BlogPoll Confusion: Texas and Michigan

by Peter Bean on Oct 23, 2007 4:56 PM CDT in Football Comment 16 comments

In putting together this week's Top 25 Draft Ballot for the BlogPoll, I concluded that Texas' and Michigan's resumes had finally inched their way to being among the Top 25 in the country. Now, I suppose I could see a voter making the case that neither resume is strong enough to merit inclusion among the Top 25, but it's very difficult for me to look at the two resumes side by side and conclude anything other than that the two ought to be ranked very near one another. Michigan has a solid edge in quality wins, but a distinct disadvantage in the bad loss category.

Take a look at the two resumes, grouped loosely by tiers of wins and losses. You can quibble with how the tiering should work, but I think it's a reasonably fair comparison model. Texas gets solid win points for beating a decent TCU team by three touchdowns in Austin. Michigan gets solid win points for beating Penn State in Ann Arbor, winning at Champaign, and easily handling Purdue. The filler category is intended to indicate wins which neither help nor hurt the resume. Just wins. And of course there is a loss component. Texas is dinged for a bad loss to Kansas State in Austin and penalized less harshly for a close loss to Oklahoma in Dallas. Michigan is dinged twice for bad losses to Appy State and Oregon in Ann Arbor.

Add it all up, and it's difficult to say that one resume is distinctly better than the other. Right?

Apparently not. Among the Week 10 submitted BlogPoll ballots as of Tuesday at 5:45, there are 10 voters who see a significant difference between the two teams. Though the majority of voters have Texas and Michigan ranked within five or six spots of one another (fair enough), a handful of voters see something that I'm having trouble comprehending.

Brian does a little bit of this when he announces the BlogPoll tabulations each week - ballots which deviate grossly from the poll at large are pointed out, with questions asked. One of the distinguishing features of the BlogPoll which gives it the potential to be something special is that dialogue among voters is encouraged. There's nothing inherently wrong with having an opinion which diverges from the opinion of the majority, but voters are encouraged to explain themselves in such cases.

With that in mind - where a voter ranks Texas (or Michigan) this season isn't particularly important to me, but understanding the rationale behind voting patterns always is. So, to the following bloggers, I ask you:

Why the separation between Texas and Michigan?

How does the separation fit with your broader theory of ranking teams?

Reasonable minds can disagree on this stuff, so I don't consider this a call to arms or anything. But a justification may be in order. I'll welcome any responses - from commenters and bloggers alike.

SEEING SOMETHING MORE IN TEXAS

Conquest Chronicles --- (Texas #14 / Michigan NR)

Frank McGrath --- (Texas #15 / Michigan #23)

Saurian Sagacity --- (Texas #14 / Michigan #23)

SEEING SOMETHING MORE IN MICHIGAN

82 Sluggo Win --- (Michigan #17 / Texas NR)

Boi From Troy --- (Michigan #12 / Texas #22)

DawgSports --- (Michigan #17 / Texas NR)

Football Outsiders --- (Michigan #16 / Texas #23)

Pitch Right --- (Michigan #15 / Texas NR)

Rocky Top Talk --- (Michigan #15 / Texas NR)

Sports Frog --- (Michigan #17 / Texas NR)

--PB--

0 recs | Comment 16 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Read More: michigan, texas, rankings, blogpoll

Comments

Perceived Big 12 Weakness

Maybe some of the reason for the folks who have Michigan Higher than Texas is due to the perceived weakness of the Big 12, even though teams like Kansas and Missouri are doing well in addition to the usual suspects like OU. Nebraska's downturn doesn't help, and it won't help us next week, either.

Obviously, there's a lot of reality associated with the Perception of the Big 12, but for this season in particular, I honestly couldn't tell you where I think the Big 12 stands vs. other Conferences at this point.

by LeftHandedTexan on Oct 23, 2007 5:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps another year, but...

Is the perception of the Big 10 strong this year? My impression is that it is not.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Oct 23, 2007 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd agree

But there may be some historical carryover from last year, since Ohio State was in the MNC game, and OU lost to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl...

by LeftHandedTexan on Oct 23, 2007 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My impression

Was that Ohio State getting thumped by Florida and Michigan getting thumped by USC sort of stained whatever shine was glowing on the Big 10 last year.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Oct 23, 2007 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My Mistake...

Michigan should be ranked, I did the poll three times and left them out accidentally. though I would agree with your point that the Big 10 is vastly overrated.

quite simply Texas even with their loss to K State has been fun to watch. the ou loss while disappointing was a great game where Texas played far better than UM's showing against the Ducks.

Conquest Chronicles

by Paragon SC on Oct 23, 2007 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Recent memory? Michigan just beat a ranked conference team on the road. We (kind of) struggled against a mediocre conference team. Our best (only good) win against a ranked team happened a looong time ago.

By the by, it's Champaign, Illinois. Champagne is what you're holding until Texas finishes the season.

My adopted kid is pure genius at the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model.

by jc25 on Oct 23, 2007 5:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Fingers moving faster than brain.

--PB--

by Peter Bean on Oct 23, 2007 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unrelated

PB, I'm just curious, what is the situation up in South Bend? Are the ND fans ready to boot Weis out the door, or have they accepted that this season is a time for rebuilding? It seems like they have hit quite a low point.

I adopted Colt McCoy - but I can't take credit for throwin' genuine Texas dirt under the bed when he was born.

by SelimSivad on Oct 23, 2007 5:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting comparison

I never thought of this comparison.

