Pick Six

by Peter Bean on Nov 2, 2006 8:18 AM CST in Texas Longhorns Football

It?s time for another week of Pick Six. This week?s guest handicapper, as always, is the BON ESPN Pick ?Em winner from last week. Congratulations are in order for Mike Hubbel for some terrific picks last week, including Oklahoma State over Nebraska. Mike's also the author of Black Shoe Diaries, an oustanding Penn State blog. Do us, and him, a favor and check out his work before reading on.

Remember, weekly ESPN Pick ?Em winners receive a free t-shirt, plus a slot as out guest handicapper on the Pick Six. If you?ve NOT yet signed up to play, you can join the BON League and join the 100+ folks out there already participating:

1) Go to the ESPN Fantasy Home Page

2) Join the public group Burnt Orange Nation

3) Enter the password: Longhorns (Make sure you capitalize the 'L')

4) Make your picks

As always, our updated weekly standings for the Pick Six are below. We pretty much got licked last week. Fortunately, these aren't the games I wager real money on. Just the games of most interest.

Week Six Pick Six Results

Handicapper	Week 6 Straight Up	Week 6 Against Spread	Season Straight Up	Season Against Spread

PB	2-4	1-5	23-13	22-18-2
AW	2-4	2-4	22-14	18-22-2
AR	2-4	3-3	14-10	12-11-1

West Virginia +1.5 at Louisville

PB: My brother arrives in Las Vegas just in time to settle in to watch this one. He asked me who to take in this game and I just didn't know what to say. The biggest problem is that neither team has been truly tested. Louisville's been slightly more tested than West Virginia. The Mountaineers are statistically a little bit better than Louisville, though against slightly worse competition. Both coaches are solid, and both should be ready for this game. To be honest, I have no idea. West Virginia 28-27.

AW: Louisville hasn?t returned to the highest level of play since Brohm returned. West Virginia?s rushing attack hasn?t been stopped this season and won?t be slowed tonight. Can Louisville put up enough points to stay in it? Mountaineers 35-28.

AR: I, along with many others, have written several times that West Virginia will crumble when they face a defense that can stack up and stop their run because Pat White can not win a game with his arm. The time has come Louisville 42 ? West Virginia 30

Black Shoe Diaries: It?s been a fun ride for the Cardinals, but unfortunately it ends tonight. Pat White and the Mountaineer offense is just too good. West Virginia gets points? Bonus. WV 35 - Lou 27

Boston College -4 at Wake Forest

PB: I think this is the game that knocks Wake Forest out of most folks top twenty-five ballots for good. The Eagles aren't a dominant team, but they're a balanced one. Wake's always a tough out at home, but I think they're about to run out of steam. Boston College wins 27-10.

AW: Both teams plays solid defense. Wake Forest still hasn?t beaten a real opponent but have a legitimate chance at home and on national tv. The Demon Deacons aren?t quite ready for prime time yet. BC marches toward a division title. BC 20-14

AR: Wake Forest is much improved; I?ll grant that, but there?s no way they beat BC, who can score six TDs in gale-force winds and pouring rain, believe me it was not a good day to be outside in Boston. Anyway BC takes care of business on their way to an ACC Atlantic division title. BC 45 ? Wake Forest 24

Black Shoe Diaries: At initial glance Wake?s 7-1 record looks pretty impressive. But then you realize that includes a one point win over Duke and the combined record of the teams they have beaten is 15-43. BC brings them back down to Earth this week. And with FSU, VT, and Maryland still to play things aren?t going to get any easier. BC 27 - WF 13

Oklahoma -3 at Texas A&M

PB: Oklahoma's defense is at its peak, which means the Aggies will have to protect the football Saturday. If they can avoid a turnover nightmare, though, I think they can win this one in College Station. Can you believe College Gameday's going to be in College Station for this one? It'll be a night game, so get your remote handy for Texas-Oklahoma State and Texas A&M-Oklahoma. Aggies survive OU, 21-17.

AW: Shockingly, OU is playing at a very high level. Their defense has stepped up and frustrated Chase Daniel all game long. Paul Thompson has some steady improvement as well. A&M is not back and begins their slide on Saturday night. I?m taking Stoops over Franchione. Sooners 24-13.

AR: Last week Oklahoma proved that its offensive line is much improved since the beginning of the year and that they?re still a force to be reckoned with in the Big XII South, but are they the second best team post-Peterson. I will tentatively say no A&M 27 ? OU 24

Black Shoe Diaries: Oklahoma?s point production has dropped off some since losing Peterson, but the defense has picked up the slack holding their last three opponents to 10 points or less. I like the Sooners to win, but I?ll take the points. OK 21 - A&M 20

LSU -2.5 at Tennessee

PB: Yuck. Another game I won't touch with real money. One of the reasons our Pick Six is so difficult is that we don't just pick games that we want to put money on. We pick the among the most interesting and competitive matchups. But here we are, and the gun's at my temple, so I'll see if I can take a stab at this. I think this is the game where LSU gets it together on offense to not squander a good performance on defense. Huge, huge, huge game for a lot of reasons, and one I'll be watching. LSU 24-16.

AW: Something smells here. Why is a top 10 one-loss team a dog at home to a two-loss team? Defense seems to win in the SEC. I?ll go with the Tigers? pass defense over the much improved Tennessee passing attack. Les Miles gets revenge for last year?s enormous choke job. Tigers 14-10.

AR: LSU is favored coming into Neyland? I?m sold. Les Miles proves our best friend in this one. He?s gotta win one big one. Tigers 20 ? Tennessee 17

Black Shoe Diaries: LSU is probably the best 6-2 team in the country. Both of their losses came on the road against highly ranked opponents. This week they play another ranked opponent on the road. Nobody has scored more than 23 points on the Tigers and seven of their opponents have scored 10 points or less. Tennessee can give up some points. I like the Tigers here. LSU 24 - The Other UT 14

Missouri +6 at Nebraska

PB: Man did this game go from "Interesting" to "Meh" in a hurry. The winner gets the inside track to Kansas City, so there's reason for Horns fans to watch. I guess I'd like to see one of these two teams take a step forward in this game. Given each team's struggles, I'll take the points. Huskers 23-21.

AW: The battle for fourth place in the Big 12. This one looked really intriguing about two weeks ago. Chase Daniel had a bad outing last weekend. I expect a big bounce back performance against the Cornhusker secondary. Missouri?s defense couldn?t stop OU on the ground last weekend. There is no reason to believe they play any better this weekend. I?ll take points though. Big Red 26-23.

AR: Before last week I would have taken Missouri, but losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, respectively, have muddled this picture severely. I think Missouri got too much credit in my mind for their win over Texas Tech, which I am now ready to blame on TBS, but Missouri?s offense is very similar to OSU?s, and I could go back and forth forever, so I?ll hedge Nebraska 31 ? Missouri 30

Black Shoe Diaries: I have not been a Nebraska believer all year which is why I picked them to lose to Oklahoma State. They have blown out some weak competition, but give them an opponent with a pulse and they look very average. Missouri beat Texas Tech and played A&M pretty tough. Bump-bump. Bump-bump. Mizoo 30 - Nebraska 27

Oklahoma State +17 at Texas

PB: I'm taking the points. The Horns aren't playing good enough pass defense to blow out the Pokes right now. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm expecting a reasonably competitive game. Texas 38-27.

AW: Our secondary is really banged up and Bobby Reid is playing with as much confidence as any quarterback in the league. Unfortunately, their defense won?t be up to the task. Jamaal finally has a break out performance and Reid gets 300 yards in the loss. No cover for the Horns 40-24.

AR: We cannot have another close game. My young heart, already weakened substantially by my fondness for onion rings, will give out. With that in mind, I will make a prediction from those depths where wishful thinking belongs. Texas 70 ? Oklahoma State 3. Do it for my heart Horns.

Black Shoe Diaries: I love the Cowboy offense. They are well balanced and tagged A&M and Nebraska for 33 and 41 points respectively. Unfortunately their defense relies on the opposing offense to make mistakes. Texas won?t do that. I think Texas is going to win handily, but they?re going to have to score 50 to cover the spread. OSU 33 - The Real UT 45

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Comments

OU's status

I have been thinking about this for a couple of days and I figure that this is as good of a place to put it as any.
I think we are underestimating OU and Stoops. I know that he lost AP and Bomar this year, but after the Missouri game I realized that this is the OU team that gets consistantly great recruits and Stoops is not a bad coach.
OU has the tallent to reload in every position, so just becuase they lost AP does not mean they are going to become cellar dwellers. I think they will probably win out.
And don't discount them next year, Their running backs are getting playing experience and their D will be strong. I still think we will be favored going into Dallas next year, but OU will be up their in the rankings.

by Wells on Nov 2, 2006 8:43 AM CST reply actions

You're definitely right Wells

But you can't expect Oklahoma to immediately play just as well without Adrian Peterson. There has to be some kind of drop off. I think that's why some of us picked A&M.

by aorist9 on Nov 2, 2006 9:56 AM CST up reply actions

I was think less of this year

and more of next year with PB's doom and gloom schedule, I he is underestimating OU's potential next year.

