Long gone are the days of us discussing the Longhorns as a potential 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament or a #2 finish in the Big XII. What's sad (for us) is that our enthusiasm for this team's potential has not diminished all that much. The team has the pieces to be good, and there have been encouraging signs in the past few weeks to go with all the discouraging ones. This weekend Texas travels to Waco (Friday) before returning home for the final two games of the series against Baylor.

It seems like only yesterday that we were wondering what was wrong with Kyle Russell. Whatever it was, from what the baseball preview  says we think he's figured things out:

After hitting just one home run in 22 games in February and March, KYLE RUSSELL showered the opponents with 12 home runs in 19 games in April. For the month, Russell hit .324 (24-of-74) with two doubles, one triple, 12 home runs and 28 RBI. The month’s onslaught included nine home runs in 12 league games and four two-home games.

Freshman Chance Ruffin has established himself as the Friday starter, and two of Cole Green, Austin Wood, and Big Bird (fresh off his no-no) will round out the weekend rotation. There's no telling which Longhorn team will show up this weekend, but we'd be really happy if it was the good one.

A series win could do wonders for the team's psyche and give it some momentum for the final series against a really good Texas A&M squad.

May 2, 2008
Texas: RHP Chance Ruffin (5-3, 2.27 ERA)
Baylor: RHP Kendal Volz (3-4, 4.19 ERA)

May 3, 2008
Texas: RHP Cole Green (2-4, 4.34 ERA) or LHP Austin Wood (3-2, 5.30 ERA)
Baylor: RHP Shawn Tolleson (4-3, 5.15 ERA)

May 4, 2008
Texas: LHP Austin Wood (3-2, 5.30 ERA) or RHP Kenn Kasparek (3-3, 4.29 ERA)
Baylor: RHP Willie Kempf (6-2, 3.99 ERA)

It hasn't been the easiest year for Texas baseball, but tonight is a great night. Texas pitcher Kenn Kasparek struck out nine, had one walk (HBP) and didn't give up a hit in the first no-no since Adrian Alaniz in 2005. The Horns beat Texas State handily 11-0 behind Big Bird and a huge night from the now hot-hitting Kyle Russell (4-5, HR #13 on the year).

The no-no was the 20th in Texas baseball history.

We'll get to a baseball review of KSU tomorrow (hint: Texas took 2 of 3), but before doing that we wanted to give you some startling information.

Texas is losing the Lone Star Showdown. In case you don't know/care, the Lone Star Showdown was put into place in 2004 to gauge Texas domination over Aggy. Texas won the first two years handily and last year by 2 points.

This year Texas finds itself in a terrible hole, down 7.5 to 8 with just 3 points left in play. A&M has used 6 points from women's sports to build its lead, and is likely going to take the second softball meeting and split outdoor track and field with Texas.

That'll put us at 8.5 to 9.5 with only one sport to play: baseball. Hopefully one of the remaining non-baseball sports can surprise us, but if not then our only hope of retaining this meaningless award may be Augie Garrido and Chance Ruffin.

 Sweed4Heisman asked an interesting question in the comments section of yesterday's baseball recap about whether or not Texas is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament altogether. We started a response there, but realized it was going to be too long so we moved it to the front page.

The answer to both of the questions asked yesterday is yes: the worried thoughts do have merit, and it does seem worse because of the four-game skid and losing six of the last seven. Kirk Bohls has a very thoughtful commentary on the state of the team, which is interestingly linked from the Baton Rouge Advocate in noting the parallels between the high standards that Texas and LSU baseball must live up to simply to reach basic expectations.

But that's not the meat of the question. Several years ago, when the baseball tournament consisted of only 48 teams, we would have said that Texas was in real trouble. But as it is, with 64 teams making the Tournament, as long as Texas can right the ship to the tune of at least .500 ball over the final three weeks they should be fine. Texas sits at 5th place (out of 10) in the Big 12 with an 8-10 conference record and a 23-16 overall mark. By comparison, the 6th place team in the SEC (all 12 schools play baseball) is Tennesee with a 10-8 conference record and a 23-16 overall record, and the 5th place team in the Pac-10 is UCLA at 4-5 and 19-16.

So Texas is right on par with middle-of-the-pack teams in the other two power conferences, and as a general rule each of those three leagues gets at least 6-7 teams in the Tournament. Additionally, Texas is #47 in the ISR and roughly #35 RPI--neither of which will knock the Selection Committee's socks off, but both are comfortably in the top 64. Include in any calculations the fact that the Longhorns play the 14th toughest schedule this year and that the front of their jerseys still say "Texas."

None of that is meant to indicate that it's a sure thing. Finishing the season on the same type of run they're on now will almost certainly keep Texas out. But a spot should be secure with a decent regular season finish and a win or two in the Big 12 Tournament. And (what good is being a fan if you can't live off of hope?) a fantastic finish may be enough to get the 'Horns some consideration to host a subregional as a two-seed because of the great fan support in Austin.

[Note by 40AS, 04/22/08 1:31 PM EDT ] Upon further review, the Strength of Schedule link above is based on preseason information. The link to the ISR rankings shows Texas' current SoS at 32.

Along with all Longhorn baseball fans, we came into this season with the knowledge that 2008 was to be a "rebuilding year," because this young team was going to need to work through its growing pains before becoming a dangerous bunch on the conference and national stages. There is a big difference, though, between knowing that a rebuilding year is coming and following your team during one. This weekend, Oklahoma State was pleased to remind us why the latter is such an excruciating experience. In so doing, they handed Texas its first sweep at the Disch since (are you ready for this?) Nineteen Ninety Six!

Friday: Freshman lefty Chance Ruffin pitched a 10-inning gem but the 'Horns simply couldn't take advantage. Okie State starter Andrew Oliver threw eight spectacular innings of his own as the teams were tied at one after nine innings. The homestanding Longhorns had a shot at scoring the winning run with the bases loaded and two out in the bottom of the ninth, but were unable to pick up the timely hit.  The Cowboys scored in the top of the 11th off of Cole Green in his only frame of work and that was enough for a 2-1 victory.  Still, it was an encouraging beginning to the series as Ruffin was fantastic and Michael Torres tied the all-time UT hitting streak record at 24.

Saturday: The Baby 'Horns managed to one-up themselves for heartbreak in Game Two of this series. A one-run loss in extra innings of a pitcher's duel is one thing; giving up four runs over the last two innings to lose by one is a worse thing. Much like Friday night, there were signs that this team is going to be very, very good in the future. Also like Friday night, this game was yet another bit of evidence that they just might not get there this year. Starter Brandon Workman (the third freshman out of three pitchers thus far on the weekend) didn't get out of the first inning and OSU has a 4-0 lead before the first Texas at-bat. Then came the reason for hope: the Longhorns responded with seven unanswered runs, including a four-spot of their own in the bottom of the second. In the process, Torres became Texas' all-time hit streak leader at 25. But with a run in the eighth and another three in the ninth, the Cowboys squeaked by with another one-run win.

Sunday: Kyle Russell hit two home runs, one of which was the 38th ever hit to dead center at UFCUDFF. Jordan Danks had nine bases in four at-bats (three doubles and a triple). Texas staked itself to an 8-2 lead after five innings. And Oklahoma State won. The Longhorn pitchers gave up 11 unanswered runs with three in the fifth, five in the eighth, and three more in the ninth. Two runs in the bottom of the frame was far too little, too late. Adding insult to injury, Torres' streak came to an end.

So let's review: Texas lost an emotional extra-inning pitcher's duel, blew a very late three-run lead, and blew a six-run lead all in the same weekend. Signs of great things to come were plentiful but signs of greatness right now were just a little bit too scarce.

Pitcher of the Series: This has to be Ruffin, who gave a courageous effort in a tough loss.

Hitter of the Series: It was Torres who made history, and his streak was one of the biggest stories of the season.

Kiddie Corpsman of the Series: Chance Ruffin's performance was so good, he gets both awards.

Next Up: The Longhorns head to Waco for a non-conference game against conference foe Baylor (a preview of the conference series May 2 through 4), host UTSA on Wednesday, and travel to the Little Apple for a three-game set against K-State this weekend.