And if you think back, what if these two teams had played each other in Week 1 when both teams were REALLY struggling and looking for an identity. App St beat Michigan and people on this site dogged Michigan. Then Texas played ARk St later that night.

With that said, what if Texas won a nailbiter over Michigan in Week 1 or vice versa? Then both schools would say what a great game it was. Instead, we've seen two programs have similarly awkward seasons with similar disappointments. Only thing, Michigan still controls its destiny in the Big Ten picture.

"Excuse me while I whip this out."

by FreedomDip on Oct 23, 2007 6:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Fixed, perhaps. Maybe.

Chalk mine up to inadvertence. Thanks for pointing it out.

The question for me was finding a home for the couplet, and I ended up with them about in the middle. Chaos abounds.

by Joel on Oct 23, 2007 7:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Enjoyed your site.

The fix looked good to me.

I also read this in diary you front paged from Meyton Panning re: the heat on Fulmer, and bloggers here will feel a little chill of recognition from reading this in terms of VY and the 2005 season.

Why? Because somewhere along the line, we, as in Tennessee fans, lost our humility. How did we get there? Two things really. We were spoiled by the tremendous career of Peyton Manning. We were spoiled by a magical season in 1998...The kind where two questionable pass interference calls and one inexplicable Clint Stoerner fumble literally saved our dream season. These two things, in my opinion, have caused fan expectations of the Volunteers to unrealistically go through the roof every year. Folks, we will never see another Peyton Manning. Fans, seasons like 1998 are magical BECAUSE they are so rare. How in the world did we lose sight of that?

Sometimes we can lose sight here and feel the frustration. Fortunately, there also seems a clear emotional community understanding that 2005 and VY was then and now is now. We still feel very lucky to have witnessed such an event in which we have such a high emotional investment. Our quest for magic was killed by Kansas State last year and again this year. We were, as fans, wounded nearly as deeply as the team. If it didn't take the first time, it damn sure did the second time.

But this post makes me aware that this will come forth ever so often. Like you, we want the magic so much we can taste it.

by whills on Oct 23, 2007 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Michigan vs Texas

Season ticket holder for Michigan here who came down to Austin for the Texas/K-State game.
This is a very good comparison, as I think there is a lot of similarity between the two teams. My impression of the K-state game was that it was similar to the Oregon game for Michigan: next to nothing went right. Defense was run over, special teams were horrible. Both teams run rather simplified offenses that lead to a lot of frustration on the part of fans. One thing that might lead me to rank Michigan higher is that I think that they have shown a substantial improvement in the last few weeks. I'm not sure that Texas has played anybody that they could demonstrate any improvement against. I also think Limas Sweed's injury is crucial. They are a much better team when he's healthy.
Bottom line, both teams should be in the 15-25 range, and i can't see ranking them more than 3 or 4 spots apart.

by Credit812 on Oct 23, 2007 10:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It's pretty simple

The most likely answer is that Texas has lost more recently, that's all. Just like the other polls, to the voters a loss looks less catastrophic when there are more wins since it happened. Even if it's a really catastrophic loss.

by dev on Oct 24, 2007 11:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

BCS computer rankings

i was looking at the BCS rankings and noticed Texas was ranked 16th in the voting polls but 19th in the BCS...the reason is that it is not ranked at all in any computer polls...

interesingly there are at least 29 teams with better computer rankings than Texas for each computer service...in fact even the 18th ranked computer team is not ranked in the BCS top 25 which means that it probalby was not ranked in either the Harris or USA Today top 25...

i am not sure what all this means other than Texas has played a poor schedule in the computer minds...

it is also interesting to see that USC, Hawaii, Cal, Alabama and Penn St are all almost as poorly ranked by the computer as Texas...see the link... http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/BCSSta...

by fandidnot attend on Oct 24, 2007 11:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Its Fairly Simple

Michigan lost early. Since then they have won, and have beaten some fair-to-good Big10 teams. Beating your conference foes plays well. They are tied for the lead in their conference.

Texas, on the other hand, played poorly against some weak teams, then lost two conference games. We have been bringing up the bottom of the Big12 this year and just recently moved ahead of Baylor in the standings.

If we had lost to ArkSt and TCU, then gone on a 6-game win streak, we would be ranked higher. Of course, that means beating KState and OU, which would be MUCH better than beating ArkSt and UCF.

Historically speaking, Texas NEVER gets any love unless we are undefeated. Michigan, on the other hand, has legions of fans all over the east and midwest, which dominates the media. A 6-2 Michigan gets much more slack than a 6-2 Texas. That is even more so when justified, as it is this year.

All this talk of BCS bowls is utter fantasy. If we get to 10-2 there will be plenty of time for all that baloney. As it is we will be fortunate to go to the Cotton/Alamo/Holiday bowl. We need to win out for anything good to happen.

by Arby A on Oct 25, 2007 5:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Very good point, Arby

I have no idea why all this BCS talk got started, but I cannot imagine a single way that we sneak in to an at-large bid. One of our losses was at home to an average team and the other to a good team. NONE of our wins come against quality opponents, and NU isn't going to change that. I'm actually concerned about OSU and a&m. I have no doubt that we can win, but I have little faith that we will win. I'm just not there yet. I haven't seen anything from the coaches that gives me supreme confidence in their decision making this year and the same goes with the players. Hopefully they will prove me wrong, but I'll wait until I see a major change before I have complete confidence that we will win out.

by GoHorns on Oct 25, 2007 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs