A hectic day has kept me away from the computer, but as promised, it's time for a prediction. But first, a few potential lessons learned from last week, the digestion of which by one team more than the other could be decisive Saturday night:

• Missouri Lesson #1:  One-dimensional attack against Oklahoma State was a mistake. Commitment to the running game is essential to protect Daniels.
• Missouri Lesson #2:  One-dimensional attack against Will Muschamp will not work for four quarters.
  
• Missouri Conclusion: Try like hell to run the football. Even if it looks grim.
  
  
• Texas Lesson #1:  Greg Davis was successful in playing to win when Texas was the big underdog to a heavily favorited Oklahoma team.
  
• Texas Lesson #2:  Greg Davis historically has been at his worst when he's played conservatively/not to lose.
• Texas Conclusion:  The big concern for Texas--certainly on offense--is hesitancy/tightness/playing to avoid mistakes.
  
  
• Missouri Lesson #1:  The Tigers' strength on defense lies with their extremely physical, talented defenders up the middle.
• Missouri Lesson #2:  Colt McCoy has a tendency to telegraph where the ball is going--be it Shipley or Cosby, who are often slashing into space in the middle of the field.
• Missouri Conclusion:  Be ready both to jump quick routes on the inside and/or lay some hits Texas' can't-lose receivers won't forget.
  
  
• Texas Lesson #1:  Missouri's strength on defense lies with their extremely physical, talented defenders up the middle.
• Texas Lesson #2:  Jordan Shipley has one of the best double moves in college football.
• Texas Conclusion:  Using Missouri's aggressiveness against them with Shipley and/or a trick play will lead to 6 deep.
  
  
• PB Will Worry If:  Texas misses 3-4 key tackles leading to 1-2 long scores for Missouri.
• PB Will Worry If:  Quan or Ship or McCoy takes a hit that knocks them out of the game for any extended period of time.
• PB Will Worry If:  Greg Davis loses the attacker mentality that led to the Oklahoma shreddage.
• PB Will Worry If:  Jeremy Maclin scores on special teams.
• PB Will Cue The Eyes of Texas If:  Texas' pressure disallows Chase Daniel to stay set and make quick throws.
• PB Will Cue The Eyes of Texas If:  Will Muschamp successfully prevents any long scores (20+ yards out).
• PB Will Cue The Eyes of Texas If:  Fozzy Whittaker is healthy enough to complement OG for 15-20 snaps.
• PB Will Cue The Eyes of Texas If:  Brandon Collins and James Kirkendoll take a step forward as guys Colt trusts and for whom the defense must account.
  
• PB Will Cue The Eyes of Texas If:  Will Muschamp has a lead in the second half.

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:  TEXAS 41  MISSOURI 33

Hook 'em, Horns!  Beat Mizzou!

A weekly report on the weekend of Big 12 football.

Previous weeks: 1, 2

THE RUNDOWN

BIG XII SOUTH

Idle: Texas Longhorns (2-0), Texas A&M Aggies (1-1)

• Oklahoma 55  Washington 14 [Box / Recap / Blog Coverage]
  
  Are there any Sam Bradford doubters left? Certainly for 2008, with this supporting cast, there shouldn't be. The sophomore completed 18 of his 21 passes Saturday for 304 yards and 5 more touchdowns, giving him 12 on the season, against just 2 interceptions. He's leading the nation in completion percentage (79.0), is second in passer rating (214.4), and hasn't been sacked yet this season. Not that the Sooners are one dimensional: Oklahoma's averaging 217 yards per game on the ground, as well. Add it all up and you get 7.0 yards per play on offense so far this year. Gaudy? Oh, yes, but we have to note that the Sooners haven't faced anything resembling a real defense yet. They will this week when TCU comes to Norman. The Horned Frogs are second nationally in total defense through three games--all wins (at New Mexico, versus Stephen F Austin, vs Stanford). Something's gotta give.
  
  
• Baylor 45  Washington St 17 [Box / Recap / Blog Coverage]
  
  PB's favorite non-Longhorn player Robert Griffin exploded Friday night in Waco, leading Baylor to a blowout win and scooping up Big 12 Player of the Week honors in the process. The numbers? Could have come from another #10:
  
  11 rushes, 217 yards, 19.7 per attempt, 2 TDs
  7-15 passing, 129 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
  
  I could gush again about how much I love Griffin, but in this case I'll let the video do the talking:
  

• Oklahoma State 57  Missouri State 13  [Box / Recap]
  
  Two rushers averaging 9+ yards per carry last week apparently wasn't enough for Oklahoma State, as they upped that to three rushers who averaged over 10 yards per carry this Saturday. Keith Toston (11 carries, 148 yards, 1 TD), Beau Johnson (13-138, 2), and Kendall Hunter (11-132, 2) combined to anchor a Cowpoke rushing attack which amassed 492 yards rushing on just 56 carries for an eye-popping 8.0 yards per carry.
  
  "But... but... it was Missouri State!" I can hear you object. Remain skeptical all you like, but consider this before you totally waive off the accomplishment.
  
  
• Texas Tech 43  SMU 7 [Box / Recap / Blog Coverage]
  
  A week after an ugly night in Reno, Graham Harrell delivered the kind of performance we've come to expect (31-48, 418 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INT) in helping lead the Red Raiders to an easy win over the visiting Ponies. Nice as that was for Tech fans to see, the silly passing numbers aren't nearly important as Mike Leach's commitment to the running game, which was exceptionally productive on Saturday to the tune of 194 yards on 27 carries (6.7 per attempt). Texas Tech's offense is always tricky to defend, but it's truly nightmarish to defend when the running game is grooving. Last season the Red Raiders managed an atrocious 3.1 yards per carry rushing; as their offense became one dimensional, they began to struggle. Though the running game was productive in the early going last year as well, it's so far, so good in 2008.
  

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A weekly report on the weekend of Big 12 football.

THE RUNDOWN

BIG XII SOUTH

• Texas 52  Florida Atlantic 10  [Box / Recap / Blog Coverage]
  
  Had two of their first three drives ended with points instead of turnovers in Longhorn territory, the Owls might have scared Texas fans for a while. FAU worked the 'Horns' youthful secondary over for much of the first two quarters, racking up 245 yards of total offense in six drives before half. Given the talent disparity, any upset bid probably required the Owls to hang close with or take a lead over Texas heading into the break; as it was, they found themselves down 28-10 and Texas slammed the door 24-0 in the second half for a lopsided win. Texas' opponents may want to take note: Will Muschamp is known for his halftime adjustments--ask Urban Meyer, for one--and the smart money says a team which beatsTexas this year does so taking a lead into halftime.
  
  
• Oklahoma 57  Chattanooga 2 [Box / Recap / Blog Coverage]
  
  If a team is going to commit the sin of scheduling a team like Chattanooga, it better drop the hammer with all due force come game time. Yeah, it's sort of like scoring a 100 on the junior high exit exams, but at least where the state of Oklahoma and tests are concerned, I suppose "passed with flying colors" should be appreciated in that context--even metaphorically. The Sooners disposed of UT-C immediately on Saturday evening by scoring touchdowns on each of their first seven drives en route to a 50-0 halftime lead. Quarterback Sam Bradford picked up where he left off last year, tailback Demarco Murray remains the boogey man in my RRS nightmares, and the Chattanooga offense finished with a meager 36 yards of total offense.
  