Chance Ruffin has gone 9 innings, but Texas has only managed a Preston Clark solo homer. Right now the score is 1-1 heading to the bottom of the 9th. Ruffin threw only 91 pitches, gave up just the one run (it was earned), striking out six.

In other news, sounds like a number of players may be dismissed from the baseball team. This info comes straight from Orangebloods ($$$). We won't comment on it other than to acknowledge the rumor until we hear from Augie.

Update [2008-4-18 21:21:54 by 40AS]: Torres singles to start off the inning, tying UT's hitting streak record at 24. Danks pops up the bunt, so runner at 1st with 1 out.

Update [2008-4-18 21:23:54 by 40AS]: Moldenhauer singles up the middle and Torres moves up to 3rd. Runners on the corner still 1 out. Kawika Emsley-Pai in for his biggest ABs since the Stanford series.

Update [2008-4-18 21:27:25 by 40AS]: K E-P strikes out swinging. Kyle Russell will be intentionally walked to bring up Kyle Lusson. Lusson grounds out, we'll give a final update when the game's over.

Update [2008-4-18 22:10:05 by 40AS]: Horns give up a run in the top of the 11th and go in order in the bottom. It's a tough loss. If there's any good to come out of this it's that Chance Ruffin is awesome. 10 innings, 104 pitches, 6 hits, 1 run. Simply amazing.

From here on out every series is critical. Despite a pair of homers from Kyle Russell (that's 9 on the year now), Texas dropped its midweek game to UT-Arlington 4-3. The Horns have actually played pretty well in these patsy midweek games, so the loss to UTA brings no concern (other than the fact that Big Bird continues to suck).

Winning 2 of 3 this weekend is a must, and a sweep would be super. Augie is clearly switching up his pitching rotation, trying to find one that works. Freshman sensations Chance Ruffin and Brandon Workman will start Friday and Saturday. Regular Friday starter Austin Wood has now been relegated to Sunday.

Some notes ahead of the weekend:

Kyle Russell has HRs in 5 of the last 8 games and is within 8 HRs of tying the UT career record.

One Longhorn is within a hit of tying the longest hitting streak in UT history. At the risk of jinxing him, we've included below all 9 UT starters and their hitting streaks and let you decide who it is:

Torres, Michael -- 23
Danks, Jordan -- 1
Belt, Brandon -- 0
Moldenhauer, Russell -- 0
Russell, Kyle -- 2
Clark, Preston -- 0
Rupp, Cameron -- 0
Hernandez, David -- 2
Tucker, Travis -- 0

April 18, 2008 -- 6:00 PM
Texas: RHP Chance Ruffin (4-2, 2.01 ERA)
Oklahoma State: LHP Andrew Oliver (3-2, 2.50 ERA)

April 19, 2008 -- 2:00 PM
Texas: RHP Brandon Workman (4-2, 4.28 ERA)
Oklahoma State: LHP Tyler Lyons (6-2, 2.95 ERA)

April 20, 2008 -- 1:00 PM
Texas: LHP Austin Wood (2-2, 5.36 ERA)
Oklahoma State: RHP Tyler Blandford (3-3, 6.35 ERA)

Your team has been destroyed by a combined 44-14 over the first two games of a series. You're a freshman with 3 starts to your name. You're next in line for a start. What do you do?

If you're Chance Ruffin, you step up.

Germans?

According to today's AAS, Ruffin showed some leadership on Sunday. According to the now streaking Kyle Russell:

"He was fired up, and he told us that he was going to go out and do his job, and he wanted us to back him up. He said he didn't care about the outcome, he just wanted everybody to know that he was going to be at his best."

And from the horse's mouth:

"For a long time I figured it wasn't a freshman's job to step up and say something," said Ruffin, who had his longest outing of the season. "So I didn't. But I couldn't wait anymore. I couldn't sit back.

"I was (expletive) off. I figured I would say something, and if everybody hated me after that, well, then they hated me."

We've thought this team has lacked the leadership of previous title teams, and if it has to come from a freshman than so be it. Texas has an easy week this week, with only the one midweek game. Okie State travels to Austin on Friday, and we should see soon enough if Texas can turn the proverbial corner.

We went to our first Texas-OU football game as sophomores in 2003. We don't need to remind you how much of a slaughter that game was, but we took two positives away as we left the game.