But as for the A&M game, it will be closer with the loss of AP, but the Sooners just whooped on Missouri who the Aggies barely beat.

by Wells on Nov 2, 2006 10:03 AM CST up reply actions

I dunno

I guess I look at OU with no quarterback, losing their two best defensive players, and so forth, and see some problems. They're always going to be solid - don't get me wrong - but they aren't looking like a 10-2 team anymore. Know what I mean?

by Peter Bean on Nov 2, 2006 10:06 AM CST up reply actions

Looking at their schedule next year

I think they will be favored in all of their games but Texas.
I see your point, and before last week I would have agreed with you, but I think Stoops will be ready to play.
Look at what he is doing this year with a prover loser QB and losing most of his offense.

by Wells on Nov 2, 2006 10:42 AM CST up reply actions

A lot of WV love

I am surprised to see three of the four picks leaning to West Virginia. It seems to me that Louisville is the more balanced team. In the one game that West Virginia "struggled", East Carolina forced Pat White to throw the ball. I would expect to see more of the same tonight against the excellent rushing defense of Louisville. WVU is very one dimensional and the win last year was in large part due to Pat White, who was still splitting time at QB until this game. Louisville was caught off guard. Even if we consider that these teams are evenly matched, Louisville playing at Papa Johns Stadium in a revenge game sounds like trouble for West Virginia. Should be a fun game...

by SuperHorn on Nov 2, 2006 9:13 AM CST reply actions

I'm with you dude

I'm all over that. I guess we'll find out tonight though.

by aorist9 on Nov 2, 2006 9:54 AM CST up reply actions

Texas Secondary

'After a first half which has seen the Texas secondary riddled with injuries, senior cornerback Aaron Ross has become familiar with assorted ailments.

When asked if Texas would be able to field a secondary against Oklahoma State on Saturday, Ross paused and gave his take.

"Everyone is talking about us being dinged up, but we're fine," Ross said. "(Tarell Brown's) big toe is doing better, my wrist is fine, and the Griffin twins' ankles are better."

For those who saw Ross limp off the field in the fourth quarter Saturday, he said he ran into the back of a teammate and temporarily had the wind knocked out of him.'

http://www.statesman.com/sports/content/sports/stories/longhorns/11/02/2texnotes.html

I think we blow the coverage on a couple of long TD passes, maybe some trick plays, but OSU won't be able to run on our D, nor will they be able to cover Limas or the Galloping Ghost. I think Colt sets the single-season passing TD record on Saturday, and JC and SY finally get that double-100 day.

UT 52 OSU 38

by patienthornsfan on Nov 2, 2006 10:31 AM CST reply actions

Re:

"JC and SY finally get that double-100 day."

How many games has someone predicted this for this year? All of them? I wanna see it too, but...eh.

by aorist9 on Nov 2, 2006 10:42 AM CST up reply actions

JC and SY

If we want to get them both 100 yards, we have to give them the ball. It's hard to gain 100 yards on 10-15 carries when you're not busting out the long runs.

It's great that they're in the 5-6 ypc range, but they are not getting those game breaking runs. I'm seeing a lot of 5-10 yard gains mixed in with the occasional negative play, which can put us in some obvious passing situations.

by AMB on Nov 2, 2006 10:50 AM CST up reply actions

Nebraska Rushing

vs. OSU

NET YARDS RUSHING............. 211
Rushing Attempts............ 40
Average Per Rush............ 5.3
Yards Gained Rushing........ 260
Yards Lost Rushing.......... 49

vs. Texas

NET YARDS RUSHING............. 38
Rushing Attempts............ 24
Average Per Rush............ 1.6
Yards Gained Rushing........ 71
Yards Lost Rushing.......... 33

That's all I'm sayin'.

by patienthornsfan on Nov 2, 2006 11:30 AM CST up reply actions

May say more about our dominating D line...

But I'll hope.

by aorist9 on Nov 2, 2006 1:22 PM CST up reply actions

Not just

our d line but our whole defense. The safeties have come up to make some great tackles and and same with the corners. Also the linebackers have made play after play.

Da' Horns

by number1hornsfan on Nov 2, 2006 8:35 PM CST reply actions

And

another good stat for us is.... i did not know this but our defense has totaled thirty sacks. I thought it was somewher between 17-22.

Da' Horns

by number1hornsfan on Nov 2, 2006 8:37 PM CST reply actions

Hatfields vs. McCoys

As a Buckeye fan, assuming we win on Nov. 18...I'm ecstatic at the prospect of most likely facing Louisville.

Re: Pat White - Warrior.

Re: Steve Slaton - Pussy.

by matsut on Nov 2, 2006 10:15 PM CST reply actions

Do you really want...

to win the Championship against Louisville? I'm terrified already at the prospect of playing Boise St. as a bland, opening act for the city of Phoenix. I'd rather play Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl.

by BrooklynHorn on Nov 2, 2006 11:34 PM CST up reply actions