  
• Wake Forest 41  Baylor 13 [Box / Recap / Blog Coverage]
  
  How badly was Baylor beaten in Art Briles' first game at Baylor? Badly enough that the above box score link will route you over to Wake Forest's official site, since the Baylor athletic portal surreptitiously hides the box score behind a page which never loads. If there was a silver lining on Saturday, however, it had to be the impressive debut of true freshman quarterback Robert Griffin, a four star recruit from Copperas Cove with outrageous athletic talent who entertained offers from the likes of Nebraska and Tennessee before settling on the Bears. The dynamic athlete enrolled in Waco early this spring, allowing him to compete in the Big 12 Track and Field championships over the summer, where he won the 400m hurdles--no fluke for the high school state record holder in both the 110 and 200m hurdle events. If Griffin's athletic prowess wasn't enough, he enters Baylor having graduated from Copperas Cove with a 4.71 GPA, good for seventh in his class. All told, it's enough to make you forget Thursday night's debacle against the Demon Deacons and optimistic about the future.
  
  
• Oklahoma State 39  Washington State 13 [Box / Recap / Blog Coverage]
  
  The Cowboys took on one of the BCS' weaker teams in Seattle this Saturday, but as a good team should they disposed of the Cougars with relative ease, outgaining Washington State 367-196 on the afternoon. Oklahoma State nearly reached the 200 yard mark in rushing on 42 carries, the bulk by sophomore Kendall Hunter (23-119, 2 TDs), while junior quarterback Zac Robinson--who gets overlooked only because of his conference--had a quietly efficient day with his 193 yards passing on 20 completions in 27 attempts. Wazzu's young offense wasn't much of a test, but Cowboys fans have to be pleased to see their defense take care of business on the road, with their secondary (three returning starters) in particular living up to heightened expectations.
  
  
• Texas Tech 49  Eastern Washington 24 [Box / Recap / Blog Coverage]
  
  Heading into his ninth season as the Texas Tech head coach, Mike Leach for the first time has all his ducks in a row, with Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree the two brightest stars among 10 offensive returning starters, as well as eight returnees on defense--the Red Raiders' annual Achilles' heel. From this fan's perspective, the season sets up as an entertaining weekly battle between True Tech Believers and Skeptics, with no real proof on the schedule to settle the score until well into November:
  
  True Tech believers will tell you Defensive Coordinator Ruffin McNeal, who took over the job after the Okie State disaster last season, is the man to get the defense to that seemingly within-reach level where the offense can take care of the rest. Already, though, skeptics are pointing to Tech's opener against 1-AA Eastern Washington as proof that things are as they've always been in West Texas. And back and forth they go:
  
  Believer: "You may wanna put a hold on that eulogy, pardner: Though Eastern Washington managed 24 points and 364 yards of total offense before the game's conclusion, it took them 85 plays to get there. Put another way, the Eagles putted down the field at 4.3 yards per play, a rate which--if sustained over the course of a season--would put Tech in fine company."
  
  Skeptic: "Silly Tortilla: this is how it's done."
  
  Seriously, I'm looking forward to two straight months of this. Outside the annual SEC carnival, there's no more entertaining conference of which to be a fan than the Big XII right now.
  
  
• Arkansas State 18  Texas A&M 14 [Box / Recap / Blog Coverage]
  
  My favorite moment from the hysterical (to me) movie Celtic Pride comes after Dan Akroyd and Daniel Stern's beloved Celtics blow a huge lead and lose at the buzzer in what what would have been a title-clinching Game 6 of the NBA Finals. Sitting in the Boston Garden long after all the other fans have filed out, the two remain too stunned to leave their seats. Finally, Akroyd turns to Stern and says hopefully, "Well, it could be worse... We could be fleeing some third world country, stranded in the ocean on a raft with our families, no food, water, or land in sight."
  
  There's a long pause, with Daniel Stern continuing to stare ahead in visible agony, before he finally processes Akroyd's attempt at consolation and erupts, "I WISH I WAS A BOAT PERSON! They're out in the sun! On a boat! With their family! THEIR TEAM DIDN'T LOSE GAME 6 OF THE FINALS!"
  
  Substitute "at home to Arkansas State" for "Game 6 of the Finals" and you have some idea of what it's like to be a fan of Texas A&M football right now.
  
  

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