1. A freshman named Vince Young had the craziest run we'd ever seen.

2. We got to leave in the 3rd quarter.

This weekend in Missouri, the Texas baseball team put up the two worst performances we can recall a Texas team putting up. The Friday and Saturday performances were so bad that we're too humiliated to post anything but the 9-2 victory on Sunday. Being the eternal optimists that we are, we found three positives coming from this weekend:

1. A freshman named Chance Ruffin could be a very good Sunday starter this season.

2. Kyle Russell is back (4 HR this weekend, 7 on  the season).

3. We didn't have to watch. One of us had a work retreat and the other had a bike ride event.

The win on Sunday meant all is not lost, but we're hanging on by a thread here. At 8-7 Texas must now fight for 3rd in the conference. At 23-12 and 17 games left, we're guessing the Horns need to go on a serious tear to even have a chance of hosting a regional series. The schedule doesn't get any easier from here on out, with a huge weekend series against Okie State next weekend in Austin. A series win would be great, a sweep could be huge.

The only Texas team to win fewer than 19 conference games since 2002 won a national title (2005 went 16-10). We've been saying all year that this team is capable of great things, but we won't really know until June if that's true. As with the rest of you that follow Texas baseball, this weekend has us questioning the wisdom of that belief.

Austin Wood continues to alternate between brilliance and badness (for lack of a better word), Kenn Kasparek has been bypassed in the rotation, Kyle Walker hasn't gotten a meaningful inning since Stanford, Stayton Thomas has struggled of late, Michael Torres continues to swing a hot bat but looks like Chuck Knoblauch trying to field 2B, and the team now has one pitcher (1) out of the nine (9) that have thrown 10+ innings with an ERA below 3.

We love baseball because statistics usually tell a large part of a team's story, so does that sound like the story of an elite team?

We still remain confident that this team has the talent to make an Omaha run, but we'll be the first to admit that talent alone does not a champion make.

Texas heads to Columbia this weekend for a huge series with #8 Missouri. The Tigers (23-8, 5-4) feature the best starting pitching staff that Texas will probably see all season. Aaron Crow and Ian Berger have the #1 and #2 ERAs in the Big XII and Sunday starter Kyle Gibson is #10.

Mizzou is, however, a middle of the road offensive team, evidenced by their 25 runs in the last 6 conference games. The Tigers have scored 3 or fewer runs 8 times this season (compared to 4 times for the Horns), but the pitching has been so good that they are 5-3 in those games. Getting ahead early Friday and Saturday could be the difference between a winning series and one that we won't enjoy quite so much.

Of critical importance, Augie has decided to switch up the Horns pitching rotation. Freshmen sensations Brandon Workman and Chance Ruffin will get the biggest starts of their young careers. Ruffin pitched 6 scoreless innings last week (3 on Saturday, 3 on Tuesday), giving up just 1 hit and 1 walk. Brandon Workman was fantastic on Sunday, giving up 1 run on 2 hits over 6.1 innings. If these two can become the weekend starters we think they can, Texas immediately becomes a threat for Omaha again.

The other issue is the defense. Every time we think it's getting better, BANG, a 5 error game. Travis Tucker has been back at third and Michael Torres at second, but if Texas can't even get mediocre defense from these two then Augie will be hard pressed no to sit them.

Texas probably won't sweep this weekend. A series win though, especially one that features a win on Friday, would be a very good thing for the Horns. Taking two of three would put Texas at 9-6 with sweepable series versus Oklahoma State, Baylor and Kansas State coming up, and could lead to much bigger things.

To sum up: big weekend ahead.

PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUPS
April 11, 2008 -- 6:30 PM
Texas: LHP Austin Wood (2-2, 4.46 ERA)
Missouri: RHP Aaron Crow (7-0, 0.69 ERA)

April 12, 2008 -- 2:00 PM
Texas: RHP Brandon Workman (4-1, 3.16 ERA)
Missouri: RHP Ian Berger (3-1, 0.81 ERA)

April 13, 2008 -- 1:00 PM
Texas: RHP Chance Ruffin (3-2, 1.73 ERA)
Missouri: RHP Kyle Gibson (5-0, 2.84 ERA)