number of big plays has diminished it seems. Is it a great run defense? Not yet. But do we see improvement? I think so.

Last season the Golden Bears amassed more rushing yards than passing and did so by hitting the 280 mark. This season vs Cal, Texas was able to hold the Bears to just 111 yards on the ground. The big test will come when we face a more mobile quarterback however, something that plagued the Longhorns in each of our blowout losses last season. So far, the only mobile QB Texas has faces is DeShone Kizer at Notre Dame. But we did managed his feet effectively.

This week in Stillwater, I'm not expecting a mobile Mason Rudolph either. He's run for less than 30 yards over four games. But that may not matter. After all, Mike Gundy is a former OSU quarterback who loves to throw the ball. The good news is that Oklahoma State has been up and down this season. Including Rudolph. In game #2 against Pitt this year, Rudolph threw for a massive 540 yards. Something that would decimate the Horns given our current secondary woes. However, in other games, Mason has thrown for as few as 286 in a loss to Central Michigan. The OSU run game has been equally up and down.

Prediction:

I'm really six in one half dozen in the other on this game. Mason Rudolph has the tools and OSU has the red headed stepchild desire to come out swinging against a Texas team that historically seems to find a way to win this game almost every time. This game will come down to whether or not Strong and Co. were able to implement the needed tweaks on defense over the by week. Rudolph shows he can be beat. If Texas figures out how to pressure Mason, and force a few turnovers, Texas can win.

The problem is, our turnover margin is inept right now. And while we're up at the top in the Big 12 in sacks thus far, we're not getting into the backfield and pressuring big time quarter backs like we need to to in order to force those turnovers. And it's largely due to our weak secondary. It's just too darn hard to mount an effective pass rush when extra defenders have to account for the pass. Even stud linebacker, Malik Jefferson, looks as though he's in a sophomore slump because of it.

Bottom line, the secondary is going to have to give Mason Rudolph just enough pause that our pass rush, which I think is quite good, has time to pressure the quarterback. That is what will keep OSU from outscoring Texas. For me, I'm still not sold. I think OSU has home field advantage and the problems on defense for the Texas Longhorns don't appear to be improving under Vance Bedford, as our players mature over last year. I think Mason Rudolph has a big game and OSU wins by 3.

38-35 Okie Light

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